Bursa Malaysia Weekly Summary

Chart is still up, but can see some weakness. However, construction and property still looking strong with increasing volume.

Sector summary:

Malaysia	Monthly	Weekly	Daily
FBM KLCI	Up	Up	Up
Finance	Up	Up	Up
Construction	Up	Up	Up
Plantation	Up	Up	Up
Property	Up	Up	Up

Still holding my position. Hopefully, the rally can continue until the year of the rabbit.

International Reserves of BNM

Date	MYR (billion)	USD (billion)
30-Sep-10	310.8	100.7
15-Oct-10	322.7	104.6

Source. This is a huge jump considering that it is not due to quarterly readjustment. Anyhow, need another 2 or 3 data points to determine whether this is a trend or just a one time event.

3 New Structured Warrant

3 new structured warrant from CIMB will be listed on 22 Oct 2010:

New Warrants	Expiration	Type	Ex Price	Ratio	Call Price
MAXIS-JA	21/07/2011	Bull	MYR 4.7500	5 : 1	MYR 4.9500
MPHB-JA	21/07/2011	Bull	MYR 1.8000	3 : 1	MYR 1.9000
UMW-CD	21/10/2011	Call	MYR 6.5000	5 : 1

Bursa Malaysia Weekly Summary

KLCI Daily Chart

Bearish divergence detected in the daily chart. This is due to the financial sector which shows the same behavior. Property sector is very overbought but should be able to go up further after a correction (current reading at 950, next resistance at around 1100). Construction sector is also very overbought and should correct before challenging the next resistance (current reading at 270, next resistance at around 285). Plantation rallied a lot last week and now is also in the very overbought zone (current reading at 7400, next resistance at 8000).

Based on the monthly chart, only the financial sector is in the very overbought zone. Plantation, property and construction will have to do some catching up.

Summary:

Malaysia	Monthly	Weekly	Daily
FBM KLCI	Up	Up	Up
Finance	Up	Up	Up
Construction	Up	Up	Up
Plantation	Up	Up	Up
Property	Up	Up	Up

4 New Call Warrants

4 new call warrants from CIMB will be listed on 18 Oct 2010:

New Warrants	Expiration	Type	Ex Price	Ratio
DRBHCOM-CC	18/10/2011	Call	MYR 1.1500	2 : 1
KLK-CJ	18/10/2011	Call	MYR 17.0000	20 : 1
MMCCORP-CB	18/10/2011	Call	MYR 3.1500	4 : 1
MRCB-CE	18/10/2011	Call	MYR 2.1000	3 : 1

Poll: Peak Oil

Wow! So many people oil there believed in peak oil. That is a good sign. I hope that those that believe in peak oil are well prepared for the future.

More Warrants

4 more warrants, this time from CIMB, will be listed on 13 Oct 2010:

New Warrants	Expiration	Type	Ex Price	Ratio	Call Price
GAMUDA-CN	11/10/2011	Call	MYR 3.8800	5 : 1
SAPCRES-CC	11/10/2011	Call	MYR 2.4000	3 : 1
MAYBANK-JA	11/10/2011	Bull	MYR 7.0400	10 : 1	MYR 7.4800
PBBANK-JA	11/10/2011	Bull	MYR 10.0500	15 : 1	MYR 10.6800

6 New Call Warrants

6 new call warrants from OSK will be listed on 12 Oct 2010:

New Warrants	Expiration	Type	Ex Price	Ratio
DRBHCOM-CB	7/10/2011	Call	MYR 1.2900	1 : 1
TCHONG-CE	7/10/2011	Call	MYR 5.6000	8 : 1
TOPGLOV-CD	7/10/2011	Call	MYR 5.3000	10 : 1
GENS-CC	7/10/2011	Call	SGD 1.9500	8 : 1
GENHK-C2	7/10/2011	Call	USD 0.4500	3 : 1
SLV-C1	7/10/2011	Call	USD 20.5000	90 : 1

The easiest way to compute the warrant premium is to used the one and only Bursa Malaysia Warrant Calculator!

World Market Weekly Summary

Problem? What problem? The stock market seems to have forgotten the Greeks, the PIIGS, the jobless, the property bubble or anything.

World	Monthly	Weekly	Daily
S&P500	Up	Up	Up
DJI	Up	Up	Up
NasdaqComp	Up	Up	Up
Nikkei 225	Down	Neutral	Up (+)
Kospi	Up	Up	Up
SSECI	Down	Neutral	Up (+)
HSI	Up	Up	Up
TWII	Up	Up	Up
STI	Up	Up	Up
JKSE	Up	Up	Up
SENSEX	Up	Up	Up
AORD	Up	Up	Up (+)
NZX50	Up	Up	Up (+)
FTSE	Up	Up	Up
DAX	Up	Up	Up (+)
RTSI	Up	Up	Up
Bovespa	Up	Up	Up

.....but one day, we may get caught off guard again....and kaboom! But that day was not yesterday :p

Bursa Malaysia Weekly Summary

Every sector is very extended now. Correction is imminent but can't say exactly when. If you have a position, sit tight. If no position, then just watch.

Malaysia	Monthly	Weekly	Daily
FBM KLCI	Up	Up	Up
Finance	Up	Up	Up
Construction	Up	Up	Up
Plantation	Up	Up	Up
Property	Up	Up	Up

International Reserves of BNM

Date	MYR (billion)	USD (billion)
15-Sep-10	313.3	95.9
30-Sep-10	310.8	100.7

Source.

Crude Oil

WTI Crude Oil Weekly Chart

Watch out!17 months of consolidation where crude oil traded between 60-87 may be over. There is a possibility of it breaking above 87 this time. If the price goes up too fast, we are gonna have another recession.

Election time is coming, will rising crude oil (therefore rising petrol price) be the factor for a change?

5 New Structured Warrants

5 new warrants from CIMB will be listed on 5 Oct 2010:

New Warrants	Expiration	Type	Ex Price	Ratio	Call Price
PROTON-CF	4/10/2011	Call	MYR 4.8000	5 : 1
GENTING-CV	4/10/2011	Call	MYR 9.8000	12 : 1
TENAGA-CR	4/10/2011	Call	MYR 9.0000	6 : 1
GENM-JA	4/10/2011	Bull	MYR 2.5500	5 : 1	MYR 2.7000
GENHK-C1	4/10/2011	Call	USD 0.5000	3 : 1

World Market Weekly Summary

Monthly charts are now pointing up (except for Japan & SSE). Daily chart shows some weakness, indicating profit taking is just around the corner. The Fed is determined to print for money (QE2), that is why the dollar is sinking. Anyhow, daily chart for the Dollar Index is very oversold, therefore, a rebound is imminent. However, the weekly chart indicates that the Dollar Index still has room to fall.

Summary:

World	Monthly	Weekly	Daily
S&P500	Up (+)	Up	Up
DJI	Up (+)	Up	Up
NasdaqComp	Up (+)	Up	Up
Nikkei 225	Down	Neutral	Neutral (-)
Kospi	Up	Up	Up
SSECI	Down	Neutral (+)	Neutral
HSI	Up	Up	Up
TWII	Up	Up	Up
STI	Up	Up	Up
JKSE	Up	Up	Up
SENSEX	Up	Up	Up
AORD	Up (+)	Up	Neutral (-)
NZX50	Up (+)	Up	Neutral (-)
FTSE	Up (+)	Up	Up
DAX	Up	Up	Neutral (-)
RTSI	Up	Up	Up
Bovespa	Up	Up	Up

Bursa Malaysia Weekly Summary

KLCI Weekly Chart

KLCI: Still in overbought zone. Daily chart still show weakness. A stronger correction should take it down to 1440.

Construction Sector Weekly Chart

Construction: Looks like it has clearly broken to the upside. Next resistance is at around 285. It seems that the market doesn't care whether the government has money to built more infrastructure. One suggestion to Mr. Prime Minister: List Petronas at Bursa Malaysia. Everyone will love it!

Sector summary:

Malaysia	Monthly	Weekly	Daily
FBM KLCI	Up	Up	Up (+)
Finance	Up	Up	Up (+)
Construction	Up	Up	Up
Plantation	Up	Up	Up (+)
Property	Up	Up	Up

6 New Call Warrants

Warrant time again! 6 new call warrants from OSK will be listed on 30 Sept 2010:

New Warrants	Expiration	Type	Ex Price	Ratio
BURSA-CQ	27/09/2011	Call	MYR 7.8000	8 : 1
PROTON-CD	27/09/2011	Call	MYR 4.6000	7 : 1
TENAGA-CQ	27/09/2011	Call	MYR 8.5000	10 : 1
RHBCAP-CD	27/09/2011	Call	MYR 6.5000	8 : 1
CIMB-CJ	27/09/2011	Call	MYR 8.0000	10 : 1
GENTING-CU	27/09/2011	Call	MYR 10.0000	10 : 1

8 New Warrants

4 new call warrants from AM will be listed on 28 Sept 2010:

New Warrants	Expiration	Type	Ex Price	Ratio
QL-CA	14/09/2011	Call	MYR 4.5000	6 : 1
PROTON-CE	14/09/2011	Call	MYR 4.8500	8 : 1
SAPCRES-CB	14/09/2011	Call	MYR 2.3800	3 : 1
KENCANA-CD	14/09/2011	Call	MYR 1.5000	3 : 1

4 new warrants (1 call, 1 put, 1 bull, 1 bear) from CIMB will also be listed on 28 Sept 2010:

New Warrants	Expiration	Type	Ex Price	Ratio	Call Price
HSI-CD	29/09/2011	Call	20,000.00	3000 : 1
HSI-H2	29/09/2011	Put	20,000.00	3000 : 1
HSI-J1	29/06/2011	Bull	16,964.00	3000 : 1	18,024.00
HSI-K1	29/06/2011	Bear	25,446.00	3000 : 1	24,386.00

Interesting Charts: Property

Can BNM curb the steep rise in property price? Money always flow to an asset that the investor/speculator thinks that he can make money. For Malaysian, it is either the stock market or property. Since so many people still remembers the 1997/1998 crash, the natural choice for people in that era is property. Is property a bubble? Well, do you know anyone that have to queue up overnight to buy a house? If the answer is no, then it is not in a bubble phase yet.

Anyhow, keep a look out at the property stocks, it could still run up due to the inflation expectation.

SPSetia Weekly Chart

SPSetia: Broke out from a triangle pattern, tested the breakout point and it seems that it is now going up again. If it can break 4.70, then the next resistance is at 5.20.

IJMLand Weekly Chart

IJMLand: Trapped in a flag pattern. A look at the weekly RSI indicates that it could soon break out from this pattern. Breakout point is 2.50.

IGB Weekly Chart

IGB: Looks like accumulation for the past 3 months. Could be making a move soon.

Glomac Weekly Chart

Glomac: The pattern is similar to SPSetia. Resistance is at around 1.65-1.75.

E&O Weekly Chart

E&O: Trying to breakout. Weekly RSI indicates that this is going to happen soon.

Disclosure: Long SPSetia, IJMLand and E&O.

World Market Weekly Summary

It seems that the inflation play is now on! Commodities are all performing very well now. In a fiat currency system, one can always devalue the currency to prevent deflation. If Uncle Ben cannot kill the deflation threat will bullets, then he is sure going to bomb it out!

Dollar Index Futures Weekly Chart

Look at the Dollar Index chart, it indicates that the USD is gonna have another selldown. We should be seeing MYR under 3 to a USD by end of this year. Hopefully, imported goods will be more affortable for us.

World market summary:

World	Monthly	Weekly	Daily
S&P500	Neutral	Up	Up
DJI	Neutral	Up	Up
NasdaqComp	Neutral	Up (+)	Up
Nikkei 225	Down	Neutral	Up (+)
Kospi	Up	Up	Up
SSECI	Down	Down (-)	Neutral
HSI	Up	Up	Up
TWII	Up	Up	Up
STI	Up	Up	Up
JKSE	Up	Up	Up
SENSEX	Up	Up	Up
AORD	Neutral	Up	Up
NZX50	Neutral	Up	Up
FTSE	Neutral	Up	Up
DAX	Up	Up	Up
RTSI	Up	Up	Up (+)
Bovespa	Up	Up	Up

Bursa Malaysia Weekly Summary

KLCI Weekly Chart

A bearish reversal candle in the weekly chart. Not a good sign! Today's high volume indicates that the baton is now being passed from bluechips to penny shares. When penny shares are hot, it signals the beginning of the end! 4 more trading days left for the fund managers to window dress their 3rd quarter account. What will happen after that? A correction before the year end window dressing?

Sector summary:

Malaysia	Monthly	Weekly	Daily
FBM KLCI	Up	Up	Neutral (-)
Finance	Up	Up	Neutral (-)
Construction	Up	Up	Up
Plantation	Up	Up	Neutral (-)
Property	Up	Up	Up

By the way, this fengshui index chart that I posted on 14 Feb 2010 looks very interesting. The chart does correlate with HSI & KLCI. Better don't short the market!