Black September/October?

The stock market is on the verge of going off a cliff. It all rest on that USD700 billion bailout. Yes or no? Will it work?

Looking at our market:

Malaysia	Longterm	Midterm	Shorterm
KLCI	Down	Down	Down
Finance	Down	Down	Down
Construction	Down	Down	Down
Plantation	Down	Down	Down
Property	Down	Down	Down
Mesdaq	Down	Down	Down
2nd Board	Down	Down	Down

For selected markets around the world:

World	Longterm	Midterm	Shorterm
S&P500	Down	Down	Down
DJI	Down	Down	Down
NasdaqComp	Down	Down	Down
Nikkei 225	Down	Down	Down
Kospi	Down	Down	Neutral (+)
SSECI	Down	Down	Neutral (+)
HSI	Down	Down	Down
TWII	Down	Down	Down
STI	Down	Down	Down
SENSEX	Down	Down	Down
FTSE	Down	Down	Down
DAX	Down	Down	Down

If want to know how did it all happened, this talk that was conducted at Princeton may help your understanding.

Bad Money

An interview with Kevin Phillips, the author of Bad Money: Reckless Finance, Failed Politics And The Global Crisis of American Capitalism. 

Out of touch, out of fear

Oh boy. I was disconnected from the Internet when all these things happened. Why such volatility? Well, if you have traded US options, you will know that around expiration week, things can get really wild. Sept 19 was the expiration date for the Sept options. Things really got wild. Didn't really able to profit anything. Anyway, the charts are still down.

Malaysia	Longterm	Midterm	Shorterm
KLCI	Down	Down	Down
Finance	Down	Down	Down
Construction	Down	Down	Down
Plantation	Down	Down	Down
Property	Down	Down	Down
Mesdaq	Down	Down	Down
2nd Board	Down	Down	Down

If you know candlestick analysis, then you can see a very long shadow for the KLCI chart. This indicates an extreme condition and may signal market reversal. Lets wait and see what happens next week.

World	Longterm	Midterm	Shorterm
S&P500	Down	Down	Down
DJI	Down	Down	Down
NasdaqComp	Down	Down	Down
Nikkei 225	Down	Down	Down
Kospi	Down	Down	Down (-)
SSECI	Down	Down	Down
HSI	Down	Down	Down
TWII	Down	Down	Down
STI	Down	Down	Down
SENSEX	Down	Down	Down
FTSE	Down	Down	Down
DAX	Down	Down	Down

If you do momentum analysis, you can detect some bullish divergence in the chart. This indicates that the sell down is getting weaker.

I think that if a bull is to emerge from this, it still requires many months to establish a base. My strategy is to let the contratrians do the work of creating that base first. If they are successful, then of course I'll join them. If they fail, then I'll just watch what a fool they are.

Sector and World Indexes (20080912)

Everything is still pointing down.

Malaysia	Longterm	Midterm	Shorterm
KLCI	Down	Down	Down
Finance	Down	Down	Down (-)
Construction	Down	Down	Down
Plantation	Down	Down	Down
Property	Down	Down	Down
Mesdaq	Down	Down	Down
2nd Board	Down	Down	Down

World	Longterm	Midterm	Shorterm
S&P500	Down	Down	Down
DJI	Down	Down	Down
NasdaqComp	Down	Down	Down
Nikkei 225	Down	Down	Down
Kospi	Down	Down	Neutral (+)
SSECI	Down	Down	Down
HSI	Down	Down	Down
TWII	Down	Down	Down
STI	Down	Down	Down
SENSEX	Down	Down (-)	Down (-)
FTSE	Down	Down	Down
DAX	Down	Down	Down

Mortgage Crisis Blues

World Market (20080905)

My interpretation for selected world market. Generally turning down again. Will we have a major crash somewhere between September and October?

World	Longterm	Midterm	Shorterm
S&P500	Down	Down	Down (-)
DJI	Down	Down	Down (-)
NasdaqComp	Down	Down (-)	Down (-)
Nikkei 225	Down	Down	Down (-)
Kospi	Down	Down	Down
SSECI	Down	Down	Down
HSI	Down	Down	Down (-)
TWII	Down	Down	Down
STI	Down	Down	Down
SENSEX	Down	Neutral	Neutral
FTSE	Down	Down (-)	Down (-)
DAX	Down	Down	Down (-)

Sector Indexes (20080905)

Things have turned back to worse.

Malaysia	Longterm	Midterm	Shorterm
KLCI	Down	Down	Down (-)
Finance	Down	Down	Neutral
Construction	Down	Down	Down
Plantation	Down	Down	Down (-)
Property	Down	Down	Down (-)
Mesdaq	Down	Down	Down
2nd Board	Down	Down	Down

Where is the bottom?

HSI Monthly Chart

The last uptrend line that I managed to draw has been broken for HSI. Next possible support is at 18,000.

SSECI Monthly Chart

For SSECI, it is currently at a supposed support level. Next one maybe at 1,700. I pity those Chinese investors. 

KLCI Monthly Chart

For KLCI, we are going to test the last uptrend line soon. If other exchanges are breaking every possible uptrend support, what are our chances?

Sector Indexes (20080829)

Is it going to be only a one day push up? My interpretation for selected sector indexes:

Malaysia	Longterm	Midterm	Shorterm
KLCI	Down	Down	Neutral (+)
Finance	Down	Down	Neutral (+)
Construction	Down	Down	Down
Plantation	Down	Down	Neutral (+)
Property	Down	Down	Neutral (+)
Mesdaq	Down	Down	Down
2nd Board	Down	Down	Down

For the rest of the world:

World	Longterm	Midterm	Shorterm
S&P500	Down	Down	Neutral
DJI	Down	Down	Neutral
NasdaqComp	Down	Neutral	Neutral
Nikkei 225	Down	Down	Neutral (+)
Kospi	Down	Down	Down
SSECI	Down	Down	Down
HSI	Down	Down	Neutral (+)
TWII	Down	Down	Down
STI	Down	Down	Down
SENSEX	Down	Neutral	Neutral
FTSE	Down	Neutral (+)	Up (+)
DAX	Down	Down	Neutral (+)

The Crash of 1929

An excellent documentary.

Sector Indexes (20080822)

Sector summary for the week ending 22 Aug 2008. Everything is still pointing down.

Malaysia	Longterm	Midterm	Shorterm
KLCI	Down	Down	Down
Finance	Down	Down	Down
Construction	Down	Down	Down (-)
Plantation	Down	Down	Down
Property	Down	Down	Down
Mesdaq	Down	Down	Down
2nd Board	Down	Down	Down

World Indexes

My interpretation for the week ending 15 Aug 2008.

World	Longterm	Midterm	Shorterm
S&P500	Down	Down	Neutral
DJI	Down	Down	Neutral
NasdaqComp	Down	Neutral	Up (+)
Nikkei 225	Down	Down	Down
Kospi	Down	Down	Down
SSECI	Down	Down	Down
HSI	Down	Down	Down
TWII	Down	Down	Neutral
STI	Down	Down	Down
SENSEX	Down	Neutral	Neutral
FTSE	Down	Down	Neutral
DAX	Down	Down	Neutral

Glitter

Ok, it's not KLSE glitter. It's our first silver/gold Olympic medal in more than 12 years. Chong Wei, make us proud man! We all hope that you will give us the joy among the gloom and doom.

Malaysia	Longterm	Midterm	Shorterm
KLCI	Down	Down	Down
Finance	Down	Down	Down (-)
Construction	Down	Down	Neutral
Plantation	Down	Down	Down
Property	Down	Down	Down
Mesdaq	Down	Down	Down (-)
2nd Board	Down	Down	Down

Weekly Index Analysis

First of all, I must congratulate the organizing committee for the Summer 2008 Olympics for producing such a spectacular opening ceremony. Well done!

Back to business. Looks like KLCI is still not in a good shape.

Malaysia	Longterm	Midterm	Shorterm
KLCI	Down	Down	Down (-)
Finance	Down	Down	Neutral
Construction	Down	Down	Neutral
Plantation	Down	Down	Down (-)
Property	Down	Down	Down (-)
Mesdaq	Down	Down	Neutral
2nd Board	Down	Down	Down

For other markets, the readings are mixed.

World	Longterm	Midterm	Shorterm
S&P500	Down	Down	Neutral
DJI	Down	Down	Neutral (+)
NasdaqComp	Down	Neutral (+)	Neutral
Nikkei 225	Down	Down	Down
Kospi	Down	Down	Down
SSECI	Down	Down	Down
HSI	Down	Down	Down (-)
TWII	Down	Down	Neutral (+)
STI	Down	Down	Down
SENSEX	Down	Neutral (+)	Neutral
FTSE	Down	Down	Neutral
DAX	Down	Down	Neutral

It is hard to read the market. I'm still staying out of Bursa Malaysia.

Hedge Fund

New York's Top-100 hedge funds are feeling the pain too in this year's downtrend. Read the news here.

Make or Break Again?

KLCI Weekly Chart

KLCI is just under the downtrend line. Can it break to the upside or continue going down?

The summary for various sectors:

Malaysia	Longterm	Midterm	Shorterm
KLCI	Down	Down	Neutral
Finance	Down	Down	Neutral
Construction	Down	Down	Neutral
Plantation	Down	Down	Neutral (+)
Property	Down	Down	Neutral
Mesdaq	Down	Down	Neutral
2nd Board	Down	Down	Down (-)

Looks like the plantation sector has stabilize somewhat but the 2nd board sector has turned down again. Only Tenaga looks interesting for shorterm trade.

For the rest of the world, the reading is mixed:

World	Longterm	Midterm	Shorterm
S&P500	Down	Down	Neutral
DJI	Down	Down	Down
NasdaqComp	Down	Down	Neutral
Nikkei 225	Down	Down	Down (-)
Kospi	Down	Down	Down (-)
SSECI	Down	Down	Down (-)
HSI	Down	Down	Neutral
TWII	Down	Down	Down (-)
STI	Down	Down	Down (-)
SENSEX	Down	Down	Neutral
FTSE	Down	Down	Neutral
DAX	Down	Down	Neutral

Mastercard Commercial

Another good laugh. This time from Mastercard.

Speculation

I like Julie. You know what I mean when you watch the video. Anyway, in this video, she talks about speculation which has now become an "evil" thing.