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Monday, June 29, 2009

Hyperinflation Nation

Part 1 of 3:



Part 2 of 3:


Part 3 of 3:





My nearest encounter of hyperinflation is shown above. Yes, that is me with my ZWD500 million worthless paper :p

Nuclear and All be "Dam"ned!

Tenaga wants to built a nuclear reactor for electricity generation? Sarawak is crazy about dams?

Oh my gosh! What are these people thinking? More contracts? More profits?

First thing before we start constructing, we must start conserving the use of energy. Without conserving or proper strategy, all those constructing will not be enough. Look at Klang valley roads, no proper public transport and what has happenened? Flyovers zigzag here and there. If you leave KL for 1 year and came back, you will loose your way. Puchong flyovers, Sg. Besi flyovers, Damansara flyovers they all confuse me. Worse still, some of the flyovers really fly by your window.

Back to conservation of energy. I think that the government should have a master plan in reducing the usage of electricity. Ban those incandescent lamps. Provide subsidies for the usage of energy efficient light bulbs. Allow only the sale of efficient fridge, washine mashine, aircon and other consumer appliances. The idea is to reduce reduce reduce!

This also goes for water. It is time we take shorter shower. Water efficient shower head, stop those leaks etc. How many dams are we going to built to satisfied our water needs? Is it worth killing the forest so that we can be wasteful?

Do we only start to conserve when we cannot find any new source?

By the way, where do we store all those nuclear waste? I don't think that one can find any dry place in Malaysia to store them.

Well, in the long run, all be damned for short term gain.


Seeing Red

SSECI Daily Chart

SSECI value is now above the upper resistance channel. Do you see red packet (angpow) or red flag (danger) coming? Can this happen?

Are you tired of China's love affair with the USD? I love u not (25 Mar 2009)! I have to love u (31 Mar 200)! I love u not (1 Jun 2009), I love u not (26 Jun 2009)! I love u (29 Jun 2009)! Words doesn't mean a thing. Look at what China is trying to do, yuan/local currency settlement with Malaysia, Hong Kong, Russia and Brazil. Will it be successful? Well, every giant leap must begin with the first small step.

Sunday, June 28, 2009

Dollar Index

DX Daily Chart

Rising wedge broken in the DX chart. Commodities should surge. How will US stocks perform? Assuming that foreign investor pullout their funds due to depreciating USD, US assets should drop. But the surge of commodities should pull up commodities related stocks (i.e. miners, oil & gas service provider etc) if US citizens buy due to the perception of inflation (to protect their wealth)

You must also remember, even though the general population jobless rate is approaching 10%, those with money (a very limited number) may have the power to bid up the asset price because they have a lot of money to spare (see the inequality of wealth distribution for US). On the other hand, the rich people may decide to invest in the BRIC countries to take advantage of the strenthening of foreign currencies.

Ah, very confusing arguments. So, look into the charts for the clues on where will the market go.

World Market

Summary for the end of week 26 Jun 2009:
World Longterm Midterm Shorterm
S&P500 Down Up Neutral
DJI Down Up Neutral
NasdaqComp Neutral Up Up (+)
Nikkei 225 Neutral Up Up (+)
Kospi Up Up Neutral
SSECI Up Up Up
HSI Up Up Up (+)
TWII Up Up Neutral
STI Up Up Up (+)
SENSEX Up Up Up (+)
AORD Down Up Neutral
NZX50 Down Up Neutral
FTSE Down Neutral (-) Neutral
DAX Down Neutral (-) Neutral
Bovespa Up Up Neutral

East Asian markets are generally up, Europe are down. For the US, Nasdaq is up while NYSE is down. Looking at the S&P500 chart, I think that some major movement will be made soon. The daily EMA are converging again, a sign that bulls and bears are of equal strength. This fight should be resolved either this coming week or next one. S&P500 is still trying to break the downtrend line drawn from May 2008 to today. Weekly chart still suggest the break to the upside. But...read my other USD analysis.

S&P 500 Daily Chart

Friday, June 26, 2009

Weekly Summary

KLCI Daily Chart

What a week. Almost 80 points of down and up movement for the week. Daily chart has gone back to moving up but I'm still hoping that it can built a base around 1050 so that it can propel higher. If it continues up without a base building, then it will not go far.

The summary for various sectors is generally bullish:
Malaysia Longterm Midterm Shorterm
KLCI Up Up Up (+)
Finance Up Up Up (+)
Construction Up Up Neutral
Plantation Up Up Up (+)
Property Up Up Neutral
FBM Mesdaq Up Up Neutral
FBM 2nd Board Up Up Neutral

I did not enter any trade. Still holding my previous positions.

Thursday, June 25, 2009

Buffett Interview with Fox Business

Part 1 of 2: Buffett On Economy & Inflation


Part 2 of 2: Buffett On Unemployment & Obama

Tuesday, June 23, 2009

KLCI Chart

KLCI Daily Chart

KLCI is still moving within the boundary where I consider a normal correction within a bull. It could bounce up from here and then come back down to test the trend line. Hopefully, it can build a base around this region. I can hear the bears are becoming vocal again. I believe that it is too early to being bearish.

International Reserves of BNM

A dip in BNM reserves. Don't panic! According to BNM, this is due to someone paying back his IOU (a very large amount indeed).

Charting Green Shoots — Has A Bottom Been Hit?

I am a student of Daryl Guppy (more like a self-taught student), so it feels nice when sifu has the same opinion as mine. Read his analysis Charting Green Shoots — Has A Bottom Been Hit?

Monday, June 22, 2009

Put Warrants

HwangDBS going to offer put warrants in August 2009?! This is good news to warrant player like me. I hope that the issuer can speed things up. Read the complete news here.


Sunday, June 21, 2009

Don't Waste Your Food

I have a habit of posting articles that support my investment believes. Agriculture is one of them. Did you read June's issue of National Geographic? World grain supply is at new low. With so much mouth to feed (human and animals), the land just cannot keep up. With the financial crisis, farmers cannot get the loan to buy fertilizer. With global warming, weather becomes unpredictable. This is all a recipe for food shortages: Global starvation imminent as US faces crop failure.

You can still see this as a disaster or take the opportunity to invest in agriculture ETF.

Saturday, June 20, 2009

Ramunia

To Josh:

Longterm Midterm Shorterm
Ramunia Down Up Neutral
Ramunia-WA Down Up Neutral

Ramunia resistance at 0.70. Still in a downtrend. Ramunia-WA is trading at a premium of 56.64%.

I will definitely not touch Ramunia-WA. At current level, I will not buy Ramunia.

World Market

Worldwide market correction except China.

World Longterm Midterm Shorterm
S&P500 Down Up Neutral (-)
DJI Down Up Neutral (-)
NasdaqComp Neutral Up Neutral (-)
Nikkei 225 Neutral Up Neutral (-)
Kospi Up Up Neutral (-)
SSECI Up Up Up
HSI Up Up Neutral (-)
TWII Up Up Neutral
STI Up Up Neutral (-)
SENSEX Up Up Neutral (-)
AORD Down (-) Up Neutral (-)
FTSE Down Up Neutral (-)
DAX Down (-) Up Neutral (-)
Bovespa Up Up Neutral (-)

Failure

Paul Tudor James talked about failure.

Paul Tudor Jones - Failure Speech June 2009

Friday, June 19, 2009

Start of Correction Process

Ya, this is the start of correction for Bursa Malaysia. If the correction is not deep, then I think the base building will take about 1 month. The summary for the various sectors:
Malaysia Longterm Midterm Shorterm
KLCI Up Up Neutral (-)
Finance Up Up Neutral (-)
Construction Up Up Neutral (-)
Plantation Up Up Neutral (-)
Property Up Up Neutral (-)
FBM Mesdaq Up Up Neutral (-)
FBM 2nd Board Up Up Neutral (-)

Fear the Dark Side of China's Lending Surge

According to Andy Xie, cheap money is fueling the commodity speculation.

Red Alert!

SSEC Daily Chart

Daily chart shows that SSEC is now above the April-June channel. If this break is valid, look out for a rampaging China market! A break above 3000 will confirm a rampaging bull in China.

SSEC Weekly Chart
Weekly chart shows that critical resistance is nearby. 3000 is a difficult hurdle to jump over. Weekly RSI almost overbought. So, don't get too excited yet....

SSEC Monthly Chart
Monthly RSI, MACD and Stochastic all are moving up together. Good sign that the possible bull will be strong.
So, watch out on China play. Will it repeat the 2006-2008 period? I doubt so because so many people got burned. Anyhow, pay attention on China listed stock in HKSE especially those that is only listed in HKSE such as China Mobile (0941.HK). Do you remember the euphoria associated with the SSE listing of Petroch in 2007?

Thursday, June 18, 2009

KLCI Chart

KLCI Weekly Chart

4 down days in a row. This is not a good week for the bulls. Are you getting nervous. I'm not yet. If I get nervous, my left eyelid will twitch. No twitching yet. Am I wrong? Only time will tell.

Looking at the KLCI chart, the correction started when KLCI hit the weekly overbought zone. 1st possible support is at the weekly 7EMA line (1040-1050). The next one is the uptrend line starting from March 2009 to current value at around 1020. I prefer if it can find support at 1040 and consolidate to build another base for the next up thrust.

If you look at the monthly chart, 1100 is an intersection of two major trend line. The red resistance line connects the 1993 and 1997 peak while the blue support line connects 1998 and 2003 trough. If KLCI cannot break 1100, then KLCI may visit 800 again. So, good luck everyone.


KLCI Monthly Chart


Warrant Calculator Website

I have set up a Website to promote my warrant calculator. Based on the number of downloads, I think that either not many of you play warrants or there is a better source (free too?) out there somewhere.

Dollar Index

It's time to look at the Dollar Index chart again.

DX Daily Chart

Daily chart shows that DX is making a rising wedge formation. This is a bearish formation. A break under 80 means that USD will continue to slide.

DX Weekly Chart

Weekly chart shows a little bit confusion among the indicators. Anyhow, I believe that the fall is not complete until the RSI hit oversold. No bullish divergence in the chart.

DX Monthly Chart

Monthly chart is painting an ugly picture. USD rebound looks like over and DX looks like going to challenge 70 again and may go below 70 this time. However, if DX somehow manage to hold into this 80 level and towards 90s, then we can see a massive H&S formation that means that DX will go up to challenge the downtrend line at 105.

So, watch out how DX behaves because it may indicate whether the inflation play works out or not.

Wednesday, June 17, 2009

Warrant Calculator

I have written a simple program to compute the premium, percentage premium and simple gearing for the listed warrants in Bursa Malaysia. There are so many warrants now that I find it a chore just to compute using Microsoft Excel. Not only that, getting the correct exchange rate is troublesome. So, I have combined everything into a simple program that allows me to see the basic information.

View 1 shows how it looks like. Here, you can see individual stock with their respective warrants. The premium shown is quoted in the mother stock currency. It tells me whether the warrant can go into the money based on the mother stock chart or how expensive is it. If I think that the mother stock can make a move that is greater than the premium, then I will not hesistate to buy the warrant. The percentage premium is more as a guide not to buy too expensive warrants. The shorter the lifetime of the warrant, the smaller the percentage premium should be. The simple gearing is just a rough guide on how leverage is your warrant. I don't base my buying information based on the gearing.


View 1

View 2 gives an overview of the warrants so that you can compare them. You can list them based on categories (i.e. Hong Kong, USA etc) or list them all. I recommend that you use View 2 to search for "interesting" warrants while View 1 for monitoring of your favorite warrants.



The prices shown are delayed. It is grabbed from publicly available source. The database contains almost all listed warrants (currently 169) in Bursa Malaysia (i.e. Hong Kong, USA, Index and Malaysia) except the exotic type (i.e. OSK Big-20) and the Japan warrant (i.e. Toyota). You can download a sample of my program here.

If you think that the program is beneficial to your program, then you can buy a full version from me (I have invested many manhours in the program). I hope that you will not make multiple copies of my program without paying as I need some motivation to continue maintaining the database. It is a pain in the ass to maintain the database as the information is scattered across Bursa Malaysia website and the one provided by them is not entirely correct.

So, give it a try and tell me about it.

Monday, June 15, 2009

Sovereign Fund And Commodity Investments

It seems that sovereign funds are also joining the commodity play. I think that with so much money in their pocket, governments can buy up large quantity of basic materials for their future demands. Those without money to buy will view this action as hoarding. The result of hoarding is that it can cause prices to spike up. Sovereign funds that have announce their commodity investment strategy are:
The billion dollar question is how much money are they allocating for commodities?

Sunday, June 14, 2009

Energy

I came across these videos from another blog. It is a series of crash course videos. I highly recommend that you go through it. What it says applies to Malaysia. It is now time to manage our limited oil resource. Our lifestyle and economy will be different without oil. I write down the key points that were given in the video to prevent the "rightside-in-leftside-out" syndrome. 

Crash Course Chapter 17a: Peak Oil



Key Fact #1: Global oil discoveries peaked in 1964.
Key Fact #2: Recent production is flat while oil prices are up.
Key Fact #3: The US imports oil equivalent in energy to 750 nuclear power plants.

Key Concept #9: Peak oil is a well defined process.
Key Concept #10: The amount of work that oil performs for you is equivalent to having hundreds of slaves.
Key Concept #11: Oil is a magic substance, finite in supply, but of unlimited importance.
Key Concept #12: Oil exports being hit two ways; by rising demand and declining production.


Crash Course Chapter 17b: Energy Budgeting


Key Concept #13: The price of energy is irrelevant. Net energy is everything.
Key Concept #14: Social complexity relies on surplus energy.


Crash Course Chapter 17c: Energy and the Economy



Prediction #1: Status quo will be preserved at all costs.
Prediction #2: Hyperinflation will result. 
Prediction #3: Standards of living will decline.

Saturday, June 13, 2009

World Market

N225 Weekly Chart

Nikkei 225: Next resistance at around 10500. Weekly RSI indicates that it will challenge this resistance.

SSEC Weekly Chart

SSEC: Moving up within a well defined uptrend channel. Next possible resistance is at 3000.


HSI Weekly Chart

HSI: Moving within an uptrend channel. Weekly RSI indicates that it can still move up further. If it does, the next horizontal resistance is at around 21,000.


FTSE Weekly Chart

FTSE: Making a rising flag. Stalemate between the bulls and the bears.


S&P 500 Weekly Chart

S&P 500: Low volume break of the immediate downtrend line. Next resistance line is at around 960. If it can clear this, then the next resistance will be at 1150!

The whole summary for the markets that I'm tracking:
World Longterm Midterm Shorterm
S&P500 Down Up Up
DJI Down Up Up
NasdaqComp Neutral Up Up
Nikkei 225 Neutral Up Up
Kospi Up Up Up (+)
SSECI Up Up Up
HSI Up Up Up
TWII Up Up Neutral
STI Up Up Up
SENSEX Up Up Up
AORD Neutral (+) Up Up
FTSE Down Up Up
DAX Neutral Up Up
Bovespa Up Up Up

You can see that the bulls are in charge. How long will this last?

Friday, June 12, 2009

Malaysian Stock Statistic

One Year Statistic

How hot is the market? I get more visitors nowadays. You guys must be looking for buy ideas. Maybe it is because I have more things to write. A check with Google Trends shows that it is not that hot yet. The peak coincide with the stock market peak in January 2008 while the trough coincide with the gloomy feeling in January 2009.


Google Trend for the Search Phrase "Malaysia Stock"

Wellcal

Wellcal Weekly Chart

I like the weekly chart. Broke out of downtrend. Consolidate at a higher base and now moving up again. A close above 1.10 will confirm that it will challenge the other downtrend line.

Disclosure: I'm long in Wellcal.

Weekly Analysis

KLCI Weekly Chart

Look at that KLCI weekly chart, am I imagining things or is that a V-shape that I'm seeing? This so call bounce is still heading up! As fast as it went down, as fast as it goes up. This week, all useless penny shares are up. This sure gives another red flag. This week, I'm have taken a hit with AirAsia CW. Ouch! That is surely painful. At the beginning of this rally, I have loaded up with plantations CW. Unfortunately, plantations are not moving up much. I have zero exposure to finance, no domestic O&G, almost no construction and very light on penny shares. I guess, I'm not enjoying much of this rally. But performance wise, I think still ok lor.

Malaysia Longterm Midterm Shorterm
KLCI Up Up Up
Finance Up Up Up
Construction Up Up Up
Plantation Up Up Up
Property Up Up Up
Mesdaq Up Up Up
2nd Board Up Up Up


Looking at the various sectors for Malayisa, everything is very bullish. About 50% of the counters is on bull mode based on weekly charts. See the summary of the chart below.

Thursday, June 11, 2009

So Cheap....Buy Buy Buy

I came across this Macro Man blog. He talks about China's import of coal, copper, iron ore and crude oil. You should look at the graphs. The import of these natural resources has spike up a lot at the end of 2008. It seems that commodities were on cheap sale and China took the opportunity to buy buy buy. No wonder ships are filling up at Chinese harbour to unload its cargo. No wonder bulk ship rate has a big spike. 

Tuesday, June 09, 2009

HSBC, IOICorp and Engtex

HSBC Daily Chart

HSBC is not moving as I expected. I guess it needs more time for base building. I have no choice but to cut my losses in the CW.


IOICorp Daily Chart

IOICorp is giving too many black candles. The upmove corresponds with low volume. If it is going to go up again, then it must build up another base at around 4.50. I sold off half of my CW position and hopefully the other half is not threatened.

Engtex Weekly Chart

Engtex looks interesting. The movement looks nice on the weekly chart. Can it break the downtrend line? Weekly RSI says there is a chance. I do hope so as I'm already long in it.

Donation

If you like me or like what I wrote and feel generous, then please take a few minutes of your time to donate. The donation button can be found on the top-left corner (just under the blog title) of this blog. I put the default currency as EUR because I'm so scared of USD going down further. I prefer foreign currency because I am building my foreign reserves too :p

Thank you in advance for any donations.

AdSense

I'm trying this AdSense thing. I'm a little bit short of cash as my normal job is not paying me enough and my investment is not generating the profit as much and as fast that I want.  The problem that I face is that my capital (i.e. trading money) is small (way way smaller than Uncle Sam). Anyhow, I hope that the advertisement will not irritate you people. If possible, please help a little bit lar. The terms says that I need to wait for upto 48 hours for them to approve. I hope that the checker finds this blog interesting.

I just wonder how much can I make? Anyway, a few things that I will do when they approve my account:
1. Write more technical analysis.
2. Compile more interesting fundamental news.

Everything should come with more words per blog entry. 


Monday, June 08, 2009

Crude Oil

Where will the price of oil go? World economy is still falling, a bit less bad but the price of crude oil goes up. Doesn't seem logic but that is what we are seeing.

Crude Oil Daily Chart

Look at the daily chart, I'm really bullish because I think that the price has broken out of a channel trading. The next price action that I'm looking for is to see the price correct and still able to close above the upper channel line (resistance becomes support theory). If that happens, you can surely see higher crude price. If the 1st scenario doesn't happen, then look for thee next support that will be around 55.00. 

Crude Oil Weekly Chart

Weekly chart says that the price is testing the uptrend line that was broken November 2008. If it can go higher, then expect the next target to be USD80.00. The RSI value also tells me that the price still has leg to run.

Remember, a finite resource can only last a finite time. When everyone realizes that there aren't more left, then we should start to kill each other to get it! I think that before we start killing each other for the oil, it should go up until it becomes a luxury good.


Saturday, June 06, 2009

World Market

US market is inching up a little bit each day. If you do pay attention to that market, you will notice that they also have last minute push up/down. This makes the bulls and the bears go crazy!

The summary for world markets:

World Longterm Midterm Shorterm
S&P500 Down Up Up
DJI Down Up Up
NasdaqComp Neutral (+) Up Up
Nikkei 225 Neutral (+) Up Up
Kospi Up Up Neutral
SSECI Up Up Up (+)
HSI Up Up Up
TWII Up Up Neutral (-)
STI Up Up Up
SENSEX Up Up Up
AORD Down Up Up
FTSE Down Up Up
DAX Neutral (+) Up Up
Bovespa Up Up Up

You can see that the developed markets are lagging the emerging markets. I think that we should load up on the emerging markets in any future correction. Investing in the USA will be a challenge since the profit from equity must be greater than the loss due to USD depreciation.

World wide equity sell off did not happen in May. Instead, it is the US treasury that sold off! You can see that I'm tracking bond, forex, commodity and equity markets worldwide. I'm trying to figure out where does the capital flow around the world. By tracking all possible markets, I believe that I can find some early clues to new investment themes.

By the way, keep an eye on the swine flu. WHO is going to declare it as pandemic without causing any panic. Will this break the uptrend?

International Reserves of BNM


MYR (left axis)/USD (right axis) has increased as compared to 2 weeks ago.

Friday, June 05, 2009

KLCI Weekly Review

KLCI Weekly Chart

I don't know what to say. This is really bullish. However, KLCI has reached the weekly overbought zone. Any corrections, look at support at around 1020. Finance, plantation and Mesdaq is not yet overbought based on the weekly chart. Property is the most overbought while the rest are already overbought. All sectors are now bullish!

Malaysia Longterm Midterm Shorterm
KLCI Up Up Up
Finance Up Up Up (+)
Construction Up Up Up (+)
Plantation Up Up Up (+)
Property Up Up Up
Mesdaq Up Up Up
2nd Board Up Up Up