Tuesday, August 30, 2005

At Critical Support 910

The rebound was brief and weak. Everytime the bulls tried to push up, the bears pushed it down. So now we are back at the 910 area. RSI shows that the index is already oversold. No sign of reversal yet, but the chances are getting better for a rebound. No guarantee though.

My performance is not good for last week. My bet on Quest didn't work as well as I like it to. It did manage to shoot up, but quickly fall down back. Now I'm back to square one. Most probably I'll cut my lost.

Other counters which I plan to cut are Plus-CA (the mother is back to bearish) and Sumatec.

If you want to read other's analysis, then I suggest that you read the blacksheeptrading site (

Sunday, August 21, 2005


Looks like the BMCI (KLCI) index is rebounding as shown by the 14-day RSI (where the RSI downtrend channel has been broken). If the uptrend continues, then the next target will be >960 (predicted using Elliot Wave - wave no. 5). Is this the pre-budget rally? The strategy is to sell into this rally as prolong downtrend is expected until Nov-Dec period.

If it is only a small bounce, then 930 will be a resistance and may be the point of continuation of downtrend.

Let's see what will happen next week.

Thursday, August 18, 2005

Dropping arrested, rebounding now?

Market seems to put on the breaks. Maybe rebound from here. Who knows? Technically has reach the 33% Fibonacci retracement level. IF breaks 935 region, then uptrend continues. If turn back at that region, than a downtrend channel has been formed.

Interesting counters:
Quest - Very high buy percentage. Last minute push. Maybe tomorrow more action? Will try to add on position when 0.35 is broken.
Tecfast - I have let go this one last week due to inaction, but looks like it is inching up again. potential.
Plus-CA - Hard to read this one. Maybe rebound more, maybe continue down. Plus needs to close above 3.26 for positive action.
FTEC - Hmmm...still supported by the uptrend channel.
Mptech - Bullish reversal candle. Rebound or change of trend?

Wednesday, August 17, 2005

Market still dropping

Alamak, where is the rebound? Looks like the market is going to drop to 900-910 region. Technically, it is still consolidating because no downtrend channel has been made yet.

My strategy is to bet that the uptrend will continue. If my bet is wrong, then I should cut many losses.

Interesting counters:
Quest - make a bullish reversal with volume but sentiment not good. Should rebound from here kua.
Ftec - supported by the uptrend channel? If so, then next target maybe 0.40 liao.

Temptations (2)

So how do you prevent yourself from being tempted to buy?

Well, the standard way is to plan your trading before the open of the market! Yes, you should write down at what price to buy, targeted price and stopped price before you enter any trade. This will prevent you from following your "feeling". Emotions are bad in trading. When price goes up, you feel "high". When price goes down, you feel "down". We must cut away these type of feelings from our trading. More like cold blooded trading. No emotions, no feelings. Just follow the rules that you have set. Nothing more, nothing else.

So what are the rules? It depends on your personality. If you are old, most probably you will like the fundamental counters that moves up inch by inch. If you are young, most likely you will play those speculative counters. If you are a daredevil, then you will use the buy high, sell higher strategy. We are humans, each of us are different. So find out what type of trader are you. Then apply the right technique that suits you.

Just remember, write down everything you do. Keep a journal of it. At least we can analyse our successes and failures later on. It's okay to make a mistake once. But it is lunatic to keep repeating it.

For me, I'm still searching the right technique that suits me.

Wednesday, August 10, 2005


This is the 2nd time this sort of things happened to me in 2 months. I sold FTEC at 0.305, "thinking" that it will not break the 0.31 resistance. I was very wrong, it break this barrier and zoom pass to 0.35. Imagine the lost profit!?

The first one was with Ramunia when I sold it at 0.87 (which eventually goes to above 1.00 in another 2 days time).

So why? Why do I always sell my winners and ride my losers? Why do I always sell early? What have I done wrong? Have I violated my own rules? More things to wonder....or is it a luck factor?

If anyone is reading this, please tell me the best exit strategy. I still have a lot to learn.

Temptations (Part 1)

Visited Amsterdam during the weekend. Walk around the Red Light District (RLD). It's full of sex sex sex. The prostitute display their goods behind a glass window for you to see wearing only lingerie. You can find young girls to old aunties. They are there to satisfy whatever fantasy that you have. What a temptation.

Playing stocks is also full of temptations. Price goes up, you feel regret because you didn't buy during the low. So you are very tempted to get in. Without thinking much, you got in and "Wham"! The price reverses. Now you feel uneasy. If it goes down some more, you will panic and sold it off. You will ask yourself why you have been trapped? Something to ponder.......

Thursday, August 04, 2005

This is not right!

One day KLCI goes up double digit, then the next day it surrendered most of the gain. Didn't expect that the profit taking is so strong. The candle chart points to more downward pressure. If breaks 940, then it was a false break and we shall be slaughtered.

Nothing is certain in share market. Only probabilities. It is so easy to learn technical analysis. You learn about uptrend, downtrend, resistance, support, ascending formations, MACD, RSI, Stochastic, Elliot wave etc. But when comes the time to implement, it is not straight forward. If your analysis points to one direction and it goes the other way, you will be wondering what has gone wrong with your analysis. From my experience, technical charts don't lie. It is we who lie to ourselves. We always try to interpret the chart to be favourable to our situation. Only experience will minimise this impact.

At the time of writing this, US market shows a large drop. Don't know what will happen when market opens tomorrow, will 940 be breached? Anyhow, I won't be able to see the live action myself as I will be going to Holland for a holiday. Yes, the place and not the other "holland" (in Cantonese).

Turkey Can Fly!

Big funds buy blue chips. Small funds buy peanuts. Why do retailers always goes for penny shares? I think it is due to the good feeling of holding more of less value than less of more value. Or maybe retailers live in fantasy island? Buy 10 cents share, up 1 cent, earn 10% liao! Better than fixed deposit!!! But do the retailers have the power to push the price up? After buying penny shares, we always wait for the "syndicate" to push it up. Sometimes we may be lucky, but most of the time we will go to "Holland".

Today, 2nd liners all fly high. Push push push! After 942 has been broken convincingly, everyone rush in to buy. The fear of buying high and selling low still persist. The trick is not to buy when it is overbought. From my observation, when a share is in the overbought region, the probability of it going up more is not that high. Most probably it will take a rest first to flush out those with no holding power. So do keep the temptation away from yourself. There are still many more counters with better probability for us to hop on.

I have so many counters to monitor. Very kancheong now. But must still try to keep cool. Which counter to average down (so that can get out)? Which counter to take profit? Which counter to hop on? Aiyah, my mind cannot work that fast lah. Just a greenhorn in this share thing.

Today's analysis:
Plus - First time it manage to close at 3.40. RSI shows more room to go up. Maybe target 3.50. So I hopped into Plus-CA. The ex-price is 2.79, which means it should go to 0.70. If I use the triangle breakout computation, then the target will be at 0.65.

FTEC - Just manage to close below the resistance line of 0.31. Hmmm...if break, next target will be 0.38.

Sumatec - Will be challenging 0.745. If break, then target 0.86.

Talam - Debt problem solved? If break 0.66, then next target is 0.86. Is Talam-wa worth the risk?

L&G - Broken the RSI downtrend line. Should be able to break the 0.20-0.21 region.

Wednesday, August 03, 2005

Breaking new high

Seems that my analysis is wrong. Bursa is breaking new high. Both the daily and weekly charts shows that KLCI is overbought. Only blue chips are matching higher. 2nd and 3rd liners all still have no petrol to move. It is very dangerous to chase the price when it is overbought. Your probability of winning is getting less and less (risk increases). If we become emotional, then we may be the fools that buy at the highs (buy high sell low)

We must be patience. Remember, what goes up must comes down. Wait for the price to pullback and then only take a ride for the next trip up.