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Saturday, September 27, 2008

Black September/October?

The stock market is on the verge of going off a cliff. It all rest on that USD700 billion bailout. Yes or no? Will it work?

Looking at our market:
Malaysia Longterm Midterm Shorterm
KLCI Down Down Down
Finance Down Down Down
Construction Down Down Down
Plantation Down Down Down
Property Down Down Down
Mesdaq Down Down Down
2nd Board Down Down Down

For selected markets around the world:
World Longterm Midterm Shorterm
S&P500 Down Down Down
DJI Down Down Down
NasdaqComp Down Down Down
Nikkei 225 Down Down Down
Kospi Down Down Neutral (+)
SSECI Down Down Neutral (+)
HSI Down Down Down
TWII Down Down Down
STI Down Down Down
SENSEX Down Down Down
FTSE Down Down Down
DAX Down Down Down

If want to know how did it all happened, this talk that was conducted at Princeton may help your understanding.

Sunday, September 21, 2008

Out of touch, out of fear

Oh boy. I was disconnected from the Internet when all these things happened. Why such volatility? Well, if you have traded US options, you will know that around expiration week, things can get really wild. Sept 19 was the expiration date for the Sept options. Things really got wild. Didn't really able to profit anything. Anyway, the charts are still down.
Malaysia Longterm Midterm Shorterm
KLCI Down Down Down
Finance Down Down Down
Construction Down Down Down
Plantation Down Down Down
Property Down Down Down
Mesdaq Down Down Down
2nd Board Down Down Down

If you know candlestick analysis, then you can see a very long shadow for the KLCI chart. This indicates an extreme condition and may signal market reversal. Lets wait and see what happens next week.

World Longterm Midterm Shorterm
S&P500 Down Down Down
DJI Down Down Down
NasdaqComp Down Down Down
Nikkei 225 Down Down Down
Kospi Down Down Down (-)
SSECI Down Down Down
HSI Down Down Down
TWII Down Down Down
STI Down Down Down
SENSEX Down Down Down
FTSE Down Down Down
DAX Down Down Down

If you do momentum analysis, you can detect some bullish divergence in the chart. This indicates that the sell down is getting weaker.

I think that if a bull is to emerge from this, it still requires many months to establish a base. My strategy is to let the contratrians do the work of creating that base first. If they are successful, then of course I'll join them. If they fail, then I'll just watch what a fool they are.

Saturday, September 13, 2008

Sector and World Indexes (20080912)

Everything is still pointing down.
Malaysia Longterm Midterm Shorterm
KLCI Down Down Down
Finance Down Down Down (-)
Construction Down Down Down
Plantation Down Down Down
Property Down Down Down
Mesdaq Down Down Down
2nd Board Down Down Down

World Longterm Midterm Shorterm
S&P500 Down Down Down
DJI Down Down Down
NasdaqComp Down Down Down
Nikkei 225 Down Down Down
Kospi Down Down Neutral (+)
SSECI Down Down Down
HSI Down Down Down
TWII Down Down Down
STI Down Down Down
SENSEX Down Down (-) Down (-)
FTSE Down Down Down
DAX Down Down Down

Mortgage Crisis Blues


Saturday, September 06, 2008

World Market (20080905)

My interpretation for selected world market. Generally turning down again. Will we have a major crash somewhere between September and October?
World Longterm Midterm Shorterm
S&P500 Down Down Down (-)
DJI Down Down Down (-)
NasdaqComp Down Down (-) Down (-)
Nikkei 225 Down Down Down (-)
Kospi Down Down Down
SSECI Down Down Down
HSI Down Down Down (-)
TWII Down Down Down
STI Down Down Down
SENSEX Down Neutral Neutral
FTSE Down Down (-) Down (-)
DAX Down Down Down (-)

Friday, September 05, 2008

Sector Indexes (20080905)

Things have turned back to worse.
Malaysia Longterm Midterm Shorterm
KLCI Down Down Down (-)
Finance Down Down Neutral
Construction Down Down Down
Plantation Down Down Down (-)
Property Down Down Down (-)
Mesdaq Down Down Down
2nd Board Down Down Down

Where is the bottom?


HSI Monthly Chart

The last uptrend line that I managed to draw has been broken for HSI. Next possible support is at 18,000.


SSECI Monthly Chart

For SSECI, it is currently at a supposed support level. Next one maybe at 1,700. I pity those Chinese investors. 

KLCI Monthly Chart

For KLCI, we are going to test the last uptrend line soon. If other exchanges are breaking every possible uptrend support, what are our chances?


Monday, September 01, 2008

Sector Indexes (20080829)

Is it going to be only a one day push up? My interpretation for selected sector indexes:
Malaysia Longterm Midterm Shorterm
KLCI Down Down Neutral (+)
Finance Down Down Neutral (+)
Construction Down Down Down
Plantation Down Down Neutral (+)
Property Down Down Neutral (+)
Mesdaq Down Down Down
2nd Board Down Down Down

For the rest of the world:
World Longterm Midterm Shorterm
S&P500 Down Down Neutral
DJI Down Down Neutral
NasdaqComp Down Neutral Neutral
Nikkei 225 Down Down Neutral (+)
Kospi Down Down Down
SSECI Down Down Down
HSI Down Down Neutral (+)
TWII Down Down Down
STI Down Down Down
SENSEX Down Neutral Neutral
FTSE Down Neutral (+) Up (+)
DAX Down Down Neutral (+)