Ads

Sunday, November 30, 2008

Where is Santa?

KLSE is not reacting to US stock movement. I'm still expecting a rebound. December is the month where stocks usually move up. In addition to that, the fund manager must do some window dressing to cover their miserable performance. But.......most of sector charts are still pointing down:
Malaysia Longterm Midterm Shorterm
KLCI Down Down Down
Finance Down Down Down
Construction Down Down Down
Plantation Down Down Neutral (+)
Property Down Down Down
Mesdaq Down Down Down
2nd Board Down Down Down

The rest of the world looks like stabilizing:
World Longterm Midterm Shorterm
S&P500 Down Down Neutral (+)
DJI Down Down Neutral (+)
NasdaqComp Down Down Neutral (+)
Nikkei 225 Down Down Neutral (+)
Kospi Down Down Neutral (+)
SSECI Down Down Neutral
HSI Down Down Neutral (+)
TWII Down Down Neutral (+)
STI Down Down Neutral (+)
SENSEX Down Down Down
FTSE Down Down Neutral (+)
DAX Down Down Neutral (+)

But please note that US stock market has gone up with decreasing volume. So when everyone is back after Thanksgiving, do expect the real action to continue.

Also, the talk of the town is that China is in panic mode. Their GDP may contract more. Now, if we can lend money to the Americans to continue their spending binge, maybe we can save the world from going into a severe recession.

If you are interested in US and world economy, then please do read the blog Calculated Risk.

Sunday, November 23, 2008

To Test The Downtrend Line?

All sectors are still pointing downwards:
Malaysia Longterm Midterm Shorterm
KLCI Down Down Down
Finance Down Down Down
Construction Down Down Down (-)
Plantation Down Down Down (-)
Property Down Down Down
Mesdaq Down Down Down (-)
2nd Board Down Down Down (-)

However, the downward pressure doesn't look strong. This observation is obtained base on the daily MACD reading that shows some contradiction with the price movement. A good chance that the rebound may continue towards the downtrend line that is currently at around 950. Maybe the rebound can just stuck at 920 again. The important point is that the probability is still not favorable for going long.


KLCI Daily Chart

For the rest of the world, the reading is still gloomy:
World Longterm Midterm Shorterm
S&P500 Down Down Down
DJI Down Down Down
NasdaqComp Down Down Down
Nikkei 225 Down Down Down
Kospi Down Down Down
SSECI Down Down Neutral
HSI Down Down Down
TWII Down Down Down
STI Down Down Down
SENSEX Down Down Down
FTSE Down Down Down
DAX Down Down Down

After China unveiled its stimulus package, SSECI seems to have stabilize. Well, President elect Obama has unveiled his stimulus package that will create 2.5 million jobs. My questions are:
1. Where is he going to get the money?
2. Can the banks be saved before the effect is seen?
3. Are investment bankers and auto plant workers going to the work of shovelling sands, welding metals and laying bricks?

Anyway, base on the Chinese announcement and the effect on the Shanghai stock market, I guess that NYSE and Nasdaq will also stabilize (unless Citi crashes on this coming Monday).

Saturday, November 15, 2008

Continuing Down?

KLCI rebound may be over. If 800 breaks, then the next possible support is around 640.
Malaysia Longterm Midterm Shorterm
KLCI Down Down Down (-)
Finance Down Down Down (-)
Construction Down Down Neutral
Plantation Down Down Neutral
Property Down Down Down (-)
Mesdaq Down Down Neutral
2nd Board Down Down Neutral

US roller coaster ride may reach another cliff that will clearly break the Oct 10 lows (I'm talking about DJI).
World Longterm Midterm Shorterm
S&P500 Down Down Down
DJI Down Down Down
NasdaqComp Down Down Down
Nikkei 225 Down Down Down (-)
Kospi Down Down Down (-)
SSECI Down Down Neutral (+)
HSI Down Down Down (-)
TWII Down Down Down
STI Down Down Down (-)
SENSEX Down Down Down (-)
FTSE Down Down Down (-)
DAX Down Down Down (-)

By the way, have you seen the news concerning China's Oct industrial production growth? 8% increase. But wait a minute, the electricity consumption contracted by 4%! Huh?!

Thursday, November 13, 2008

The Global Bailout Map

I want more sir! 20 billion --> 85 billion --> 700 billion --> gazillion ???

The global bailout map

The more you bailout the sick companies, the more I'm scared.

Wednesday, November 12, 2008

The End

A great article from Michael Lewis. It is about the people that saw and profited from this subprime crisis.

Saturday, November 08, 2008

Rebounding

KLCI Daily Chart

KLCI had a big bounce from 800 to 900. Downtrend line resistance is at 950-970. So, will it go higher? What are the fundamentals for it to go higher? A new US president does not mean that the problem will go away overnight. The next fear factor may be China contracting GDP.

My interpretations for the various sectors in KLSE are:
Malaysia Longterm Midterm Shorterm
KLCI Down Down Neutral (+)
Finance Down Down Neutral (+)
Construction Down Down Neutral (+)
Plantation Down Down Neutral (+)
Property Down Down Neutral (+)
Mesdaq Down Down Neutral (+)
2nd Board Down Down Neutral (+)

For the rest of the world:
World Longterm Midterm Shorterm
S&P500 Down Down Down (-)
DJI Down Down Down (-)
NasdaqComp Down Down Down (-)
Nikkei 225 Down Down Neutral (+)
Kospi Down Down Neutral (+)
SSECI Down Down Down
HSI Down Down Neutral (+)
TWII Down Down Down
STI Down Down Neutral (+)
SENSEX Down Down Neutral (+)
FTSE Down Down Neutral
DAX Down Down Neutral

Monday, November 03, 2008

World Market (20081031)

Asian markets are still pointing down. The US seems to have stabilized but it was the end of month, so some funds may have done some window dressing. The selling pressure seems to have subsided but this may be the calm before the next storm.
World Longterm Midterm Shorterm
S&P500 Down Down Neutral (+)
DJI Down Down Neutral (+)
NasdaqComp Down Down Neutral (+)
Nikkei 225 Down Down Down
Kospi Down Down Down
SSECI Down Down Down
HSI Down Down Down
TWII Down Down Down
STI Down Down Down
SENSEX Down Down Down
FTSE Down Down Neutral (+)
DAX Down Down Neutral (+)

Saturday, November 01, 2008

KLCI (31 Oct 2008)

KLCI Monthly Chart

The support at around 800 has been tested and is still holding. It may rebound to the 930-980 region. If the 800 level is broken, then the next support is at 550 to 650.

Major KLSE sectors are still bearish:
Malaysia Longterm Midterm Shorterm
KLCI Down Down Down
Finance Down Down Down
Construction Down Down Down
Plantation Down Down Down
Property Down Down Down
Mesdaq Down Down Down
2nd Board Down Down Down

Cheap Sales (10): Property

Property Sector Index

16 years of bear market! The index value is currently at support level. If this fails, the next one will be at 400.

KLCCP Monthly Index

This one still looks strong. Technically, it has broken its uptrend line support and the next possible support is at 2.30.

Mahsing Monthly Chart

This one also looks strong. I thought of playing the rebound game but back off due to bad market sentiment. Next possible support is at 1.00.


SPSetia Monthly Chart

The next possible support is at 2.50.

Suncity Monthly Chart

The next possible support is at 1.30.

Sunrise Monthly Chart

Tested the final uptrend line support and still holding. If this fails, then the next possible support is at 0.70.

Cheap Sales (9): Oil & Gas

I really don't understand how this people think or analyze. Aseambankers has downgraded the oil and gas sector to underweight on Friday (Oct 31, 2008). They did it after the sector has loss 50 to 80 % of value from the peak! Errr...should you give us a much earlier warning?


Dialog Monthly Chart

Tested the uptrend line at 0.50.

Kencana Weekly Chart

Moving within a downtrend channel.


KNM Monthly Chart

What happened to this industry's darling? Tested its uptrend line at 0.40.


Muhibah Monthly Chart

Broken its uptrend line. Tested the support at around 0.65. If this fails, then the next possible support is at 0.25.


Penergy Weekly Chart

Still in downtrend. No idea where is the support.

Petra Monthly Chart

Broken its uptrend line. Next possible support is 1.00.


Sapcres Monthly Chart

Uptrend line at 0.60 seems to be holding after some panic selling. If this breaks, the next possible uptrend line support is at 0.30.


Waseong Monthly Chart

Broken its uptrend line. Next possible support is at 0.85.

Summary: All O&G counters are still in bear mode. No base building or reversal signal seen. Rebound should happen as they have been very oversold.

Cheap Sales (8): Airline

AirAsia Monthly Chart

Still in downtrend. Should challenge the previous low of 0.76.

MAS Monthly Chart

Resting at its uptrend line. If this breaks, the next possible support is at 2.40.

Cheap Sales (7): Shipping

Maybulk Monthly Chart

Looks like going back to square one. Supports: 1.90 (an uptrend line that is not shown in the chart above because I forgot to draw it and I'm lazy to upload the file for the 2nd time) and 1.60.

MISC Weekly Chart

This is a boring counter. Volume is very low. Next possible supports: 7.20 and 6.00.

Cheap Sales (6): Power

Tenaga Monthly Chart

Uptrend broken. Next possible supports: 4.50 and 1.60. If USD continues to rise, this stock is going to get toasted.

YTLPowr Monthly Chart

Uptrend broken. Next possible supports: 1.45 and 1.00.