AirAsia, Frontkn & RSawit

AirAsia: Not a pretty picture. In downtrend mode.


Frontkn: Consolidation? Volume reducing on the way down. On watch.


RSawit: New counter, moving up again. To break new high?

Ranhill, Notion & LNGRes

Ranhill: Still in downtrend.


Notion: Price adjusted for 1:1 bonus. Is it going to break the previous high of 0.53? A buy signal if it can break 0.53.



LNGRes: Trap in a tight range. A close above 0.36 is a good buy signal.

Leader & Measat

Leader: What's up with this counter. Suddenly high volume. I think that it has broken the downtrend line. Base building at 0.36 level? My buy signal has not yet been triggered.

Measat: Ready for lift off? Satellite launch in Nov 2006 - Jan 2007? Good base building at 1.60 level. Volume too low to make any good analysis.

Titan & Megan

Titan: Downtrend since day 1 of listing. Can you trust the prospectus painted with rosy picture?


Megan: Downtrend for 2 years!

Mesdaq

This is the reason I am concentrating on Mesdaq counters. It is still in an uptrend. I don't inteprete a double top has been formed at 130 because past data shows usually the weekly RSI has to hit oversold twice before peaking.

Mems, Flonic, Bahvest

Mems: I consider Mems has broken out of the downtrend. Currently building base for the next up move. If it is able to break 0.57, EWT target are 0.81/1.06.


Flonic: Sinking slowly.


Bahvest :Got tricked into buying last month. Wrong intepretation of chart. Currently consolidating between 0.26 and 0.295. Large buy volume is mystifying. Signals are all mixed, that's explain the tight consolidation range. I think a close above 0.30 is a good signal to buy.

HIL

Chart indicates it has broken out of the downtrend. Consolidation may be over and will be confirm when it overcomes 0.47. Charts indicators are mixed currently but with upside bias.

GHLSys

Long term charts indicates the uptrend is still intact. Currently consolidation. Monthly price should not close below 0.20 for the uptrend to continue. No buy signal yet.

Poor Months

What a poor month since May. Just can't make any money. Speculative issues moves so fast. I'm just not suitable to play these counters.

My capital is limited. Don't think I can made a million in 5 years time. How can I increase my income?

Okay...from this week onwards I will post my technical analysis of the hottest and not so hot counters. I'm not a guru, so beware of my opinion.

Book

Ordered a new book from amazon.com today. The title is
The Complete Trading for a Living: The Legendary Approach to Trading with the Companion Study Guide

Only USD40 after 50% discount! A good bargain.

Out of tune

World Cup is over. I was really disappointed with Zidane. Does he think that he is playing Shaolin football?

Back to the market. I am really out of touch with the stock movement. Missed out all the great moves. My indicators are just not suited for fast velocity movements. Anyhow, I'm just not convince of the Bursa strength. The different period indicators are all telling a different story, I just don't know how to intepret them.

Just a rebound?

My weekly charts says that the recent gain for KLCI is just another rebound. Uptrend not yet confirm. Thus I'm adopting a cautious stand. Will not do heavy trading until the picture is much clearer. The market needs to retrace first before any continuation of upward movement if the trend is up.

in football mood

Still in football mood, yesterday's Argentina goal against Mexico was superb!

Just finishing updating my stock data. Finish looking at part of the charts and most are in rebound mode. Nothing interesting except Bahvest.

Bahvest is still in long term up, could be making another challenge.

About this half year window dressing....hmmm why do fund managers need window dressing? Are they so lousy until they need to create a false impression of their performance?

waseong

This counter looks like it has completed it's 1.5 years of consolidation. Monthly chart indicates uptrend.

Thought for the Day

I can accept failure.
Everyone fails at something.
But I cannot accept not trying.
- Michael Jordan

I've just met the 3rd person that lost heavily in stocks. He is out of the game now. And working hard for the rest of his life for his old age plan.

Pretty scary isn't it? I think that stock market is just like the wild. Natural selection will weed out the weak. Only the best 10% will survife. The other 90% will contribute to the 10%'s profit. Since there are always new players entering the market each year, this will continue to feed the top 10%.

If you lose money, stop and think. What have you done? If you found out the wrong moves, then avoid them. Insanity is doing something same over and over again expecting different result. God gave us the greatest organ: the brain. Use it. Don't simply shoot.

Ah...the market.....sideways now. Zzzzzz.......

KLCI is Kaputt

My reading is that KLCI is going lower (okay - everyone also knows that). Any possible rebound (if any) is a good time to sell. What good news to support and push up the index? 1Q result are so-so. Dow is going down. The uptrend which started in December is over (6 months of rally) - I base this reading from the Weekly RSI trendline. I guess next support is at 930, 910, 880. The punters are all preparing for the World Cup. Bursa Malaysia will be lifeless. Many people will have "panda" eyes.

The most important point now is to protect capital. Will take any advantage of rally to sell. Most probably the rebound won't go pass 960. Last week sell down was very fast. What can I do to avoid this? I can't read the future. What tools can I use?

Anyway, generally the market is down, but there may be a few that goes against the market. This will require a hit-and-run strategy. No pyramiding strategy as the momentum will be fast. One such counter is Bahvest. Looks like moving up. This will be confirmed if 0.30 is taken out. I think Bahvest is in the aquaculture industry. Food counters are rallying due to the 9th Malaysian plan. Could this be the next?

Jotech result were dissappointing. The earning were less than last quarter. However, Sapcres may have more room to go.

Winning becomes losing

The greatest mistake I have done this week is to allow my winning trades to become losing trades. To add salt into my wound, I bottom fished. Oh boy, it will be a tough one to handle. One big profit are eaten away by many small loses.

Time to stop trading and analyse my mistakes.

Buying instead of dumping

Everyone is dumping but I have decided to buy a little bit based on long term charts and also the emerging of buying strength late in the afternoon session. When the panic dissipates, the market should continue it's uptrend.

Stll looking for new bulls. Who may it be?

Stops hit

A few of my stops have been hit. Cutting off now as I don't want to violate my own rules.

CI still holding well with last minute support. Maybe it will rechallenge 970 once more.....

Old bulls are gone: Carotech, Oilcorp. Will new one emerge? Or must we wait until the World Cup is over? If that is the case, then we must wait until summer is over as usually this is a down period (May to October).

As I said before, the crowd is always wrong. When there is an extremely high volume with new high price, it is time to get out. I implemented this new strategy with Oilcorp and manage to get out before it crashes.

Iris and CI

Too bad I'm out of Iris long time ago. If you buy at 10 cents, you would have made 1300%! What a staggering amount. And so Bursa decided to designated this counter: money first before buying.

What will be the effect on CI? CI still failed to break the upper resistance level (679). Most probably pullback since the taiko needs money for World Cup football.

Sentiment could be bad on Monday. On the brighter side, look for counters that stand out among the losers. It could be another new oppurtunity.

BTW, tomorrow is Wesak Day. Don't forget to donate some of your earnings for the unfortunate. Happy Wesak Day everyone.

970 Barrier

970 is an important point. Break it and it is confirmed that we have a new bull which may go to 1000, if not, then we shall go back to the lower end.

Isolation

It's almost 1 month already since I have visited any discussion forums. I feel so calm now. No noise to emotionally charge my opinion. All I do not is by technical analysis. I have a list of my favorite stocks, some are moving, some are staying put. I'm just waiting for the right signals. No more jumping in and out. Just pyramiding my holding.

I still download the daily reports from brokerage firms. But I just give a quick glance and then saved it in my computer.

Have you read the book by Nicolas Darvas's book "How I Made $2 Million in the Stock Market"? Good read. I'm applying his isolation strategy.

Technology Sector

Technology counters continue to move up. The Tech Index is making new high.

My favourite is Jotech. But it has risen too fast. Financial result coming out this month. Can it be like LKT?

Notion also moved up too fast. Both Jotech and Notion gap up. How do you intepret a gap up? Will it close the gap? Cannot find my saved article about gap up play.

Mems consolidation over? Broken the downtrend channel finally?

Oilcorp is under base building again. Long term trend is still up.

Counters that are not working to expectation is AMMB-WB and Hil-WA. Still waiting for the big move.

Speculative counters that are sucking away my attention due to my past mistakes: L&G, Hwgb, Ngiukee-wa, TA-wb and Sitatt. Still waiting to breakeven.

Will avoid in adding new counters as I find that I'm unable to monitor so many. I will try to reduce it to under 10 and try to pick the best. To manage my risk, my strategy is to pick companies with improving fundamentals and not those speculative one anymore. Still need more time to do spring cleaning.

Oh...World Cup is coming. Time for football. Will that mean a dull stock market?

Birds and worms

"The early bird catches the worm"

means if we want to achieve our goals, then we must have an early start.

My say:
"Early worm gets eaten by the bird"

means if you do something too early, you may get caught up with extra unnessarry problem.

Example 1: Your project is in deep shit. Your boss found out about it after working hours. Next day, you are the first person to arrive for work. Your boss let go steam at you without waiting for others to be present.

Example 2: The stock you are stalking may be at the end of a downtrend. You wanted to maximize your profit, so you buy in. But the stock moves up and down with equal strength from the bulls and the bears. You waited and waited for yours to make the big move while other stocks are leaping and jumping. After waiting a few months, it finally confirm your analysis and starts moving. You may have missed other profits for getting your capital tied up with a trendless stock.

Just a stupid musing.....

Volume Rules

I have many trading rules, one of it is the volume rule. This rule is based on what I read and what I have observed.

Increasing volume with price increase is a good thing. This means more people are buying.

After a stock has increased substantially, it is time for it to take a rest. Why? Because some people may want to lock in profit to pay bills, have a nice dinner or whatever. Observe the reaction. If the correction occur with decreasing volume, it indicates that less and less sellers are willing to let go and may be waiting for bigger profits.

After the selling has dried up, the buyers may start to push it up again. If this push comes with increasing volume, then good probability for the continuation of the uptrend.

Beware of extremely high volume. This may indicates the climax of the uptrend. This rule may be ignored if this happens when the price breaks new high. Just maybe.

Any up move with low volume should be treated with caution.

But all these rules can be manipulated by the syndicate. It is easy to buy and sell between different accounts. This will need years of experience to differentiate manipulations and to be able to get a slice of the cake before everything is lost.

Wow!

What a rally! I did not manage to buy anything. No access to a computer. Maybe it is for my own good. I remember last time when I buy and everyone was buying, I got it almost at the high price. There is this saying: The crowd is always wrong.

Patience!

In out in out, at the end didn't catch anything.

Out of Oilcorp, back in now. Out of Liondiv, cannot get in now.

In out in out, when the stock is bull, it will stay there for quite a long time.

The key is to be patience. One word, but hard to do it.

Is the oil counters moving again? Dialog, Scomi?

Penny shares go sky high. Only around 100 Mesdaq counters. Buy and you may strike lottery. The odds are much better than playing Toto or Magnum. Look at Ifcamsc, DVM, Novamsc....aiyoh...and Iris keeps advancing.

Got a new job. So less trading now. Maybe it is better, then I cannot in and out so often. Only time will tell.

Pulling the trigger

I'm having problems pulling the trigger. It's about my futures foray. My mind is wounded liao. No matter how good my analysis is, I dare not pull the trigger. I get nervous when I give the order to my broker. What can I do? Should I see a psychologist? If you read the Market Wizard series, you will know that some traders do seek the help of the psychologist with their trading performance.

Advice are always given on what it takes to win: method, risk management and mind.

I felt that the order should be reverse: mind, risk management and method.

The mind is the most important part to train. To train means getting experience. No experience, no use. Good traders I guess will act without hesitation when certain condition arises. You train your mind doing something repetitively until it becomes a habit.

I have no problem in pulling the trigger for stocks. But for futures....big hesitation.

Immediate downside

Looks like the KLCI is going down. What catalyst that will halt this? The report seasons just completed. The big cap are not earning enough for investor to push the stock higher.

Looking at the big 3, Telekom failed to overcome the downtrend channel. Maybank still in downtrend. Tenaga can be consider to be long term trendless with downside bias.

In addition to that, oil is slowly creeping up building its base around USD60.

I guess no much upside. It is going to be a down month.

Hard to pick a stock in this type of situation. Stocks can suddenly come alive but also die suddenly. Very short term strategy is required for this type of play which I'm not good at it.

Last quarter results shows that E&E sector is having good profits. Will the momentum keeps going on? The leader of this sector is LKT. Who will follow next? D&O? Gtronic?

If oil goes up, will the O&G counters follows? KNM is the darling of this sector. Who will be next? Sapcres owe too much money. Profit not coming yet. Still in downtrend.

How about Oilcorp? Err.....it got new business in deep sea fishing. Food business is good. Everyone needs to eat. Oilcorp role will be to built the ships. Anyhow, the price has been slowly creeping up. Is something big going to be announced? The chart is good and Oilcorp should be challenging 1.01 soon.

Other O&G counters that I'm watching:
Scomi: Correction may be over.
Dialog: In consolidation. Cannot break 0.50.
Muhibah: In early stages of an uptrend. This one may be a winner, a turnaround story. The price is a little bit erratic due to the low volume.

What else to play? Mesdaq? I missed out Carotec. GHLSys is consolidating. Novamsc....oh this stock.....lost big but seems to have found bottom. The monthly charts says up. So what's the story? Another turnaround story?

All banking counters are not technically attractive except RHBCap. The upper resistance is at 2.55. Let's see whether it will overcome this, if not back down again.

Anyhow, if the KLCI goes down, then every counter will go down. So better wait and be safe until a clearer picture emerge.

Getting Whacked!

Wah lau eh! I didn't expect to see those type of messages in my comment box. I should have expect that these things will happen. I hope that it will not turn into chaos like the OSK forum.

Did I get whacked? Nolah, I only have a very small exposure to the chicks. For counters that didn't perform, they have not performed since day 1 I bought them. I give them a little bit of time, and if still not moving, out they go. Got to do "spring cleaning" now and then.

Talking of getting whacked, I meet 2 person that are out of the stock market since the last mini bull of 2001. They really got whacked, lose shirt and house! I talked to them, and the reasons I gather is:
- no system, just hamtam
- no cut lost

They were earning money here and there during the bull. One day can earn thousands. But when the party was over, they didn't believe it and still keep playing. The end result? They were out for good.

So after the CNY rally, we should have earn something. The important this is not to get complacent. If you let out your guard for a minute, you will get whacked.

What's the play for March? Sarawak election? Oild and gas still on? How about plantations? CPO seems to be going up.

Aiyoh, not easy to make money trading stocks. You need to strategize, think, act, think, plan, act .....it is endless. No wonder playing stocks part time is dangerous. You got to go fulltime. You need to think like the professionals. To become an engineer, you need 4 years of basic course and countless experience. To become a doctor, you need 6 years of basic course and countless experience. So does in becoming a trader. The only difference is there is no course for you to attend. The tution fees are the losses that you paid to the market. It is trial and error until you get it right. And if you ran out of capital before getting it right, then you are forever out of this game!

Range bound trading?

My reading of the technical charts for KLCI is rangebound. No up, no down. If this is the case, then the play for speculative counters will keep going on.

I didn't do much activities during the past 1 month as I'm having limited access to the Internet. No time even to update this blog.

Still holding a few counters. Constantly looking for better technical indicator to decide whether to sell a counter or not.

Looks like it is easier to buy, but harder to sell.

Currently reading Stock Market Wizard.

End Of CNY Rally?

Oh boy, Nikkei drop like hell, now US also. Oil is going to challenge it's old time high. The market is still weak. Now maybe it will get weaker. I assume everyone has earned their angpow.

I have gotten out of Iris and Flonic already.

If the market gets any weaker, I have to get out.

Shares that I have:
Huatlai-WA: The is weak counter. Cannot run as other chickens.
OSK-WA: Still cannot break the downtrend line. Play over?
nscom: Technically ok but not superb. I'm going to get out of this counter.
Liondiv: Still holding. Looks good.
Oilcorp: Very erratic behaviour but still going up.
Ranhill: Any higher?

Maybe oil counters will rally if oil goes higher. I don't know. Lets see what Mr. Market has to say.

Bursa Malaysia's Blogging & Forums

There is an article in Bizweek about the use of Internet for trading. The one that interest me is the proliferation of discussion forums and blogs.

Why do I start this blog? Well, I have no idea at all. I guess it was the “in” thing to have a blog. I wanted to stay in touch with the Internet and everywhere you can find people blogging about war, life, sex etc. So I guess that I just joined in the bandwagon.

This is never a serious blog, it is just for fun to past my time and to share some of my thoughts. I seldom write regularly. Only when I feel like it, then only I post something. I try to avoid promoting any counters because if I talked about certain counters, then I will be deemed to be promoting it. This is against the law as the SC is concern, as I have no investment credentials. I don’t want to get into trouble with the authorities. So, anyone that reads this, do your own homework. As I said before: Trust no one! Not even me!

Now what about forums? Most topics are nonsense and do not have any element of discussion at all. One forum even has become a war zone with name calling and flaming among the forummers.

The lack of discussion in our forums may due to the way we are brought up. From primary to university, our institution only teaches us to accept the truth. We are not taught the art of thinking. So we seldom discuss and explore other possibilities. And if we have any ideas, we just keep quiet because we are not use to voicing up.

By the way, do not think that the Internet allows you to post anonymously. It may seem that no one knows you but if the authorities wanted to catch you, it can be easily done. How? Through IP and MAC address. Yes, we do leave digital trails when we use the Internet. One possible way to overcome this is to use an “anonymous proxy” but theoretically it is still possible to trace you with a little bit more effort and determination.

Law of Probability

The number one rule for any trader is "Cut your losses fast, let you profits run". I didn't really grasp this concept until recently. I was implementing this rule half-heartedly. But after reading Market Wizards: Interviews With Top Traders by Jack D. Schwager, I finally understand the logic behind this rule.

The idea of this rule is due to the law of probability. Let me try to explain here:

Let’s say the market is fair, you have a 50-50 chance of winning (ignoring brokerage). That means if you make 10 trades, you win 5 and lose 5. Let’s say you limit your losses to 10% of your invested capital and your average profit is 20% of your invested capital. If you use RM1,000.00 for every trade, then your losses will be RM500.00 and your winners will be RM1,000.00. That means you still earn RM500.00!

So do you see the idea behind this rule? Good traders know that it is okay to make a mistake. The important thing is to get out of the mistake as quick as possible. Novice traders always think that to earn from the market, you must always be right and cannot make any mistakes. But to be right always will cost you dearly!

So now I have solve my problem of cutting losses. If I don’t like the way the stock is moving, I will get out first and restrategize later. The important thing is to protect my capital.

Concerning the second part, I think I may have an answer to that. To the “anonymous” user that suggested that I should not be trading, well, I’m going to prove to you that I can make it to the big league!

Ride Ur Winners!

Arrrggggghhhhh! One simple rule and I cannot stick to it!

Arrrgggghhhhh! Instead of earning 30% profit, I'm only taking back 10%.

Must make this rule a part of myself. Cannot break it, sit tight, be patience.

P.S. I'm talking about Media-WA.

CNY Radar

I spent the whole weekend looking at charts. Looking at all the blue chips, their charts are not good at all. The prices are all high. With so-so earnings, how high can they go?

Anyhow, I think this CNY rally is more on the speculative counters.

Intersting counters are Tcubes, Impress, Vitrox, Nextnat, Oilcorp, BSLCorp.

Trying to breakout of downtrend channel are Dialog, Muhibah, LCTH, Cworks, Opensys, Gtronic, AirAsia.

Nothing good in banking, wood, auto, construction, property, steel and water counters.

Hmm....need to find out how to program Metastock to do auto scanning of my criterias. Bursa has too many counters and most of them are craps!

I am considering very seriously of investing overseas especially SGX and Nasdaq. Look at Google, from USD100 to USD450. Where can you get this in Malaysia? I guess too much protection makes our companies unable to compete globally. Without global market, how far can you grow in a small country like us?

CNY Rally?

I think that the CNY rally is in progress. Many counters have flashed the buy signal.

Currently I'm rebalancing my portfolio, cutting down stakes that are too high in certain counters and slow movers. I sold out Kurasia as it is too slow for my style.

New buy counters are Media-Wa, Mikro (not good), Nscom and Iris. Mikro turns out to be a bad choice.

I'm still holding Flonic (a normal correction or end of the road?)

Carotec seems to be interesting, is it in the progress of the next up wave (wave 3)? RHB consolidation seems to have ended.

I'm also monitoring GHLSys and Scicom. AMMB seems to have bottom out also.

Sapcres and Jaks are all just rebounding since the monthly chart is too bad. Waiting for the correction to make the next decision. However, Dialog looks set to breakout from the downtrend channel.

CPO seems to be making new high. The breakdown that I predicted didn't happened. Currently monitoring plantations counters.

Bye bye 2005

Time flies, this is my 4th year in share trading and this is the worst year I had. I guess you can say that I'm in my own mini-bear situation. Many stocks that I had has reduced in value like the great Malaysian sales. Playing in 2nd or 3rd liner and warrants is a dangerous game. Dreams are shattered. Wounds are so deep it will take some time to heal.

I have change a lot since I first buying share. I started out as an investor. Turn greedy and becomes a speculator, suffered tremendously and now slowly becoming a smart trader.

I was out of work for a few months, it was a blessing in disguise. It gave me time to think what have gone wrong. I found out that it was due to a combination of wrong techniques, false hope, couldn't sit tight, short sightedness and refusal to cut lost. I guess that I was lucky as I didn't go bankrupt. I considere myself to be lucky as I found a technique that suits my style before all my capital is depleted. So now I'm crawling back, slowly getting back the capital that has been lost.

How effective is my new found technique? Well, lets see
Closed out winners: RHB, Carotech, Huatlai-WA
Closed out losers: Timecom, OSKvi, THGroup-WA, Carotech, MBFCorp
(I didn't list out losers that are due to previous bad techniques)

The amount won is slightly more that the amount lost. Well, I consider this to be good as the KLCI index has been sliding during the time I used this new technique. I have learn how to cut lost and now it seems that I'm already numb to it already. Bad trades are just like a organ with cancer, you cut it off so that it won't effect other parts (which is your ability to trade)

I'm still holding:
D&O (slightly negative, not yet reach cut lost)
Kurasia (enough to pay commission)
MTDInfr-WA (threatening my cut lost level, but still believe in my analysis)
Flonic (above breakeven)

Well, it is still a long way to becoming a good trader. I have no sifu, so everything have to learn from books. Currently reading two great books:
Market Wizards: Interviews With Top Traders by Jack D. Schwager
Trading Rules: Strategies for Success by William F. Eng

Very interesting books both of them. One new thing that I have learned from the book by Eng is that every trade is consits of 3 parts: analysis, execution and management.
Well I give myself a B in analysis, C in execution and a D in management.

That's why I missed out in Farmbes, LHH and should have earn more in Huatlai-WA.

Okailah, Happy New Year to whoever that is reading this. May we have better harvest in 2006.

LHH, Huatlai-WA, Flonic

I took the oppurtunity to sell Huatlai-wa. My intepretation of the chart does not indicate that it will go higher that 0.285. In fact 0.255 is the maximum retracement level before continuing down to under 0.20. I may be wrong. I realised that the mother share volume is too low for me to make any conclusion as it can be easily manipulated.

The movement of Huatlai is almost random. This chicken just jump here and there. I'm tired of this type of movement. Cannot analyse it properly, so better stay out :p (until better volume)

In contrast of Huatlai, LHH zoom up again. This chicken can really run fast. If you have tried to catch an actual chicken, you'll know that chicken can run really fast. The best time to catch 'em is in the evening when they are going to bed. It's my fault for not monitoring closely this counter when it was still not running. Anyway, it gap up and overbought now. If there is a correction to close the gap, then I will try to catch it. Otherwise, just forget about it. The risk is too high as I cannot set a proper stop level.

Concerning Flonic, looks like there is strong support for this counter and with good chance it can reach 1.00 (the actual target is 1.03 based on Elliot Wave + Fibonacci)

Talking about Elliot and Fibonacci, I just (actually yesterday) noticed that if the waves are formed properly, then with high percentage it follows the Fibonacci computed target (=- a few cents). Amazing isn't it? I guess the big boys are using it.

Oh yes, I finally understand Elliot wave theory. Still not good in drawing extended wave, but only the basic waves. I guess that it will increase my chances in share trading.

Huatlai, LHH, Impress, Flonic

I'm changing my chicken target. Huatlai seems to have broke the uptrend support. So time to get out from my Huatlai-WA. But I just notice another chicken may be running: Leong Hup (LHH). LHH may be in the process of carving out Wave 3 with a possible target of RM1.75 (ok...I finally understand the elliot wave target :p). Is LHH moving up because of increase in chicken price or due to the private placement?

Impress got my attention also. Currently overbought based on daily charts. Waiting for the correction to enter.

Meanwhile Flonic closed lower today. RM0.90 could be the end of Wave 3 with correction to follow soon. Daily RSI is overbought. If it is possible to overcome RM0.90, then expect it to hit RM1.00.

Other counters that I am watching are OSK, Iris and N2N.

Merry Christmas to all that are reading this!

D&O and Flonic

These are electronic sector counter. Read reports that the world electronic industry is reviving.

From my intepretation of the chart for both counters, they are still in uptrend. D&O may be experiencing some consolidation now but long term prospect still good. Most probably good support at 0.50 region. The movement of this share is extremely slow. So lots of patience are needed.

For Flonic, it is in uptrend since day 1. The price keeps increasing even though the directors are reducing their stake. An entrapment?

Huat-beh-lai?

The "syndicate" is ruthless. The warrant price has been pushed down with great speed and I have no time to react to it. If I use the Elliot wave count, then the warrant high of 0.285 may be the end of the uptrend. It hit my stop lost and thus I have reduce some of my holding. I wished that Bursa Malaysia will implement an auto stop lost system so that speculators can have better reactions. Anyhow, I will sell the rest during the bear rally.

Huatlai seems to be resting at the uptrend channel drawn from 0.69. Since the daily MACD has moved into negative territory, I do not expect it to go higher in this week. However, if it can still close above 0.90 during this month, I will restrategize my plan for Huatlai-WA

The whole market behaving badly. Any rally should be treated as a bear-rally and it is a good oppurtunity to sell off losing shares.

Huatlai

[The chart will be posted when I can get proper access of the blog]

Seems like it has formed the reverse H&S formation and has broken out of the neckline. Closing above 1.00 will confirm the breakout. If close above 1.00, the price target will be 1.15/1.65. Daily RSI still not yet overbought but above 60. I expect more upside. Weekly RSI is still below 60. Thus, it is still too early to say that trend change has occurred but I’m betting on it to go higher. Immediate support is at 0.90.

Now, if the above happens, then my focus will be Huatlai-WA (RM1.00/ 27 Mar 2010). Weekly and daily chart says it is very overbought. If Huatlai can reach it’s price objective, then the warrant objective can be anywhere from 0.40 to 0.90. Immediate support is at 0.20.

Will this coming Chinese New Year, “huat” will “lai”?

I have some open position. My strategy is to add some more when Huatlai closes above 1.00.

Frequency of Trading

Well, sometimes I get a comment on why there are no updates for my blog.

The truth is with the system I'm using, there is hardly many counters for me to trade. That's why sometimes I don't have anything to blog about. I have found that by identifying which counter not to trade, I would have save myself the trouble of losing my money to the market and to my broker.

Trading less has it's benefits. It is less stressful. It gives you more time for yourself. That's what we want in life isn't it? We want to be free from the daily chores. We want to play golf, watch a movie or be with our family when everyone else is chasing and back stabbing in the crazy rat race. That is what I want in life.

So trade less and enjoy life!

Cut cut cut

I cut cut cut. Last week was bloody bad. What to do? Carotech, MBFCorp and Thgroup are out. They are not behaving as I expect them to do.

My analysis says CPO price going to drop. So plantation stocks will suffer.

New found target: Huatlai-WA. Another chicken run?

Added some Mtdinfr-wa. Capital announcement out. But price did not jump. Aiyah, how to sell?

Kurasia still behaving as it should.

OSKvi rallies after 10 days I sold them. Sial!

Kurasia, Timecom, Oskvi

Kurasia: Looks like it has broken out from the falling flag formation. Daily and weekly indicators are positive. Good chance of going up higher. Strong buying volume (10,000 & 5,000 lots transaction) last week – is this an illusion or real fund buying?

Timecom: I have sold out Timecom with a lost after the weekly MACD drops into negative territory. My interpretation of this event is that more downside is to be expected. So finally acted on my mistake.

Oskvi: I have sold out this counter with a lost after the weekly MACD also drops into negative territory. My speculation was correct concerning the push up before the share consolidation but my poor execution of running away after it was relisted spell my doom (I was hoping for better price!).

Trust No One!

Can you trust analyst report and financial news articles. Definately a big NO!

Read the story at http://whereiszemoola.blogspot.com/

I think that a law must be enacted to prevent the same company that manages unit trust/brokerage to issue analysis report on Bursa's company. This people have hidden agendas. For their unit trust funds to perform, they need to sell it higher than their cost. Well, if all unit trust are equal, who will buy from them? The foreigners are too smart. This left the retailers. I got caught with Ghlsys and Novamsc based on their so-called "professional" report.

Well, never again! Their always positive reports definately will make you feel positive, pushing your inner self to buy. And wham...the next thing you know, the stock is at the tail-end of an uptrend. And you hope and hope that you can break even....until it becomes another expensive toilet paper.

So, stop reading analyst reports especially those from brokerage firms with unit trust funds.

As I learn from the X-files: Trust No One.

Water Related Counters

My opinion on water related counters:

Salcon: Based building. Possibly end of downtrend. But no signals yet.
Puncak: Still in downtrend.
PBA: Still in downtrend.
Rubhd: Still in downtrend.
Jaks: Still in downtrend.
Hiaptek: Still in downtrend.
YLI: Still in downtrend.

So no trading opportunities on water related counters. Just keeping an eye on Salcon as it is the most promising one. Will the promise of China oppurtunities brings profit to this counter?

The Waiting Game

Waiting for my counters big move. So when will it happen? I missed out Farmbes, bad decision on that. Now I can only look as it rises as I dare not chase after it as both the daily and weekly RSI are overbought.

So I can only wait for my Carotech or Thgroup or Timecom to move.

Timecom seems to be hanging at the monthly support line. If the MACD deteriorate further, I will have to take a lost.

Still waiting...

More and more bulls

The number of bullish counters that I am monitoring are increasing. They are:
Jobs, Carotech, Gpacket, Farmbes, Thgroup, Timecom, Spoly, Kbes, Kurasia, LKT, Iris

They are in various stages of the bull.

I missed out on Farmbes. But I am in Carotech, Thgroup-WA, Timecom.

If Nov 18 is the day the CI truely moves away from 890 level, then from my chart reading, we may see the index challenging 860 once more. And if it is able to break away from that level, then we will see a super-bull. If it breaks 890, then we shall see 860 once more.

The important thing is to be on the right side of the trend.

Number Theory

Chinese believe that certain number signify certain meaning. 4 signify death, 8 signify prosperity.

The CI continues to drop until Nov 14 which was at critical level support of 890. Well the date can also be written as 1114. In Cantonese it means “every time die”. Luckily it didn’t drop more than that.

On Nov 18, it rebounded to above 900. If you write it as 1118, then it means “every time prosperous”.

Are you superstitious on number? Well Bursa Malaysia’s counter code is 1818, and it was listed on March 18, 2005. Hmmm…..

Anyhow, is today the beginning of year-end rally?

Banking Sector

The banking counters do not look good. These are my interpretations of the charts:
Affin: Broke monthly support, in the beginning of downtrend. If 1.48 failed to hold, then going into the abyss.
AMMB: In downtrend mode since March 2004. No sign of bottoming yet.
Commerz: Still in uptrend mode, but consolidating now. Possible support at 5.00
EONCap: No opinion
HLBank: Beginning of downtrend. Monthly support broken.
Maybank: In consolidation, still within uptrend support range but may be the beginning of downtrend. Monthly H&S formation.
Mplant: In consolidation, still within uptrend support range but may be the beginning of downtrend. Monthly H&S formation.
PBBank: Within uptrend support. In consolidation.
RHBCap: In uptrend but not much strength.
Sbank: In long term uptrend but currently indication consolidation time.

I’m staying out of banking counters as the charts are all not favourable and do not indicate a rally in the near future.

Reminiscences of a Stock Operator

I'm rereading this book for the 3rd time. I didn't give much thought on Jessy Livermore's thoughts in the previous reads until I found a website discussing it at http://www.zealllc.com/2003/jesse01.htm. There are 8 articles in it (http://www.zealllc.com/othertopics.htm).

This is a very good book which I think all traders should read and analyse it.

Now, I think is a good time to make up my own notes.

Chapter V, Page 68:
"...big money was not in the individual fluctuations but in the main movements - that is, not reading the tape but in sizing up the entire market and its trend."

This is where Jesse Livermore was trying to solve his problem of earning peanuts when he should be earning the big money as his bet was obsolutely correct. Seems like all traders face this same problem.

"...The market does not beat them. They beat themselves, because thought they have brains they cannot sit tight."

You know it is uptrend, your analysis is correct, but you jump in and out trying to squeeze every cents out of it. Your plan is to buy on dips and sell on rallies. But sometimes, that dip never comes and you missed out that really big rally!

"...Disregarding the big swing and trying to jump in and out was fatal to me. Nobody can catch all the fluctuations. In a bull market you game is to buy and hold until you believe that the bull market is near its end."

So be patience and sit through the bull! You are not psychic. Stop looking at the computer screen every minute. Trade less. You do not have to pay your remisier his salary. You should only buy on pullback to increase your position. Why? It's not easy to pick a winner, so when you have a winner, add your position until the end of the road. And when you decide that the end of the road has come, then sell off all. Furthermore...

"...One of the most helpful things that anybody can learn is to give up trying to catch the last eighth - or the first. These two are the most expensive eighths in the world. They have cost stock traders, in aggregate, enough millions of dollars to build a concrete highway across the continent"

You will never be able buy at the lowest or sell at the highest. If it is the lowest or the highest, then it is pure luck. You best bet is to ride on the trend when it has been established and to sell when the trend is showing signs of reversing. There is not point of trying to catch the best price. What is 1 or 2 cents when the big moves are coming? So buy and sell without hesitation. You must have the confidence of acting on your analysis.

Thou Shall Not Hope!

In stock trading, either you are right or you are wrong. There is not such thing like 'hope'.

I knew that I was wrong in buying Sunrise based on technical analysis. This stock is still in downtrend. But I 'hope' that it will go higher. That is why I didn't cut my lost when it bounce up to 1.50. I was 'hoping' of breaking even. It didn't happen. I continue it's journey down. Eventually I have to cut it at 1.39. I could have reduce my lost but I 'hoped'.

When the chart says that we are already dead wrong, we still refused to accept it. Hoping that it will turn around favoring our position. This is not good for a trader. Either you are right about the trend or dead wrong. There is nothing in between.

When I enter a trade and start hoping that it will turn into a profit, then I know that I'm in a bad trade. When I starting to 'hope', that means that my analysis is wrong and I should cut lost fast.

Easier said than done. The ego in us will prevent us from admitting our mistakes. This may cost us our precious capital. But mistakes are common. If you read Daryl Guppy's book, then you will know that the A+ traders are only right in 70% of the trades done.

So stop hoping. If you are wrong, you are wrong, get out, learn your mistake, find another trade and make money!

THGroup

Looks like consolidation is over and continuing the uptrend. Buy signal triggered.

Carotech Resuming Uptrend

Completed 50% retracement at 0.58. Buy signal triggered. Looks like it is resuming the uptrend. Possible target of 0.94/1.29

Oil & Gas Counters

I missed out the O&G rally two years ago. I was just starting to trade then. Never have the guts of chasing shares and was a believer of buying when the price was falling.

The world oil price is fluctuating around USD60. So what's up with our O&G counters?

KNM: Weekly chart shows that it is consolidating. Possible support at 3.00.
Perisai: Sideways.
Ramunia: This one I intepret it as end of bull-run and possibly into consolidation with downside bias. Maybe support at 1.00. It was unable to crack 1.25, forming a double top.
Sapcres: Slowly going down. Avoid!
Scomi: Slowly going down. Avoid!
ScomiMR: Downtrend share. Avoid!
Shell: Uptrend share. In consolidation now. Support at 10.00?
Sumatec: Slowly going down. Avoid!
TgOffs: Uptrend share. Slowly going up. Where can enter ler?
Waseong: Sideways.
Oilcorp: This one oil or fish-oil counter? Anyhow, this one got potential. Currently in consolidation and trading near the possible support of 0.66.

Starting to make mistakes again!

Not a good week for me. The number of mistakes are increasing. Mis-intepreted Farmbes and Timecom. Poor choice on Mbfcorp. Cut lost on Sunrise.

Now looking at Carotec. Maybe the low of 0.58 is the end of correction period. 2 white candles in a roll is a good sign. Wait for T+4 signal to see whether selling pressure will reemerge.

Mesdaq Counters

This is the weekly chart for the Mesdaq market. High of 170 during July 2003 and starting to slid from April 2004. Going back to square one. The monthly MACD is improving. Maybe in 3 to 6 months we will see the bottom. Just maybe……All the Mesdaq counters that I am monitoring is still in downtrend, except for some: Carotech (consolidation), Gpacket (toppish?), Gdex (toppish?), Jobs (uptrend).

Property Counters

This is the weekly chart for the Property Index in Bursa Malaysia. The peak is March 2004. It is still in downtrend and making new low. Still cannot see the bottom. Will avoid all property counters from now onwards, as fear of interest rate hike will affect the sales of property, depressing earnings.

For past mistakes, I have to turn it into “long term” investment lor.

Sunrise

Finally sold out Sunrise with a lost :((

Even with 12 cents dividend coming this November, it is still sliding down slowly. Weekly MACD going into negative zone, this means more downward pressure. Not sure whether the share buyback will stop it or not.

Farmbes, Timecom, MBFCorp, RHB, Carotec, S

What a busy week for me. I was practically not in the market as I was away in Europe for a job interview. So no feelings for any of the blood bath in the market. Anyway, if the market didn’t come down, who will be the greater fool to buy it at a higher price from us?

Farmbes: Didn’t buy because it is not within my buying range. A double top at RM1.02 region? Since the weekly candle is no good, I think that a good entry will be at 0.85-0.90 (if it do continue upwards).

Timecom: Did not cut lost yet. Weekly chart shows that consolidation may be over.

MBFCorp: Still holding. Hard to play penny shares as the trading range is too narrow.

RHB: Back to square one. No signals yet.

Carotech: Daily reversal candle with volume. RM0.62 has been holding well for 3 days. Consolidation over? Weekly chart no more overbought.

Sunrise: Looks like rebound is over. Still in downtrend. Going to exit this counter soon.

Sunrise

Will it be pushed up before the dividend (12 cents) ex-date? Weekly has flashed a buy signal but daily not yet. I bought this one in August after reading some buy call from one of the brokerage (stupid of me for buying so fast) I'm hoping to get something out of this counter. Downtrend resistance at 1.60. So must watch carefully if the price can reach that region. Property counters are not doing well now. Will this counter go against the wind?

Entry: 1.535, 1.45

Farmbes

Resuming the uptrend. Daily/weekly/monthly all positive. This is a speculative counter. Old name is Sinmah. Chicken business. Very high risk. Bird flu can crash it anytime. Berani tak?

PECD, MBFCorp, MTDInfr-WA, RHB, Carotec

PECD: Aiyah, I missed this one. Queued at 0.50 and tak dapat. Try to safe 5 cents lor :p Weekly chart still say up. But daily chart says consolidation. I'm not sure what to do with this one. I give it a passlah.

MBFCorp: Got some at 0.065. Weekly and daily chart still okay. So do nothing. Not much bullet left lor.

MTDInfr-WA: Still in consolidation. Maybe action next week if MTDInfra starting to move again.

RHB: Still in consolidation. Wait for clearer signals to reenter (if got)

Carotec: Weekly candle no good. Consolidation time after an overbought condition. Maybe support at 0.60?

MTDInfr-WA

I think that someone is pushing this stock price down so that "they" can get it cheaper. Today's Bizweek from Star has an article about MTDInfr-WA exercise price that was published wrongly in many publications. I think this is it, the push down and promotion are all "interlinked". Looking for the push towards 0.40 now.

From the chart, it is still in consolidation mode. But the bigger trend is up.

Timecom

I bought it at 0.64. Bad move because the daily MACD is negative now. So expecting a consolidation next week. The weekly candle is not a definite sell yet. I set the cut lost level at 0.58. What to do when you have entered wrongly?

Entry: 0.64

MBFCorp

I have no idea what is this company's business. Anyhow, the daily and weekly chart also flash a buy signal. Should I jump into it? Play small small can kua.

PECD

This one starting to move again. It is a construction counter with lots of project in the Middle East. Construction counters are performing badly due to the lack of projects and thinning profit margin.

Daily and weekly chart flash a buy signal. Will it be able to break the downtrendline? Is this for real?

Timing Problem & Proposed Solution

I really have timing problem. With RHB, I'm too slow to take profit. With Carotec, I'm too fast with it. So what's the problem with me? Am I destined to be poor as the big profits always elude me?

I think I know why. I'm too fast in adding new positions. To prevent from losing the additions that I made, I exited to protect it.

I scan back the historical charts and notice that an uptrend stock will go up for 2-6 months. Everyday looking at the screen, expecting actions is very bad for trading.

So now, I will limit myself to maximum 1 trade per counter per week. All trades will be based on the weekly chart. If there is a buy/sell signal, then the trades will be done on Monday morning. For buy trades, the stop will be set on the previous week lowest price (in case my bet goes wrong).

I will stick to this rule unless I it is found to be unsuitable. So lets see how good will this turn out to be. Wish me luck!

Exit Carotech

The daily and weekly indicators are very overbought, I decided to exit completely as oil is dropping towards the USD60. Will the biodiesel rally fizzle out if oil price crash? Today it rallied above 0.70. It's just not my luck to make this profit. Just earn a small profit for this counter.
Entry: 0.395, 0.585, 0.63 and 0.675
Exit: 0.645, 0.66

RHB, Carotech, Timecom, MTDInfr-WA

RHB: Finish exiting from RHB, maybe prolong consolidation now? I don't now. Only gain 10% profit. So miserable. Need to fine tune my profit taking strategy. Still looking for the right answer.
Entry: 0.595, 0.645, 0.715 and 0.905
Exit: 0.79, 0.775, 0.825

Carotech: Okie, trying out my new profit taking strategy with this counter. Weekly and daily RSI all overbought. Will it be pushed above 0.70? If I am right, maybe wave 5 has terminated at 0.69. That's why I took partial profit. I'm not so sure yet. May have to exit completely if it cannot overcome 0.70. But will not add in any more positions.
Entry: 0.395, 0.585, 0.63 and 0.675
Exit: 0.645

Timecom: Continuing the uptrend? Weekly RSI at 64, target 0.76? Play play a little bit. If up again, will add again.
Entry: 0.64

MTDInfr-WA: Still trading at a discount! Why? I think I know why: The Edge got it's exercise price wrong. They put 1.00, but in fact it is 0.80 after capital repayment at the end of 2003. Is it safe buying now? Hmmm....hard to say, MTDInfr looks like in consolidation mode now. Support maybe at 1.15, unless MTD keeps buying MTDInfr.
Entry: 0.285 (twice), 0.32 and 0.345 (twice)

The lowest or the best chance?

I once told a friend that once a stock starts moving up, then we should hop into it to ride the momentum. My friend says it is too dangerous, better buy when it is low. I understand his statement, he wants to earn the highest percentage. The problem is how do you know that the current price is the lowest? Can you be sure that it will not continue rolling downhill?

There is only 1 way to make money in Malaysian stocks, that is when the stocks going up. Then only you can sell at a higher price. You can't short a stock as it is illegal. That means you need to identify a stock that is going up in the early stages.

How to identify a stock that will continue to go up? You may be scare that it is only a rebound and will then continue down. Yes, fear if you do not understand the characteristics behind the movement of every stocks. That's why we need to learn technical analysis. Why does technical analysis works? Because the professionals are using it. The action of these people that moves the stock. These are the people that buy in large quantity.

So, I think that we should stop fishing for low price stocks. Instead, we should jump into a stock when it shows the odds of rallying further. Buy high, sell higher. Then only we can make money.

Exiting RHB

RHB has just pierce through my stop of 0.80. Should have not add in extra position at 0.905. I need to fine tune my exit strategy. Big profit becomes small profit. Oh well, at least I still have my original capital. Will try to sell all tomorrow.

Entry: 0.595, 0.645, 0.715 and 0.905
Exit: 0.79, 0.775

Carotech Wave 5?

Wave 3 was propelled by bio-diesel. Then the next one by news of 3-for-5 bonus. Is this the last of wave 5? Will it be pushed to above 1.00? I just don't know.

My entry: 0.395, 0.585, 0.63

MTDInfr-WA

Weekly RSI has hit a new high at 64. I’m expecting more upside. No plans yet to add in more position.

My entry: 0.285, 0.32 and 0.345

Mems

Not yet time to move up. This is another so-called good Mesdaq counter. The floor looks like infested with anai-anai.

My entry: None

GHLSys

I suffer a lot with this counter, bought at 0.60(pre-BI)/0.38/0.33/0.21 and it is still dropping. Lesson learned: study technical analysis to time your buying even though it is fundamentally good. I sold off my right issues, as I see no point of adding in more position until the stock shows signs of reversing. Never catch a falling knife and beware of the unseen anai-anai. And also remember to cut lost when the odds are against you!

My entry: 0.60(pre-BI)/0.38/0.33/0.21

Mistakes

Sold a few counters with loss: Plus-CA, Quest, Sumatec as they do not exhibit the bull patterns that I'm looking for. However, Quest later shows some signs of developing into a winner (or maybe a rebound). It's still too soon to tell. I have used the money to buy other counters.

Another mistake is that I add too soon my position on RHB. Should have waited longer.

I'm still following Carotec, RHB, Oskvi and Mtdinfr-WA. Will sell/buy when there is signal.

Fear and Greed

RHB is in consolidating mode. I was tempted to lock it part of my profit in the morning. But greed stop me from doing it. As the price keeps drooping, I then fear the lost of my profit. Yes, in stock market, everyone is rule by greed and fear. Only the best are void of emotion. Anyhow, I did nothing today. Too busy with work and no time to monitor the market.

Only after the close of the market I can analyse logically my situation. Here are my analysis:
RHB: Moved up to much too fast, profit taking activity for 2 days already. Support should kick in at around 0.82 region.
MTDInfr-WA: Also too fast too much. The moving average needs to do some catch up before more up trust. I will only add into my position if it can move above 0.40. My only concern is that MTDInfr may be taking a rest after the short sprint.
Carotech: Movement linked to Hovid. This one U-turn very fast. I was not able to buy near the closing as I was busy with work. Will try to catch some tomorrow.

Carotech

Wave 1 has terminated at 0.52. I am waiting for the end of correction to buy.

My entry: 0.395

MTDInfra

From the weekly chart, MTDInfra should be reaching its wave 3 target of 1.23 soon. Very strong buying just before Friday’s close. MTD must be buying aggressively just before the capital repayment of 20 cents (the entitlement date has not been announce yet). The weird thing is that MTDInfra-wa is not moving as it is supposed to be. The warrant exercise price is 0.80 while the maturity date is 27 Jun 2007. At Friday’s closing price, 0.32 + 0.80 = 1.12 which is 8 cents lower than the MTDInfra price. The first target for MTDInfra-wa is 0.40 if the resistance of 0.335 is broken. I will buy more when this level is broken.

My entry: 0.285, 0.32

RHB

I’m still holding my RHB. I thought there would be a correction right after last Thursday long shadow hammer, but the buying strength was great. The minimum target of 0.85 has been breached. If it still keeps going up, then my Fibonacci target will be 1.22 for wave 3. The daily and weekly charts all show an overbought condition. So, I will only try to get more after the correction (if any).

My entry: 0.595, 0.645 and 0.715

Weekly Analysis

Weekly Chart: Weekly MACD turns negative! While weekly EMA still negative. Now the negative MACD worries me. I have gone through the chart and history shows that when it turns negative, more downward move is going to happen.

Daily Chart: Downtrend channel broken in daily chart. Daily EMA lines show that they probably won't converge and diverge! If they don't do this, then my analysis shows that any up move will not be strong. Daily RSI is slightly below 60. However daily MACD is positive.

Conclusion: Patriotic fund managers are pushing up the index for Hari Malaysia. Any up move will not be strong as the weekly MACD is contradicting with the daily MACD. Maybe a correction first for the next strong move.

Now, my Elliot Wave knowledge is not that good. But IF I am correct, we may see the end of wave 2 and more agressive wave 3 selling. Maybe I'm wrong kua.

Disclaimer: This is a non-professional opinion only, please do your own analysis before making any decision.

Riding the wave!

I'm on RHB wave, entered at 0.595, 0.645 and 0.715 in 3 consecutive days. Just play small small only. My analysis says RHB is in wave 3.

I'm also in OSKVI at 0.135. Wave 3 not yet move.

Looking for possible entry at MTDInfra. This one puzzles me, the mother is moving but not the son.

Hovid is moving, so is Carotec. I was in Carotec long time ago before I got "enlightenment". Looks like it is in wave 1 only. Wait for correction for the super-duper wave 3.

Landmarks moved today. I was not it.

KNM, Sugar and Pantai rallied quite a lot already. I feel uncomfortable to chase them.

UBS, Affin and Puncak should be moving soon kua.

Eureka (Part 2)

Okie, based on the new patterns that I found, I have categorize the following:

Bulls in progress: KNM, Sugar, Pantai
Young Bulls: RHB, Landmarks, UBS
Maybe Bulls in creation: Puncak, OSKVI, Affin

If you want to buy, good luck to you. Just remember that nothing is 100% certain.

Eureka!

Last weekend, I was in deep though. My question is simple: Why do some shares fly sky high even without any fundamental while others just sitting around?

I was refering to Pantai, Sugar, Ramunia....just to name a few. All my technical analysis (MACD, candlestick, RSI, EMA) didn't indicate or predict that a counter that moves up will generate either 100% return or falls back to square one.

So I kept searching for the elusive answer. Well, I think I have found it. The answer lies in the simple Exponential Moving Average of value 3, 7, 20 and 30. Why these value? Well the value 3 & 7 was suggested by my futures broker. Using only these two generate to many false signals (no wonder I lost heavily in futures) A forummer suggested the importance of the value 30 (can't remember his name) and I added the final value 20 to filtered out the weak signals. So take out your technical analysis tool. Plot the chart for these, put it in a different colour and see for yourself.

Did you notice anything common about Ramunia, Sugar, Pantai...and now RHB? Well, if the daily 3/7/20/30 EMA crosses to positive (that means moving up), then check the weekly chart which should shows the weekly 3/7 EMA also crosses positive. Well, if you find this pattern, then look at the daily and weekly MACD. Both should be positive or going positive. And with these patterns, with high probability, it will go up. But the trick is to look how many attempts it is doing this. Usually, the first try will fail. It will fall back down a little bit. But if it just stop short of the previous low and continue to move up, then you may have a good winner. It will rally up at least 50%. The trend may last for 6 months earning you 100% or more.

So what you waiting? Get those charts. I have discovered a few: RHB, UBS, Landmarks and Picorp. If you found more, please do message me. I am trying to figure out how to use the Metastock search function to find these patterns.

Good luck!

Weekly Analysis

I will try to give my opinion based on my knowledge of technical analysis. I'm not sure how the image will turn out when uploaded. I will base my reading on the weekly chart as it will give an indication of the long term trend.

The MACD shows that this is an uptrend, but as it is reducing, that means we are in consolidation mode. If it keeps reducing, then we are in the BEAR mode. Last week, a white candle was made on the chart giving a bullish engulfing candle. This usually indicates the change of trend (going up?) The RSI curve up at 50. Another good sign. With DJI rallying last week, I think that it will go up some more. Target about 960???

Up up .....and away?

It finally came, the rebound. Oil drop with the release of 80 million barrels from the reserves. The index moved so much, many counters also move up, but mine are all staying put. So why? Is this just plain bad luck or bad choice of counters?

Anyway.....I have decided to not to monitor the counters too much....it puts in too much emotion into my decision. I will base my decision on daily charts. That will be enough.

From the weekly chart, KLCI is still in bull and possibly in wave 5 (based on Elliot) Target should be higher than 960.

So, got more bullets? My last one was spent on Sunrise (read the recommendation by investsmart). Now I will have to get more bullets for mtdinfra-wa. Looks like mtdinfra going to break new high. mtdinfra-wa exercise price is only 0.80, when mtdinfra implements the capital repayment, it will be adjusted to 0.60. So, mtdinfra is in the money and mtdinfra-wa is trading almost without premium.

Desperate for a Rebound!

The index ends under 910 for this week. Yes, I know I said that support is 910, but I'm not God. I can't determine the exact support. Nobody cans. But the probability is higher here. Expects gives a range of 900-910. Everyone one is just guessing.

So where is the rebound? Or change of trend? Stochastic oversold. RSI oversold. MACD show some sign of bullish divergence. So there is hope. Yes, when everyone feel desperate, that's the point where the market will turn around.

So are you feeling hopeless? Then buy.......

At Critical Support 910

The rebound was brief and weak. Everytime the bulls tried to push up, the bears pushed it down. So now we are back at the 910 area. RSI shows that the index is already oversold. No sign of reversal yet, but the chances are getting better for a rebound. No guarantee though.

My performance is not good for last week. My bet on Quest didn't work as well as I like it to. It did manage to shoot up, but quickly fall down back. Now I'm back to square one. Most probably I'll cut my lost.

Other counters which I plan to cut are Plus-CA (the mother is back to bearish) and Sumatec.

If you want to read other's analysis, then I suggest that you read the blacksheeptrading site (http://www.geocities.com/blacksheeptrading/)

Rebounding....

Looks like the BMCI (KLCI) index is rebounding as shown by the 14-day RSI (where the RSI downtrend channel has been broken). If the uptrend continues, then the next target will be >960 (predicted using Elliot Wave - wave no. 5). Is this the pre-budget rally? The strategy is to sell into this rally as prolong downtrend is expected until Nov-Dec period.

If it is only a small bounce, then 930 will be a resistance and may be the point of continuation of downtrend.

Let's see what will happen next week.

Dropping arrested, rebounding now?

Market seems to put on the breaks. Maybe rebound from here. Who knows? Technically has reach the 33% Fibonacci retracement level. IF breaks 935 region, then uptrend continues. If turn back at that region, than a downtrend channel has been formed.

Interesting counters:
Quest - Very high buy percentage. Last minute push. Maybe tomorrow more action? Will try to add on position when 0.35 is broken.
Tecfast - I have let go this one last week due to inaction, but looks like it is inching up again. Hmm....got potential.
Plus-CA - Hard to read this one. Maybe rebound more, maybe continue down. Plus needs to close above 3.26 for positive action.
FTEC - Hmmm...still supported by the uptrend channel.
Mptech - Bullish reversal candle. Rebound or change of trend?

Market still dropping

Alamak, where is the rebound? Looks like the market is going to drop to 900-910 region. Technically, it is still consolidating because no downtrend channel has been made yet.

My strategy is to bet that the uptrend will continue. If my bet is wrong, then I should cut many losses.

Interesting counters:
Quest - make a bullish reversal with volume but sentiment not good. Should rebound from here kua.
Ftec - supported by the uptrend channel? If so, then next target maybe 0.40 liao.

Temptations (2)

So how do you prevent yourself from being tempted to buy?

Well, the standard way is to plan your trading before the open of the market! Yes, you should write down at what price to buy, targeted price and stopped price before you enter any trade. This will prevent you from following your "feeling". Emotions are bad in trading. When price goes up, you feel "high". When price goes down, you feel "down". We must cut away these type of feelings from our trading. More like cold blooded trading. No emotions, no feelings. Just follow the rules that you have set. Nothing more, nothing else.

So what are the rules? It depends on your personality. If you are old, most probably you will like the fundamental counters that moves up inch by inch. If you are young, most likely you will play those speculative counters. If you are a daredevil, then you will use the buy high, sell higher strategy. We are humans, each of us are different. So find out what type of trader are you. Then apply the right technique that suits you.

Just remember, write down everything you do. Keep a journal of it. At least we can analyse our successes and failures later on. It's okay to make a mistake once. But it is lunatic to keep repeating it.

For me, I'm still searching the right technique that suits me.

FTEC oh FTEC!

This is the 2nd time this sort of things happened to me in 2 months. I sold FTEC at 0.305, "thinking" that it will not break the 0.31 resistance. I was very wrong, it break this barrier and zoom pass to 0.35. Imagine the lost profit!?

The first one was with Ramunia when I sold it at 0.87 (which eventually goes to above 1.00 in another 2 days time).

So why? Why do I always sell my winners and ride my losers? Why do I always sell early? What have I done wrong? Have I violated my own rules? More things to wonder....or is it a luck factor?

If anyone is reading this, please tell me the best exit strategy. I still have a lot to learn.

Temptations (Part 1)

Visited Amsterdam during the weekend. Walk around the Red Light District (RLD). It's full of sex sex sex. The prostitute display their goods behind a glass window for you to see wearing only lingerie. You can find young girls to old aunties. They are there to satisfy whatever fantasy that you have. What a temptation.

Playing stocks is also full of temptations. Price goes up, you feel regret because you didn't buy during the low. So you are very tempted to get in. Without thinking much, you got in and "Wham"! The price reverses. Now you feel uneasy. If it goes down some more, you will panic and sold it off. You will ask yourself why you have been trapped? Something to ponder.......

This is not right!

One day KLCI goes up double digit, then the next day it surrendered most of the gain. Didn't expect that the profit taking is so strong. The candle chart points to more downward pressure. If breaks 940, then it was a false break and we shall be slaughtered.

Nothing is certain in share market. Only probabilities. It is so easy to learn technical analysis. You learn about uptrend, downtrend, resistance, support, ascending formations, MACD, RSI, Stochastic, Elliot wave etc. But when comes the time to implement, it is not straight forward. If your analysis points to one direction and it goes the other way, you will be wondering what has gone wrong with your analysis. From my experience, technical charts don't lie. It is we who lie to ourselves. We always try to interpret the chart to be favourable to our situation. Only experience will minimise this impact.

At the time of writing this, US market shows a large drop. Don't know what will happen when market opens tomorrow, will 940 be breached? Anyhow, I won't be able to see the live action myself as I will be going to Holland for a holiday. Yes, the place and not the other "holland" (in Cantonese).

Turkey Can Fly!

Big funds buy blue chips. Small funds buy peanuts. Why do retailers always goes for penny shares? I think it is due to the good feeling of holding more of less value than less of more value. Or maybe retailers live in fantasy island? Buy 10 cents share, up 1 cent, earn 10% liao! Better than fixed deposit!!! But do the retailers have the power to push the price up? After buying penny shares, we always wait for the "syndicate" to push it up. Sometimes we may be lucky, but most of the time we will go to "Holland".

Today, 2nd liners all fly high. Push push push! After 942 has been broken convincingly, everyone rush in to buy. The fear of buying high and selling low still persist. The trick is not to buy when it is overbought. From my observation, when a share is in the overbought region, the probability of it going up more is not that high. Most probably it will take a rest first to flush out those with no holding power. So do keep the temptation away from yourself. There are still many more counters with better probability for us to hop on.

I have so many counters to monitor. Very kancheong now. But must still try to keep cool. Which counter to average down (so that can get out)? Which counter to take profit? Which counter to hop on? Aiyah, my mind cannot work that fast lah. Just a greenhorn in this share thing.

Today's analysis:
Plus - First time it manage to close at 3.40. RSI shows more room to go up. Maybe target 3.50. So I hopped into Plus-CA. The ex-price is 2.79, which means it should go to 0.70. If I use the triangle breakout computation, then the target will be at 0.65.

FTEC - Just manage to close below the resistance line of 0.31. Hmmm...if break, next target will be 0.38.

Sumatec - Will be challenging 0.745. If break, then target 0.86.

Talam - Debt problem solved? If break 0.66, then next target is 0.86. Is Talam-wa worth the risk?

L&G - Broken the RSI downtrend line. Should be able to break the 0.20-0.21 region.

Breaking new high

Seems that my analysis is wrong. Bursa is breaking new high. Both the daily and weekly charts shows that KLCI is overbought. Only blue chips are matching higher. 2nd and 3rd liners all still have no petrol to move. It is very dangerous to chase the price when it is overbought. Your probability of winning is getting less and less (risk increases). If we become emotional, then we may be the fools that buy at the highs (buy high sell low)

We must be patience. Remember, what goes up must comes down. Wait for the price to pullback and then only take a ride for the next trip up.