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Sunday, November 04, 2007
Shanghai & Hong Kong
Uptrendline broken. Trouble ahead. I don't think it will go up much. The question is how deep will be the correction.
Bearish divergence detected. Uptrendline still holding. Reward is not worth the risk.
Uptrendline broken. Bearish divergence detected. I guess it is also correction time. How deep?
Conclusion: No buying for HK CWs until a clearer picture emerge.
Saturday, November 03, 2007
Sold out by Bursa Malaysia Bhd.
I cannot believe it, I received an email from a 3rd party (IntegraStock.com.my) which tries to sell me some system to buy/sell stocks. The return email address is reply@integrastock.com.my. The origin IP address is different from the normal news email that I received from bursapursuit.com
I must admit, I did not read the fine print of the rules and regulation, but I don't think Bursa Malaysia Bhd is all0wed to released my personal information to a 3rd party! I don't recalled I have chosen to receive any email from any 3rd party.
This is a very unethical behavior from a big corporation in Malaysia.
Bursa Malaysia Bhd sold me out!
What will I do? I don't have the time to take this out officially but I know that this blog entry will be archived in Google's server forever.
I must admit, I did not read the fine print of the rules and regulation, but I don't think Bursa Malaysia Bhd is all0wed to released my personal information to a 3rd party! I don't recalled I have chosen to receive any email from any 3rd party.
This is a very unethical behavior from a big corporation in Malaysia.
Bursa Malaysia Bhd sold me out!
What will I do? I don't have the time to take this out officially but I know that this blog entry will be archived in Google's server forever.
Wednesday, October 31, 2007
Trading Money for Peace
When the odds in life is overwhelmingly against you, one need to find some kind of refuge.
My refuge is to listen to The Chant of Metta.
My refuge is to listen to The Chant of Metta.
Tuesday, October 30, 2007
Young fan
Okay, I got a young fan that keeps asking me question :p
From my experience, playing stock can sometimes be very disruptive to our daily job. Why? We tend to follow the ups and downs on our screen. We are happy when it goes up, worried when it goes down. Most beginners will tend to follow this daily up and down. Every opportunity we have, we will check our favorite counter price. If you are in the office, you keep a screen on all the time. If you are on the move, you subscribe to sms services or check through your smart phone etc. I have been through that stage before until I trade using a longer time frame. If not, cannot get any job done lor. Boss will be angry ler.
Making money is not that easy as advertised. This is a money sucking industry. The stock exchange take some of it. Your broker take some of it. You win, you pay them, you lose, you still need to pay them. This is a minus-sum-game. No wonder they need new blood, if not how can sustain their profit? If making money is easy, why do the majority of us still hold a job? So that to sustain our trading blunders!
Furthermore, the stock market is not a same level playing field. In football, you have the premier league for the best of the best, then 2nd division for the average and the 3rd division for amateurs. In stock market, the amateur is fighting straight on with the fund managers, the hedge fund traders, the day traders, the contra traders and all sort of people. It's like Malaysia playing Brazil! Without any foundation, one will sure to lose money.
The amount of capital must be large enough. Using the 2% money management rule, to have any meaningful stop, one need at least 10k. With 2K, you can only afford to lose 40 per trade, where 26 is already the commission that you must pay.
As with any other profession, the foundation is important. One needs to learn the theory. With theory, one develops a system. The system is to prevent us from acting inconsistently/irrationally. Then we add a little bit of money management just in case we are caught by the black swan. To execute our trade, we need to have the confident to pull the trigger, that is to train the mind.
So, to my young fan. Learn this 3 important pillars. Google it, buy a book. But read, think, analyze. There are many resources you can get. I'm just too lazy to re-write it down.
I will not encourage you like Bursapursuit. I'm not Dennis Richie that can train you out of the farm. You need to learn it by yourself. I can only give you some guidelines based on what I know. I'm not a guru. So my advice should be analyzed properly.
For the rest of the questions, I decline to answer as I would prefer to remain anonymous.
From my experience, playing stock can sometimes be very disruptive to our daily job. Why? We tend to follow the ups and downs on our screen. We are happy when it goes up, worried when it goes down. Most beginners will tend to follow this daily up and down. Every opportunity we have, we will check our favorite counter price. If you are in the office, you keep a screen on all the time. If you are on the move, you subscribe to sms services or check through your smart phone etc. I have been through that stage before until I trade using a longer time frame. If not, cannot get any job done lor. Boss will be angry ler.
Making money is not that easy as advertised. This is a money sucking industry. The stock exchange take some of it. Your broker take some of it. You win, you pay them, you lose, you still need to pay them. This is a minus-sum-game. No wonder they need new blood, if not how can sustain their profit? If making money is easy, why do the majority of us still hold a job? So that to sustain our trading blunders!
Furthermore, the stock market is not a same level playing field. In football, you have the premier league for the best of the best, then 2nd division for the average and the 3rd division for amateurs. In stock market, the amateur is fighting straight on with the fund managers, the hedge fund traders, the day traders, the contra traders and all sort of people. It's like Malaysia playing Brazil! Without any foundation, one will sure to lose money.
The amount of capital must be large enough. Using the 2% money management rule, to have any meaningful stop, one need at least 10k. With 2K, you can only afford to lose 40 per trade, where 26 is already the commission that you must pay.
As with any other profession, the foundation is important. One needs to learn the theory. With theory, one develops a system. The system is to prevent us from acting inconsistently/irrationally. Then we add a little bit of money management just in case we are caught by the black swan. To execute our trade, we need to have the confident to pull the trigger, that is to train the mind.
So, to my young fan. Learn this 3 important pillars. Google it, buy a book. But read, think, analyze. There are many resources you can get. I'm just too lazy to re-write it down.
I will not encourage you like Bursapursuit. I'm not Dennis Richie that can train you out of the farm. You need to learn it by yourself. I can only give you some guidelines based on what I know. I'm not a guru. So my advice should be analyzed properly.
For the rest of the questions, I decline to answer as I would prefer to remain anonymous.
Friday, October 26, 2007
Bulls vs Bears (26 Oct 2007)
Looks like the bulls are regaining back their strength.
I sold off almost all last Monday. Hey, I was spooked by this US market. But, someone always manage to push up the market before it closes.
Anyway, this time, I was discipline in cutting my losses. But the market turn right up after I cut. The previous time when I was not discipline in cutting my losses, the market when straight down. This shows that not only one need skills but also luck to win.
KLCI seems like it is going to break new high. I lost a few valuable position. Now, have to rebuilt it back. I will still go for the CWs for more bang per buck.
I have or trying to open position for the following CWs: IOICorp, Genting, KLK, PBBank, MISC, HWL and Cheungk.
Wednesday, October 24, 2007
SweeJoo, Kretam, AirAsia
Cloase at new high. How much can this go? Will it create a channel? Why are the insiders selling? I have an open position in this counter.
Within an uptrend channel. Can it break to the upside this time? Or will it fall back. I have an open position in Kretam-WA
Is the correction really over? I have no open position in this counter. Still thinking.
Tuesday, October 23, 2007
Chicken run
'I still sold [PetroChina] way too soon.'
— Warren Buffett
'I sold PetroChina CWs too soon.'
— swifz
:p
I scrambled out like a chicken when the market drops. This time, when things are not clear in my mind, I run. The last time I didn't run, I was rolled over like roti canai. I'm obsessed with protecting my capital and profit. My mind is filled with questions.
Is it a correction? Is it the continuation of downtrend? Double-top? Bubble-top? Election-push up? Oil shock? Gold shock? Dollar shock? Year-end window dressing? Bonus time? Subprime? Rate-cut? Halloween horror?
Arrgghhh. Bounce up and down. Hard to read the charts.
Ok. Back to daytime work.
'I sold PetroChina CWs too soon.'
— swifz
:p
I scrambled out like a chicken when the market drops. This time, when things are not clear in my mind, I run. The last time I didn't run, I was rolled over like roti canai. I'm obsessed with protecting my capital and profit. My mind is filled with questions.
Is it a correction? Is it the continuation of downtrend? Double-top? Bubble-top? Election-push up? Oil shock? Gold shock? Dollar shock? Year-end window dressing? Bonus time? Subprime? Rate-cut? Halloween horror?
Arrgghhh. Bounce up and down. Hard to read the charts.
Ok. Back to daytime work.
Monday, October 22, 2007
Friday, October 19, 2007
Bull vs Bear (19 Oct 2007)
Bulls continue to go down. KLCI looks like going down too. SSE looks toppish. HK looks troubling. US banking sector in trouble. Possible double top for FTSE & DAX. STI run seems to have ended. Trouble every where.
I have continued to reduce my HK CWs. Only left with Petroch and Chlife CWs. Next Monday, new batch of CWs will be out: Chcbc-C1, Chmerch-C1, HKEX-C4 and Zijin-C1. All issued during the high tide. So beware!
BTW, thanks to the HK CWs, my account finally goes into the black! So I took 40 months to get back all my tuition fees. Lets see whether I can maintain my performance.
Thursday, October 18, 2007
Bull vs Bear (18 Oct 2007)
The bulls are generally down, while the bears are creeping up. Beware!
The current crazy theme is "covered warrant". Yes, anything got to do with CW, buy, buy, buy. This is really crazy. The premium has expanded tremendously. How long will this last?
Bull vs Bear (17 Oct 2007)
I see that the bears are slowly creeping up. Daily bulls are down while weekly & monthly bulls are flat.
Not much action for Malaysian stock. Plantation stocks are doing well. Bursa continue to make new high. Oh...I missed out PBBank CW. People are so crazy about CWs again. This makes the CWs to go up very fast. No chance for me to buy.
HK CWs has gained tremendously. One has even score a 30% premium. Everyone is expecting it to continue to go up and up and up. But wait! Lee Shau Kee says sell above 30,000. That is one prominent investor. This call may just become a self fulfilling prophecy.
Anyway, I detected a bearish divergence signal on the HSI daily chart. So I decided to sell part of my CWs. Then again, I was really not comfortable everyone is just crazy.
Monday, October 15, 2007
Bull vs Bear (12 Oct 2007)
Still flat. Fund managers, you all have your rendang and ketupak. Spice up a little bit the share market now.
HK H-shares continue the crazy ride. A nice little poem for everyone.
Direct train coming through
Prices goes up the roof
Who cares about valuation
As this is only a perception
H-shares go higher
Bubble gets bigger
Uptrendline get steeper
Players get greedier
Petroch, Cnooc and Sinopec
Buy buy buy, auntie and ah-pek
ICBC, BOC and Chlife
Going up very nice
CCCC, Shenhua and Chalco
Yes! Go go go
Party till Olympic?
Currently not yet panic
But beware!
The creeping shadow of the bear
If you are the last one to get on
You will surely hit by the train head-on
P.S. Currently I'm sick with a cold, sore throat and red eye. So no feeling at all.
Friday, October 12, 2007
Thou shall not compute the profit
I told myself many times, don't compute the open position profit. No no no. Especially in the middle of the week. Don't fantasize with the profit. No no no. But I did it yesterday. Oh boy, what a discomfort it gave me. It really entice me to take profit. Yes, it is a bubble. It was a bubble two weeks ago, it was a bubble a month ago, it was a bubble 6 months ago. But the bubble keeps growing bigger.
By thinking in terms of profit, I am not able to read the market correctly anymore, every small correction gives me the jitter. It gives me the urge to take profit. My inner self was battling out:take profit vs. follow the exit system. Wise traders says: "Let you profit run. Sell your laggard!" Oh man, how hard it is to follow this simple advice. Psychologically, I'm still trying to train my mental thinking. The book that I'm still reading is The Disciplined Trader: Developing Winning Attitudes by Mark Douglas. Reading is one thing, making the points as your habit is another thing.
By thinking in terms of profit, I am not able to read the market correctly anymore, every small correction gives me the jitter. It gives me the urge to take profit. My inner self was battling out:take profit vs. follow the exit system. Wise traders says: "Let you profit run. Sell your laggard!" Oh man, how hard it is to follow this simple advice. Psychologically, I'm still trying to train my mental thinking. The book that I'm still reading is The Disciplined Trader: Developing Winning Attitudes by Mark Douglas. Reading is one thing, making the points as your habit is another thing.
Thursday, October 11, 2007
Bull vs Bear (11 Oct 2007)
Flat. No action on the Malaysian front while HK and SSE are hitting new high. But beware, HK is approaching 30,000 while SSE is approaching 6,000! Correction may be around the corner.
BOC A & H shares have broken out. Someone bought every share in BOC-C1 in the last few minutes until no sellers left. Crazy, the premium is too high now. Well 10% is consider high when most are trading at -1 to 1%. Unless BOCs move up, I think that BOC-C1 will drop back.
Sinopec also broken out today. Following the path of A-share. Hopefully, this laggard will be able to chase after the leaders Petroch & Cnooc.
I rearranged my HK CW by cutting out Cnooc and buying Sinopec. I am thinking that a breakout play should have stronger momentum to go higher and faster. Anyhow, I'm keeping my Petroch CW as it will be listed in SSE soon.
Looking out at IOICorp. On the verge of breaking out.
Wednesday, October 10, 2007
Bull vs Bear (10 Oct 2007)
Numbers of bears stay flat while mix for the bulls.
S&P just launch the S&P Southeast Asia 40 Index. 3 Malaysian companies that are in the Top-10 of this index are IOICorp, Genting and Maybank. I was unable to get the rest of the 14 companies from Malaysia.
Anyhow, does that mean trading opportunity for IOICorp, Genting and Maybank?
IOICorp: Long term uptrend. Currently consolidating between 5.80 to 6.20.
Genting: Long term uptrend but losing momentum. Currently the bulls and the bears are battling it out. The possibility for the bulls to win is greater.
Maybank: Looks like a false break of uptrend. Good chance of holding above 11.50.
Out of this 3, I have position in IOICorp & Genting CWs.
Tuesday, October 09, 2007
Singtel
Has everyone forgotten about Singtel-C1? It took me some effort to get into this counter. Singtel chart shows that it is moving up in a tight channel. Currently, Singtel-C1 is really lagging behind. With today's close, Singtel-C1 premium is -4%! The exercise price is in MYR but since SGD is appreciating against MYR, the exercise price in SGD has decreased. Why does it not trade at 0% premium (at least)? Maybe because Singtel tend to have a large swing of around 10 cents per day. This in affect means that if Singtel-C1 to trade with 0% premium, then it will also swing in the region of 20%. So quite dangerous if one gets the wrong entry.
Monday, October 08, 2007
Bull vs Bear (8 Oct 2007)
Bulls up, bears flat.
Most of my portfolio is made up of HK CWs. It's kind of scary this few days where the price can suddenly go down the cliff and then up again. Luckily I still have a good margin. If not, definitely a stressful situation. A-shares of BOC, ICBC and China Life rallied so much today. It is as if these stocks is really determined to maintain a high premium over their comrades in HK. Will the HK H-shares keep up the momentum?
Friday, October 05, 2007
Bursa Pursuit Top 10
Day 5 of competition, with an initial capital of MYR250,000.00, the No. 1 player now has MYR1,000,000.00!
I do not understand how can this happened. I wonder...
1. If these people are so damn good, are we the idiots that everyday lose money to them in the real game?
2. If you can earn 300% per week, why bother with the grand prize of MYR100,000.00?
3. What are they doing in a small market like Bursa Malaysia? Don't you want to be at Wall Street where the big money is?
4. Has the game simulate as close as the real game?
5. If you earn 300% per week, by week 6, will you have MYR1,024,000,000.00?
6. If No. 5 is true, will you own the whole wealth in Malaysia by the end of this year?
Bull vs Bear (5 Oct 2007)
Strong jump in daily bulls. This is due to day and contra traders that pushed the price up fast. Let's see whether it will be sustained by the longer time frame traders/investors.
A-H Discount
Bubble bubble everywhere,
Play small play big but beware,
When the bubble pops,
Make sure your pants do not drop.
SSE has closed for one week. What will happen on next Monday? Does a week of holiday makes everyone trigger happy? Did you notice the discount between H and A-share of ICBC? It is now about 10%. It was 20% a month ago.
What if this happens to the others? Keep an eye on Chalco, Chlife and Sinopec. Original post at Dragon Zone.
Play small play big but beware,
When the bubble pops,
Make sure your pants do not drop.
SSE has closed for one week. What will happen on next Monday? Does a week of holiday makes everyone trigger happy? Did you notice the discount between H and A-share of ICBC? It is now about 10%. It was 20% a month ago.
What if this happens to the others? Keep an eye on Chalco, Chlife and Sinopec. Original post at Dragon Zone.
Thursday, October 04, 2007
Bull vs Bear (4 Oct 2007)
No change. Market seems to be holding well.
My Pohkong seems to be acting out as in my dream. Can you believe that? My parents used to dream about 4D in their sleep but I dreamed about candlestick chart :p
Wednesday, October 03, 2007
Tuesday, October 02, 2007
Bull vs Bear (2 Oct 2007)
Big jump in the number of bulls today. Index gap up and at daily overbought position. I guess that correction is imminent. The question is how much correction?
Today is day 2 of the trading competition. I cannot believe my eyes. I pinch myself. Only 2 days and the No. 1 player have already earn 60%!!! To think that I only started buying today and this guy is so far out already. Mama mia. The top-10 players are much better than George Soros or Warren Buffett.
Monday, October 01, 2007
Bull vs Bear (1 Oct 2007)
Bulls continue to increase while bears continue to decrease. Today, I notice something crazy, the newly issued CWs are trading at a very high premium. HK market close, but the CWs rallied. Looks like people are scared of missing the boat. Anyway, for the Malaysian market, not many counters have rallied yet, so we are still at the beginning of a bull stage. It could pick up strength and it could still die off. The important point is risk control.
Sunday, September 30, 2007
Bull vs Bear (28 Sept 2007)
Daily & weekly bulls up, bears down. Monthly numbers about the same. So, 3rd quarter window dressing is over. What's up next?
My interpretation: The weekly chart is pointing upwards. However, the strength is suspected as the MACD is still negative. I feel more comfortable when MACD is in the positive region.
Anyway, I won't be too concern with the subprime problem. So as long as the market is in play, we play along (as long as a proper stop can be found).
My other holdings of Malaysian counters:
- Perisai (could be a mistake in entering this one, O&G play still taking a rest?)
- Pohkong (not yet move at all. Another mistake? But last night I dreamed that it shoot up :p).
Finally, talking about window dressing, doesn't it strike a fear in you (for those that invest through a mutual fund) that a fund manager must resort to dressing up a share price to give you an illusion of good performance? Doesn't this be consider as cheating?
Thursday, September 27, 2007
Bull vs Bear (27 Sept 2007)
Bull won! From this action and the KLCI chart, looks like the index is heading to 1400. I'm looking out for the following bluechips:
Genting: If can close above 8.20, then confirm break medium term downtrend channel.
Resorts: looks like going to challenge the upper channel at 4.50.
Plus: Broken medium term downtrend channel. Looking for a reasonable entry point.
PBBank: Looks like going to break 10.00
MISC: Broken medium term downtrend channel. Not sure about the strength.
IOICorp: 1st attempt at above 6.00 failed. Another attempt again?
KLK: Broken medium term downtrend channel. Looking on how is the possible correction going to be.
Gamuda: Challenging 9.00. Waiting for the appropriate time to enter (if any).
In addition to that, I notice that the steel players are moving now: Kinsteel, Masteel and Ornasteel.
This week, I opened new position in IOICorp-CE, Kretam-WA, Masteel and Singtel-C1. Hopefully no bad news to scare us anymore until CNY.
Wednesday, September 26, 2007
Bull vs Bear (26 Sept 2007)
Looks like the bulls are slowly increasing in numbers. The attention has shifted to local counters today as HK is closed for the mid autumn festival.
Since the market is hot, more CWs are issued, the latest are from CIMB: Petroch-C4, Chlife-C4, Resorts-CD and TM-CF. All are in the money and will be listed on 28 Sept. Watch out for Petroch-C4, really undervalue as Petroch has rallied quite a lot.
Talking about CWs, I prefer individual stocks CW than basket CWs because it is easier to compute the intrinsic value for the former as compared to the later. For instance, the basket CW ZA-OSKSB, I can't even remember what does the basket contains. To get the intrinsic value, one need to find out the value of the components and this cannot be down easily. No wonder the ZA-OSKSB is so thinly traded. Anyway, the latest basket coming out will be from CIMB that comes with some catchy name: 3 Treasures and Black Gold. The basket consists of counters from 3 countries name Malaysia, Hong Kong and Singapore. It is hard enough to monitor the basket from the same country, I don't know how can one monitor from 3 countries. I don't think it is worth the effort at all.
Tuesday, September 25, 2007
Bull vs Bear (25 Sept 2007)
Not much changes in the bulls and bears.
The euphoria for HK CWs have taken a rest. Look out for new CWs on 27 Sept: CCCC-C4, Chlife-C3, Angang-C1 & Cheungk-C1. As I'm using a trend following system, I need at least 7 trading days before I can decide whether to trade in these new issues of CWs.
Monday, September 24, 2007
Bull vs Bear (24 Sept 2007)
A bigger change in the number of bulls (up) and bears (down) today. Looks like the HK spillover effect.
KLCI looks like going to challenge the previous high. I will get into more BM counters.
HK H-shares CWs are running riot. I dare not add anymore. Holding position in CCCC, Petroch, Cnooc, Chlife and ICBC. The last time I added when the counters are running (MPHB, Gamuda, Maxis), I became nervous and sold out with any sign of correction. Because of this, it turned out that I missed out the biggest moves. This time I try not to repeat the mistake. I will try to ride out the correction.
Friday, September 21, 2007
Bull vs Bear (21 Sept 2007)
Short and medium term bears continue to go down. The rest no significant change.
Why are Malaysian counters not moving? Well, let's look into the Top-10 blue chips:
Maybank: Long term support has just broken, going down. No end in sight.
Commerz: Long term uptrend. Correction may be over and currently fighting to continue up.
PBBank: Long term uptrend and it seems possible that the correction is over. Trying to build a base at around 9.50.
Tenaga: Long term support broken. Going down and no end in sight.
TM: Long term support broken. Going down but much slower as compared with Tenaga. No end in sight.
Sime: Long term uptrend. Looks like correction is over and trying to push up higher.
IOICorp: Long term uptrend. Trying to break 6.00.
Genting: Long term uptrend. Correction may be over and in base building phase now.
MISC: Long term uptrend but still unable to break above 10.00. Correction may be over now and going for another attempt to the upside.
Resorts: Long term uptrend. Currently under correction mode and trading within a clearly defined uptrend channel.
So, looks like the bears are a little bit stronger for the top-10 blue chips. No wonder KLCI cannot go up.
Thursday, September 20, 2007
Bull vs Bear (20 Sept 2007)
Not much change in the bears but the number of bulls are slowly creeping up. With the crude oil at around USD80.00, the golden oil producers has started to move. I only notice them today.
The weekly plantation index chart shows that the consolidation is over. The main contributor is of course IOICorp. This is my opinion for counters with warrants/CW:
IOICorp: Long term uptrend. Trying to break 6.00. I will try to get into IOICorp-CE.
KLK: Long term uptrend. Broke out of consolidation. But does not fulfill my buy signal yet.
Kmloong: Long term uptrend. Still in correction.
Kretam: Long term uptrend. Within a clearly defined channel. Currently in base building.
Kulim: Long term uptrend. Still in correction.
SOP: Long term uptrend. Making an ascending triangle. Warrant is too expensive to play.
Wednesday, September 19, 2007
Trading Competition
Show your skills with Bursa Pursuit.
Of course I have registered. I wanna try my luck with the 100k. Of course I will not use this pseudonym since I have to register using my real name (just in case I win something). The only thing I'm not happy is that the prize is deposited in a trust account. Not sure when one is allowed to use it for other purposes.
Competition starts on 1st October. What are you waiting for?
Of course I have registered. I wanna try my luck with the 100k. Of course I will not use this pseudonym since I have to register using my real name (just in case I win something). The only thing I'm not happy is that the prize is deposited in a trust account. Not sure when one is allowed to use it for other purposes.
Competition starts on 1st October. What are you waiting for?
Bull vs Bear (19 Sept 2007)
Barely noticeable change. Seems like we will continue to become a laggard market. Luckily we have some foreign CWs to play with.
Anyhow, let's look at the banking sector today. The following are my interpretation based on their weekly chart:
Affin: Long term uptrend but in consolidation mode now.
AMMB: Long term uptrend and it seems possible that the correction is over. Trying to build a base at around 4.00.
BIMB: Trendless.
Commerz: Long term uptrend and it seems possible that the correction is over. Trying to build a base at around 10.50.
EONCap: Trend pretty flat.
HLBank: Long term uptrend but not yet complete it's correction yet.
Maybank: Long term uptrend but not yet complete it's correction yet.
PBBank: Long term uptrend and it seems possible that the correction is over. Trying to build a base at around 9.50.
RHBCap: Long term uptrend and it seems that it is starting to move up again.
Gold & Pohkong
Okay, everyone knows that gold is shooting through the roof like oil.
My question is, if there is an oil play for KLSE, will there be a play for gold? The counter that has any connection with gold are Pohkong, Tomei, Degem and Yikon. Out of this 4, only Pohkong shows sign of going up. Yikon has been pushed up sky high and now is still dropping, Degem is also dropping while Tomei is flat.
So, is it worth buying Pohkong? The future cannot be predicted, however, I've have taken a position in Pohkong due to its favorable chart.
My question is, if there is an oil play for KLSE, will there be a play for gold? The counter that has any connection with gold are Pohkong, Tomei, Degem and Yikon. Out of this 4, only Pohkong shows sign of going up. Yikon has been pushed up sky high and now is still dropping, Degem is also dropping while Tomei is flat.
So, is it worth buying Pohkong? The future cannot be predicted, however, I've have taken a position in Pohkong due to its favorable chart.
Start of Year End Rally?
DJI, Nasdaq and S&P500 all gives short term buy signal. This could signal the beginning of year end rally. Will Malaysia follows? Will the foreigners come back and pump up more?
Tuesday, September 18, 2007
Bull vs Bear (18 Sept 2007)
Short and medium term bears continue to increase. Bulls more or less stay the same.
Oil is at record high now. What will happen to the oil and gas counters?
This are my interpretation based on weekly charts:
Alam: Long term uptrend but under correction mode now.
Deleum: Downtrend, no bottom insight.
Dialog: Long term uptrend but possibly under base building mode now.
Epic: Long term uptrend but under correction mode now.
Kencana: Long term uptrend but under correction mode now.
KNM: Up up and away. In correction mode now.
Muhibbah: Up up and away. In correction mode now.
Oilcorp: In downtrend. No bottom insight yet.
Penergy: Slowly going down.
Perisai: In uptrend. Hard to say since the bulls and the bears are actively fighting. If close above 1.50, uptrend may continue. If not, will go into correction mode. I'm holding a small position in this counter.
Petra: Long term uptrend. In correction mode.
Ramunia: In downtrend.
Ranhill: I'm putting this as O&G. In uptrend. Behavior similar to Perisai.
Sapcres: In long term uptrend but still in correction mode. May have found bottom.
Scomi: In long term uptrend but still in correction mode. May have found bottom.
Tgoffs: Slow and steady uptrend. In base building now.
UMW: I'm putting this as part of O&G. In long term uptrend but in correction mode now.
Waseong: In long term uptrend. Possibly correction is over and under base building now.
So, my conclusion, Perisai and Ranhill should offer some exciting play at the moment.
Monday, September 17, 2007
Saturday, September 15, 2007
Bull vs Bear (14 Sept 2007)
All increases in number. I'm more bias towards a bearish view since I have immerse myself with so many bearish articles. US seems not dropping. Some last minute support. Just like KLCI. It seems that it doesn't cost a lot to buy a few lots to support the index.
Anyway, there are not many opportunities (yet) for KLSE. However, for the foreign CWs, it is making new high everyday. During the previous month downtrend, I sold most of them except Chlife-C1, ICBC-C3 and Petroch-C3. Last week, I added a few position after seeing that HK listed red chips are quite resislient to what was happening in the US. I missed out most of the action because the price was moving very fast and I was not able to find any good stop level. Furthermore, my bearish beliefs stop me from taking a bull position. But after observing the HKeX reaction to the US market, it seems that the players there is disregarding the US but is paying more attention to PRC.
My interpretations are as follows:
BOC: Cannot move up yet due to subprime investment. Still in base building mode.
CCCC: In uptrend. Daily RSI in 60s, so should go up some more. I'm looking at CCCC-C1 if it continues up.
Chalco: In uptrend but after that superb run, consolidating now. No signal yet of continuing uptrend.
Chlife: In uptrend. Daily chart may indicate the continuation of uptrend after 2 weeks of consolidation. I'm still holding Chlife-C1, the problem with this is that the volume is extremely thin.
Chmobil: In uptrend. All CWs are worth trading.
Cnooc: In uptrend. Cnooc-C1 premium is consider high if you compare it with other in the money CWs. I'm trying to get into this one.
HKEX: In uptrend. Those that bought will be really happy.
HSBC: Trendless.
HWL: In uptrend. It may be ending it's consolidation in a week or two. I'm keeping an eye on HWL-C1 which is back in the money.
ICBC: Trying to break 5.20, then should zoom up. But the subprime is still weighting on it.
Petroch: In uptrend and in a clearly defined channel. I think that it has just broken out from consolidation. Currently, the upper channel is at 13.00. I have added some position in Petroch-C3 and will add more when the price moves further.
Shenhua: In uptrend, runaway. Go up too fast.
Sinopec: In uptrend but currently building a new base.
Besides that, Singtel looks like it has broken out of consolidation and making new high. Singtel-C1 is a good ride. I'm going to get into this one also.
Thursday, September 13, 2007
Mesdaq & 2nd Board Index
Mesdaq counters are out of fashion already. Going down. No bottome in sight.
Looks like going to break to the downside.
Bull vs Bear (13 Sept 2007)
A jump in the number of bears. Bulls continue to reduce in numbers. This indicates that some counters in the no animal zone has joined the bears. Even thought the CI doesn't change much, the underlying sentiment is becoming worse. What will the market do when Sept 18 comes?
Wednesday, September 12, 2007
Bull vs Bear (12 Sept 2007)
For the 3rd day, the bears increase in strength while the bulls are weakening. Not a good sign.
Tuesday, September 11, 2007
Bull vs Bear (11 Sept 2007)
Bulls down, bears up! Rebound going to be over? I got the feeling that the index will visit 1200 again.
Monday, September 10, 2007
Friday, September 07, 2007
YTL Power
Looks interesting. RSI downtrend broken. MACD going positive. Stochastic & RSI points up. Not yet overbought. If market sentiment is good, then may hit the upper channel.
Bears are selling at the previous high of 2.50. Possible weakness coming. Will wait and see how does the correction turns out.
I will play TYL Power warrant if I decided to take out a position.
Bull vs Bear (7 Sept 2007)
Same story as yesterday. Bulls increase a little bit, bears reduce a little bit. The majority in non-animal zone.
Continue to recover. I only interpret this as rebound phase. No bullish signal yet.
A pack a day
It's budget day. Will the smokers get it again? I don't smoke, I pity those that smoke, I feel angry when they smoke in front of their kids. All efforts to discourage smoking does work.
Well, let's view smoking from the point of financial gain.
Assumption: You pick up smoking when you leave school, so let's say 18 years old. If you smoke later than that, most probably you don't get so hooked on. Anyway, due to your smoking, you die at 50 years all after having a pack a day for the last 32 years. Well, let's assume that a pack of cigarette cost 5.00 and it stays constant throughout your life (tough luck!).
Do you know how much you will have if if you didn't smoke and instead invest the money? Well, I use the compound interest calculator to calculate the amount:
Current principal: 0.00
Annual addition: 5 x 365 = 1825
Years to grow: 32
If the interest rate is 3%, the amount you would have obtain (at the end of the period) 98,692.06!
If you are lucky and found a unit trust that gives you 6% return annually, then it will be 175,826.28.
If you are a heavy smoker that smokes 2 packs a day, you would have 351,652.55 (for 6% return).
Mama mia. Imagine what you could have done with that kind of money when you retire. Unfortunately, it's all gone up in smoke.
Well, let's view smoking from the point of financial gain.
Assumption: You pick up smoking when you leave school, so let's say 18 years old. If you smoke later than that, most probably you don't get so hooked on. Anyway, due to your smoking, you die at 50 years all after having a pack a day for the last 32 years. Well, let's assume that a pack of cigarette cost 5.00 and it stays constant throughout your life (tough luck!).
Do you know how much you will have if if you didn't smoke and instead invest the money? Well, I use the compound interest calculator to calculate the amount:
Current principal: 0.00
Annual addition: 5 x 365 = 1825
Years to grow: 32
If the interest rate is 3%, the amount you would have obtain (at the end of the period) 98,692.06!
If you are lucky and found a unit trust that gives you 6% return annually, then it will be 175,826.28.
If you are a heavy smoker that smokes 2 packs a day, you would have 351,652.55 (for 6% return).
Mama mia. Imagine what you could have done with that kind of money when you retire. Unfortunately, it's all gone up in smoke.
Thursday, September 06, 2007
Bull vs Bear (6 Sept 2007)
Immediate bulls increases but longer term bulls decreases. For the bears, all 3 different period decreases. Even though the bulls have increased in numbers for the past 2 weeks, the majority of the counters are still in the no animal zone (not defined as bull or bear).
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