HONG KONG: The Dow Jones Index gained significantly in the previous year of the Golden Tiger in 1950, but Tiger years are typically marked by dramatic changes and even upheaval, said CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets in its 16th CLSA Feng Shui Index (CLSA FSI).
In the report with a tongue-in-cheek look at what 2010 held for equities, commodities, property, celebrities, and the zodiac signs in the months ahead, CLSA cautioned investors to view 2010, much like the tiger itself, as an energetic and powerful, but impulsive and risky, year ahead.
“Those trading equities should get set to ride the wild tiger. The markets will be volatile with a surge in the first month followed by a decline that turns upwards in June, dips, and then swings up again in September to see the Golden Tiger roar by January 2011,” it said in a statement.
With this Tiger year’s heavenly stem being metal, CLSA said gold was set to have a great run and it predicted that it could break US$2,000 (RM6,820) per ounce.
“In fact, commodities of all stripes will fare well including silver, copper, zinc and aluminium. Those regarded as ‘wood’ will also do very well: pulp and paper, clothing and pharmaceuticals.
“‘Fire’ and ‘earth’ elements, thus technology, power, telecoms and property will have a good yearbut ‘water’ related sectors will be challenged, translating to a bumpy time for shipping, airlines, logistics, autos and transport,” it said.
The following is CLSA’s month-by-month take on the year.
• February would bring fantastic opportunities for those sharp enough to recognise them and fast enough to grab them.
• March signals the start of three bumpy months, but there’ll be no shortage of good trades for those brave enough.
• In April, the influence of the stars of misfortune is especially disruptive, while the first few weeks of May will be feisty.
• June heralds a great month but maybe not the best for betting, although the June 21 summer solstice is especially auspicious and gold may surge.
• July is more relaxed with time to enact long-cherished plans and projects.
• August sees the return of volatility and precious metals look set to break upwards, especially gold, silver and copper.
• In September, the trend is upwards and a mixture of considered and idle speculations offers the possibility of eye-popping returns.
• October is possibly one of the best months of the year, with life returning to the markets. It marks the return of a sustained drive upwards that continues into November, December and January.
• Each of the last three months features an auspicious date; Nov 17, Dec 8, Jan 16.
• In terms of the Zodiac, a great year lies ahead for those born in the years of the Dragon, Sheep and particularly, the Horse. A relatively good year is in store for Rats, Cows, Rabbits, Roosters, Dogs and Pigs, while it will be a bumpy ride for Tigers, Snakes and Monkeys,” it said.
CLSA said the Golden Tiger year would favour China’s wealthiest woman, Nine Paper’s Zhang Yin, a Rooster in the Chinese zodiac.
“She will take on some of the toughest competition of her career and come out on top. For China’s wealthiest man, BYD CEO Wang Chuanfu, a Horse, the sun will continue to shine as it has since Warren Buffett invested into his company and set the price soaring.
“And for Buffett, also a horse, the future looks just as bright. He is about to enter the most financially lucky period of his life. Expect some significant and unusual developments in Berkshire Hathaway’s already substantial interest in China,” it said.
“As the Chinese saying goes: ‘Once on a tiger’s back, it is hard to get off’. But if you can hang on, it is certainly the safest place to be. Enjoy the ride and Happy New Year.”
This article appeared in The Edge Financial Daily, February 4, 2010.