Bull vs Bear (5 Sept 2007)

Bull vs Bear

A bigger jump in the number of bulls vs bears. Is it time to buy? I think this depends on your personality and the type of system that you are using.

KLCI Daily Chart

The daily chart shows that all downtrend have been broken. Indicating the worst is over. But it is just under 1300 and also the maximum Fibonacci level for a rebound. So depending on your system, you could be selling or buying. Remember, for every trade, one side is bull and the other side is bear. Each side will see different things.

KLCI Weekly Chart

I prefer the longer term weekly chart. Not that much noise, that means less trade to perform. As one can see, it is still considered to be in consolidation (bull scenario). It could also mean bearish rally (bear scenario). The signals all are contradicting each other.

As the chart has no clear answers, that means I don't know whether the bull or the bear is stronger. That's why I choose to stay sideline.

This write up is to show that technical analysis is just a tool, interpreting and executing will require experience.

Bull vs Bear (4 Sept 2007)

Bull vs Bear

No significant change. Waiting for US to show guidance?

Bull vs Bear (3 Sept 2007)

Bull vs Bear

Same story as last session. Bulls up, bears down.

Bull vs Bear (30 Aug 2007)

Bull vs Bear

Bulls still gaining. Bears are disappearing. Immediate term does not indicate a strong rally yet.

Bull vs Bear (29 Aug 2007)

Bull vs Bear

Bulls and bears both increase. Hmmm..... what does this mean? Gap at 1255 has been covered. Volume traded continues to reduce. Since the ghost festival is over, hopefully we can have a better market. But 3rd quarter is generally a bad one for stocks. I think it is better to just watch and shake leg.

Bull vs Bear (28 Aug 2007)

Bull vs Bear

Daily and weekly bears continue to reduce but at a slower rate. Bulls are still hiding but the numbers are increasing. Monthly bulls is more than bears, so long term trend is still up.

This is just another way of looking at the market. At least it is not manipulated by any last minute push ups.

Bull vs Bear (27 Aug 2007)

Bull vs Bear

The bulls are gaining ground. Play has rotated from oil&gas, to IDR to HK CW. Bluechips, finance, plantation and mesdaq are still consolidating.

I will try to post the chart daily. A few things to note:
1. I only clean my database once a few weeks, so some delisted counter will be included in the statistic until I have have deleted it.
2. I depend on www.bizfun.cc for the share split/repayment adjustment. So a bull may become a bear until I have made the necessary adjustment.

Bull vs Bear (24 Aug 2007)

Bull vs Bear

My Excel chart goes haywire when I install the Office 2007 compatibility pack. I hate it the environment that I'm so used to it are changed.

Anyway, the chart shows that the bearish counters has dropped tremendously. Based on my reading of the weekly technical chart, I think that we are heading for a "Budget rebound" since the weekly chart still shows bearishness.

KLCI (23 Aug 2007)

KLCI Daily Chart

Strong rebound. Gap at 1255-1270. For long term uptrend to continue, the index must shoot pass 1300 and then consolidate and built up another based at 1300.

Current resistant is at around 1300 (many trend lines intersect there). I'm still staying sideline due to the bearish divergence in the weekly chart and also no good buy signal from my filter. Looking out the behaviour of the index when it reaches 14-day RSI value 60. If it cannot break this value, then it indicate that the bear has set up an ambush.

Mind the Gap

Strong rebound indeed. I still don't have any buy signal. So I'm still staying sideline. My indicators just don't work when the volatility is high. Anyway, there is a big gap at 1255-1270.

I'm monitoring the China listed CWs.Hopefully I can hop into a few.

KLCI (17 Aug 2007)

Daily chart is shown. Just manage to close above the uptrend line that was formed from 900. Long shadow hammer may indicate a rebound. This will be confirmed with a white candle. If a rebound happens, the upper resistance will be around 1250. With everything so oversold, I am expecting a rebound. But the weekly indicators are really bad, so the rebound should be weak. Technically, the uptrend is still intact if one view from the monthly chart.

Worst is Over?

I got a feeling that the worst is over. The monthly 20EMA has provided a support (typo in my previous post). Hopefully nobody is in panic anymore. Tried to buy Kencana, cannot get. Looking for other battered counters.

DJI

Dow goes down and down. HK, Malaysia and other markets follow. I guess everyone is seeing ghost now. Did anyone remember the prediction made by Tuo Pek Kong during CNY in Penang. Mann...bulls eye.

When will DJI stabilizes? Looking at the chart, it has broken the weekly uptrend line. The next major support can be obtained from the monthly chart and it is around 12100. So still a long way to go.

Maybe it the spirit of Malaysia Boleh, we can stabilize at 1200.

Short

My bull vs bear chart is shown. From the daily numbers, the bear outnumber the bull by 27 to 1.

Too bad that in Bursa Malaysia, there is mostly one way play. That is to buy and sell higher. The other way, to sell and buy lower is not available to most of the people. Well, technically one can short, but I don't know the process well, furthermore, the cost of doing this is not cheap. An alternative is to play the KLCI futures. Hmm...I have done that a few years back, did badly, the psychological scar is still in me.

What can I do but to sit and watch. The "consolidation" is not yet completed.

HWGB

Is it going to be pushed up? So many false start, will this for real? Downtrend channel resistance at around 0.34. I think that the play will be confirmed if it can close above 0.28.

KLCI (10 Aug 2007)

Weekly chart shown. Stochastic shows that it still have room to go down. If it closes below 1284, the next support will be at 1143 (monthly 30EMA line). This value is too extreme. Hopefully I'm wrong. The best thing one can do is to sit and watch what happens when the weekly stochastic is oversold or weekly 14RSI is around the 40s. Theoretically, if the bull is still alive, the index should u-turn at around 40s level for the weekly 14RSI.

CI (3 Aug 2007)

Weekly chart shown. Weekly RSI uptrend broken. Bearish RSI divergence detected. Parabolic SAR says sell. This week, CI found support at the 20EMA. Based on my theory, if this is broken, then expect it to go to 30EMA (currently at 1284). I'm expecting this to happen as the daily RSI has penetrated the 40 level and the daily stochastic is not oversold yet. Currently, the chart does not show any sign that the bottom has been found.

This consolidation may take up to 2-4 months to clear (if bull is strong). I am looking to resume business only for year-end window dressing or CNY rally or election rally.

KLSE Bull vs Bear

The chart shows the number of bulls vs bears (based on my definition) using different period filter. It's ain't pretty.

Extreme Pessimism

Since the day I kept records for the up/down ratio:
27 Feb 2007 Up = 42, Down = 1123. This is the day the index starts the correction from 1273 to 1090.

5 Mar 2007 Up = 42, Down = 1110. This is the day the index touches 1090 and recovers to 1392.

1 Aug 2007 Up = 57, Down = 1032.

Only two samples. No conclusion.

Support & Resistance

Okaylah, let me clarify a little bit how I view support and resistance since there were some comments on it.

Actually, I do not really look at vertical support and resistance. What I look at is EMA support and resistance. This will give me the confidence to either stay with the trend or get out. The best one is to look at weekly EMA, but this requires a strong psychology to stand deep correction (I'm not quite good at this).

Next I look at the curve of the EMA, the best curve (which I intepret it as strong trending) is when all of the different time period moves up from a single point. The tighter the point, the better. I learned this technique from Daryl Guppy. So, even if the singular point is near the vertical resistance, I still go in. However, I will not go in if it is under the weekly trendline.

I'm not doing well this pass month because I was too eager to place a trade. This is a discipline problem. To add salt to my wound, the movement of stocks are too fast. They go up very fast, they go down very fast. So I have problem managing my position. I am back to my old ways now, that is to wait for the perfect set up before entering. Concerning the method to manage my position, I'm still searching.

KLCI weekly chart

Hmm....I'm pretty a laggard person. I always detect a trend when it is too late.....it is probably cause by the lagging indicators that I emphasis on.No good, no good. MACD goes deeper into negative territory. RSI shows downtrend. Stochastic is still in overbought but weakening. EMA still mean bull but the bull is tired. With weakness in Dow Jones, the bears should be able to push down more easily as the bulls are having a confident crisis.

Conclusion: I will avoid buying index component stocks and if I am in in any but without profit, then I will believe that it is better get out first to protect capital.

Analysis Sektor: Papan Kedua

Sudah lama tidak tulis dalam Bahasa Malaysia. Nampaknya penguasaan Bahasa saya sudah koyak. Mungkin sudah lama tak baca Berita Harian atau Dewan Masyarakat. Macam mana ni, bulan Merdeka, mestilah cuba sikit untuk menunjukkan semangat patriotik saya.
Carta harian menampakan kelemahan jangka pendek kerana MACD sudah masuk ke zon negatif. Mungkin sokongan pada tahap 114 (EMA30 - garis coklat)

Carta mingguan menunjukkan kemungkinan kelemahan pada kaunter-kaunter papan kedua. Lilin doji bermakna lembu jantan dan beruang sama kuat. Belum pasti lagi. Minggu depan akan tahu.

Menuju ke carta bulanan pula, ia menunjukkan lembu jantan masih gagah. Tahap RSI di lingkungan 60an bermakna lembu jantan ini masih lagi ada tenaga bergerak ke atas. Tetapi masih ada 2 hari lagi ke akhir bulan. Jadi intepretasi ini masih belum muktamat.

Kesimpulan: Masih lagi boleh main kaunter-kaunter papan kedua. Tetapi mesti berwaspada. Dow Jones jatuh lagi 200 mata, apa akan terjadi pada minggu depan?

Plus

Plus is still moving up to challenge the previous high. Can it or not break? Plus-CA is about 10 cents undervalue. That is why I jump into Plus-CA.

Spolymr & Hil

Got out of Spolymr due to the miscalculated Spolymr/Supermx arbitrage value. Also got out of Bjtoto-CA and TM-CC.

Hil looks stronger than I expected. So got back in.

Still riding on Ftec and Oilcorp.

BOC

Looks like a possible new uptrend is in the making. That is why I added BOC-C1.

Supermx & Spolymr II

I'm in back in Spolymr. I got only until 31 Jul to play this counter. 50% acceptance received by Supermx. Suddenly, Supermx price has broken a new high. So theoretically, Spolymr should worth about 16 cents more (based on Supermx current price of 2.66). Hopefully, this is not a one day event and Supermx can maintain the uptrend.

I'm hoping that some fund manager will play this arbitrage opportunity.

ICBC

Daily chart is shown. Looks like a possible uptrend channel is in the making. That is why I'm loading up with ICBC-C1. News report of possible 50% increase in profit. That explains the gap on the 10th of July. The gap is covered now. If can break the previous high of 5.22, then this could be a possible wave 3.

Increase turnover

Oh boy, my turnover increases substantially in the last 2 months. My brokers must be really happy. I have exited Hil but failed to exit Ngiukee-WA. Concerning Cresbldr-WA, luckily I got half out, it looks like it is back to square-one from my entry price. Still waiting for the right moment to enter (if there is one).

New counters that I bought last week are Hovid and HWGB. HWGB is another of my dark losses. This is so called fundamental share that I bought due to the recommendation of GKGoh 3 years ago. However, due to their disastrous adventure in Cambonia, the share just goes down and down. That is why I don't trust fundamental analysis that much. Since I can't and don't know how to do it properly, I just gave up doing it.

Historical Data

Bursa Malaysia counters historical data can now be accessed from Yahoo. They have from 2000 onwards. Looks like their are reestablished their support which they discontinued 4 years back. Does this indicate that we are back into the international spotlight?

Mix Management Result

Took profit on my Perisai because I bought too high from the base. So if there is any correction, I will be in a vulnerable position. Also took half profit for my Crestbld-wa because of the gap price. It has since covered it. Still looking.

I have yet again mismanage my position. A clash of long term view with short term analysis. What am I going to do with my TM-CC & Bjtoto-CC? Still trying to figure out from my journal what really happened in me.

Yesterday, I decided to buy Resorts-CC. But made the mistake of putting a limit order. I think that if you need to rush and grab for something, it is a sign of strong up move. Come to think of, most of my limit order position are just sitting or moving slowly. It is not bad, but not the swiftness that I'm looking for. Guess that sometimes I'm impatience.

Okay, I will do the following next time:

1. Limit order during consolidation of a up move.
   
2. Market order for up move in progress.

BOC

HKSE BOC got a big pushtoday. Downtrend, off course brokenlah. Daily chart is overbought. Weekly RSI is in the 60s. How much can it go? I have entered a small position in BOC-C1 because with this surge, BOC-C1 is in the money now.

Ngiukee

A break of downtrend? All weekly indicators are currently up. It's only Tuesday, so 3 more days to go for confirmation. My interest lies in the warrant. It's one of my dark losses. Don't ask me why I'm still hanging. Maybe to remind myself of ones vulnerability.

2nd Board

I cannot believe it. I didn't notice the 2nd board index because my attention was glued to the bluechips CW. The chart shows that it is rising steadily. Daily and weekly charts are of course overbought, but the monthly says that it still have energy.

Hil

I think that there is a trading potential for this counter. The daily RSI is in the 60s. Looks like making a wave 3. The weekly charts all pointing up. What is left is the monthly indicators, but they are slowly reversing to point up.

CIMB vs OSK CW

Ok...I must admit I am still learning in trading foreign CWs. I didn't have time to think about it until today concerning the effect of currency on the CW price. Oh, my normal day job keeps me busy from thinking properly. Furthermore, I didn't consider this problem until when I face 2 choices of CW: CIMB or OSK?

To win, one need to know the direction of the underlying share. Bull or bear?

The next factor to be considered is the direction of the currency.

CIMB CW's strike price are in MYR while OSK's are in HKD. There is big difference between these two. If MYR strengthens against HKD, that means CIMB's CWs strike price increases in terms of HKD. Well, if the underlying share price remains unchanged, that means the CIMB CW's price must go down! If MYR weakens against HKD, that means CIMB's CWs strike price decreases in terms of HKD, so if the underlying share price remains unchanged, that means the CIMB CW's price must go up.

Conclusion:

1. If HKD strengthens against MYR, buy CIMB CWs
2. If HKD weakens against MYR, buy OSK CWs

Anyway, the currency effect can be ignored if the movement of the underlying share price is substantial as compared to the currency movement.

ChinaLife

ChinaLife has broken the HKD30.00 barrier and closed at a new high. Daily and weekly indicators are overbought. Big surge today. Chlife-C1 may be starting to form an uptrend. I have taken an initial position on Chlife-C1 today.

ICBC

Look at HK shares, ramming every records. Too bad I only keep track of Petroch.

Well, my next target is ICBC. It looks like the downtrend has been broken and the gap price has been closed.

I wanted to buy ICBC-C1 since it has given me a buy signal. But as ICBC-C3 is listed today and it is trading a 1 cent lower, I bought it instead as I think that it is mispriced by the market. Anyhow, I'm still looking for the formula to calculate the theorectical price of a warrant.

Latest fashion in town

The latest fashion in town is the Hong Kong listed CW.

I know one can get free historical data from Yahoo. But to do it manually is too tedious. So I discover this tool called Yahoo Historical Quotes Downloader. Oh...i know of this tool long time ago. The first version that I used was a Java version that requires one to type the command in DOS prompt. Not user friendly at all. That's how my friend got the KLSE data from Yahoo before they discontinue the services. The next version that I tried comes with a GUI, unfortunately, it didn't work. I don't know why. But the latest version works almost perfectly. The free version allows you to download only 100 tickers at one time. So for HKEx, just repeat it a few times to get the complete database.

For daily updates, just go to eoddata to get it free.

So, to do TA on HK shares, get the ticker list from eoddata. Use the ticker list to download the historical data from Yahoo. Their data starts from year 2000. So its sufficient to do TA.

Not only that, you can also get SGX daily shares data. Okay, only one CW from SGX. Maybe it there will be more.

Petroch

I think I made a mistake of assuming that Petroch-C1 and Petroch-C3 should trade at the same premium. I forgot to take into account the expiration date of these CWs. Because of this flawed assumption, I have changed from Petroch-C1 to Petroch-C3 due to the perceived mispriced of the CW. Currently, Petroch-C3 is lagging the movement of Petroch-C1.

Perisai

Perisai looks interesting. Depending on how you draw the downtrend line (weekly chart above), you could interpret it as the downtrend line has been broken or maybe not. A look at the RSI shows that the weekly downtrend RSI has been broken (no ambiguity here). Furthermore, the RSI value is in the 60s. I interpret this as bullish development. Most probably the 27 months of consolidation is over.


The daily chart shows that it is overbought but the RSI has been able to make a higher high. Possible pullback should be expected as indicated by the long shadow candle.

Sliding Temporary Halted?

The KLCI technicals is bad. Unless some miracle happens, it will take a few months to recover to the upside (if it happens). It was a busy week for me, I cut almost all my CWs. Only left TM-CC, AMMB-CA and BJToto-CA. For BJToto-CA, I'm betting that the support at around 5.10 should hold. If the market continues to slid, even good shares will also go down. My technical readings also spell trouble for my so called fundamental counters: Notion, Wellcal and Masteel. These counters looks like sinking due to gravity. All are cleared for now. If it ain't going up, why keep and expose yourself to market risk? Cash is king. Anyhow, will reenter if the condition changes (hopefully not sudden change as I will definitely not able to catch the signal if it is too fast.)

All is not lost yet. Ftec seems to be inching 1.5 cents per week. Oilcorp pula looks like go to break to the upside again. So, you see, I'm not selling all out yet.....

High percentage of failure

Looks like for every 2 stocks that I choose, 1 will not work out. Very high rate of failure, huh?

All my finance play not working out. I cannot imagine how did I missed out the property play. Maybe I was paying to much energy on L&G to get out from it. Talking about L&G, I missed the boat, I tried to get in last week but took the unusual way of using limit order. Usually I use market order. Most probably the past still haunts me. What play will be next?

Market ding dong up and down. I think I will leave the bluechips CW for now. The technicals are getting worse. US is not looking good. A double top? Not a good time for election if the market continue behaving like this. The best is maybe the year-end window dressing.

Looking for Oppurtunities

The following is my basic method of looking for trading opportunities using Metastock. Before I continue, I would like to thank the following person for making this possible:
1. SML for providing the Metastock update script and taking the effort to get the data from Yahoo (when it was still available).
2. Swingtrader for teaching me how to write the filter formula.

Okai, lets go to the steps:
1. Set up Metastock filter rules. Mine look like this:
a. Monthly timeframe scan
Mov(CLOSE,3,E) > Mov(CLOSE,7,E) AND MACD() > Mov(MACD(),9,E)

b. Weekly timeframe scan
Mov(CLOSE,3,E) > Mov(CLOSE,7,E) AND Mov(CLOSE,7,E) > Mov(CLOSE,20,E) AND MACD() > Mov(MACD(),9,E)

c. Daily timeframe scan
Mov(CLOSE,3,E) > Mov(CLOSE,7,E) AND Mov(CLOSE,7,E) > Mov(CLOSE,20,E) AND Mov(CLOSE,20,E) > Mov(CLOSE,30,E) AND MACD() > Mov(MACD(),9,E)

2. Copy the result

3. Compare the result with the previous day result

4. Find the differences

5. The differences represents possible trading oppurtunity

Example for CWs
18-Jun-07: BURSA DIGI MPLANT PROTON
19-Jun-07: BJTOTO BURSA DIGI MPLANT PLUS PROTON RHBCAP TM
So on 20 Jun, one may consider trading in BJToto, Plus, RHBCap or TM. This depends on the detail analysis of the stock.

TA vs FA

Technical Analysis vs Fundamental Analysis. Which is better? As I said before, use a method that suits your personality.

Why I use TA instead of FA?

Well, when I first started investing, actually I tried to use FA. First I rely on the FA reports from brokerage houses, then I tried doing it myself. Bought books on how to do that. But the problem is:

1. I have limited time, can you do an analysis on 1300 counters in BM?
2. One cannot rely doing FA from the desk only (i.e. read yearly account statement), you need to talk to the management, competitors etc. Will the management entertain an unknown?
3. Accounting is not my field of expertise. I thought it was debit/credit (as I learned in my Perdagangan class in Form 1-3). But things can get really creative!
   
4. Brokerage houses have access to the management, but they do not always report it objectively. They tend to give a more rosy picture for everything (i.e buys vs sells are a ratio of multiple times).
5. I'm only limited to Malaysian market.

So I switched to TA. TA works if you are discipline and knows the weaknesses. What I have learned from TA:

1. There is no silver bullet. Don't rely only on one indicator. You need to combine them.
2. Use simple indicators because everything are derived from price and volume.
   
3. Don't be short sighted, always look at the bigger picture no matter which time frame you are trading in.
4. Interpretation is an art, you need experience for that. So don't expect quick result in the early stages.

The advantages of using TA is:

1. Your trading is not only limited to Malaysia, humans behave the same all around the world, so your TA technique works in every market.
2. You can trade stock, commodity and currency using TA.
3. Saves you time as TA programs can scan through everything in a few minutes.

That summarizes my opinion about TA vs FA.

PBBank

Is PBBank coming? The first chart is PBBank-01 while the second is PBBank. PBBank chart is not pretty as it shows weekly bearish divergence and the MACD is going into negative zone. However, at look at PBBank-01 which only the foreigners can buy tells a different story. The weekly RSI bearish divergence has been broken (as of Thursday) and the MACD is going back into positive zone. So, will PBBank follow?

Based on this argument, PBBank could follow PBBank-01, I have taken a tiny position in PBBank-CC as it has the longest lifetime (premium and gearing are all almost the same for the 3 CWs: CA/CB/CC). Hopefully this works out.

Spolymr & BJToto

Rebalancing my portfolio. Sold Spolymr as it looks about at the right value based on current Supermx price. I don't want to hold odd lots as happened to my GHLSys.

Took a quick profit on BJToto as I'm a little bit concern with today's candle. Furthermore, I bought at a level where the proper stop was very far from my entry price, i.e. no balls to hang on :p

Telekom is overbought now. Can it break 11.10????

Watch out on Petroch-C3 tomorrow. Those that have subscribe to the CW are technically 70% richer now (based on the given premium for Petroch-C1).

Petroch

I just realized that Petroch is also listed in the NYSE as PTR. Anyway, it has broken new high in HK and NY. Petroch-C1 chart shows that a possible uptrend in the making. That's why I have added another position. Anyhow, just found out the "reason" for the surge. So, my oil play has also become a China play.

All time frame chart for Petroch is at the overbought position now.

TM

Aiyo...left and right buy signal generated. Don't have that much money to buy and to blog during market hours.

Okay, why did I buy TM-CC:
1. Buy signal generated yesterday.
2. All daily indicators positive.
3. Monthly indicators still up.

Risk:
1. Weekly indicators improving but still mix.

My conclusion:
1. Possibly challenging 11.10 again
2. Due to weekly chart intepretation, not sure yet whether it have the power to break 11.10

Possibly a quick trade since TM-CC has almost zero time value with a gearing of 13x (based on OSK 19 June table).

Don't Become A Follower

Many people likes to follow a guru. I just got a message to simply follows Sams recommendation.

Guys/gals, don't you get it? It's not just about winning. It's winning with your capability. Sams himself says his objective is to teach FA. What have you learned from him? He is going to stop blogging after Feb 2008 (as he says it). So, if you don't learn anything, what will you do after that? Can you buy/sell with your own decision?

He likes to boost the superiority of FA. For me, no matter it is a black cat or white cat, as long as the cat can catch mice, then it is a good cat. There is no such thing as FA better then TA or vice versa. It's about something that suits your personality.

Some people uses NA: News Analysis, to see how market reacts to news to buy/sell. Others used SA: Sentiment Analysis.

So there are many techniques, be a master of one technique. Be the master yourself.

BJToto & TM

Hmmm....cut loss in BJToto last week but reenter back again! Got fooled. Finally the breakout came, so fast, so furious, without me in it. How much can it go? Just taking a small position with very tight stop. I was not able to buy yesterday because of whole day involve in a meeting.

TM gave me a buy signal yesterday. So bought TM-CC. Almost zero time value with very high gearing. In essence, high risk, high gain. The reverse is also true.

Got the feeling that the market will go above 1400 and beyond now because the bullish counter (based on my definition) increases in an orderly number.

Crude Oil

My data for crude oil is limited. So all readings is based only on weekly chart.

After consolidating between 60 and 68 region, it seems that it has broken to the upside and ready to rechallenge the previous high of 80.

What does this means? Oil & gas counter should get more fuel to rally. Consumers will most probably suffer. Steep correction in CPO may find support. That's all I can think of.

Not Stock Related

Life is not all about stock market.

An interest article from Tun Hanif Omar appears in The Star today. This got me googled for the source. Damn, as good as Tom Clancy.

FTEC

Everyday high volume. What's up?

Bought it because:
1. All daily indicator goes up.
2. Weekly chart may indicate the end of consolidation.
3. Monthly chart is up.

Risk:
1. Weekly MACD on the verge of going into negative. So everything may also crash.

PetroChina

Okie, I am in the Petroch-C1. My justification:
1. Weekly RSI in 60s, usually will go to the 70s before peaking.
2. All weekly indicators are up.
3. Daily Stochastic just turn up again.

Risk:
1. May cover gap at 9.00 HKD

AMMB, KLK, Kretam, BJtoto

The first loss is the best loss! Cut KLK-CC and BJToto-CA, Take profit on Kretam-WA. Reenter AMMB-CA. Is plantation play over?

I don't understand, counters that I cut quickly will rebound up as quick. Counters that I delayed cutting, will continue going down. This makes my actions inconsistent. Must be more discipline. One way is for me to aware of my emotion. If I have a "hope" for a rebound, that means really bad.

Oilcorp

I don't have any exposure to oil&gas play. Samudra was a lost oppurtunity.

Technically, I think Oilcorp may have good oppurtunity. If you read Samgoss blog, he has been promoting it for the past 2 weeks. I can't just follow blindly, correct? So need to have my own "reasons" :p


My justification for buying:
1. Daily stochastic swinging to the upper region.
2. Daily RSI downtrend broken, this means good chance for the price downtrend to be broken too.
3. Daily MACD going negative positive.

The reading from weekly chart is mix, generally it shows uptrend with consolidation. Anyway, if all daily indicators point up, maybe a good play for a swing to .....(can't put a price target because it will skew my analysis later)

This will be my third play with this counter, 1 good, 1 ok. How about this?

CW not working out

Mine CWs play is not working out. KLCI is still trap in short term consolidation. Thus, my CWs not moving. Rotational play moves to 3rd liners, the movement is fast and my filter is only designed to catch longterm trend that moves slowly. So I don't get to anticipate their moves. Since long term trend is getting flat, I am thinking of changing my filter parameters. Still looking into this.

Standarized the foreign CW parameters?

What the f...? The strike price for OSK CWs for foreign share are in HKD. The strike price for CIMB CWs for foreign shares are in MYR. Oh....this makes my computation so much harder!

Why can't there be a standard? This just brings confusion especially when one have to take into account the foreign exchange. If you don't look careful, you sure rugi.

Look at OSK CW Pricing table (11 Jun 2007 price). Even they are confuse. -44% premium for HSBC-C1 and 137.77% premium for Singtel-C1.

Shouldn't the basic parameters for foreign CWs be standardize?

ChinaMobile, ICBC, PetroChina CWs

For two days in a row the CW for HK listed shares are in the top-10 volume. Since it is only 2 days of data, I am unable to make any analysis on the CWs. Will wait longer before deciding whether to trade or not. Anyhow, this is my analysis on the underlying shares.
PetroChina: In uptrend. Best bet at the moment.

ICBC: Still going down. Avoid!
ChinaMobile: Consolidation. Wait.

Bjtoto, MISC, KLK, Kretam, Ranhill, Commerz

Mix result for this week. Bjtoto and MISC refuse to break new high. Still waiting. KLK makes another attempt, so my KLK-CC is above water now. Kretam makes a surprise move today. Anymore to go? I got out of Ranhill as I have interpreted the price/volume action will lead to consolidation. I don't want to sit it out. Anyhow, I got back in Commerz-CC as Commerz looks strong indeed.

Looks like the market has decoupled from external events. The number of bullish counters based on my definition keeps increasing since 31 May. Is everyone feeling happy because Abdullah is getting married? Happiness means people are more willing spend, so more buying to come?

HK Call Warrant

This is not as easy as I think. Can't compute mentally the market value of the call warrants as I need to take into consideration the exchange rate. The next problem will be having access to the price of the underlying shares itself.

BTW, Shanghai corrected, but a no even in the rest of the world. So, if everyone is expecting it to happen, it is a no surprise. A no surprise will not "move" the market. It got to be something unexpected to crash our market.....

MISC

If one ignore the spikes, MISC should probably has broken it's all time high. The interesting thing is that MISC-CB is trading at very low premium with a gearing of 10x. The reward will be tremendous if MISC keeps moving up. Of course, the reverse will be true.

Transmile Anyone?

Aiyoh, I don't understand why people will buy Transmile at this time? Look at the chart, very long candles. This represents emotional buy/sell. Anything can happen. There is no certainty. As a trader/investor, one need certainty. If you are not certain, do you dare to take the bet? Yes, nothing is 100% certain, but at least when the odds are in our favor, then oklor.

There are many counters that are still going up. Why not take a bet on them? Why bet on something that is diving down? What is the fare value? Every fare value that was given by an analyst can be consider just a random point. Nobody knows what the market will pay for it. Don't catch a falling knife. Rebound play is just not worth the risk!

KLK

Consolidation over for KLK? Highest gearing for KLK-CC as compared to KLK-CA and KLK-CB. All are in the money.

BJToto

Every where new high. How about KLCI? Still afraid of China crashing?

Looking at BJToto chart, it has closed at the 4 years old time high. Many sellers are waiting at around this region. So, is it going to break to 5.00 and above? Daily charts indicate that there is a good chance. So is it worth to take a bet at the covered warrant? It is still below the striking price but with a gearing of 14x and only 8 cents away.....Hope that it don't turn out like the bet I took with AMMB.