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Friday, August 25, 2006

Gamuda, Frontkn, Favco


Gamuda: The bull are still pushing up higher. It should rechallenge 4.26 again. Monthly chart -> all says going up. A good leverage is Gamuda-WC (Ex price RM3.75, Ex date 21 Aug 2007). However, it is stuck in a symmetrical triangle (from daily chart) and almost reaching its apex. So technically, any breakout will not be strong.


Frontkn: Maybe this time it will go up. Candles are white, EMA are up. A good sign?


Favco: Broken the down trendline? A strong confirmation is a close above 0.76.

Thursday, August 24, 2006

Boring game

I'm bored. The index is inching up. But the general market is going nowhere. Stocks are just like human, they have very short attention time. Most of the time, they just wonder aimlessly.

I'm just doing ok with my selection. Wellcal amazed me. SimeEng not moving. Cepat is like a rollercoaster. Mems is full of suspicious queues (sekejap ada, sekejap tak ada).

I sold out with a lost for Bahvest and LNGres. Bahvest is slowly sinking. LNGres is trapped in range.

Gamuda may show signs of uptrend. Not yet confirm. The warrant will be a good play (Gamuda-wc). Maemode also attracted my attention, the warrant is also a good play.

When nobody is buying, it is time to go shopping. Buy when the queue is low (of course the long term trend must be up). When everyone is buying, take a seat and watch their action. Remember, the crowd is always wrong.

So, I'm still waiting. It is a boring game.

Monday, August 21, 2006

KLCI, Mesdaq, Construction & 2nd Board Index


KLCI: Bulls are getting tired. Possible correction to 930-935 area.


Mesdaq: Looks like a breakdown. The bears are winning. Need a new leader to replace Iris and Mobif.


Construction: Bulls and bears in equal strength.


2nd Board: The bears are still in control.

Monday, August 14, 2006

Mems, GHLSys & Frontken


Mems: Looks like the bulls has broken through 0.495 with good volume.


GHLSys: The bulls maybe winning. Still no buy signal yet.


Frontken: The bears are still in charge. The 4 Aug 06 signal was just a bull shit. This shows that relaying only on candlestick analysis is not 100% accurate, must used it with other Western indicators. The more indicators that says the same thing, the better.

Thursday, August 10, 2006

Volume in Iris

I just gone through the share holding change for Iris. I must remind you that the following data cannot be verify 100% as I got it from a 3rd party:

3 Aug 06 - Total volume transacted for Iris is 1,363,167 lots
PB Priam transaction for that day:
Acquired 461,947 lots
Disposed 637, 596 lots
Total 1,099,543 lots

If my calculation and assumption are correct, that means only one fund activities is creating 77% of the total transaction! Wow! Can this be real? Is there hidden meanings in this? I don't know.

Wednesday, August 09, 2006

Waiting for the bull

Waiting, waiting and waiting. KLCI index is moving up slowly but the volume is shrinking.

Will there be a pre-budget rally? Chart wise indicates it is still going up. Nobody dares to buy. The Iris sentiment is still influencing the market. This counter is game over. Who will be the next leader?

Monday, August 07, 2006

Losing in Unit Trust

Did you read the story about EPF contributors losing their shirt in unit trush schemes? It says "...80% of EPF contributors who invested their savings in unit trusts posted losses totalling RM600 million". Wow!

What happened? How can so called professionals with degrees and certifications lose? The answer is they are just human. Human makes mistakes. So are they. And not all of them are good. Maybe 5% of the funds are good but the rest are rubbish that only knows how to fatten their own purse.

The first question to ask is: Is it worth the risk paying them to earn an extra few percent return above EPF return?

In my honest opinion, it depends on how good are they. If they can return 20% yearly, I would say it is worth the risk. If the return is less than 10%, then I think it is safer putting your money in EPF than letting them handling it. If they can give you that return in a good market, imagine what will they give you in a bad one.

The next question is how do you know they are good? Well look for information about their pass performance. They ask about who are the fund managers. Always keep track of this important person. This is not easy as you will only know this when you get your quarterly interim report.

The next thing to do is never trust the person trying to sell you any trust fund products. They are just sales person whose income depends on sales. Maybe only a few are honest. It is better deal with a person that is independent from any funds as his opinion will not be bias.

Investing is not easy if you are the lazy type that just wants to put your money in and forget about it for the rest of the year. You need to be active and pay attention to your portfolio. In other words, you still need to do your home work.

Notion, BCTTech & Bahvest


Notion: Still in uptrend. Consolidation at 0.45.


BCTTech: The bears are gaining in strength.


Bahvest: Another attempt by the bulls today. Will the bulls be able to succeed this time? Trigger point at 0.285. A concern is that the chart looks like a descending triangle - which is a bearish formation.

Friday, August 04, 2006

Wellcal, SimeEng & Frontken


Wellcal: Everyday goes up 1-2 cents. Still in uptrend.


SimeEng: Good close today. The pattern suggest that it should rechallenge 1.52. Any weakness is a good buy.


Frontken: Looks like it has found a possible bottom at 0.315. Daily chart -> bullish reversal candle. It may possibly head higher from here.

Thursday, August 03, 2006

UEMBldr, IJM & Gamuda


UEMBldr: Opened with gap up. Trying to go higher but selling is still strong. A close above 1.33 is a good signal that it will rechallenge the previous high of 1.54.


IJM: Monthly in uptrend but weekly shows consolidation.


Gamuda: Still in downtrend.

Wednesday, August 02, 2006

THGroup, Kretam & Cepat


THGroup: Still under downtrend line.


Kretam: Fast run up. Weekly reading-> Overbought. To cover gap? Daily reading-> Correction soon.



Cepat: Weekly reading-> Good chance of going higher. Daily reading-> Based on candlestick, expect pullback. A close above 0.895 will confirm the uptrend.

Tuesday, August 01, 2006

Mems, Impress & Bahvest


Mems: Slowly being pushed up. Still in uptrend. Trigger point is 0.495.


Impress: Moving up. Any weakness is a good buy.


Bahvest: Got potential. Breakout trigger point is 0.285, the opposite is 0.26.

Book arrived

I received my The Complete Trading For A Living from Amazon today.

I guess that this weekend will be spent reading this book. It is just a very dry month for me. The market is tough, and I'm getting bad. Time to relook at myself.

Wednesday, July 26, 2006

KLCI, Novamsc & SimeEng


KLCI: My daily buy signal is triggered today. From the chart, looks like the next major resistance is at 980-1000.


Novamsc: Consolidation over? A close above 0.13 will give it a better chance of going up.


SimeEng: Making a move again. Looks like the move is before the 1 billion contract announcement.

Tenaga, Nscom & AMDB


Tenaga: Technically in uptrend. But hard to intepret the next possible move. Furthermore, it is moving really slow. If it really moves, then it is good to play the covered warrants.

Nscom:No potential at all.

AMDB: Looks like building a base for the next up move. No buy signal yet.

Monday, July 24, 2006

Tebrau, Magnum & Keuro


Tebrau: Long term uptrend. Still under correction. Possible support at 0.45-0.50.


Magnum: Monthly chart above shows that it is still to early to say that the downtrend has ended.


Keuro: The worst is over? Good potential to move, but no buy signal yet.

Sunday, July 23, 2006

AirAsia, Frontkn & RSawit


AirAsia: Not a pretty picture. In downtrend mode.


Frontkn: Consolidation? Volume reducing on the way down. On watch.


RSawit: New counter, moving up again. To break new high?

Thursday, July 20, 2006

Ranhill, Notion & LNGRes


Ranhill: Still in downtrend.


Notion: Price adjusted for 1:1 bonus. Is it going to break the previous high of 0.53? A buy signal if it can break 0.53.



LNGRes: Trap in a tight range. A close above 0.36 is a good buy signal.

Leader & Measat


Leader: What's up with this counter. Suddenly high volume. I think that it has broken the downtrend line. Base building at 0.36 level? My buy signal has not yet been triggered.

Measat: Ready for lift off? Satellite launch in Nov 2006 - Jan 2007? Good base building at 1.60 level. Volume too low to make any good analysis.

Titan & Megan


Titan: Downtrend since day 1 of listing. Can you trust the prospectus painted with rosy picture?


Megan: Downtrend for 2 years!

Mesdaq


This is the reason I am concentrating on Mesdaq counters. It is still in an uptrend. I don't inteprete a double top has been formed at 130 because past data shows usually the weekly RSI has to hit oversold twice before peaking.

Mems, Flonic, Bahvest


Mems: I consider Mems has broken out of the downtrend. Currently building base for the next up move. If it is able to break 0.57, EWT target are 0.81/1.06.


Flonic: Sinking slowly.


Bahvest :Got tricked into buying last month. Wrong intepretation of chart. Currently consolidating between 0.26 and 0.295. Large buy volume is mystifying. Signals are all mixed, that's explain the tight consolidation range. I think a close above 0.30 is a good signal to buy.

Wednesday, July 19, 2006

HIL


Chart indicates it has broken out of the downtrend. Consolidation may be over and will be confirm when it overcomes 0.47. Charts indicators are mixed currently but with upside bias.

GHLSys


Long term charts indicates the uptrend is still intact. Currently consolidation. Monthly price should not close below 0.20 for the uptrend to continue. No buy signal yet.

Poor Months

What a poor month since May. Just can't make any money. Speculative issues moves so fast. I'm just not suitable to play these counters.

My capital is limited. Don't think I can made a million in 5 years time. How can I increase my income?

Okay...from this week onwards I will post my technical analysis of the hottest and not so hot counters. I'm not a guru, so beware of my opinion.

Book

Ordered a new book from amazon.com today. The title is
The Complete Trading for a Living: The Legendary Approach to Trading with the Companion Study Guide

Only USD40 after 50% discount! A good bargain.

Monday, July 10, 2006

Out of tune

World Cup is over. I was really disappointed with Zidane. Does he think that he is playing Shaolin football?

Back to the market. I am really out of touch with the stock movement. Missed out all the great moves. My indicators are just not suited for fast velocity movements. Anyhow, I'm just not convince of the Bursa strength. The different period indicators are all telling a different story, I just don't know how to intepret them.

Wednesday, July 05, 2006

Just a rebound?

My weekly charts says that the recent gain for KLCI is just another rebound. Uptrend not yet confirm. Thus I'm adopting a cautious stand. Will not do heavy trading until the picture is much clearer. The market needs to retrace first before any continuation of upward movement if the trend is up.

Sunday, June 25, 2006

in football mood

Still in football mood, yesterday's Argentina goal against Mexico was superb!

Just finishing updating my stock data. Finish looking at part of the charts and most are in rebound mode. Nothing interesting except Bahvest.

Bahvest is still in long term up, could be making another challenge.

About this half year window dressing....hmmm why do fund managers need window dressing? Are they so lousy until they need to create a false impression of their performance?

Wednesday, May 31, 2006

waseong

This counter looks like it has completed it's 1.5 years of consolidation. Monthly chart indicates uptrend.

Tuesday, May 30, 2006

Thought for the Day

I can accept failure.
Everyone fails at something.
But I cannot accept not trying.
- Michael Jordan

I've just met the 3rd person that lost heavily in stocks. He is out of the game now. And working hard for the rest of his life for his old age plan.

Pretty scary isn't it? I think that stock market is just like the wild. Natural selection will weed out the weak. Only the best 10% will survife. The other 90% will contribute to the 10%'s profit. Since there are always new players entering the market each year, this will continue to feed the top 10%.

If you lose money, stop and think. What have you done? If you found out the wrong moves, then avoid them. Insanity is doing something same over and over again expecting different result. God gave us the greatest organ: the brain. Use it. Don't simply shoot.

Ah...the market.....sideways now. Zzzzzz.......

Sunday, May 21, 2006

KLCI is Kaputt

My reading is that KLCI is going lower (okay - everyone also knows that). Any possible rebound (if any) is a good time to sell. What good news to support and push up the index? 1Q result are so-so. Dow is going down. The uptrend which started in December is over (6 months of rally) - I base this reading from the Weekly RSI trendline. I guess next support is at 930, 910, 880. The punters are all preparing for the World Cup. Bursa Malaysia will be lifeless. Many people will have "panda" eyes.

The most important point now is to protect capital. Will take any advantage of rally to sell. Most probably the rebound won't go pass 960. Last week sell down was very fast. What can I do to avoid this? I can't read the future. What tools can I use?

Anyway, generally the market is down, but there may be a few that goes against the market. This will require a hit-and-run strategy. No pyramiding strategy as the momentum will be fast. One such counter is Bahvest. Looks like moving up. This will be confirmed if 0.30 is taken out. I think Bahvest is in the aquaculture industry. Food counters are rallying due to the 9th Malaysian plan. Could this be the next?

Jotech result were dissappointing. The earning were less than last quarter. However, Sapcres may have more room to go.

Friday, May 19, 2006

Winning becomes losing

The greatest mistake I have done this week is to allow my winning trades to become losing trades. To add salt into my wound, I bottom fished. Oh boy, it will be a tough one to handle. One big profit are eaten away by many small loses.

Time to stop trading and analyse my mistakes.

Tuesday, May 16, 2006

Buying instead of dumping

Everyone is dumping but I have decided to buy a little bit based on long term charts and also the emerging of buying strength late in the afternoon session. When the panic dissipates, the market should continue it's uptrend.

Stll looking for new bulls. Who may it be?

Monday, May 15, 2006

Stops hit

A few of my stops have been hit. Cutting off now as I don't want to violate my own rules.

CI still holding well with last minute support. Maybe it will rechallenge 970 once more.....

Old bulls are gone: Carotech, Oilcorp. Will new one emerge? Or must we wait until the World Cup is over? If that is the case, then we must wait until summer is over as usually this is a down period (May to October).

As I said before, the crowd is always wrong. When there is an extremely high volume with new high price, it is time to get out. I implemented this new strategy with Oilcorp and manage to get out before it crashes.

Thursday, May 11, 2006

Iris and CI

Too bad I'm out of Iris long time ago. If you buy at 10 cents, you would have made 1300%! What a staggering amount. And so Bursa decided to designated this counter: money first before buying.

What will be the effect on CI? CI still failed to break the upper resistance level (679). Most probably pullback since the taiko needs money for World Cup football.

Sentiment could be bad on Monday. On the brighter side, look for counters that stand out among the losers. It could be another new oppurtunity.

BTW, tomorrow is Wesak Day. Don't forget to donate some of your earnings for the unfortunate. Happy Wesak Day everyone.

Tuesday, May 09, 2006

970 Barrier

970 is an important point. Break it and it is confirmed that we have a new bull which may go to 1000, if not, then we shall go back to the lower end.

Saturday, May 06, 2006

Isolation

It's almost 1 month already since I have visited any discussion forums. I feel so calm now. No noise to emotionally charge my opinion. All I do not is by technical analysis. I have a list of my favorite stocks, some are moving, some are staying put. I'm just waiting for the right signals. No more jumping in and out. Just pyramiding my holding.

I still download the daily reports from brokerage firms. But I just give a quick glance and then saved it in my computer.

Have you read the book by Nicolas Darvas's book "How I Made $2 Million in the Stock Market"? Good read. I'm applying his isolation strategy.

Wednesday, May 03, 2006

Technology Sector

Technology counters continue to move up. The Tech Index is making new high.

My favourite is Jotech. But it has risen too fast. Financial result coming out this month. Can it be like LKT?

Notion also moved up too fast. Both Jotech and Notion gap up. How do you intepret a gap up? Will it close the gap? Cannot find my saved article about gap up play.

Mems consolidation over? Broken the downtrend channel finally?

Oilcorp is under base building again. Long term trend is still up.

Counters that are not working to expectation is AMMB-WB and Hil-WA. Still waiting for the big move.

Speculative counters that are sucking away my attention due to my past mistakes: L&G, Hwgb, Ngiukee-wa, TA-wb and Sitatt. Still waiting to breakeven.

Will avoid in adding new counters as I find that I'm unable to monitor so many. I will try to reduce it to under 10 and try to pick the best. To manage my risk, my strategy is to pick companies with improving fundamentals and not those speculative one anymore. Still need more time to do spring cleaning.

Oh...World Cup is coming. Time for football. Will that mean a dull stock market?