Commerz

Trading at all time high. Will it go higher?

There are 3 CWs that are available. Commerz-CA, Commerz-CB and Commerz-CC. Commerz-CA gearing is low. So out. Between Commerz-CB and Commerz-CC, I choose Commerz-CC because of it's much better daily technical indicators. A possible uptrend in formation. The premium is reasonable as the expiration date is in October. Thus, I took an initial half position and will add if the indicators will close positively for the week.

Spolymr

This company will be eaten by Supermx. The price is RM1.10. Maybe I can earn a few percentage since the market is not so good, at least the price will not drop. Anyway, Supermx is running up the hill. Thus, I took a tiny position in this counter.

BTW, I sold out my KLK-CC as I have detected a bearish divergence in the daily chart for KLK. The profit is so so nia. Hmm...looks like the blues are stalling, my TM is not working well. Will need to make a decision soon.

3pm Selling

Do you notice that selling pressure usually starts to emerge from 3pm and usually lasted about 1 to 1.5 hours? I believe there are 2 reasons for this:
1. Force selling by brokers because someone have forgotten/refused to pay for the shares purchased.
2. Unwinding of position by day traders.

So, what can we do with this fact? I think this depends on your comfortableness. One can buy if the trend is up (if you have the confidence that your analysis is correct). Or one can wait after the selling pressure has subsided for a clearer picture (if you are not so confident of your analysis).

One thing for sure, if you bought in the morning and the price starting to slip in the afternoon, don't get panic (yet), go away and have a cup of tea (since it is tea time) and come back before the market close to see what has happened.

Cresbld & Cresbld-WA

This one is recommended by Sam. Technically, long term charts are pointing upwards. The warrant looks interesting because the expiry date is in 2013. I have taken a small position and will add when the market improves.

2 Years of Blogging

Wau, time flies. It's already 2 years since my first posting on March 19, 2005. I didn't even now whether anybody is reading this blog until I put a stat counter into it today. I was amazed at the number of different IPs coming to this blog. I know my blog is nothing as compare to Moola, Dali, Sam or Ichi. But I'm still amaze at the hit I get.

I think that I'm on of the oldest surviving stock market blog in Malaysia :D. Most of the blogs don't survive long. Well, maybe I should to do some spring cleaning on those inactive blog links.

I'm not sure how long will this blog survive but I shall try to keep it up as long as I'm still trading stocks.

CIMB & Bursa Warrant Portal

Thanks to thethinker, yup, CIMB warrant portals does not work if the browser is Firefox.

BTW, a check with Bursa Malaysia warrant listing shows that the "complimentary period" message is no more! I checked the file creation date and it is 1 day after I posted my blog! Shit, is someone from Bursa is monitoring this blog?! With the current attempt to crackdown on bloggers, I must be careful. One can't trade if the authority harasses you.

TM

Buy signal was generated a few days ago. But my filter didn't catch it until yesterday (must be the computation of precision point problem). All charts are pointing upwards. I will bet on TM-CC. Good gearing even though time is a little bit short. Another choice would be TM-CA. Both are in the money. No signals yet from the CW. With a drop of 35 points, do you dare to take the bet?

Health for Trading

Weekend spent with diarrhea, I still fell terrible. No appetite to eat, slight headache and fever and little bit short of breath. Health is very important, without good health, one cannot think properly. When one cannot think properly, one cannot see the market properly, this is bad for ones account.

When I recover from this, I will make sure that I will spend more time exercising.

Anyway, my KLK-CC finally moves above my purchase price. Hopefully it will move more. L&G is quite volatile, large swing each day. Paperly, I am even with this counter. Just hanging on as the long term chart is quite promising.

Kuala Lumpur Kepong (KLK)

Why expensive stocks keeps getting more expensive? Digi @ RM19, IOI @ RM23, Genting @ RM40?

Because the big boys are buying it. The foreigners cannot be bother with cheap shares because they got too much money. So we must play the big boys share. But 1 lot of these will cost us a fortune (for ikan bilis player like me). The solution is to go for the CWs.


KLK caught my attention. Monthly chart still pointing upwards. With bullish CPO, how high can it go? I got 3 choices, -CA, -CB, -CC. I don't like 10 to 1 ratio CW, so -CB is out. Comparing -CA and -CC, I choose -CC because the gearing is higher even though the expiration date is shorter by 2 months. Actually, I wanted to buy this earlier but forgot to monitor. A look at -CC chart shows that an uptrend has been established. After consolidating at around 0.40, looks like it is moving again. Let's see how far can KLK goes.

Warrant Info

Basically, I know of 3 websites where one can find the information concerning the warrants traded in Bursa Malaysia.

1. CIMB Warrants Portal
This site is practically useless. I cannot imagine Nazir dare to launch it. The draw chart doesn't work. All top menu links never works. No messages to tell me I must log on to use the functionality. Maybe it is only for CIMB customers. No account, no go.

2. OSK CW Table
This is a good list of CW traded. But be careful, sometimes the info could be wrong, i.e. exercise ratio (comes and go). The drawback is the size of the file. It's a .bmp file named in .jpg extension. The actual size of the file is a whooping 2.8MB! Wah-lau-eh, didn't someone tell the person in-charge to compress it properly? For other warrant prices, sorry lar...got to be an OSK customer only can access.

3. Bursa Malaysia
Finally Bursa has a list of warrant traded. A little bit of improvement.The only thing is that it is only updated once a month. Yusli, make it more sophisticated-lah. MSC every where, I'm sure it can be more canggih. BTW, if you click on March listing, you will see this embarrassing message:

No money to buy? Google-lah for a free pdf creator.

KLCI @ 2000?

The gaps refused to be closed. KLCI is moving up higher each day and approaching the 70s region.

Some analyst give a target of 1400 for this year

Well, looking at the monthly chart, this is my outrageous interpretation.

Warning: You are reminded that the eye will see what the mind wants to see. I'm not a professional analyst. This is just an amateur attempt to pass some time.

So looking at the chart, I see a symmetrical triangle formation. The breakout from this triangle occurs about 2/3 from the centre of the triangle. According to the triangle theory, this is a strong break. However, due to rumours, Yen-carry trade and subprime fear, we can see that the index tested the upper resistance/support of the triangle and bounced from it. So the break is valid.

Now, if I consider the start of this triangle which is the low of 300, draw a line to upper resistance of 1200, gives a total difference of 900. According to triangle theory again, the upside projection when the triangle is broken is 1100 + 900 = 2000!

That's it, my prediction for the next 6-18 months, the KLCI value is 2000. When? I don't know. If it didn't reach 2000 in a year or two, nobody will curse me because most of you will have forgotten. Even I would have forgotten :p But if it reaches, maybe someone will remember and think that I'm Bursa God :D.

P.S. If the foreigner keeps pushing due to the appreciation of the Ringgit, this may come true after all.

Awards & Dream

I'm thinking, every year, awards are giving to the best stock analyst, best unit trust, best return...best of everthing etc. It's good to celebrate when ones call turns out to be making money. But why there are no awards given for worst call, worst unit trust, worst return etc?

Are the industry hoping that everyone will forget about their bad calls and sweep it under the carpet? If we know who is the best, we should have the right to know who is the worst, right?

Aha....I think the reason is because the brokerage/stock market industry wants to sell us a dream. An illusion that this is the place to make money. But with equal number of bad apples going around, it is not easy. But nobody is telling you. Either you are the best, or you perish in this world. I wonder who are the people that consistently makes money.

Meanwhile, I'm still holding on to my dream.

Push and Dump?

Why am I having this feeling that the stocks are pushed and dumped? Many stocks just go up for 1 day and then it started to drive slowly down. One day show. No continuing energy. This happens in rotation, from one group of counters to another new group.

What is happening?

The worst is over?

According to my system, a buy signal was generated yesterday. Daily chart looks good. Normally, I will have a bullish view, but we have 2 gaps at 1137 and 1196.Furthermore, the weekly charts have not yet pointing upwards. Will KLCI defy the traditional downtrend during the period Apr to Aug?

Gap, gap, gap

Gap here and there. Down gap, up gap. I just hate gaps.

My speculation with Media and Astro turned out bad. Time to move on.

Hop into Mems, Notion and L&G. Mems chart shows that the selling pressure will be coming soon, it has gone up for the last 3 days with less volume. Rumor becomes truth. What will be next?

Property is hot due to rumor again. Will the rumor also becomes truth? I still need to clear off L&G from my portfolio.

Notion seems to be moving from the base of 0.545. Biggest hard disk manufacturer may be listing in Malaysia after all. Another rumor.

For me, I buy base on technicals. I only see how does the rumor form the technicals.

Other watch list: Samudra seems to have broken out of downtrend channel. A good based may have formed at 0.90. It gapped up with a black candle today. That is why I didn't buy.

2nd Wave of Selling

What an education for the investors. First we learn about carry trade. Now, we got this thing called sub-prime lenders.

The KLCI chart is pretty messy now. All indicators saying different things. It means nobody knows for certain what will happen next.

My observations:
1. The KLCI rebounded up to 61% retracement
2. Volume continues to fall
3. Weekly MACD goes negative

My intepretations:
1. Good chance of gap covering soon
2. Long term uptrend still intact but possibly we can go to 1070-1100 again
3. Most sellers has gotten out, hanging now are the long term investors

No long term buy signal yet. But some stocks just puzzles me, such as Mems. What's up?

Rebounding...

My observation based on daily chart:
1. KLCI has rebounded to around 55% according to EW theory.
2. Some selling can be seen as this level.
3. There is a gap between 1137 and 1144
4. Volume continues to fall
5. MACD still in negative

My intepretation:
1. The worst is still not yet over, possible gap cover.

However, it seems that the play is still on for hot counters like asiaep, quest etc.

So I think not all will go done if the index moves south. Do you see anything interesting counters?

Green today!

Finally something green. I felt so relieve today.

Looking at the chart, I have noted the following:
1. Daily RSI very oversold
2. Daily chart shows a bullish harami
3. Weekly chart shows that 50% retracement has occurred for the move from 883 to 1285
4. The index bounced from 30 Week EMA

My interpretation:
1. Possible temporary bottom at 1090
2. May move up to 1170 - 1210
3. Then maybe another wave of selling for those that are slow in getting out
4. Continuation of bullishess is still too early to tell.

Maybe there will be some short term trading opportunity. I'm going to switch my indicator to RSI and candlestick for some short term trading.

I forgot my own rules

Slow in, fast out. That is one of my rules. When you have to run, you have to run really fast. The drop in equity was too fast for me to react. I lost 20% just for last week. All gains has been wipe out. Now, protecting capital is the number 1 thing in my mind. Rebound? Still no sign. I bet everyone is waiting to get out when it rebounds. Who will be the smarter one?

Money come, money go. But will we learn our lessons?

Panic

Now I'm feeling panic. Prices continue to drop. Thought market can rebound but rebound didn't last more than a few hours. Continue sliding down. Huge paper profit becomes even trade and now worse. The last to sell will sell at the low.