ICBC

Daily chart is shown. Looks like a possible uptrend channel is in the making. That is why I'm loading up with ICBC-C1. News report of possible 50% increase in profit. That explains the gap on the 10th of July. The gap is covered now. If can break the previous high of 5.22, then this could be a possible wave 3.

Increase turnover

Oh boy, my turnover increases substantially in the last 2 months. My brokers must be really happy. I have exited Hil but failed to exit Ngiukee-WA. Concerning Cresbldr-WA, luckily I got half out, it looks like it is back to square-one from my entry price. Still waiting for the right moment to enter (if there is one).

New counters that I bought last week are Hovid and HWGB. HWGB is another of my dark losses. This is so called fundamental share that I bought due to the recommendation of GKGoh 3 years ago. However, due to their disastrous adventure in Cambonia, the share just goes down and down. That is why I don't trust fundamental analysis that much. Since I can't and don't know how to do it properly, I just gave up doing it.

Historical Data

Bursa Malaysia counters historical data can now be accessed from Yahoo. They have from 2000 onwards. Looks like their are reestablished their support which they discontinued 4 years back. Does this indicate that we are back into the international spotlight?

Mix Management Result

Took profit on my Perisai because I bought too high from the base. So if there is any correction, I will be in a vulnerable position. Also took half profit for my Crestbld-wa because of the gap price. It has since covered it. Still looking.

I have yet again mismanage my position. A clash of long term view with short term analysis. What am I going to do with my TM-CC & Bjtoto-CC? Still trying to figure out from my journal what really happened in me.

Yesterday, I decided to buy Resorts-CC. But made the mistake of putting a limit order. I think that if you need to rush and grab for something, it is a sign of strong up move. Come to think of, most of my limit order position are just sitting or moving slowly. It is not bad, but not the swiftness that I'm looking for. Guess that sometimes I'm impatience.

Okay, I will do the following next time:

1. Limit order during consolidation of a up move.
   
2. Market order for up move in progress.

BOC

HKSE BOC got a big pushtoday. Downtrend, off course brokenlah. Daily chart is overbought. Weekly RSI is in the 60s. How much can it go? I have entered a small position in BOC-C1 because with this surge, BOC-C1 is in the money now.

Ngiukee

A break of downtrend? All weekly indicators are currently up. It's only Tuesday, so 3 more days to go for confirmation. My interest lies in the warrant. It's one of my dark losses. Don't ask me why I'm still hanging. Maybe to remind myself of ones vulnerability.

2nd Board

I cannot believe it. I didn't notice the 2nd board index because my attention was glued to the bluechips CW. The chart shows that it is rising steadily. Daily and weekly charts are of course overbought, but the monthly says that it still have energy.

Hil

I think that there is a trading potential for this counter. The daily RSI is in the 60s. Looks like making a wave 3. The weekly charts all pointing up. What is left is the monthly indicators, but they are slowly reversing to point up.

CIMB vs OSK CW

Ok...I must admit I am still learning in trading foreign CWs. I didn't have time to think about it until today concerning the effect of currency on the CW price. Oh, my normal day job keeps me busy from thinking properly. Furthermore, I didn't consider this problem until when I face 2 choices of CW: CIMB or OSK?

To win, one need to know the direction of the underlying share. Bull or bear?

The next factor to be considered is the direction of the currency.

CIMB CW's strike price are in MYR while OSK's are in HKD. There is big difference between these two. If MYR strengthens against HKD, that means CIMB's CWs strike price increases in terms of HKD. Well, if the underlying share price remains unchanged, that means the CIMB CW's price must go down! If MYR weakens against HKD, that means CIMB's CWs strike price decreases in terms of HKD, so if the underlying share price remains unchanged, that means the CIMB CW's price must go up.

Conclusion:

1. If HKD strengthens against MYR, buy CIMB CWs
2. If HKD weakens against MYR, buy OSK CWs

Anyway, the currency effect can be ignored if the movement of the underlying share price is substantial as compared to the currency movement.

ChinaLife

ChinaLife has broken the HKD30.00 barrier and closed at a new high. Daily and weekly indicators are overbought. Big surge today. Chlife-C1 may be starting to form an uptrend. I have taken an initial position on Chlife-C1 today.

ICBC

Look at HK shares, ramming every records. Too bad I only keep track of Petroch.

Well, my next target is ICBC. It looks like the downtrend has been broken and the gap price has been closed.

I wanted to buy ICBC-C1 since it has given me a buy signal. But as ICBC-C3 is listed today and it is trading a 1 cent lower, I bought it instead as I think that it is mispriced by the market. Anyhow, I'm still looking for the formula to calculate the theorectical price of a warrant.

Latest fashion in town

The latest fashion in town is the Hong Kong listed CW.

I know one can get free historical data from Yahoo. But to do it manually is too tedious. So I discover this tool called Yahoo Historical Quotes Downloader. Oh...i know of this tool long time ago. The first version that I used was a Java version that requires one to type the command in DOS prompt. Not user friendly at all. That's how my friend got the KLSE data from Yahoo before they discontinue the services. The next version that I tried comes with a GUI, unfortunately, it didn't work. I don't know why. But the latest version works almost perfectly. The free version allows you to download only 100 tickers at one time. So for HKEx, just repeat it a few times to get the complete database.

For daily updates, just go to eoddata to get it free.

So, to do TA on HK shares, get the ticker list from eoddata. Use the ticker list to download the historical data from Yahoo. Their data starts from year 2000. So its sufficient to do TA.

Not only that, you can also get SGX daily shares data. Okay, only one CW from SGX. Maybe it there will be more.

Petroch

I think I made a mistake of assuming that Petroch-C1 and Petroch-C3 should trade at the same premium. I forgot to take into account the expiration date of these CWs. Because of this flawed assumption, I have changed from Petroch-C1 to Petroch-C3 due to the perceived mispriced of the CW. Currently, Petroch-C3 is lagging the movement of Petroch-C1.

Perisai

Perisai looks interesting. Depending on how you draw the downtrend line (weekly chart above), you could interpret it as the downtrend line has been broken or maybe not. A look at the RSI shows that the weekly downtrend RSI has been broken (no ambiguity here). Furthermore, the RSI value is in the 60s. I interpret this as bullish development. Most probably the 27 months of consolidation is over.


The daily chart shows that it is overbought but the RSI has been able to make a higher high. Possible pullback should be expected as indicated by the long shadow candle.

Sliding Temporary Halted?

The KLCI technicals is bad. Unless some miracle happens, it will take a few months to recover to the upside (if it happens). It was a busy week for me, I cut almost all my CWs. Only left TM-CC, AMMB-CA and BJToto-CA. For BJToto-CA, I'm betting that the support at around 5.10 should hold. If the market continues to slid, even good shares will also go down. My technical readings also spell trouble for my so called fundamental counters: Notion, Wellcal and Masteel. These counters looks like sinking due to gravity. All are cleared for now. If it ain't going up, why keep and expose yourself to market risk? Cash is king. Anyhow, will reenter if the condition changes (hopefully not sudden change as I will definitely not able to catch the signal if it is too fast.)

All is not lost yet. Ftec seems to be inching 1.5 cents per week. Oilcorp pula looks like go to break to the upside again. So, you see, I'm not selling all out yet.....

High percentage of failure

Looks like for every 2 stocks that I choose, 1 will not work out. Very high rate of failure, huh?

All my finance play not working out. I cannot imagine how did I missed out the property play. Maybe I was paying to much energy on L&G to get out from it. Talking about L&G, I missed the boat, I tried to get in last week but took the unusual way of using limit order. Usually I use market order. Most probably the past still haunts me. What play will be next?

Market ding dong up and down. I think I will leave the bluechips CW for now. The technicals are getting worse. US is not looking good. A double top? Not a good time for election if the market continue behaving like this. The best is maybe the year-end window dressing.

Looking for Oppurtunities

The following is my basic method of looking for trading opportunities using Metastock. Before I continue, I would like to thank the following person for making this possible:
1. SML for providing the Metastock update script and taking the effort to get the data from Yahoo (when it was still available).
2. Swingtrader for teaching me how to write the filter formula.

Okai, lets go to the steps:
1. Set up Metastock filter rules. Mine look like this:
a. Monthly timeframe scan
Mov(CLOSE,3,E) > Mov(CLOSE,7,E) AND MACD() > Mov(MACD(),9,E)

b. Weekly timeframe scan
Mov(CLOSE,3,E) > Mov(CLOSE,7,E) AND Mov(CLOSE,7,E) > Mov(CLOSE,20,E) AND MACD() > Mov(MACD(),9,E)

c. Daily timeframe scan
Mov(CLOSE,3,E) > Mov(CLOSE,7,E) AND Mov(CLOSE,7,E) > Mov(CLOSE,20,E) AND Mov(CLOSE,20,E) > Mov(CLOSE,30,E) AND MACD() > Mov(MACD(),9,E)

2. Copy the result

3. Compare the result with the previous day result

4. Find the differences

5. The differences represents possible trading oppurtunity

Example for CWs
18-Jun-07: BURSA DIGI MPLANT PROTON
19-Jun-07: BJTOTO BURSA DIGI MPLANT PLUS PROTON RHBCAP TM
So on 20 Jun, one may consider trading in BJToto, Plus, RHBCap or TM. This depends on the detail analysis of the stock.

TA vs FA

Technical Analysis vs Fundamental Analysis. Which is better? As I said before, use a method that suits your personality.

Why I use TA instead of FA?

Well, when I first started investing, actually I tried to use FA. First I rely on the FA reports from brokerage houses, then I tried doing it myself. Bought books on how to do that. But the problem is:

1. I have limited time, can you do an analysis on 1300 counters in BM?
2. One cannot rely doing FA from the desk only (i.e. read yearly account statement), you need to talk to the management, competitors etc. Will the management entertain an unknown?
3. Accounting is not my field of expertise. I thought it was debit/credit (as I learned in my Perdagangan class in Form 1-3). But things can get really creative!
   
4. Brokerage houses have access to the management, but they do not always report it objectively. They tend to give a more rosy picture for everything (i.e buys vs sells are a ratio of multiple times).
5. I'm only limited to Malaysian market.

So I switched to TA. TA works if you are discipline and knows the weaknesses. What I have learned from TA:

1. There is no silver bullet. Don't rely only on one indicator. You need to combine them.
2. Use simple indicators because everything are derived from price and volume.
   
3. Don't be short sighted, always look at the bigger picture no matter which time frame you are trading in.
4. Interpretation is an art, you need experience for that. So don't expect quick result in the early stages.

The advantages of using TA is:

1. Your trading is not only limited to Malaysia, humans behave the same all around the world, so your TA technique works in every market.
2. You can trade stock, commodity and currency using TA.
3. Saves you time as TA programs can scan through everything in a few minutes.

That summarizes my opinion about TA vs FA.

PBBank

Is PBBank coming? The first chart is PBBank-01 while the second is PBBank. PBBank chart is not pretty as it shows weekly bearish divergence and the MACD is going into negative zone. However, at look at PBBank-01 which only the foreigners can buy tells a different story. The weekly RSI bearish divergence has been broken (as of Thursday) and the MACD is going back into positive zone. So, will PBBank follow?

Based on this argument, PBBank could follow PBBank-01, I have taken a tiny position in PBBank-CC as it has the longest lifetime (premium and gearing are all almost the same for the 3 CWs: CA/CB/CC). Hopefully this works out.

Spolymr & BJToto

Rebalancing my portfolio. Sold Spolymr as it looks about at the right value based on current Supermx price. I don't want to hold odd lots as happened to my GHLSys.

Took a quick profit on BJToto as I'm a little bit concern with today's candle. Furthermore, I bought at a level where the proper stop was very far from my entry price, i.e. no balls to hang on :p

Telekom is overbought now. Can it break 11.10????

Watch out on Petroch-C3 tomorrow. Those that have subscribe to the CW are technically 70% richer now (based on the given premium for Petroch-C1).