Airasia, Maybank Call Warrant

More call warrants? Why no put warrants? Please be more balance, for every call, issue a put.

New call warrants from KIBB that will be listed 7 Sept 2009:

New Warrants	Expiration	Type	Ex Price	Ratio
AIRASIA-CH	3/9/2010	Call	MYR 1.4200	2 : 1
MAYBANK-CM	3/9/2010	Call	MYR 6.4000	8 : 1

Call Warrant (AirAsia, AMMB, Gamuda, Genm, TM)

5 new call warrants from OSK that will be listed on 27 Aug 2009:

• AirAsia-CG (Call, 25/08/2010, MYR1.38, 2 to 1)
• AMMB-CF (Call, 25/08/2010, MYR4.00, 6 to 1)
• Gamuda-CJ (Call, 25/08/2010, MYR3.00, 4 to 1)
• Genm-CM (Call, 25/08/2010, MYR2.60, 4 to 1)
• TM-CJ (Call, 25/08/2010, MYR3.00, 4 to 1)
  

HSBC, IOICorp and Engtex

HSBC Daily Chart

HSBC is not moving as I expected. I guess it needs more time for base building. I have no choice but to cut my losses in the CW.

IOICorp Daily Chart

IOICorp is giving too many black candles. The upmove corresponds with low volume. If it is going to go up again, then it must build up another base at around 4.50. I sold off half of my CW position and hopefully the other half is not threatened.

Engtex Weekly Chart

Engtex looks interesting. The movement looks nice on the weekly chart. Can it break the downtrend line? Weekly RSI says there is a chance. I do hope so as I'm already long in it.

Marching towards 1000

Yippee!  Stocks are moving higher! Who cares when the world is in a severe recession. Everyone is making money. Well, we need the money when we lose our job. Anyhow, take note of May 4, 2009. This is the date that the US bank stress test will be announced. Roubini says that thebanks are already insolvent. So, how will those in power massage the stress test result to make it look good?

AMMB Daily Chart

I am out of AMMB CW because AMMB is trading almost at the upper level of the channel and it is very overbought. I'm still holding my plantations and waiting patiently for them to move. I don't know why are the plantations not moving when CPO is ripping higher. Sigh! I think that CPO run is nearing the end. So, please IOICorp and KLK, move now or missed the chance!

KLCI is at an extremely overbought condition now.  It is not wise to succumb to your feeling and enter now. The train may have left the station but there are other stops for us to board. 

AMMB

AMMB Daily Chart

AMMB may have broken out from a symmetrical triangle. Looks like there is a rising channel. Will it become a rising flag eventually? Upper channel is at around 3.00. The downtrend line is at around 3.20. I think that AMMB-CC is a good vehicle to ride this if I can get a good entry position.

Four New CW

KLCI-CE, HKEX-C8, SIME-CE and BURSA-CK will be listed on 28 Apr 08. All are in the money. Maybe a good trade for rebound play. Let's see how it opens this Monday morning. I'll wait for a few days of data before deciding. If I use moving average, I'll need at least 7 trading days to read the market sentiment. If I don't follow my technical readings, then I'll based the trade on my feelings, and most of the time, my feelings are bullish bias. That is not good.

Trading CWs

So many CWs, will the quantity make it less valuable? My trade are all consist of CWs now. No more Mesdaq or penny shares. When the bulls come, it will be like heaven! Of course when the bears come, it will be like hell.

Anyway, my weekly filter says the following are bullish:
KLSE: Bjtoto, Bursa, IOICorp, Maybank, PBBank and TM
HKSE: MTR, Sinopec, Chmobil

I can't find an entry point for Bursa. Missed my chance, so I will forget about it. For Maybank, it has just come out of downtrend, so I will wait for the base building first before deciding on it. In IOICorp case, I sold out this one, and cannot find a good reentry point.

For the HKSE counters, I only like Sinopec as it gives the best signal among the 3. For MTR, the premium for the CW is quite high. No way I'm getting into it. MTR looks interesting and continues to go up. It is overbought, maybe I can still get into MTR-C1.

It's very volatile this few days, one day up, one day down. I think the best is to enter a little bit. You must realize, it's festivity time. When people are happy, they will be careless with their money and will end up with buy buy buy.

1st Tier Moving Now

Looks like the big boys are making a move now:

TM: Broke out from strong resistance at 11.00.
Tenaga: Ended it's downtrend.
YTLPower: Broke out from channel.
Maybank: Still in base building.
Commerz: Range bound trading (10.10 to 11.50)
Genting: Range bound trading (7.50 to 8.50)
Resorts: At lower end of channel. Looks like going back up.
Bursa: Still under correction.
YTL: To challenge 9.00.
IJM: Base building at 8.00

This could be the beginning of the year-end rally.

Bull vs Bear (27 Sept 2007)

Bull vs Bear

Bull won! From this action and the KLCI chart, looks like the index is heading to 1400. I'm looking out for the following bluechips:
Genting: If can close above 8.20, then confirm break medium term downtrend channel.
Resorts: looks like going to challenge the upper channel at 4.50.
Plus: Broken medium term downtrend channel. Looking for a reasonable entry point.
PBBank: Looks like going to break 10.00
MISC: Broken medium term downtrend channel. Not sure about the strength.
IOICorp: 1st attempt at above 6.00 failed. Another attempt again?
KLK: Broken medium term downtrend channel. Looking on how is the possible correction going to be.
Gamuda: Challenging 9.00. Waiting for the appropriate time to enter (if any).

In addition to that, I notice that the steel players are moving now: Kinsteel, Masteel and Ornasteel.

This week, I opened new position in IOICorp-CE, Kretam-WA, Masteel and Singtel-C1. Hopefully no bad news to scare us anymore until CNY.

PBBank

Is PBBank coming? The first chart is PBBank-01 while the second is PBBank. PBBank chart is not pretty as it shows weekly bearish divergence and the MACD is going into negative zone. However, at look at PBBank-01 which only the foreigners can buy tells a different story. The weekly RSI bearish divergence has been broken (as of Thursday) and the MACD is going back into positive zone. So, will PBBank follow?

Based on this argument, PBBank could follow PBBank-01, I have taken a tiny position in PBBank-CC as it has the longest lifetime (premium and gearing are all almost the same for the 3 CWs: CA/CB/CC). Hopefully this works out.

AMMB, KLK, Kretam, BJtoto

The first loss is the best loss! Cut KLK-CC and BJToto-CA, Take profit on Kretam-WA. Reenter AMMB-CA. Is plantation play over?

I don't understand, counters that I cut quickly will rebound up as quick. Counters that I delayed cutting, will continue going down. This makes my actions inconsistent. Must be more discipline. One way is for me to aware of my emotion. If I have a "hope" for a rebound, that means really bad.

Bjtoto, MISC, KLK, Kretam, Ranhill, Commerz

Mix result for this week. Bjtoto and MISC refuse to break new high. Still waiting. KLK makes another attempt, so my KLK-CC is above water now. Kretam makes a surprise move today. Anymore to go? I got out of Ranhill as I have interpreted the price/volume action will lead to consolidation. I don't want to sit it out. Anyhow, I got back in Commerz-CC as Commerz looks strong indeed.

Looks like the market has decoupled from external events. The number of bullish counters based on my definition keeps increasing since 31 May. Is everyone feeling happy because Abdullah is getting married? Happiness means people are more willing spend, so more buying to come?

AMMB

Still trying to break the record high of 4.22. Strong buying by some big fund during the day but it disappeared suddenly towards the close. The weekly MACD bearish divergence may have been broken but this can only be confirmed if the price closes above 4.22.

I took another position in AMMB-CA hoping that the selling force at 4.22 will dissipate by the end of this week.

AMMB & Samudra

Wrong analysis on Commerz. Or is it my stop was too tight? Another missed opportunity.

I'm in AMMB-CA now. The rational is AMMB may break old high of 4.22. Daily chart all turns up. Long term is still in uptrend. Hopefully, 0.155 was the bottom of AMMB-CA.

The bulls are pushing Samudra again. Another false rally? Luck is not with me for this counter.

Volume is getting lower each day. Time to read books to improve oneself.

Commerz, TM & L&G

Got stop out with Commerz-CC & TM-CC. Commerz got sell down even good result. Not a good sign. For L&G, I decided to sell all. Trap for 4 years, story ends today. Just manage to earn a little bit.

Commerz

Wah lau eh. Look at Commerz latest result. Superb. I don't know much about accounting, so not sure what is inside. Anyway, I think that Commerz price will overtake Maybank soon. Does this means that Commerz is going to replace Maybank as the leader in the banking industry?

Commerz

Trading at all time high. Will it go higher?

There are 3 CWs that are available. Commerz-CA, Commerz-CB and Commerz-CC. Commerz-CA gearing is low. So out. Between Commerz-CB and Commerz-CC, I choose Commerz-CC because of it's much better daily technical indicators. A possible uptrend in formation. The premium is reasonable as the expiration date is in October. Thus, I took an initial half position and will add if the indicators will close positively for the week.