Friday, November 30, 2007
AIC AIKBEE AIRPORT AJI ALAM ALLIANZ APM APOLLO ASIAFLE ASIATIC ATIS ATLAN-WA ATURMJU AUTOAIR AUTOAIR-WA AZRB BERNAS BHIC BJCORP BJCORP-LC BJLAND BJLAND-LB BKAWAN BLDPLNT BONIA BONIA-WA BSDREIT BURSA CBIP CBSTECH CCB CCK CEPAT CEPCO CHINTEK CIHLDG CNLT COMPUGT CRESBLD D&O DBE DEGEM DELLOYD DFZ-PA DIGI DKCORP DLADY EBCAP EDARAN EFFICEN EKIB EON F&N FAREAST FCW FFHB FIMACOR FORMOST GBH GBRIDGE GCE-WA GNEALY GPERAK-NA GPLUS HAIO HALIFAX HALIFAX-WA HAPSENG HARISON HARNLEN HARNLEN-WA HARVEST HEXAGON HIGHTEC HLBANK HPI HUPSENG ICAP IE IJM IJMPLNT INCKEN INSAS-LA INSBIO INTEGRA INTI IOICORP ITRONIC JAKS JPK KENMARK KESM KFC KLCCP KLK KMLOONG KMLOONG-WA KNM KPOWER KRETAM KRETAM-LA KRETAM-WA KSENG KULIM KULIM-WB KWANTAS LANDMRK LIONCOR LIONDIV LKT LOH&LOH LPI LTKM MAEMODE MAGNA MAGNA-WA MAGNI MAGNUM MAS MENTIGA MERCES MERCURY MHC MINETEC MITHRIL-LB MITRA-WB MMCCORP MMM-PA MPCORP MPHB MTEAM MUH NESTLE NPC NSOP NVMULTI NYLEX PA PADINI PANAMY PAOS PBBANK PERMAJU PICORP PIE PJBUMI PLB PLB-WA PLUS POHKONG PPB QSR RAMUNIA-LA REDTONE RSAWIT RVIEW SBAGAN SDKM SILVER SILVER-WA SIME SINDORA SKBSHUT SOP SOP-WA SPRITZR SSTEEL TAKAFUL TALAM-PA TALIWRK TANAMAS TCHONG TDM TECGUAN TENAGA-LA TM TOMEI TRC TRC-WA TRIPLC TSH TWS TWSPLNT UBG UMCCA UNICO UTDPLT VADS WATTA YEELEE YIKON YTL YTLPOWR YTLPOWR-WA YUNKONG ZA-OSKSB
ABRIC-WA ACOSTEC ADVPKG AEM AFG AHB AHEALTH AIC-WB AIM AIRASIA AIROCOM AISB AKN AKNMTEC ALAQAR ALCOM AMFIRST AMMB AMMB-WB AMWAY ANALABS ANCOM-WA APB APEX APLAND APLI ARK ASAS ASB ASB-WA ASIABRN-WA ASIAEP ASIAEP-WA ASIAPAC ASIAPLY ASTINO ASUPREM ATRIUM AVENTUR AWC AXREIT BANENG BASWELL BCB BCTTECH BDB BERTAM BGYEAR BIG BIG-WA BKOON BOLTON BORNOIL BORNOIL-WA BPURI BREM BREM-WA CAELY CAMERLN CARLAW CARLSBG CAROTEC CCM CENBOND CHASE CHASE-WA CHEETAH CHOOBEE CICB CMSB CNASIA CNI COCOLND COMMERZ CONNECT CRESNDO CSCENIC CWORKS CYBERT CYL CYMAO DAIBOCI DAYA DBHD DIALOG DISCOMP DISTECH DKLS DNP DOLMITE DOMINAN DRBHCOM DXN E&O E&O-WA E&OPROP EBWORX ECM ECOFIRS-WB EDEN EDEN-WA EFORCE EG EG-LA EKOVEST EKOVEST-WA EKOWOOD EKSONS EMICO EMICO-WA EMIVEST ENGKAH ENGLOTC ENGTEX ENVAIR EONCAP EPMB EPMB-WA EQUINE ESCERAM ESSO EUPE EVERGRN EVERMAS FABER FACBIND FAJAR FARLIM FARMBES FASTRAK FBO FCW-WA FIAMMA FOCAL FOCUS FSBM FURNWEB GABLUE GADANG GEFUNG GENTING GFB-WB GKENT GKENT-LA GLOBALC GLOMAC GLOSOFT GMUTUAL GOLSTA GPA GPACKET GRANFLO GREENYB GSB GTRONIC GUANCHG GUINESS HAISAN HALIM HEVEA HEVEA-WA HEXZA HIAPTEK HICITY HIL HIRO HOHUP HOOVER HOVID HSLEONG HUAAN HUAYANG HUMEIND HUNZPTY HUNZPTY-WA HWATAI HWATAI-WA HYTEXIN IBRACO ICP IDAMAN IFCAMSC IGB ILB IMASPRO INFOTEC INGENS INGRESS INIX INSAS INSAS-WA IPMUDA IPOWER IQGROUP IREKA IRIS IRIS-WA IRMGRP ISS ISYODA JADI JASKITA JAVA JAVA-WA JERASIA JHM JLAND JMI JMR JOHOTIN JOTECH JTIASA K1 KAF KANNAL KASSETS KBUNAI KELADI KEN KENANGA KEURO KFIMA KHIND KIMHIN KLCITY KNUSFOR KOBAY KOMARK KOMARK-WA KONSORT KOSMO KOSSAN KOTRA KPSCB KRAMAT KSL KUCHAI KURASIA L&G LATEXX LAYHONG LBALUM LBALUM-WA LBS LCHEONG LCHEONG-WA LCTH LDAUN LEESK LEWEKO LIENHOE LIIHEN LINEAR LINGUI LIONFIB LIPO LIQUA LIQUA-WA LNGRES LSTEEL LUSTER M3NERGY MAHJAYA MAICA MALTON MAMEE-WA MARCO MARCO-WA MAXTRAL MAYPAK MBFHLDG-WA MCMTECH MECHMAR MEDAINC MEDIA MEDIA-LA MELEWAR MELEWAR-WA MEMS MENANG MENANG-WA METALR METROD METROK MEXTER MFCB MFLOUR MICROLN MIECO-WA MILUX MINHO MINTYE MISC-CA MITHRIL MITHRIL-LA MITHRIL-WB MITRA MKLAND MKLAND-WA MNC MOBIF MQTECH MRCB MSNIAGA MTDINFR MUDA MUDAJYA MUIIND-LB MUIPROP MULPHA-WA MULPHAL MULPHAL-WA MULTICO MYCOM MYCRON N2N NAIM NAMFATT NAMFATT-LB NARRA NATWIDE NEPLINE NEPLINE-WA NEXNEWS-WA NGIUKEE NGIUKEE-WA NIHSIN NIKKO NTPM OCB OCNCASH OFI OIB OILCORP OKA OLYMPIA ONASTEL OPCOM OSK OSK-WB OSKPROP OSKPROP-WA OSKVI PACMAS PALETTE PANTECH PARAGON PARAMON PASDEC PATIMAS-WA PBA PCCS PDZ PECD PELIKAN PENSONI PENTA PERISAI PERSTIM PHARMA PILECON PJDEV PJDEV-WB PJI PK PLENITU PMCAP PMCORP PMHLDG PNEPCB POHUAT-WA POLYTWR POS PPG PPHB PRDUREN PREMIUM PRESTAR PRESTAR-WA PRIME PRLEXUS PROTON PRTASCO PSIPTEK PTB PTGTIN PTGTIN-WA PUNCAK-NA PWORTH QCAPITA QUALITY RALCO RAMUNIA-WA RANHILL RCI REX REXIT RHYTHM RUBEREX SAAG SAAG-WA SAMUDRA SAPCRES SAPCRES-WA SAPIND SAPRES SBCCORP SCIB SCIB-WA SCICOM SCIENTX SCIPACK SCOMI SCOMIEN SCOMIMR SCOPE SDRED SEAL SEG SERNKOU SERSOL SHH SINORA SITATT SKPRES SMI SMI-LB SMISCOR SMRTECH SPB SPK SPSETIA SRII STAMCOL STAMCOL-WA STAREIT STEMLFE SUBUR SUMATEC SUNCRN SUNRISE SUPERMX SYMPHNY SYMPHNY-WA TA TA-WB TAFI TALAM TAMADAM-WA TAMCORP TANJONG TCUBES TDEX TEBRAU TECFAST TEKALA TEKSENG TENAGA-CA TEXCYCL TGOFFS TGOFFS-WA TGUAN TIME TIMECOM TIMWELL TITAN TMS TOMYPAK TONGHER TOPGLOV TOYOCEM TOYOINK TPC TSM TSRCAP TSTORE UAC UCHITEC UDSCAP UDSCAP-WA UEMBLDR UEMWRLD UKB ULICORP UMLAND UMS UMSNGB UPA UTUSAN VERSATL VINTAGE VIS VIZTEL WANGZNG WEIDA WELLCAL WELLI WIJAYA WILLOW WONG WOODLAN WTHORSE WWCABLE YAHORNG YECHIU YGL YILAI YINSON YLI YNHPROP YOKO-WA YONGTAI YSPSAH YTLLAND YTLLAND-PA ZECON ZECON-WA
My failure to get better result is due to wrong position sizing. I have 250k to play, but I was trading just like my actual account size. At the beginning I was using only 30% of the capital to play, that was just at the time HK CWs were starting to move up. This 30% generated most of the profit. By the time I realize my position sizing problem, it was quite late for me to play catch up anymore. When I try to use the correct sizing, it was almost at the end of the bullishness.
Honestly, I didn't really understand the concept of position sizing until I play this game. So I learn something!
Wednesday, November 28, 2007
If one cannot trust the numbers, then how can you make your investment decision? My solution is chart reading. But this is not a simple as abc. Chart reading is an art also. At least your fate is in your own hands.
Talking about charts, HK seems to be stabilizing. Hopefully no more volatile moves. The first counter to come out of this consolidation maybe Cnooc. So watch out. No signals for Cnooc-C1 yet. Since it only have 3 months more to live, I'm staying out until I'm sure that Cnooc is going up. I think Cnooc-C2 is in the production pipeline. I think it's better to wait for it before making any decision.
Monday, November 26, 2007
My Excel list of CWs is getting longer. Its becoming a chore to maintain it now. But no choice, if want to play, then need to work. No free lunch.
Friday, November 23, 2007
Friday, November 23, 2007
It's time to bet on, says Hong Kong's stock guru Lee Shau-kee, who is ready to throw HK$10 billion into the market when everything has cleared up.
Lee, dubbed "Asia's Warren Buffett,"said he sees the silver lining in the gloomy sentiment. "I'll split the lump of money into two shots, that is HK$5 billion each," he told a media conference announcing his donation of HK$500 million to the University of Hong Kong.
The first half, he said, will be used in a couple of days, "I already spent between HK$1 billion and HK$2 billion to buy stocks in the market today [Thursday], and will splash out the rest tomorrow [Friday]." He said he still has to see when to spend the other HK$5 billion.
Lee recalled he pulled the siren last week that the market may go very volatile; it did, as the Hang Seng Index dropped some 3,000 points this week.
"But today it's not at all the same," Asia's second richest man said.
The negative news, he explained, has at least been partly exposed, like the huge losses brought about by the subprime crisis in Europe and North America, and the mainland's cooling measures to contain an overheating economy.
"Now seize your chance to buy low," he said.
A self-proclaimed analyst, Lee said all stocks have their elemental - metal, water, wood, fire and earth.
"I always have a preference over the metal or gold, which represents the financial sector such as insurance companies and banks," he said.
The 79-year-old new age geomancist recommended Hong Kong Exchange and Clearing (0388) and Chinese Merchants Bank (3968), "but I currently hold just a little of HKEx."
While having "little feeling" over water and wood elements, Lee also liked fire, the energy industry. "That means something burnable."
He endorsed CNOOC (0883) for the first time as a good choice of investment.
Earth element, representing real estate, is a little complicated, according to Lee.
"They are also good in the long term, but as I said last month, we should be cautious about those stocks."$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$
Well, if my neighbor selects his stocks based on fengshui, I will say bullshit and laugh at his face. But when Mr. Lee does that, I need to take notice and look up the charts. It's not only because he is rich (and got lots of bullets) and a pro in the stock market, but also many people take his advice seriously.
The HSI weekly chart shows that breakout occurs on Sept 14 (25,000). The brown color line shows that the correction should halt at around 26,000. If this happens, then the bulls have a chance of pushing it to 32,000 (and above?). If not, then next strong support is at 23,000 (everyone will cry red tears if this happens).
So, keep an eye on those metal and fire stocks. It will be your Christmas present and hopefully CNY ang pow.
Thursday, November 22, 2007
My daily+weekly filter says that the following are in downtrend (359 counters in total) after the close of trading for 22 Nov 2007. Some counters may actually oscillates from up to down (range bound movement, i.e. YTL). As my filter is not intelligent enough, this type of movement will show up in uptrend/downtrend filter alternately. Almost all CWs are not captured in this filter as their history is too short.
ABRIC-WA ACOSTEC AFG AHEALTH AIRASIA AIROCOM AISB AKNMTEC ALCOM AMFIRST AMMB AMMB-WB ANCOM-WA APB APEX APLAND APLI ASIAPAC ASTINO ASUPREM ATRIUM AVENTUR AWC AXREIT BASWELL BCB BCTTECH BDB BERTAM BIG BIG-WA BJTOTO BKOON BOLTON BOXPAK BREM-WA CAMERLN CANONE CARLAW CARLSBG CAROTEC CCM CCMDBIO CENBOND CHASE-WA CNI COCOLND COMMERZ CRESNDO CSCENIC CYBERT CYMAO DAIBOCI DAYA DBHD DIALOG DISTECH DKLS DKSH DOLMITE DOMINAN DRBHCOM DXN E&OPROP EBWORX ECM EFORCE EG EKOVEST EKOVEST-WA EKOWOOD EKSONS ELSOFT EMICO EMICO-WA ENGLOTC ENGTEX EONCAP EPMB EQUINE ESCERAM EUPE FACBIND FARLIM FASTRAK FBO FOCAL FOCUS FSBM FTEC FURNWEB GABLUE GADANG GEFUNG GENTING GFB-WB GKENT GLOBALC GLOMAC GLOSOFT GMUTUAL GPA GPACKET GSB HALIM HEXZA HICITY HIL HOHUP HOOVER HUAAN HUATLAI HUAYANG HUNZA HUNZPTY HUNZPTY-WA IBRACO IFCAMSC IGB ILB INGRESS INIX INSAS INSAS-WA IPOWER IREKA IRIS IRIS-WA IRMGRP ISS JADI JASKITA JAVA JERASIA JHM JLAND JMR JOHOTIN JOTECH K1 KAMDAR KASSETS KELADI KEN KENANGA KEURO KFIMA KHIND KIMHIN KLCITY KOMARK KOMARK-WA KONSORT KOSMO KOSSAN KPSCB L&G LATEXX LBALUM LBALUM-WA LBICAP LBS LCTH LEESK LEWEKO LIIHEN LINEAR LINGUI LIONFIB LIPO LIQUA LIQUA-WA LNGRES LSTEEL M3NERGY MAHJAYA MALTON MARCO MBFHLDG-WA MCMTECH MECHMAR MEDAINC MELEWAR MELEWAR-WA MEMS MENANG METALR METROD METROK MEXTER MFCB MICROLN MIECO-WA MILUX MINHO MINTYE MISC-CA MITHRIL-WB MITRA MKLAND MKLAND-WA MNC MOBIF MQTECH MSNIAGA MTDINFR MUDA MUDAJYA MUIIND-LB MUIPROP MULPHAL-WA MULTICO MYCOM MYCRON N2N NAIM NAMFATT NAMFATT-LB NARRA NEPLINE NGIUKEE NGIUKEE-WA NIKKO NTPM OCB OFI OIB OLYMPIA ONASTEL OPCOM OSK OSK-WB OSKPROP OSKVI PACMAS PALETTE PARAMON PASDEC PECD PELIKAN PENSONI PENSONI-WA PERISAI PERSTIM PILECON PJDEV-WB PJI PK PMCAP PMCORP PMHLDG POHUAT-WA POLYTWR PPG PRDUREN PREMIUM PRESTAR PRESTAR-WA PRIME PROTON PRTASCO PSIPTEK PTGTIN PUNCAK-NA PWORTH RALCO RESORTS REXIT RHYTHM-WA SAAG SAAG-WA SAMUDRA SAPCRES SAPCRES-WA SAPRES SBCCORP SCIB SCIB-WA SCICOM SCIENTX SCOMIEN SCOMIMR SDRED SEAL SERNKOU SINORA SITATT SKPRES SMI SMI-LB SMISCOR SMPC SMPC-WA SMRTECH SOLUTN SPB SPK STAMCOL-WA STAREIT STEMLFE SUMATEC SUNCRN SUNRISE SYMPHNY SYMPHNY-WA TA TA-WB TAFI TAMADAM-WA TANJONG TCUBES TEBRAU TECFAST TEKALA TEKSENG TENAGA-CA TGUAN TIENWAH TIMECOM TIMWELL TITAN TMS TOMYPAK TOPGLOV TOYOCEM TPC TRACOMA TSM UCHITEC UDSCAP UEMBLDR UKB ULICORP UMSNGB UPA UTUSAN VERSATL VINTAGE VIZTEL WEIDA WELLCAL WELLI WIJAYA WONG WTHORSE WTK WWTKH-LA YHS YILAI YINSON YLI YNHPROP YSPSAH YTL YTL-WB YTLLAND YTLLAND-PA ZECON ZECON-WA
HK and China stocks has yet to stabilize. The CW for these counters are getting really attractive but I dare not do day trading. I just don't have the necessary tools or skills or mental strength for day trading.
Keep a lookout for S&P 500, if it breaks 1400, then confirm bear. I think it will break soon as Nasdaq100 has broken it's uptrendline. US presidential election is 1 year away, so I'm not sure when the decline will halt and go for a rally.
Anyway, I think Abdullah will be in bigger trouble if the stock market did not rally as the deadline for election is getting nearer each passing day. Well, you need money for campaign etc. You need to make the voters happy. In essence, you need to indirectly buy off their votes. Well, stock market is the same everywhere, politic is also the same everywhere because it involves human. Ok, enough of politic.
Wednesday, November 21, 2007
You better not buy, I'm telling you why,
Santa Claus is not coming to town.
Hang Seng is going down, no end in sight,
Cause naughty bankers, that caused sub-prime,
Santa Claus is not coming to town.
The boys and girls at Wall Street,
Created toxic derivatives,
They screw everyone else,
But pay big fat bonus for themselves.
You better watch out, you better not cry,
You better not hope, I'm telling you why,
Santa Claus is not coming to town.
Santa Claus is not coming,
Santa Claus is not coming,
he's not coming to town........!!!!!!
P.S. He he he. Just to pass the boredom. Still waiting for the bottom.
Sunday, November 18, 2007
Trend is still up but weakening. Still above the 1994 high.
Trend is still up. But weakening. Maybe just consolidating?
Still holding. Looks like base building. No worries until is close lower than 1377.
With the listing of Synergy on 30 Nov, according to OSK calculation, the index may jump 30 points!
So we shall wait for the year end rally, CNY rally and election rally. What is the next theme? HK theme is currently down. O&G is not moving. Plantation is still up. Banking is not moving.
I got a feeling that this may be the start of the end of a good bull run. One more dash and then over and wait for another 5 years.
Thursday, November 15, 2007
Wednesday, November 14, 2007
Monday, November 12, 2007
Tuesday, November 06, 2007
Monday, November 05, 2007
That is how I think now. No need to queue and get that extra 1 cent. Just sell at market when the stop is hit. Be the first one to get through the door.
I think that HK CWs play are now over. Rebound here and there, that's the best. Maybe 1 to 2 months of consolidation. Today's cheap sale may be cheaper tomorrow. Jan expiration warrant will be in the immediate danger zone.
Another way to sense trouble: Look at the number of CW issues. If it suddenly increases, that means the pro thinks that the market is in trouble. Just remember, they lose if the underlying share goes up.
The bottom line is: Do not buy.
Sunday, November 04, 2007
I know Yahoo finance do provided the indexes that I'm looking for. The problem is that they don't have the historical data.
Anyone that is reading this entry, if you have the historical data in Metastock format, can you please kindly share it with me? I can update it myself from Yahoo.
Uptrendline broken. Trouble ahead. I don't think it will go up much. The question is how deep will be the correction.
Bearish divergence detected. Uptrendline still holding. Reward is not worth the risk.
Uptrendline broken. Bearish divergence detected. I guess it is also correction time. How deep?
Conclusion: No buying for HK CWs until a clearer picture emerge.
Saturday, November 03, 2007
I must admit, I did not read the fine print of the rules and regulation, but I don't think Bursa Malaysia Bhd is all0wed to released my personal information to a 3rd party! I don't recalled I have chosen to receive any email from any 3rd party.
This is a very unethical behavior from a big corporation in Malaysia.
Bursa Malaysia Bhd sold me out!
What will I do? I don't have the time to take this out officially but I know that this blog entry will be archived in Google's server forever.