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Tuesday, December 29, 2009

New blogs

I'm starting 2 new blogs:
  1. Trading In HKEX
  2. Trading In SGX

The names of the blog explained it all. Yes, finally I managed to open an account to trade in these 2 markets. I will only concentrate on the warrants that are listed in these markets. My decision to use new URL is to separate the counters as most of you all may not want to read trading ideas for other markets.

I have not written anything yet in the new blogs. Currently, I am modifying my Bursa Malaysia Warrant Calculator to include the warrant database for those 2 exchanges. The new database will be available free-of-charge for those that bought calculator software.

The past week, I was busy in updating my EOD database for SGX, HKEX, SSE and SZE market. Getting the list of listed counters took some Googling. Fortunately, I was able to find it. With the list of counters, I wrote my own program to download it from Yahoo. You may think that I am a cheapskate. You must know, I'm running on a shoe-string budget. Every cents saved will be used for my speculative activities.

Anyhow, if you want to follow my new blogs, you will need to subscribe to it. That's all.

Monday, December 28, 2009

KLCI Buy Signal

KLCI Daily Chart

Looks like KLCI has given a buy signal with a possible challenge of 1290.

New Call Warrants

6 new call warrants from CIMB will be listed on 29 Dec 2009:
New Warrants Expiration Type Ex Price Ratio
CAPLAND-C2 15/04/2011 Call SGD 4.1000 12 : 1
WILMAR-C3 15/04/2011 Call SGD 6.0000 25 : 1
TANJONG-CA 15/04/2011 Call MYR 15.0000 20 : 1
HLBANK-CA 15/04/2011 Call MYR 8.0000 8 : 1
GAMUDA-CK 15/04/2011 Call MYR 2.5500 3 : 1
CHLIFE-C6 15/04/2011 Call HKD 39.5000 20 : 1

I wonder why CIMB still refused to issue any put warrants. Any insider stories?

Anyhow, you can get this update done for you automatically by using my Bursa Malaysia Warrant Calculator.

Sunday, December 27, 2009

Commodity Summary

Correction in gold is still not yet over. Crude oil has given a buy signal. Will it close above 80 next week? CPO and rough rice uptrend seems to be taking a rest. I think that the US dollar rebound should come to an end by this coming week. If that is the case, then we should see the rally in commodities to resume soon.

Commodity Monthly Weekly Daily
Gold Up Neutral (-) Neutral
Crude Oil Up Up (+) Up (+)
Crude Palm Oil Up Up Neutral (-)
Rough Rice Up Up Neutral (-)

World Weekly Summary

Most markets kind of had a Christmas rally. I'm expecting a correction for the US market, however, it continues to push higher. Maybe the power of printing money will overcome all obstacles continuing losses in the housing market. Well, this is why you need more than fundamental analysis to win in the market. Your theory may be right, but when your timing is wrong, you will still lose money.

World Monthly Weekly Daily Note
S&P500 Up Up Up (+) R=1.12k, S=1.01k
DJI Up Up Up (+) R=11k.
NasdaqComp Up Up Up R=2.18k
Nikkei 225 Neutral Up Up Next R=11k
Kospi Up Up Up R=1.9k.
SSECI Up Neutral (-) Neutral R=3.5k. S=2.6k. Finding base.
HSI Up Neutral Down R=23.5k, S=20k.
TWII Up Up Up (+) R=7.9k. S=7k
STI Up Up Up R=2.8k. S-2.52k
JKSE Up Up Neutral (-) R=2.5k. S=2.3k
SENSEX Up Up Up (+) R=17.6k
AORD Up Up (+) Up (+) R=4.9k
NZX50 Up Up Up (+) R=3.2k
FTSE Up Up Up (+) R=5.4k
DAX Up Up Up R=6.15k
RTSI Up Up Up R=1.5k
Bovespa Up Up Neutral R=66k

Bursa Malaysia Weekly Summary

Market is still range bound with downside bias. There is still no strong uptrend or downtrend movement.

Malaysia Monthly Weekly Daily Note
FBM KLCI Up Up Neutral (-) R=1.3k, S=1.2k.
Finance Up Up Neutral (-) R=11k, S=9.5k.
Construction Up Neutral Down (-) R=250, S=220. Serious correction
Plantation Up Up Neutral (-) R=6.4k, S=5.8k.
Property Up Neutral Neutral (+) R=820, S=760. Correction

Wednesday, December 23, 2009

International Reserves of BNM

Date MYR (billion) USD (billion)
30-Nov-09 334.9 96.1
15-Dec-09 335.1 96.2

Source.

Tuesday, December 22, 2009

6 New Call Warrants

6 new call warrants will be listed on 22/12/2009. All from CIMB:
New Warrants Expiration Type Ex Price Ratio
SPSETIA-CB 31/03/2011 Call MYR 3.5000 4 : 1
PETROCH-CB 31/03/2011 Call HKD 9.0000 8 : 1
CMA-C1 31/03/2011 Call SGD 2.4000 8 : 1
ICBC-CA 31/03/2011 Call HKD 6.6000 4 : 1
HKEX-CD 31/03/2011 Call HKD 130.0000 100 : 1
CNOOC-C6 31/03/2011 Call HKD 11.3000 10 : 1

Remember, you can purchase my Bursa Malaysia Warrant Calculator if you are too lazy to maintain the warrant database.

Monday, December 21, 2009

World Weekly Summary

Still a directionless trading environment.

World Monthly Weekly Daily Note
S&P500 Up Up Neutral (-) R=1.12k, S=1.01k
DJI Up Up Neutral (-) R=11k.
NasdaqComp Up Up Up R=2.18k
Nikkei 225 Neutral Up (+) Up (+) Next R=11k
Kospi Up Up Up R=1.9k.
SSECI Up Up Neutral R=3.5k. S=2.6k. Finding base.
HSI Up Neutral (-) Down (-) R=23.5k, S=20k.
TWII Up Up Neutral (-) R=7.9k. S=7k
STI Up Up Up R=2.8k. S-2.52k
JKSE Up Up Up R=2.5k. S=2.3k
SENSEX Up Up Neutral (-) R=17.6k
AORD Up Neutral Down R=4.9k
NZX50 Up Up (+) Neutral (+) R=3.2k
FTSE Up Up Neutral R=5.4k
DAX Up Up Up R=6.15k
RTSI Up Up Up (+) R=1.5k
Bovespa Up Up Neutral (-) R=66k

Friday, December 18, 2009

Bursa Malaysia Weekly Summary

The market is still going nowhere. If I want to add positions, then I'll look into plantation sector.

Malaysia Monthly Weekly Daily Note
FBM KLCI Up Up Up (+) R=1.3k, S=1.2k.
Finance Up Up Up (+) R=11k, S=9.5k.
Construction Up Neutral Neutral (+) R=250, S=220. Serious correction
Plantation Up Up Up (+) R=6.4k, S=5.8k.
Property Up Neutral Down R=820, S=760. Correction

Wednesday, December 16, 2009

Balance Budget

2010 budget passed with razor thin majority of 65-63?

I came across this graph that shows the budget as a percentage of the GDP.



We can see that we are in a bad situation (far right of the graph). In my opinion, this shows that our economy is badly managed. With oil money, we still manage to do badly. Where has the money gone to?

In 2 more years (or less), we shall be going to the polls. I know what I need to do. A balanced budget can only be achieved when we efficiently make use of our limited money. That means no corruption, no over paying and no favoritism.

If we continue this destructive path, we shall saddle our children with a debt that they cannot pay. You need to decide on what action you are going to take now because the consequence of making the wrong choice will take many generations to correct.

Monday, December 14, 2009

Weekly Commodity Summary

USD rebounds, crude oil and gold goes down. The DX futures chart indicate that the rebound is not strong, therefore, I expect that gold and crude oil should stop sliding ...maybe by this week.

One interesting thing in the commodity world is that agriculture commodity is strong even though USD goes up.

Commodity Monthly Weekly Daily
Gold Up Up Neutral (-)
Crude Oil Up Neutral (-) Down
Crude Palm Oil Up Up Up
Rough Rice Up Up Up

Sunday, December 13, 2009

World Weekly Summary

Up down up down up down. Still no clear trend. Tough to make money except for the day traders. The only thing for me to do is to wait.

World Monthly Weekly Daily Note
S&P500 Up Up Up R=1.12k, S=1.01k
DJI Up Up Up (+) R=11k.
NasdaqComp Up Up Up R=2.18k
Nikkei 225 Neutral Neutral (+) Neutral Next R=11k
Kospi Up Up (+) Up (+) R=1.9k.
SSECI Up Up Neutral (-) R=3.5k. S=2.6k. Finding base.
HSI Up Up Neutral (-) R=23.5k, S=20k.
TWII Up Up Up R=7.9k. S=7k
STI Up Up Up R=2.8k. S-2.52k
JKSE Up Up Up R=2.5k. S=2.3k
SENSEX Up Up Up R=17.6k
AORD Up Neutral (-) Down (-) R=4.9k
NZX50 Up Neutral Down (-) R=3.2k
FTSE Up Up Neutral (-) R=5.4k
DAX Up Up Up R=6.15k
RTSI Up Up Neutral R=1.5k
Bovespa Up Up Up R=66k

Friday, December 11, 2009

Bursa Malaysia Weekly Summary

I must admit that none of my trade ideas are working currently. Bullish don't work, bearish also don't work. The market is not going anywhere.

Malaysia Monthly Weekly Daily Note
FBM KLCI Up Up Neutral (-) R=1.3k, S=1.2k.
Finance Up Up Neutral R=11k, S=9.5k.
Construction Up Neutral Down R=250, S=220. Serious correction
Plantation Up Up Neutral (-) R=6.4k, S=5.8k.
Property Up Neutral Down R=820, S=760. Correction

New Call Warrants

6 new call warrants from CIMB was listed on 11 Dec 2009:
New Warrants Expiration Type Ex Price Ratio
BJCORP-CA 28/02/2011 Call MYR 1.1500 2 : 1
WCT-CA 28/02/2011 Call MYR 2.4000 3 : 1
UEMLAND-CA 28/02/2011 Call MYR 1.5000 3 : 1
PARKSON-CA 28/02/2011 Call MYR 5.2500 6 : 1
BJTOTO-CF 28/02/2011 Call MYR 4.0000 3 : 1
AFFIN-CA 28/02/2011 Call MYR 2.4500 3 : 1

Meanwhile, KIBB will issue 4 new call warrants that will be listed on 14 Dec 2009:
New Warrants Expiration Type Ex Price Ratio
IJM-CD 10/12/2010 Call MYR 4.4000 5 : 1
TENAGA-CO 10/12/2010 Call MYR 8.0200 7 : 1
IOICORP-CN 10/12/2010 Call MYR 5.2800 5 : 1
AXIATA-CE 10/12/2010 Call MYR 3.0600 4 : 1

Tuesday, December 08, 2009

International Reserves of BNM

Date MYR (billion) USD (billion)
13-Nov-09 334.8 96.1
30-Nov-09 334.9 96.1

Source.

Monday, December 07, 2009

KNM

KNM Daily Chart

The last time that I blogged about this counter, I was looking into going long. However, the buy signal did not work out. Now, this counter has given a sell signal.

Disclosure: Short.

Sunday, December 06, 2009

Weekly Commodity Summary

Commodity Monthly Weekly Daily
Gold Up Up Up
Crude Oil Up Up Down
Crude Palm Oil Up (+) Up Up
Rough Rice Up Up Up

Strong correction for gold last Friday, however, the trend is still up. Only crude oil is the weakest. The USD has rebounded strongly. I'm still bearish on USD and bullish on commodities.

World Weekly Summary

SSECI Monthly Chart

SSECI: looks like it is going to challenge 3500.

Looking at the various world markets:
World Monthly Weekly Daily Note
S&P500 Up Up Up (+) R=1.12k, S=1.01k
DJI Up Up Neutral (-) R=11k.
NasdaqComp Up Up Up (+) R=2.18k
Nikkei 225 Neutral Down Neutral (+) Next R=11k
Kospi Up Neutral Neutral (+) R=1.9k.
SSECI Up Up Up (+) R=3.5k. S=2.6k. Finding base.
HSI Up Up (+) Up (+) R=23.5k, S=20k.
TWII Up Up Up (+) R=7.9k. S=7k
STI Up Up Up R=2.8k. S-2.52k
JKSE Up Up (+) Up (+) R=2.5k. S=2.3k
SENSEX Up Up Up (+) R=17.6k
AORD Up Up (+) Up (+) R=4.9k
NZX50 Up Neutral Neutral (+) R=3.2k
FTSE Up Up Up (+) R=5.4k
DAX Up Up (+) Up (+) R=6.15k
RTSI Up Up Neutral R=1.5k
Bovespa Up Up Up R=66k

I see that most markets have recovered from the Dubai selldown.

Bursa Malaysia Weekly Summary

FBM KLCI Weekly Chart

Still at around the same place for 7 weeks now. I'm expecting for the big sell, but it is not coming. Looks like the market is frustrating both the bull and the bear.

Malaysia Monthly Weekly Daily Note
FBM KLCI Up Up Up (+) R=1.3k, S=1.2k.
Finance Up Up Neutral R=11k, S=9.5k.
Construction Up Neutral Down R=250, S=220. Serious correction
Plantation Up Up Up R=6.4k, S=5.8k.
Property Up Neutral Down R=820, S=760. Correction

Looking at the various sectors, the strongest is the plantation. I think that if KLCI is going to go up, it will have to rely on the plantation counters for the push.

Wednesday, December 02, 2009