Sunday, January 22, 2006

End Of CNY Rally?

Oh boy, Nikkei drop like hell, now US also. Oil is going to challenge it's old time high. The market is still weak. Now maybe it will get weaker. I assume everyone has earned their angpow.

I have gotten out of Iris and Flonic already.

If the market gets any weaker, I have to get out.

Shares that I have:
Huatlai-WA: The is weak counter. Cannot run as other chickens.
OSK-WA: Still cannot break the downtrend line. Play over?
nscom: Technically ok but not superb. I'm going to get out of this counter.
Liondiv: Still holding. Looks good.
Oilcorp: Very erratic behaviour but still going up.
Ranhill: Any higher?

Maybe oil counters will rally if oil goes higher. I don't know. Lets see what Mr. Market has to say.

Saturday, January 14, 2006

Bursa Malaysia's Blogging & Forums

There is an article in Bizweek about the use of Internet for trading. The one that interest me is the proliferation of discussion forums and blogs.

Why do I start this blog? Well, I have no idea at all. I guess it was the “in” thing to have a blog. I wanted to stay in touch with the Internet and everywhere you can find people blogging about war, life, sex etc. So I guess that I just joined in the bandwagon.

This is never a serious blog, it is just for fun to past my time and to share some of my thoughts. I seldom write regularly. Only when I feel like it, then only I post something. I try to avoid promoting any counters because if I talked about certain counters, then I will be deemed to be promoting it. This is against the law as the SC is concern, as I have no investment credentials. I don’t want to get into trouble with the authorities. So, anyone that reads this, do your own homework. As I said before: Trust no one! Not even me!

Now what about forums? Most topics are nonsense and do not have any element of discussion at all. One forum even has become a war zone with name calling and flaming among the forummers.

The lack of discussion in our forums may due to the way we are brought up. From primary to university, our institution only teaches us to accept the truth. We are not taught the art of thinking. So we seldom discuss and explore other possibilities. And if we have any ideas, we just keep quiet because we are not use to voicing up.

By the way, do not think that the Internet allows you to post anonymously. It may seem that no one knows you but if the authorities wanted to catch you, it can be easily done. How? Through IP and MAC address. Yes, we do leave digital trails when we use the Internet. One possible way to overcome this is to use an “anonymous proxy” but theoretically it is still possible to trace you with a little bit more effort and determination.

Law of Probability

The number one rule for any trader is "Cut your losses fast, let you profits run". I didn't really grasp this concept until recently. I was implementing this rule half-heartedly. But after reading Market Wizards: Interviews With Top Traders by Jack D. Schwager, I finally understand the logic behind this rule.

The idea of this rule is due to the law of probability. Let me try to explain here:

Let’s say the market is fair, you have a 50-50 chance of winning (ignoring brokerage). That means if you make 10 trades, you win 5 and lose 5. Let’s say you limit your losses to 10% of your invested capital and your average profit is 20% of your invested capital. If you use RM1,000.00 for every trade, then your losses will be RM500.00 and your winners will be RM1,000.00. That means you still earn RM500.00!

So do you see the idea behind this rule? Good traders know that it is okay to make a mistake. The important thing is to get out of the mistake as quick as possible. Novice traders always think that to earn from the market, you must always be right and cannot make any mistakes. But to be right always will cost you dearly!

So now I have solve my problem of cutting losses. If I don’t like the way the stock is moving, I will get out first and restrategize later. The important thing is to protect my capital.

Concerning the second part, I think I may have an answer to that. To the “anonymous” user that suggested that I should not be trading, well, I’m going to prove to you that I can make it to the big league!

Thursday, January 12, 2006

Ride Ur Winners!

Arrrggggghhhhh! One simple rule and I cannot stick to it!

Arrrgggghhhhh! Instead of earning 30% profit, I'm only taking back 10%.

Must make this rule a part of myself. Cannot break it, sit tight, be patience.

P.S. I'm talking about Media-WA.

Sunday, January 08, 2006

CNY Radar

I spent the whole weekend looking at charts. Looking at all the blue chips, their charts are not good at all. The prices are all high. With so-so earnings, how high can they go?

Anyhow, I think this CNY rally is more on the speculative counters.

Intersting counters are Tcubes, Impress, Vitrox, Nextnat, Oilcorp, BSLCorp.

Trying to breakout of downtrend channel are Dialog, Muhibah, LCTH, Cworks, Opensys, Gtronic, AirAsia.

Nothing good in banking, wood, auto, construction, property, steel and water counters.

Hmm....need to find out how to program Metastock to do auto scanning of my criterias. Bursa has too many counters and most of them are craps!

I am considering very seriously of investing overseas especially SGX and Nasdaq. Look at Google, from USD100 to USD450. Where can you get this in Malaysia? I guess too much protection makes our companies unable to compete globally. Without global market, how far can you grow in a small country like us?

Thursday, January 05, 2006

CNY Rally?

I think that the CNY rally is in progress. Many counters have flashed the buy signal.

Currently I'm rebalancing my portfolio, cutting down stakes that are too high in certain counters and slow movers. I sold out Kurasia as it is too slow for my style.

New buy counters are Media-Wa, Mikro (not good), Nscom and Iris. Mikro turns out to be a bad choice.

I'm still holding Flonic (a normal correction or end of the road?)

Carotec seems to be interesting, is it in the progress of the next up wave (wave 3)? RHB consolidation seems to have ended.

I'm also monitoring GHLSys and Scicom. AMMB seems to have bottom out also.

Sapcres and Jaks are all just rebounding since the monthly chart is too bad. Waiting for the correction to make the next decision. However, Dialog looks set to breakout from the downtrend channel.

CPO seems to be making new high. The breakdown that I predicted didn't happened. Currently monitoring plantations counters.