2011 CLSA Feng Shui Index

Yes, it is the time of the year for the CLSA Feng Shui Index. Read the complete report here.

As you can see, the above chart shows a bumpy year ahead. The index moves higher overall but with more than 50% retracement.

CLSA also predicts what sector to be in:
Great Year: Financials, Gaming, Gold, Resources, Transport
Good Year: Oil & Gas, Technology, Telecoms/Internet, Utilities
Bumpy Year: Property

Remember, the prediction is for Hong Kong. Nothing said about Malaysia.

So, go and and download the full report from them.

New CIMB CW

4 new CW from CIMB will be listed on 13 Jan 2011:

New Warrants	Expiration	Type	Ex Price	Ratio
KNM-CF	17/01/2012	Call	MYR 2.9000	4 : 1
RHBCAP-CE	17/01/2012	Call	MYR 8.5000	8 : 1
MPHB-CD	17/01/2012	Call	MYR 2.2000	3 : 1
GENM-CP	17/01/2012	Call	MYR 3.3500	4 : 1

Cooler Temperature and Investment

There was a news item in The Star today about cooler temperature. The report didn't give any specific reason for the out of the ordinary event. Well, if you subscribe to John Mauldin newsletter (free of charge), then you will know that the erratic weather pattern across the world (i.e. freezing winter in Europe and massive flood in Australia) is due to the volcanic activity in the Kamchatka Peninsula. Volcanic ash always have a cooling effect as they block out the sun ray. What does this means? The immediate effect will be lower crop yield (less sunshine, less growth). The other will be the weather.

As speculators, we should be anticipating higher prices for agriculture products. So, buy stock that is related to this sector.

I cannot find the original post from John Mauldin, but this blog has the article.

KLCI Weekly Review.

KLCI Weekly Chart

Finally broken 1520 region. The index is slightly overbought now. So, expecting a pullback. Extra high volume is a danger sign that the crowd is finally here. As we know, the crowd will always buy at the top. However, the uptrend can stay up than what we expect it to be. The important thing is not to buy top-20 volume counters, buy counters with good setup but with low volume.

Sector summary:

Malaysia	Monthly	Weekly	Daily
FBM KLCI	Up	Up	Up
Finance	Up	Up	Up
Construction	Up	Up	Up (+)
Plantation	Up	Up	Up
Property	Up	Up	Up

International Reserves of BNM

Date	MYR (billion)	USD (billion)
15-Dec-10	326.7	105.9
31-Dec-10	328.6	106.5

Source.

Bullish or Bullshit?

More and more people are in the bull camp. Analyst are competing among themselves to predict the year-end target. Be careful with their prediction. One cannot predict any point in the chart. It is as good as throwing darts. If you believe in their prediction, than you are sucker. They always give a reason to you to buy because they need to unload their investment to you. Remember, the same people who is giving sunny picture is also working in the same firm that also manages money for other people. Prices need to be pushed up to generate profit.

For me, I don't believe that all is well in this country or this world. There are still too much debt that needs to be repaid. Growth that is generated through debt is just an illusion. Look at KNM that fell down from the sky (now has recovered back).

2011 theme is inflation if the the Fed gives on pumping money. If they don't, then we will go into another recession. Keep an eye on the price of crude oil, if it is too high, then growth will be curtailed.

I have not been trading since the last trading day of 2010. Just sitting on my position. Some worked, some didn't. On average, oklar.

Now, I don't think that I need to highlight any stock. Everything is flying. Everyone is a genius now.

If you are curious about my holding, then I don't mind telling you: IJM, IJMLand, E&O, Gamuda, YTLPowr, IOICorp, MHB, UMW and Axiata.

8 New AM CW

8 new call warrants from AmBank will be listed on 5 Jan 2011:

New Warrants	Expiration	Type	Ex Price	Ratio
AIRASIA-CL	8/12/2011	Call	MYR 2.5000	4 : 1
DRBHCOM-CD	8/12/2011	Call	MYR 1.8800	3 : 1
POS-CA	8/12/2011	Call	MYR 3.3000	4 : 1
IJM-CF	8/12/2011	Call	MYR 6.3800	6 : 1
SPSETIA-CC	8/12/2011	Call	MYR 5.6000	8 : 1
CIMB-CK	8/12/2011	Call	MYR 8.6000	12 : 1
GENTING-CX	8/12/2011	Call	MYR 10.7800	15 : 1
PCHEM-CB	8/12/2011	Call	MYR 5.5000	10 : 1

Buy my Warrant Calculator so that you can determine the premium for a warrant easily. Only RM30 for first year!

KLCI End of Year Analysis

KLCI Monthly Chart

1500 is hard to crack. Monthly Stochastic has been in the overbought region throughout 2010! Monthly RSI also points to a overbought condition which usually means limited upside in the future. However, with money flooding into the system, the uptrend can be longer than anyone expected.

2011 theme should be inflation. To play the inflation theme, one must buy companies that are involved in producing the raw material such as mining and agriculture and avoid companies that deals with the end users. This is because it is easy for the producer to hike up prices to the manufacturers, but it is harder for the manufacturer to pass on the cost to the end consumers.

For the various Bursa Malaysia sectors, all had a good run in 2010, but now look toppish. They look like in distribution mode for the pass month and two. So, sell into strength because the market cannot always go up.

Sector summary:

Malaysia	Monthly	Weekly	Daily
FBM KLCI	Up	Up	Up
Finance	Up	Up	Up
Construction	Up	Up	Neutral (-)
Plantation	Up	Up	Up
Property	Up	Up	Up

Concerning IJM/IJMLand, someone really has inside information that cause the great plunge. SC should investigate. The suspension should have started before the trading days begins, not at 12pm. Anyhow, stock trading is always an unfair game, so just keep that in mind.

Interesting Chart: YTLPowr

YTLPowr Daily Chart

A buy signal given. This could be another chance to ride the uptrend.

Disclosure: Long

By the way, the IGB chart turns out to be boring, therefore, I have to let it go.

New SW

4 SW will be listed on 29 Dec 2010:

New Warrants	Expiration	Type	Ex Price	Ratio
CHMOBIL-CF	28/12/2011	Call	HKD 78.0000	20 : 1
WANT-C1	28/12/2011	Call	HKD 6.5000	3 : 1
AIA-C3	28/12/2011	Call	HKD 21.0000	10 : 1
GENS-CD	28/12/2011	Call	SGD 2.2500	6 : 1

New Foreign SW

4 new SW from CIMB will be listed on 21 Dec 2010:

New Warrants	Expiration	Type	Ex Price	Ratio
WYNN-C3	22/12/2011	Call	HKD 16.8800	10 : 1
HSBC-C8	22/12/2011	Call	HKD 75.0000	40 : 1
HSI-CE	29/06/2012	Call	24,000.00	4000 : 1
HSI-H3	29/06/2012	Put	24,000.00	4000 : 1

Bursa Malaysia Weekly Summary

KLCI Weekly Chart

Still cannot break.

Sector summary:

Malaysia	Monthly	Weekly	Daily
FBM KLCI	Up	Up	Neutral (-)
Finance	Up	Up	Up
Construction	Up	Up	Up
Plantation	Up	Up	Up
Property	Up	Up	Up

Interesting Chart: IGB

IGB Daily Chart

May have broken the triangle pattern. May also have cleared the resistance at 2.05. If it can stay above this level by the close of today, then the next resistance is 2.35-2.50.

Disclosure: Long

Bursa Malaysia Weekly Summary

KLCI Weekly Chart

Looks like the 1520 is a tough nut to crack. After 3 times, still no success. I'm seeing conflicting signal from the weekly chart. MACD & Stochastic points downwards, EMA points upwards while RSI also indicates upwards. Maybe this indicates a top. I see excessive exuberant in a few counters based on the premium on the warrants. Examples are SPSetia and Pchem. Anyway, no downtrend signal yet.

Sector summary:

Malaysia	Monthly	Weekly	Daily
FBM KLCI	Up	Up	Up (+)
Finance	Up	Up	Up (+)
Construction	Up	Up	Up
Plantation	Up	Up	Up
Property	Up	Up	Up (+)

New OSK CW

6 new CW from OSK is listed today (9 Dec 2010):

New Warrants	Expiration	Type	Ex Price	Ratio
GENTING-CW	5/8/2011	Call	MYR 9.8000	12 : 1
BURSA-CR	5/8/2011	Call	MYR 7.5000	10 : 1
GAMUDA-CO	5/8/2011	Call	MYR 3.5500	4 : 1
AIA-C2	5/8/2011	Call	HKD 21.0000	12 : 1
ABC-C1	5/8/2011	Call	HKD 4.0000	2 : 1
APPLE-C4	5/8/2011	Call	USD 300.0000	1000 : 1

International Reserves of BNM

Date	MYR (billion)	USD (billion)
15-Nov-10	326.5	105.8
30-Nov-10	326.4	105.8

Source.

Bursa Malaysia Weekly Summary

KLCI Weekly Chart

Market still refuse to correct significantly. Europe and US central bank keeps pumping money. The extra money will end up being used for speculation. Maybe the general election is near. Need to keep the voters happy, if not, they will vote you out. So, I'm that happy the market is not dropping but also cautious for any sell off.

Summary:

Malaysia	Monthly	Weekly	Daily
FBM KLCI	Up	Up	Neutral
Finance	Up	Up	Neutral
Construction	Up	Up	Up
Plantation	Up	Up	Up (+)
Property	Up	Up	Neutral

New OSK CW

4 new call warrants from OSK will be listed on 3 Dec 2010:

New Warrants	Expiration	Type	Ex Price	Ratio
AIRASIA-CK	1/8/2011	Call	MYR 2.3000	3 : 1
PCHEM-CA	1/8/2011	Call	MYR 5.0000	5 : 1
IOICORP-CQ	1/8/2011	Call	MYR 5.6000	6 : 1
SANDS-C2	1/8/2011	Call	HKD 16.0000	8 : 1

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Interesting Chart: MHB

MHB DAily Chart

Could be a uptrend in the making.

Disclosure: No position

Bursa Malaysia Weekly Summary

KLCI Weekly Chart

Looks like KLCI is going to test the uptrend line (currently at 1430). Based on weekly chart, it is not a bear market yet. If you are holding some positions in call warrants, I think that it is a good idea to consider selling those where the underlying share is at the overbought region. I have closed my position in Kencana and KLK. Hopefully the correction is gradual so that other shares can still be pushed up.

Sector summary:

Malaysia	Monthly	Weekly	Daily
FBM KLCI	Up	Up	Neutral
Finance	Up	Up	Neutral
Construction	Up	Up	Up
Plantation	Up	Up	Neutral
Property	Up	Up	Neutral (-)