Bursa Malaysia Weekly Summary

FBM KLCI Weekly Chart

KLCI has given me a buy signal. Most probably it will challenge 1300 in this month. This week, all small caps counters moved up strongly. As you all know, most of the time, I trade in bluechip's warrant. Therefore, no cheers for me. All my holdings are under correction mode. Hopefully, my counters will get back into action soon.

The summary for the rest of the sectors:

Malaysia	Monthly	Weekly	Daily	Note
FBM KLCI	Up	Up	Up (+)	R=1.3k, S=1.2k.
Finance	Up	Up	Up (+)	R=11k, S=9.5k.
Construction	Up	Up	Neutral	R=250, S=220. Correction
Plantation	Up	Up	Neutral	R=6.15k, S=5.8k. Correction
Property	Up	Up	Neutral	R=820, S=760. Correction

Note that I dropped the coverage of FBM ACE index because of the difficulty of updating the data.

International Reserves of BNM

Date	MYR (billion)	USD (billion)
15-Oct-09	334.2	95.9
30-Oct-09	334.6	96.0

Source.

CPO

CPO Weekly Chart

Weekly RSI analysis shows that CPO got potential to break the triangle pattern. So, watch out for the resumption of plantation play when this happens.

Asset reflation

Since I trade US stocks, I follow a lot of economic blogs. This blogger from Credit Writedowns has turned bullish based on the just released ISM manufacturing report. A little bit long but worth the reading.

The current investment theme is asset reflation. As Marc Faber has said, "you gotta be stupid by not making money when the government is throwing it at you" (can't find the link, but I really heard it from one of his interview).

Mother of All Carry Trades

Nouriel Roubini is warning you about the mother of all USD carry trade. So, beware!

Engtex

Engtex Weekly Chart

I bought Engtex in May 2009 as it indicated a breakout. However, the price falls back. This time, it has successfully overcame the downtrend line. I'm still holding. Weekly indicator indicates almost overbought and it is testing the previous high of 1.20. If it falls back, then I will be eyeballing its warrant (Engtex-wa, strike: MYR1.25, ex date: 25.10.2017). The warrant premium is high (30%), so need to wait for more reasonable valuation.

Disclosure: Long in Engtex.

Dreamgate (DGATE)

Dgate Weekly Chart

Dreamgate (DGATE) seems to be trading within 0.16 to 0.215 range. Downtrend line has been broken. So, this is a stock with good potential if it mange to breakout of the trading range. Keeping an eye of this stock.

Disclosure: No positions.

Commodity Weekly Summary

Rough Rice Futures Monthly Chart

Rough rice is making its move. Expect it to go higher.

Gold Futures Monthly Chart

Gold monthly chart is not yet overbought. Currently under correction (after hitting overbought zone in the weekly chart). Therefor, this is a good opportunity to get into this play.

Crude Oil Futures Monthly Chart

Crude oil futures keep going up even though the financial crisis is not yet over. Are speculators responsible for this or is it because of the fear of peak oil? Since crude oil has gone up so much in October, I expect it to correct a bit before resuming its uptrend.

CPO Monthly Chart

I think that CPO have found a new base and is now building strength for the next rally. If it can close above 2400, then the rally should heat up.

I'm Jobless (again!)

I am now jobless. The organization that I'm working with cannot secure new funding for the development of a new electronic payment system. Therefore, I'm let go as we have finished the existing budget.

Some how, I don't feel panic. Every crisis is an opportunity, correct? Ok, my plan is to blog and trade full-time in stocks, futures and forex. I give myself 6 months. If I cannot earn a living by then, then I will set up a char koay teow stall and hope that you all will come and support :D

For your information, I'm an electrical engineer with expertise in electronic payment system and secure system/protocol design. As I don't have the entrepreneur spirit and I don't really like to work for others (i.e. pointy-haired boss), therefore I am choosing a career in trading as it provides an opportunity for me to become my own boss. Hopefully, I can be as successful as him.

In the meantime, to pay for my bills, I offer my service to anyone that wants a trader/stock analyst (any extra $ will be much appreciated).

World Weekly Summary

SSECI Daily Chart

Looking at Shanghai SSECI daily chart, it looks like it is still not a firm ground for a rally. Look for downside support at 2850 +/- 10.

S&P 500 Weekly Chart

S&P 500 sell off just under the downtrend line. This is expected as no securities can break a downtrend line in is 1st challenge. No daily sell signal yet. So, best to wait for more clearer signal.

For the rest of the world, the summary is given below:

World	Monthly	Weekly	Daily	Note
S&P500	Up	Up	Neutral	R=1.12k, S=1.01k
DJI	Up	Up	Neutral (-)	R=10.1k.
NasdaqComp	Up	Up	Neutral (-)	R=2.18k
Nikkei 225	Up	Neutral (-)	Down (-)	Next R=11k
Kospi	Up	Neutral (-)	Down (-)	R=1.9k.
SSECI	Up	Up	Neutral (-)	R=3.5k. S=2.6k. Finding base.
HSI	Up	Up	Neutral (-)	R=23.5k, S=20k.
TWII	Up	Up	Neutral	R=7.9k. S=7k
STI	Up	Up	Neutral (-)	R=2.7k. S-2.52k
JKSE	Up	Neutral (-)	Neutral (-)	R=2.5k. S=2.3k
SENSEX	Up	Neutral (-)	Neutral	R=17.6k
AORD	Up	Up	Neutral (-)	R=4.9k
NZX50	Up	Up	Up	R=3.2k
FTSE	Up	Up	Neutral (-)	R=5.4k
DAX	Up	Neutral (-)	Neutral	R=6.15k
RTSI	Up	Up	Neutral (-)	R=1.5k
Bovespa	Up	Up	Neutral	R=66k

We can see that the majority of the markets have weakened some more. Hopefully the correction is not severe.

My strategy is to cut off positions that was entered at the wrong time and keep the winners.

Weekly Summary

FBM KLCI Monthly Chart

Another up month. Monthly RSI and Stochastic indicates that the market can still go up as it is still not yet overbought.

FBM KLCI Weekly Chart

However, looking at the weekly chart, I see a possible break of uptrend line! For me, this means that it is not a time to buy. No solid sell signal yet. Correction still in progress. For the uptrend to continue, KLCI must consolidate between 1220 - 1250.

For the rest of the sectors, I see weakness but am not alarmed yet.

Malaysia	Monthly	Weekly	Daily	Note
FBM KLCI	Up	Up	Neutral (-)	R=1.3k, S=1.2k. Correction
Finance	Up	Up	Neutral (-)	R=11k, S=9.5k. Correction
Construction	Up	Up	Neutral (-)	R=250, S=220
Plantation	Up	Up	Neutral (-)	R=6.15k, S=5.8k
Property	Up	Up	Neutral (-)	R=820, S=760

Weekly Summary (late)

Sorry for posting this late. I was away on a vacation. Very tired now after walking the whole day for 4 straight days. I took a vacation to cure my work fatigue. But now, I need a vacation to cure my vacation fatigue!

No charts, just the tables of summary. This is for Bursa Malaysia (23 Oct 2009):

Malaysia	Monthly	Weekly	Daily	Note
FBM KLCI	Up	Up	Up	R=1.3k, S=1.15k. Overbought
Finance	Up	Up	Up	R=11k, S=9.5k. Overbought
Construction	Up	Up	Up	R=250, S=220
Plantation	Up	Up	Up	R=6.15k, S=5.8k
Property	Up	Up	Up	R=820, S=760

For the rest world (23 Oct 2009):

World	Monthly	Weekly	Daily	Note
S&P500	Up	Up	Neutral (-)	R=1.12k, S=1.01k
DJI	Up	Up	Up	R=10.1k.
NasdaqComp	Up	Up	Up	R=2.18k
Nikkei 225	Up	Up (+)	Up (+)	Next R=11k
Kospi	Up	Up	Neutral	R=1.9k.
SSECI	Up	Up (+)	Up (+)	R=3.5k. S=2.6k. Finding base.
HSI	Up	Up	Up	R=23.5k, S=20k.
TWII	Up	Up	Neutral (-)	R=7.9k. S=7k
STI	Up	Up	Up	R=2.7k. S-2.52k
JKSE	Up	Up	Up	R=2.5k. S=2.3k
SENSEX	Up	Up	Neutral (-)	R=17.6k
AORD	Up	Up	Up	R=4.9k
NZX50	Up	Up	Up	R=3.2k
FTSE	Up	Up	Up	R=5.4k
DAX	Up	Up	Neutral (-)	R=6.15k
RTSI	Up	Up	Up	R=1.5k
Bovespa	Up	Up	Neutral (-)	R=66k