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Thursday, September 20, 2007
Bull vs Bear (20 Sept 2007)
Not much change in the bears but the number of bulls are slowly creeping up. With the crude oil at around USD80.00, the golden oil producers has started to move. I only notice them today.
The weekly plantation index chart shows that the consolidation is over. The main contributor is of course IOICorp. This is my opinion for counters with warrants/CW:
IOICorp: Long term uptrend. Trying to break 6.00. I will try to get into IOICorp-CE.
KLK: Long term uptrend. Broke out of consolidation. But does not fulfill my buy signal yet.
Kmloong: Long term uptrend. Still in correction.
Kretam: Long term uptrend. Within a clearly defined channel. Currently in base building.
Kulim: Long term uptrend. Still in correction.
SOP: Long term uptrend. Making an ascending triangle. Warrant is too expensive to play.
Wednesday, September 19, 2007
Trading Competition
Show your skills with Bursa Pursuit.
Of course I have registered. I wanna try my luck with the 100k. Of course I will not use this pseudonym since I have to register using my real name (just in case I win something). The only thing I'm not happy is that the prize is deposited in a trust account. Not sure when one is allowed to use it for other purposes.
Competition starts on 1st October. What are you waiting for?
Of course I have registered. I wanna try my luck with the 100k. Of course I will not use this pseudonym since I have to register using my real name (just in case I win something). The only thing I'm not happy is that the prize is deposited in a trust account. Not sure when one is allowed to use it for other purposes.
Competition starts on 1st October. What are you waiting for?
Bull vs Bear (19 Sept 2007)
Barely noticeable change. Seems like we will continue to become a laggard market. Luckily we have some foreign CWs to play with.
Anyhow, let's look at the banking sector today. The following are my interpretation based on their weekly chart:
Affin: Long term uptrend but in consolidation mode now.
AMMB: Long term uptrend and it seems possible that the correction is over. Trying to build a base at around 4.00.
BIMB: Trendless.
Commerz: Long term uptrend and it seems possible that the correction is over. Trying to build a base at around 10.50.
EONCap: Trend pretty flat.
HLBank: Long term uptrend but not yet complete it's correction yet.
Maybank: Long term uptrend but not yet complete it's correction yet.
PBBank: Long term uptrend and it seems possible that the correction is over. Trying to build a base at around 9.50.
RHBCap: Long term uptrend and it seems that it is starting to move up again.
Gold & Pohkong
Okay, everyone knows that gold is shooting through the roof like oil.
My question is, if there is an oil play for KLSE, will there be a play for gold? The counter that has any connection with gold are Pohkong, Tomei, Degem and Yikon. Out of this 4, only Pohkong shows sign of going up. Yikon has been pushed up sky high and now is still dropping, Degem is also dropping while Tomei is flat.
So, is it worth buying Pohkong? The future cannot be predicted, however, I've have taken a position in Pohkong due to its favorable chart.
My question is, if there is an oil play for KLSE, will there be a play for gold? The counter that has any connection with gold are Pohkong, Tomei, Degem and Yikon. Out of this 4, only Pohkong shows sign of going up. Yikon has been pushed up sky high and now is still dropping, Degem is also dropping while Tomei is flat.
So, is it worth buying Pohkong? The future cannot be predicted, however, I've have taken a position in Pohkong due to its favorable chart.
Start of Year End Rally?
DJI, Nasdaq and S&P500 all gives short term buy signal. This could signal the beginning of year end rally. Will Malaysia follows? Will the foreigners come back and pump up more?
Tuesday, September 18, 2007
Bull vs Bear (18 Sept 2007)
Short and medium term bears continue to increase. Bulls more or less stay the same.
Oil is at record high now. What will happen to the oil and gas counters?
This are my interpretation based on weekly charts:
Alam: Long term uptrend but under correction mode now.
Deleum: Downtrend, no bottom insight.
Dialog: Long term uptrend but possibly under base building mode now.
Epic: Long term uptrend but under correction mode now.
Kencana: Long term uptrend but under correction mode now.
KNM: Up up and away. In correction mode now.
Muhibbah: Up up and away. In correction mode now.
Oilcorp: In downtrend. No bottom insight yet.
Penergy: Slowly going down.
Perisai: In uptrend. Hard to say since the bulls and the bears are actively fighting. If close above 1.50, uptrend may continue. If not, will go into correction mode. I'm holding a small position in this counter.
Petra: Long term uptrend. In correction mode.
Ramunia: In downtrend.
Ranhill: I'm putting this as O&G. In uptrend. Behavior similar to Perisai.
Sapcres: In long term uptrend but still in correction mode. May have found bottom.
Scomi: In long term uptrend but still in correction mode. May have found bottom.
Tgoffs: Slow and steady uptrend. In base building now.
UMW: I'm putting this as part of O&G. In long term uptrend but in correction mode now.
Waseong: In long term uptrend. Possibly correction is over and under base building now.
So, my conclusion, Perisai and Ranhill should offer some exciting play at the moment.
Monday, September 17, 2007
Saturday, September 15, 2007
Bull vs Bear (14 Sept 2007)
All increases in number. I'm more bias towards a bearish view since I have immerse myself with so many bearish articles. US seems not dropping. Some last minute support. Just like KLCI. It seems that it doesn't cost a lot to buy a few lots to support the index.
Anyway, there are not many opportunities (yet) for KLSE. However, for the foreign CWs, it is making new high everyday. During the previous month downtrend, I sold most of them except Chlife-C1, ICBC-C3 and Petroch-C3. Last week, I added a few position after seeing that HK listed red chips are quite resislient to what was happening in the US. I missed out most of the action because the price was moving very fast and I was not able to find any good stop level. Furthermore, my bearish beliefs stop me from taking a bull position. But after observing the HKeX reaction to the US market, it seems that the players there is disregarding the US but is paying more attention to PRC.
My interpretations are as follows:
BOC: Cannot move up yet due to subprime investment. Still in base building mode.
CCCC: In uptrend. Daily RSI in 60s, so should go up some more. I'm looking at CCCC-C1 if it continues up.
Chalco: In uptrend but after that superb run, consolidating now. No signal yet of continuing uptrend.
Chlife: In uptrend. Daily chart may indicate the continuation of uptrend after 2 weeks of consolidation. I'm still holding Chlife-C1, the problem with this is that the volume is extremely thin.
Chmobil: In uptrend. All CWs are worth trading.
Cnooc: In uptrend. Cnooc-C1 premium is consider high if you compare it with other in the money CWs. I'm trying to get into this one.
HKEX: In uptrend. Those that bought will be really happy.
HSBC: Trendless.
HWL: In uptrend. It may be ending it's consolidation in a week or two. I'm keeping an eye on HWL-C1 which is back in the money.
ICBC: Trying to break 5.20, then should zoom up. But the subprime is still weighting on it.
Petroch: In uptrend and in a clearly defined channel. I think that it has just broken out from consolidation. Currently, the upper channel is at 13.00. I have added some position in Petroch-C3 and will add more when the price moves further.
Shenhua: In uptrend, runaway. Go up too fast.
Sinopec: In uptrend but currently building a new base.
Besides that, Singtel looks like it has broken out of consolidation and making new high. Singtel-C1 is a good ride. I'm going to get into this one also.
Thursday, September 13, 2007
Mesdaq & 2nd Board Index
Mesdaq counters are out of fashion already. Going down. No bottome in sight.
Looks like going to break to the downside.
Bull vs Bear (13 Sept 2007)
A jump in the number of bears. Bulls continue to reduce in numbers. This indicates that some counters in the no animal zone has joined the bears. Even thought the CI doesn't change much, the underlying sentiment is becoming worse. What will the market do when Sept 18 comes?
Wednesday, September 12, 2007
Bull vs Bear (12 Sept 2007)
For the 3rd day, the bears increase in strength while the bulls are weakening. Not a good sign.
Tuesday, September 11, 2007
Bull vs Bear (11 Sept 2007)
Bulls down, bears up! Rebound going to be over? I got the feeling that the index will visit 1200 again.
Monday, September 10, 2007
Friday, September 07, 2007
YTL Power
Looks interesting. RSI downtrend broken. MACD going positive. Stochastic & RSI points up. Not yet overbought. If market sentiment is good, then may hit the upper channel.
Bears are selling at the previous high of 2.50. Possible weakness coming. Will wait and see how does the correction turns out.
I will play TYL Power warrant if I decided to take out a position.
Bull vs Bear (7 Sept 2007)
Same story as yesterday. Bulls increase a little bit, bears reduce a little bit. The majority in non-animal zone.
Continue to recover. I only interpret this as rebound phase. No bullish signal yet.
A pack a day
It's budget day. Will the smokers get it again? I don't smoke, I pity those that smoke, I feel angry when they smoke in front of their kids. All efforts to discourage smoking does work.
Well, let's view smoking from the point of financial gain.
Assumption: You pick up smoking when you leave school, so let's say 18 years old. If you smoke later than that, most probably you don't get so hooked on. Anyway, due to your smoking, you die at 50 years all after having a pack a day for the last 32 years. Well, let's assume that a pack of cigarette cost 5.00 and it stays constant throughout your life (tough luck!).
Do you know how much you will have if if you didn't smoke and instead invest the money? Well, I use the compound interest calculator to calculate the amount:
Current principal: 0.00
Annual addition: 5 x 365 = 1825
Years to grow: 32
If the interest rate is 3%, the amount you would have obtain (at the end of the period) 98,692.06!
If you are lucky and found a unit trust that gives you 6% return annually, then it will be 175,826.28.
If you are a heavy smoker that smokes 2 packs a day, you would have 351,652.55 (for 6% return).
Mama mia. Imagine what you could have done with that kind of money when you retire. Unfortunately, it's all gone up in smoke.
Well, let's view smoking from the point of financial gain.
Assumption: You pick up smoking when you leave school, so let's say 18 years old. If you smoke later than that, most probably you don't get so hooked on. Anyway, due to your smoking, you die at 50 years all after having a pack a day for the last 32 years. Well, let's assume that a pack of cigarette cost 5.00 and it stays constant throughout your life (tough luck!).
Do you know how much you will have if if you didn't smoke and instead invest the money? Well, I use the compound interest calculator to calculate the amount:
Current principal: 0.00
Annual addition: 5 x 365 = 1825
Years to grow: 32
If the interest rate is 3%, the amount you would have obtain (at the end of the period) 98,692.06!
If you are lucky and found a unit trust that gives you 6% return annually, then it will be 175,826.28.
If you are a heavy smoker that smokes 2 packs a day, you would have 351,652.55 (for 6% return).
Mama mia. Imagine what you could have done with that kind of money when you retire. Unfortunately, it's all gone up in smoke.
Thursday, September 06, 2007
Bull vs Bear (6 Sept 2007)
Immediate bulls increases but longer term bulls decreases. For the bears, all 3 different period decreases. Even though the bulls have increased in numbers for the past 2 weeks, the majority of the counters are still in the no animal zone (not defined as bull or bear).
Wednesday, September 05, 2007
Bull vs Bear (5 Sept 2007)
A bigger jump in the number of bulls vs bears. Is it time to buy? I think this depends on your personality and the type of system that you are using.
The daily chart shows that all downtrend have been broken. Indicating the worst is over. But it is just under 1300 and also the maximum Fibonacci level for a rebound. So depending on your system, you could be selling or buying. Remember, for every trade, one side is bull and the other side is bear. Each side will see different things.
I prefer the longer term weekly chart. Not that much noise, that means less trade to perform. As one can see, it is still considered to be in consolidation (bull scenario). It could also mean bearish rally (bear scenario). The signals all are contradicting each other.
As the chart has no clear answers, that means I don't know whether the bull or the bear is stronger. That's why I choose to stay sideline.
This write up is to show that technical analysis is just a tool, interpreting and executing will require experience.
Tuesday, September 04, 2007
Monday, September 03, 2007
Friday, August 31, 2007
Bull vs Bear (30 Aug 2007)
Bulls still gaining. Bears are disappearing. Immediate term does not indicate a strong rally yet.
Wednesday, August 29, 2007
Bull vs Bear (29 Aug 2007)
Bulls and bears both increase. Hmmm..... what does this mean? Gap at 1255 has been covered. Volume traded continues to reduce. Since the ghost festival is over, hopefully we can have a better market. But 3rd quarter is generally a bad one for stocks. I think it is better to just watch and shake leg.
Tuesday, August 28, 2007
Bull vs Bear (28 Aug 2007)
Daily and weekly bears continue to reduce but at a slower rate. Bulls are still hiding but the numbers are increasing. Monthly bulls is more than bears, so long term trend is still up.
This is just another way of looking at the market. At least it is not manipulated by any last minute push ups.
Monday, August 27, 2007
Bull vs Bear (27 Aug 2007)
The bulls are gaining ground. Play has rotated from oil&gas, to IDR to HK CW. Bluechips, finance, plantation and mesdaq are still consolidating.
I will try to post the chart daily. A few things to note:
1. I only clean my database once a few weeks, so some delisted counter will be included in the statistic until I have have deleted it.
2. I depend on www.bizfun.cc for the share split/repayment adjustment. So a bull may become a bear until I have made the necessary adjustment.
Sunday, August 26, 2007
Bull vs Bear (24 Aug 2007)
My Excel chart goes haywire when I install the Office 2007 compatibility pack. I hate it the environment that I'm so used to it are changed.
Anyway, the chart shows that the bearish counters has dropped tremendously. Based on my reading of the weekly technical chart, I think that we are heading for a "Budget rebound" since the weekly chart still shows bearishness.
Thursday, August 23, 2007
KLCI (23 Aug 2007)
Strong rebound. Gap at 1255-1270. For long term uptrend to continue, the index must shoot pass 1300 and then consolidate and built up another based at 1300.
Current resistant is at around 1300 (many trend lines intersect there). I'm still staying sideline due to the bearish divergence in the weekly chart and also no good buy signal from my filter. Looking out the behaviour of the index when it reaches 14-day RSI value 60. If it cannot break this value, then it indicate that the bear has set up an ambush.
Mind the Gap
Strong rebound indeed. I still don't have any buy signal. So I'm still staying sideline. My indicators just don't work when the volatility is high. Anyway, there is a big gap at 1255-1270.
I'm monitoring the China listed CWs.Hopefully I can hop into a few.
I'm monitoring the China listed CWs.Hopefully I can hop into a few.
Monday, August 20, 2007
KLCI (17 Aug 2007)
Daily chart is shown. Just manage to close above the uptrend line that was formed from 900. Long shadow hammer may indicate a rebound. This will be confirmed with a white candle. If a rebound happens, the upper resistance will be around 1250. With everything so oversold, I am expecting a rebound. But the weekly indicators are really bad, so the rebound should be weak. Technically, the uptrend is still intact if one view from the monthly chart.
Friday, August 17, 2007
Worst is Over?
I got a feeling that the worst is over. The monthly 20EMA has provided a support (typo in my previous post). Hopefully nobody is in panic anymore. Tried to buy Kencana, cannot get. Looking for other battered counters.
Thursday, August 16, 2007
DJI
Dow goes down and down. HK, Malaysia and other markets follow. I guess everyone is seeing ghost now. Did anyone remember the prediction made by Tuo Pek Kong during CNY in Penang. Mann...bulls eye.
When will DJI stabilizes? Looking at the chart, it has broken the weekly uptrend line. The next major support can be obtained from the monthly chart and it is around 12100. So still a long way to go.
Maybe it the spirit of Malaysia Boleh, we can stabilize at 1200.
When will DJI stabilizes? Looking at the chart, it has broken the weekly uptrend line. The next major support can be obtained from the monthly chart and it is around 12100. So still a long way to go.Maybe it the spirit of Malaysia Boleh, we can stabilize at 1200.
Wednesday, August 15, 2007
Short
My bull vs bear chart is shown. From the daily numbers, the bear outnumber the bull by 27 to 1.Too bad that in Bursa Malaysia, there is mostly one way play. That is to buy and sell higher. The other way, to sell and buy lower is not available to most of the people. Well, technically one can short, but I don't know the process well, furthermore, the cost of doing this is not cheap. An alternative is to play the KLCI futures. Hmm...I have done that a few years back, did badly, the psychological scar is still in me.
What can I do but to sit and watch. The "consolidation" is not yet completed.
Friday, August 10, 2007
HWGB
KLCI (10 Aug 2007)

Weekly chart shown. Stochastic shows that it still have room to go down. If it closes below 1284, the next support will be at 1143 (monthly 30EMA line). This value is too extreme. Hopefully I'm wrong. The best thing one can do is to sit and watch what happens when the weekly stochastic is oversold or weekly 14RSI is around the 40s. Theoretically, if the bull is still alive, the index should u-turn at around 40s level for the weekly 14RSI.
Friday, August 03, 2007
CI (3 Aug 2007)
Weekly chart shown. Weekly RSI uptrend broken. Bearish RSI divergence detected. Parabolic SAR says sell. This week, CI found support at the 20EMA. Based on my theory, if this is broken, then expect it to go to 30EMA (currently at 1284). I'm expecting this to happen as the daily RSI has penetrated the 40 level and the daily stochastic is not oversold yet. Currently, the chart does not show any sign that the bottom has been found.This consolidation may take up to 2-4 months to clear (if bull is strong). I am looking to resume business only for year-end window dressing or CNY rally or election rally.
Thursday, August 02, 2007
KLSE Bull vs Bear

The chart shows the number of bulls vs bears (based on my definition) using different period filter. It's ain't pretty.
Wednesday, August 01, 2007
Extreme Pessimism
Since the day I kept records for the up/down ratio:
27 Feb 2007 Up = 42, Down = 1123. This is the day the index starts the correction from 1273 to 1090.
5 Mar 2007 Up = 42, Down = 1110. This is the day the index touches 1090 and recovers to 1392.
1 Aug 2007 Up = 57, Down = 1032.
Only two samples. No conclusion.
27 Feb 2007 Up = 42, Down = 1123. This is the day the index starts the correction from 1273 to 1090.
5 Mar 2007 Up = 42, Down = 1110. This is the day the index touches 1090 and recovers to 1392.
1 Aug 2007 Up = 57, Down = 1032.
Only two samples. No conclusion.
Support & Resistance
Okaylah, let me clarify a little bit how I view support and resistance since there were some comments on it.
Actually, I do not really look at vertical support and resistance. What I look at is EMA support and resistance. This will give me the confidence to either stay with the trend or get out. The best one is to look at weekly EMA, but this requires a strong psychology to stand deep correction (I'm not quite good at this).
Next I look at the curve of the EMA, the best curve (which I intepret it as strong trending) is when all of the different time period moves up from a single point. The tighter the point, the better. I learned this technique from Daryl Guppy. So, even if the singular point is near the vertical resistance, I still go in. However, I will not go in if it is under the weekly trendline.
I'm not doing well this pass month because I was too eager to place a trade. This is a discipline problem. To add salt to my wound, the movement of stocks are too fast. They go up very fast, they go down very fast. So I have problem managing my position. I am back to my old ways now, that is to wait for the perfect set up before entering. Concerning the method to manage my position, I'm still searching.
Actually, I do not really look at vertical support and resistance. What I look at is EMA support and resistance. This will give me the confidence to either stay with the trend or get out. The best one is to look at weekly EMA, but this requires a strong psychology to stand deep correction (I'm not quite good at this).
Next I look at the curve of the EMA, the best curve (which I intepret it as strong trending) is when all of the different time period moves up from a single point. The tighter the point, the better. I learned this technique from Daryl Guppy. So, even if the singular point is near the vertical resistance, I still go in. However, I will not go in if it is under the weekly trendline.
I'm not doing well this pass month because I was too eager to place a trade. This is a discipline problem. To add salt to my wound, the movement of stocks are too fast. They go up very fast, they go down very fast. So I have problem managing my position. I am back to my old ways now, that is to wait for the perfect set up before entering. Concerning the method to manage my position, I'm still searching.
Monday, July 30, 2007
KLCI weekly chart
Hmm....I'm pretty a laggard person. I always detect a trend when it is too late.....it is probably cause by the lagging indicators that I emphasis on.
No good, no good. MACD goes deeper into negative territory. RSI shows downtrend. Stochastic is still in overbought but weakening. EMA still mean bull but the bull is tired. With weakness in Dow Jones, the bears should be able to push down more easily as the bulls are having a confident crisis.
Conclusion: I will avoid buying index component stocks and if I am in in any but without profit, then I will believe that it is better get out first to protect capital.
No good, no good. MACD goes deeper into negative territory. RSI shows downtrend. Stochastic is still in overbought but weakening. EMA still mean bull but the bull is tired. With weakness in Dow Jones, the bears should be able to push down more easily as the bulls are having a confident crisis.Conclusion: I will avoid buying index component stocks and if I am in in any but without profit, then I will believe that it is better get out first to protect capital.
Saturday, July 28, 2007
Analysis Sektor: Papan Kedua
Sudah lama tidak tulis dalam Bahasa Malaysia. Nampaknya penguasaan Bahasa saya sudah koyak. Mungkin sudah lama tak baca Berita Harian atau Dewan Masyarakat. Macam mana ni, bulan Merdeka, mestilah cuba sikit untuk menunjukkan semangat patriotik saya.
Carta harian menampakan kelemahan jangka pendek kerana MACD sudah masuk ke zon negatif. Mungkin sokongan pada tahap 114 (EMA30 - garis coklat)
Carta mingguan menunjukkan kemungkinan kelemahan pada kaunter-kaunter papan kedua. Lilin doji bermakna lembu jantan dan beruang sama kuat. Belum pasti lagi. Minggu depan akan tahu.
Menuju ke carta bulanan pula, ia menunjukkan lembu jantan masih gagah. Tahap RSI di lingkungan 60an bermakna lembu jantan ini masih lagi ada tenaga bergerak ke atas. Tetapi masih ada 2 hari lagi ke akhir bulan. Jadi intepretasi ini masih belum muktamat.
Kesimpulan: Masih lagi boleh main kaunter-kaunter papan kedua. Tetapi mesti berwaspada. Dow Jones jatuh lagi 200 mata, apa akan terjadi pada minggu depan?
Carta harian menampakan kelemahan jangka pendek kerana MACD sudah masuk ke zon negatif. Mungkin sokongan pada tahap 114 (EMA30 - garis coklat)
Carta mingguan menunjukkan kemungkinan kelemahan pada kaunter-kaunter papan kedua. Lilin doji bermakna lembu jantan dan beruang sama kuat. Belum pasti lagi. Minggu depan akan tahu.
Menuju ke carta bulanan pula, ia menunjukkan lembu jantan masih gagah. Tahap RSI di lingkungan 60an bermakna lembu jantan ini masih lagi ada tenaga bergerak ke atas. Tetapi masih ada 2 hari lagi ke akhir bulan. Jadi intepretasi ini masih belum muktamat.Kesimpulan: Masih lagi boleh main kaunter-kaunter papan kedua. Tetapi mesti berwaspada. Dow Jones jatuh lagi 200 mata, apa akan terjadi pada minggu depan?
Tuesday, July 24, 2007
Plus

Plus is still moving up to challenge the previous high. Can it or not break? Plus-CA is about 10 cents undervalue. That is why I jump into Plus-CA.Monday, July 23, 2007
Spolymr & Hil
Got out of Spolymr due to the miscalculated Spolymr/Supermx arbitrage value. Also got out of Bjtoto-CA and TM-CC.
Hil looks stronger than I expected. So got back in.
Still riding on Ftec and Oilcorp.
Hil looks stronger than I expected. So got back in.
Still riding on Ftec and Oilcorp.
Thursday, July 19, 2007
Wednesday, July 18, 2007
Supermx & Spolymr II
I'm in back in Spolymr. I got only until 31 Jul to play this counter. 50% acceptance received by Supermx. Suddenly, Supermx price has broken a new high. So theoretically, Spolymr should worth about 16 cents more (based on Supermx current price of 2.66). Hopefully, this is not a one day event and Supermx can maintain the uptrend.
I'm hoping that some fund manager will play this arbitrage opportunity.
I'm hoping that some fund manager will play this arbitrage opportunity.
ICBC
Daily chart is shown. Looks like a possible uptrend channel is in the making. That is why I'm loading up with ICBC-C1. News report of possible 50% increase in profit. That explains the gap on the 10th of July. The gap is covered now. If can break the previous high of 5.22, then this could be a possible wave 3.
Sunday, July 15, 2007
Increase turnover
Oh boy, my turnover increases substantially in the last 2 months. My brokers must be really happy. I have exited Hil but failed to exit Ngiukee-WA. Concerning Cresbldr-WA, luckily I got half out, it looks like it is back to square-one from my entry price. Still waiting for the right moment to enter (if there is one).
New counters that I bought last week are Hovid and HWGB. HWGB is another of my dark losses. This is so called fundamental share that I bought due to the recommendation of GKGoh 3 years ago. However, due to their disastrous adventure in Cambonia, the share just goes down and down. That is why I don't trust fundamental analysis that much. Since I can't and don't know how to do it properly, I just gave up doing it.
New counters that I bought last week are Hovid and HWGB. HWGB is another of my dark losses. This is so called fundamental share that I bought due to the recommendation of GKGoh 3 years ago. However, due to their disastrous adventure in Cambonia, the share just goes down and down. That is why I don't trust fundamental analysis that much. Since I can't and don't know how to do it properly, I just gave up doing it.
Saturday, July 14, 2007
Historical Data
Bursa Malaysia counters historical data can now be accessed from Yahoo. They have from 2000 onwards. Looks like their are reestablished their support which they discontinued 4 years back. Does this indicate that we are back into the international spotlight?
Thursday, July 12, 2007
Mix Management Result
Took profit on my Perisai because I bought too high from the base. So if there is any correction, I will be in a vulnerable position. Also took half profit for my Crestbld-wa because of the gap price. It has since covered it. Still looking.
I have yet again mismanage my position. A clash of long term view with short term analysis. What am I going to do with my TM-CC & Bjtoto-CC? Still trying to figure out from my journal what really happened in me.
Yesterday, I decided to buy Resorts-CC. But made the mistake of putting a limit order. I think that if you need to rush and grab for something, it is a sign of strong up move. Come to think of, most of my limit order position are just sitting or moving slowly. It is not bad, but not the swiftness that I'm looking for. Guess that sometimes I'm impatience.
Okay, I will do the following next time:
I have yet again mismanage my position. A clash of long term view with short term analysis. What am I going to do with my TM-CC & Bjtoto-CC? Still trying to figure out from my journal what really happened in me.
Yesterday, I decided to buy Resorts-CC. But made the mistake of putting a limit order. I think that if you need to rush and grab for something, it is a sign of strong up move. Come to think of, most of my limit order position are just sitting or moving slowly. It is not bad, but not the swiftness that I'm looking for. Guess that sometimes I'm impatience.
Okay, I will do the following next time:
- Limit order during consolidation of a up move.
- Market order for up move in progress.
Tuesday, July 10, 2007
BOC

HKSE BOC got a big pushtoday. Downtrend, off course brokenlah. Daily chart is overbought. Weekly RSI is in the 60s. How much can it go? I have entered a small position in BOC-C1 because with this surge, BOC-C1 is in the money now.
Ngiukee
2nd Board
Hil
I think that there is a trading potential for this counter. The daily RSI is in the 60s. Looks like making a wave 3. The weekly charts all pointing up. What is left is the monthly indicators, but they are slowly reversing to point up.
CIMB vs OSK CW
Ok...I must admit I am still learning in trading foreign CWs. I didn't have time to think about it until today concerning the effect of currency on the CW price. Oh, my normal day job keeps me busy from thinking properly. Furthermore, I didn't consider this problem until when I face 2 choices of CW: CIMB or OSK?
To win, one need to know the direction of the underlying share. Bull or bear?
The next factor to be considered is the direction of the currency.
CIMB CW's strike price are in MYR while OSK's are in HKD. There is big difference between these two. If MYR strengthens against HKD, that means CIMB's CWs strike price increases in terms of HKD. Well, if the underlying share price remains unchanged, that means the CIMB CW's price must go down! If MYR weakens against HKD, that means CIMB's CWs strike price decreases in terms of HKD, so if the underlying share price remains unchanged, that means the CIMB CW's price must go up.
Conclusion:
To win, one need to know the direction of the underlying share. Bull or bear?
The next factor to be considered is the direction of the currency.
CIMB CW's strike price are in MYR while OSK's are in HKD. There is big difference between these two. If MYR strengthens against HKD, that means CIMB's CWs strike price increases in terms of HKD. Well, if the underlying share price remains unchanged, that means the CIMB CW's price must go down! If MYR weakens against HKD, that means CIMB's CWs strike price decreases in terms of HKD, so if the underlying share price remains unchanged, that means the CIMB CW's price must go up.
Conclusion:
- If HKD strengthens against MYR, buy CIMB CWs
- If HKD weakens against MYR, buy OSK CWs
Monday, July 09, 2007
ChinaLife

ChinaLife has broken the HKD30.00 barrier and closed at a new high. Daily and weekly indicators are overbought. Big surge today. Chlife-C1 may be starting to form an uptrend. I have taken an initial position on Chlife-C1 today.
ICBC

Look at HK shares, ramming every records. Too bad I only keep track of Petroch.
Well, my next target is ICBC. It looks like the downtrend has been broken and the gap price has been closed.
I wanted to buy ICBC-C1 since it has given me a buy signal. But as ICBC-C3 is listed today and it is trading a 1 cent lower, I bought it instead as I think that it is mispriced by the market. Anyhow, I'm still looking for the formula to calculate the theorectical price of a warrant.
Friday, July 06, 2007
Latest fashion in town
The latest fashion in town is the Hong Kong listed CW.
I know one can get free historical data from Yahoo. But to do it manually is too tedious. So I discover this tool called Yahoo Historical Quotes Downloader. Oh...i know of this tool long time ago. The first version that I used was a Java version that requires one to type the command in DOS prompt. Not user friendly at all. That's how my friend got the KLSE data from Yahoo before they discontinue the services. The next version that I tried comes with a GUI, unfortunately, it didn't work. I don't know why. But the latest version works almost perfectly. The free version allows you to download only 100 tickers at one time. So for HKEx, just repeat it a few times to get the complete database.
For daily updates, just go to eoddata to get it free.
So, to do TA on HK shares, get the ticker list from eoddata. Use the ticker list to download the historical data from Yahoo. Their data starts from year 2000. So its sufficient to do TA.
Not only that, you can also get SGX daily shares data. Okay, only one CW from SGX. Maybe it there will be more.
I know one can get free historical data from Yahoo. But to do it manually is too tedious. So I discover this tool called Yahoo Historical Quotes Downloader. Oh...i know of this tool long time ago. The first version that I used was a Java version that requires one to type the command in DOS prompt. Not user friendly at all. That's how my friend got the KLSE data from Yahoo before they discontinue the services. The next version that I tried comes with a GUI, unfortunately, it didn't work. I don't know why. But the latest version works almost perfectly. The free version allows you to download only 100 tickers at one time. So for HKEx, just repeat it a few times to get the complete database.
For daily updates, just go to eoddata to get it free.
So, to do TA on HK shares, get the ticker list from eoddata. Use the ticker list to download the historical data from Yahoo. Their data starts from year 2000. So its sufficient to do TA.
Not only that, you can also get SGX daily shares data. Okay, only one CW from SGX. Maybe it there will be more.
Tuesday, July 03, 2007
Petroch
I think I made a mistake of assuming that Petroch-C1 and Petroch-C3 should trade at the same premium. I forgot to take into account the expiration date of these CWs. Because of this flawed assumption, I have changed from Petroch-C1 to Petroch-C3 due to the perceived mispriced of the CW. Currently, Petroch-C3 is lagging the movement of Petroch-C1.
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