Kurasia, Timecom, Oskvi

Kurasia: Looks like it has broken out from the falling flag formation. Daily and weekly indicators are positive. Good chance of going up higher. Strong buying volume (10,000 & 5,000 lots transaction) last week – is this an illusion or real fund buying?

Timecom: I have sold out Timecom with a lost after the weekly MACD drops into negative territory. My interpretation of this event is that more downside is to be expected. So finally acted on my mistake.

Oskvi: I have sold out this counter with a lost after the weekly MACD also drops into negative territory. My speculation was correct concerning the push up before the share consolidation but my poor execution of running away after it was relisted spell my doom (I was hoping for better price!).

Trust No One!

Can you trust analyst report and financial news articles. Definately a big NO!

Read the story at http://whereiszemoola.blogspot.com/

I think that a law must be enacted to prevent the same company that manages unit trust/brokerage to issue analysis report on Bursa's company. This people have hidden agendas. For their unit trust funds to perform, they need to sell it higher than their cost. Well, if all unit trust are equal, who will buy from them? The foreigners are too smart. This left the retailers. I got caught with Ghlsys and Novamsc based on their so-called "professional" report.

Well, never again! Their always positive reports definately will make you feel positive, pushing your inner self to buy. And wham...the next thing you know, the stock is at the tail-end of an uptrend. And you hope and hope that you can break even....until it becomes another expensive toilet paper.

So, stop reading analyst reports especially those from brokerage firms with unit trust funds.

As I learn from the X-files: Trust No One.

Water Related Counters

My opinion on water related counters:

Salcon: Based building. Possibly end of downtrend. But no signals yet.
Puncak: Still in downtrend.
PBA: Still in downtrend.
Rubhd: Still in downtrend.
Jaks: Still in downtrend.
Hiaptek: Still in downtrend.
YLI: Still in downtrend.

So no trading opportunities on water related counters. Just keeping an eye on Salcon as it is the most promising one. Will the promise of China oppurtunities brings profit to this counter?

The Waiting Game

Waiting for my counters big move. So when will it happen? I missed out Farmbes, bad decision on that. Now I can only look as it rises as I dare not chase after it as both the daily and weekly RSI are overbought.

So I can only wait for my Carotech or Thgroup or Timecom to move.

Timecom seems to be hanging at the monthly support line. If the MACD deteriorate further, I will have to take a lost.

Still waiting...

More and more bulls

The number of bullish counters that I am monitoring are increasing. They are:
Jobs, Carotech, Gpacket, Farmbes, Thgroup, Timecom, Spoly, Kbes, Kurasia, LKT, Iris

They are in various stages of the bull.

I missed out on Farmbes. But I am in Carotech, Thgroup-WA, Timecom.

If Nov 18 is the day the CI truely moves away from 890 level, then from my chart reading, we may see the index challenging 860 once more. And if it is able to break away from that level, then we will see a super-bull. If it breaks 890, then we shall see 860 once more.

The important thing is to be on the right side of the trend.

Number Theory

Chinese believe that certain number signify certain meaning. 4 signify death, 8 signify prosperity.

The CI continues to drop until Nov 14 which was at critical level support of 890. Well the date can also be written as 1114. In Cantonese it means “every time die”. Luckily it didn’t drop more than that.

On Nov 18, it rebounded to above 900. If you write it as 1118, then it means “every time prosperous”.

Are you superstitious on number? Well Bursa Malaysia’s counter code is 1818, and it was listed on March 18, 2005. Hmmm…..

Anyhow, is today the beginning of year-end rally?

Banking Sector

The banking counters do not look good. These are my interpretations of the charts:
Affin: Broke monthly support, in the beginning of downtrend. If 1.48 failed to hold, then going into the abyss.
AMMB: In downtrend mode since March 2004. No sign of bottoming yet.
Commerz: Still in uptrend mode, but consolidating now. Possible support at 5.00
EONCap: No opinion
HLBank: Beginning of downtrend. Monthly support broken.
Maybank: In consolidation, still within uptrend support range but may be the beginning of downtrend. Monthly H&S formation.
Mplant: In consolidation, still within uptrend support range but may be the beginning of downtrend. Monthly H&S formation.
PBBank: Within uptrend support. In consolidation.
RHBCap: In uptrend but not much strength.
Sbank: In long term uptrend but currently indication consolidation time.

I’m staying out of banking counters as the charts are all not favourable and do not indicate a rally in the near future.

Reminiscences of a Stock Operator

I'm rereading this book for the 3rd time. I didn't give much thought on Jessy Livermore's thoughts in the previous reads until I found a website discussing it at http://www.zealllc.com/2003/jesse01.htm. There are 8 articles in it (http://www.zealllc.com/othertopics.htm).

This is a very good book which I think all traders should read and analyse it.

Now, I think is a good time to make up my own notes.

Chapter V, Page 68:
"...big money was not in the individual fluctuations but in the main movements - that is, not reading the tape but in sizing up the entire market and its trend."

This is where Jesse Livermore was trying to solve his problem of earning peanuts when he should be earning the big money as his bet was obsolutely correct. Seems like all traders face this same problem.

"...The market does not beat them. They beat themselves, because thought they have brains they cannot sit tight."

You know it is uptrend, your analysis is correct, but you jump in and out trying to squeeze every cents out of it. Your plan is to buy on dips and sell on rallies. But sometimes, that dip never comes and you missed out that really big rally!

"...Disregarding the big swing and trying to jump in and out was fatal to me. Nobody can catch all the fluctuations. In a bull market you game is to buy and hold until you believe that the bull market is near its end."

So be patience and sit through the bull! You are not psychic. Stop looking at the computer screen every minute. Trade less. You do not have to pay your remisier his salary. You should only buy on pullback to increase your position. Why? It's not easy to pick a winner, so when you have a winner, add your position until the end of the road. And when you decide that the end of the road has come, then sell off all. Furthermore...

"...One of the most helpful things that anybody can learn is to give up trying to catch the last eighth - or the first. These two are the most expensive eighths in the world. They have cost stock traders, in aggregate, enough millions of dollars to build a concrete highway across the continent"

You will never be able buy at the lowest or sell at the highest. If it is the lowest or the highest, then it is pure luck. You best bet is to ride on the trend when it has been established and to sell when the trend is showing signs of reversing. There is not point of trying to catch the best price. What is 1 or 2 cents when the big moves are coming? So buy and sell without hesitation. You must have the confidence of acting on your analysis.

Thou Shall Not Hope!

In stock trading, either you are right or you are wrong. There is not such thing like 'hope'.

I knew that I was wrong in buying Sunrise based on technical analysis. This stock is still in downtrend. But I 'hope' that it will go higher. That is why I didn't cut my lost when it bounce up to 1.50. I was 'hoping' of breaking even. It didn't happen. I continue it's journey down. Eventually I have to cut it at 1.39. I could have reduce my lost but I 'hoped'.

When the chart says that we are already dead wrong, we still refused to accept it. Hoping that it will turn around favoring our position. This is not good for a trader. Either you are right about the trend or dead wrong. There is nothing in between.

When I enter a trade and start hoping that it will turn into a profit, then I know that I'm in a bad trade. When I starting to 'hope', that means that my analysis is wrong and I should cut lost fast.

Easier said than done. The ego in us will prevent us from admitting our mistakes. This may cost us our precious capital. But mistakes are common. If you read Daryl Guppy's book, then you will know that the A+ traders are only right in 70% of the trades done.

So stop hoping. If you are wrong, you are wrong, get out, learn your mistake, find another trade and make money!

THGroup

Looks like consolidation is over and continuing the uptrend. Buy signal triggered.

Carotech Resuming Uptrend

Completed 50% retracement at 0.58. Buy signal triggered. Looks like it is resuming the uptrend. Possible target of 0.94/1.29

Oil & Gas Counters

I missed out the O&G rally two years ago. I was just starting to trade then. Never have the guts of chasing shares and was a believer of buying when the price was falling.

The world oil price is fluctuating around USD60. So what's up with our O&G counters?

KNM: Weekly chart shows that it is consolidating. Possible support at 3.00.
Perisai: Sideways.
Ramunia: This one I intepret it as end of bull-run and possibly into consolidation with downside bias. Maybe support at 1.00. It was unable to crack 1.25, forming a double top.
Sapcres: Slowly going down. Avoid!
Scomi: Slowly going down. Avoid!
ScomiMR: Downtrend share. Avoid!
Shell: Uptrend share. In consolidation now. Support at 10.00?
Sumatec: Slowly going down. Avoid!
TgOffs: Uptrend share. Slowly going up. Where can enter ler?
Waseong: Sideways.
Oilcorp: This one oil or fish-oil counter? Anyhow, this one got potential. Currently in consolidation and trading near the possible support of 0.66.

Starting to make mistakes again!

Not a good week for me. The number of mistakes are increasing. Mis-intepreted Farmbes and Timecom. Poor choice on Mbfcorp. Cut lost on Sunrise.

Now looking at Carotec. Maybe the low of 0.58 is the end of correction period. 2 white candles in a roll is a good sign. Wait for T+4 signal to see whether selling pressure will reemerge.

Mesdaq Counters

This is the weekly chart for the Mesdaq market. High of 170 during July 2003 and starting to slid from April 2004. Going back to square one. The monthly MACD is improving. Maybe in 3 to 6 months we will see the bottom. Just maybe……All the Mesdaq counters that I am monitoring is still in downtrend, except for some: Carotech (consolidation), Gpacket (toppish?), Gdex (toppish?), Jobs (uptrend).

Property Counters

This is the weekly chart for the Property Index in Bursa Malaysia. The peak is March 2004. It is still in downtrend and making new low. Still cannot see the bottom. Will avoid all property counters from now onwards, as fear of interest rate hike will affect the sales of property, depressing earnings.

For past mistakes, I have to turn it into “long term” investment lor.

Sunrise

Finally sold out Sunrise with a lost :((

Even with 12 cents dividend coming this November, it is still sliding down slowly. Weekly MACD going into negative zone, this means more downward pressure. Not sure whether the share buyback will stop it or not.

Farmbes, Timecom, MBFCorp, RHB, Carotec, S

What a busy week for me. I was practically not in the market as I was away in Europe for a job interview. So no feelings for any of the blood bath in the market. Anyway, if the market didn’t come down, who will be the greater fool to buy it at a higher price from us?

Farmbes: Didn’t buy because it is not within my buying range. A double top at RM1.02 region? Since the weekly candle is no good, I think that a good entry will be at 0.85-0.90 (if it do continue upwards).

Timecom: Did not cut lost yet. Weekly chart shows that consolidation may be over.

MBFCorp: Still holding. Hard to play penny shares as the trading range is too narrow.

RHB: Back to square one. No signals yet.

Carotech: Daily reversal candle with volume. RM0.62 has been holding well for 3 days. Consolidation over? Weekly chart no more overbought.

Sunrise: Looks like rebound is over. Still in downtrend. Going to exit this counter soon.

Sunrise

Will it be pushed up before the dividend (12 cents) ex-date? Weekly has flashed a buy signal but daily not yet. I bought this one in August after reading some buy call from one of the brokerage (stupid of me for buying so fast) I'm hoping to get something out of this counter. Downtrend resistance at 1.60. So must watch carefully if the price can reach that region. Property counters are not doing well now. Will this counter go against the wind?

Entry: 1.535, 1.45

Farmbes

Resuming the uptrend. Daily/weekly/monthly all positive. This is a speculative counter. Old name is Sinmah. Chicken business. Very high risk. Bird flu can crash it anytime. Berani tak?

PECD, MBFCorp, MTDInfr-WA, RHB, Carotec

PECD: Aiyah, I missed this one. Queued at 0.50 and tak dapat. Try to safe 5 cents lor :p Weekly chart still say up. But daily chart says consolidation. I'm not sure what to do with this one. I give it a passlah.

MBFCorp: Got some at 0.065. Weekly and daily chart still okay. So do nothing. Not much bullet left lor.

MTDInfr-WA: Still in consolidation. Maybe action next week if MTDInfra starting to move again.

RHB: Still in consolidation. Wait for clearer signals to reenter (if got)

Carotec: Weekly candle no good. Consolidation time after an overbought condition. Maybe support at 0.60?