Tuesday, March 30, 2010

New CIMB Call Warrants

4 new call warrants from CIMB will be listed on 31 Mar 2010:
New Warrants Expiration Type Ex Price Ratio
WASEONG-CA 31/03/2011 Call MYR 2.4000 3 : 1
MAHSING-CA 31/03/2011 Call MYR 1.8000 2 : 1
AIRPORT-CA 31/03/2011 Call MYR 4.6500 5 : 1
RHBCAP-CC 31/03/2011 Call MYR 5.5000 5 : 1

You can get this update if you have my Bursa Malaysia Warrant Calculator. The tool that gives you the edge against other traders!

Sunday, March 28, 2010

World Weekly Summary

It has been some time since I have posted my world weekly summary. It seems that market around the world is still strong:
World Monthly Weekly Daily
S&P500 Up Up Up
DJI Up Up Up
NasdaqComp Up Up Up
Nikkei 225 Up Up Up
Kospi Up Up Up
SSECI Up Neutral Neutral
HSI Up Neutral Neutral (-)
STI Up Up Up
NZX50 Up Up Up
DAX Up Up Up
RTSI Up Up Neutral (-)
Bovespa Up Up Neutral

Bursa Malaysia Weekly Summary

KLCI Weekly Chart

Amazing! Still going up. I guess this is the 1st quarter window dressing. Based on my interpretation, this will not become a strong upward thrust. However, I would like to point out the interesting pattern that is forming for the property sector. Looks like it is at the upper range of a symmetrical triangle pattern. So pay attention to the property counters.

Property Index Weekly Chart

The summary for this week:
Malaysia Monthly Weekly Daily
FBM KLCI Up Up Up (+)
Finance Up Up Up (+)
Construction Up Up Up (+)
Plantation Up Up Up (+)
Property Up Up Up (+)

Friday, March 26, 2010


KNM Daily Chart

Looks like broken support. Panic will set in if it closes below 0.70.

Disclosure: None.

Thursday, March 25, 2010


Dialog Daily Chart

Broken horizontal resistance. Hopefully can stay above and make a parabolic move.

Disclosure: Long.

Tuesday, March 23, 2010

Chneah Hoay 2010

Oh gosh! I totally forgotten about this "chneah hoay" (flame watching ceremony). I have blogged about 2009 prediction where Tua Pek Kong says that the economy was just fair.

How about 2010? Took me sometime to Google for the 2010 report. Based on the flame intensity, Tua Pek Kong says that we should have a fair economy on the 1st and 3rd trimester while the 2nd trimester is good.

So, do you believe in Tua Pek Kong's message?

Monday, March 22, 2010


BJToto Weekly Chart

Looks nice.

Disclosure: Long in CW

ATIC 2010

I attended ATIC 2010 that was held at KLCC from 20-21 Mar, 2010. This convention is geared towards the DIY trader/investor needs and is definitely not for the mutual fund/unit trust investor. The sessions can be generally divided into 4 categories:
  1. General market direction
  2. Property investment
  3. Technical analysis
  4. Futures trading
From my observation, I estimated that about 90% of the participants are Malaysian Chinese! Are other races not interested in DIY trading/investing? How come?

Anyhow, most of the talk are packed with eager participants. Some have to stand to listen to the "experts", I guess a lot of the participants are hoping to catch a tip or two to make money. Hopefully, the organizer will choose a bigger venue for this event. The thing that I dislike about the venue is that the so called "room" where the talk are held is made of 2m high partitions. Therefore, noise pollution occurs and sometimes I didn't catch what was the speaker talking about. In addition to that, one of the room (NextVIEW room) is so small and poorly ventilated that I felt like standing in a sauna! I didn't attend any talk that was held in that room.

Most of the experts that attended the convention are of technical analysis background. For those that gave their view about the market, all believed that the market has enough run up and will correct in the 2nd quarter. One of the boldest call is from Dar Wong who declared that THE top has been reached and we should expect a 50% drop soon!

The following is a brief summary about the sessions that I have attended (since I'm writing it based on my memory, many details are left out):
Dividend's Don't Lie by William Wermine: A very energetic talk from Mr. Wermine. He talks about investing in companies that consistently gave out dividends. One of the example is companies that produces basic stuff (food, beer, oil) that we cannot do without. The companies that produces these (i.e Nestle, Dutch Lady, GAB) consistently pay out good dividends. In addition to that, due to the good dividends, the price of the stock will not suffer a big sell down in a bear market because of the dividend that they gave out. Of course, dividend stocks are boring, but it is good investment for those that have the patience (measured in years) to wait for a market sell down to pick up these shares.

Panel discussion: The Year of the Tiger - Roaring Higher or Slinking Lower?: I was sitting at the back of room in this talk, therefore I didn't really catch what are they talking about because there was a considerable noise pollution from the exhibition booth. Generally, the economist are optimistic about the future.

Investment Clinic: This is a Q&A session with Dar Wong, GM Teoh, Brent Penfold and Don Schellenberg. They are all technical analyst. One question from the floor is which indicator is the best. Dar Wong replies that most are useless. The important point is to only use a simple indicator. The simple indicator used by Dar Wong, GM Teoh and Brent Penfold is moving average! Only Don Schellenberg uses EW. It is in this session that Dar Wong makes his bold call that we should expect a 50% correction soon. I asked about their trading lifestyle and Dar Wong replies that he trades using his Blackberry, and spends his free time either in the gym or reading a book. This is the life I'm seeking!

Day Trading Futures for a Living by David Lo: The speaker talks about the benefits of trading futures. They way he talks, you will think that it is so easy making a money in trading KLCI futures. Of course he did warn you about the risk, but the warning was short and brief! There after, he invites the listeners to open a futures trading account with HLG Futures. I just went over to their booth the get a free trading log book :p

How to Identify Potential Warrant Winners by Alan Voon: I am a warrant trader and I was very looking forward in hearing how Alan Voon choose his trades. Unfortunately, I was totally dissappointed! According the Mr Voon, in each year, there is only 2 chance for the warrant to rally. He then show a list of 2009 winners. I didn't recognized 90% of the counters in the list except for IJMLand and Glomac. The list is populated with penny shares warrant. Based on the list, he concludes that to choose a winning warrant that gives you 1000% gain, buy the one with the highest gearing and premium (a few hundred %) that has at least 18 months lifetime! Wah lau eh! In my opinion, his advice is more like gambling. The reason a warrant has a high premium is because it is way out of the money. So, do we just buy and wait for it to move? Do we hope that the mother share will move before the expiration is due? I strongly disagree with his advice. In my opinion, one should choose a warrant based on the movement of the mother share and not solely based on gearing and premium.

Commodities within a portfolio Context by Avtar Sandu: This is a very academic talk. The speaker cites some research papers and show some graphs on how a portfolio that includes commodities is better than one without commodities.

Magic of Property Investment by Renesial Leong: Ms. Leong charms the audience about the benefits of property investment. With a fancy intro, I thought that I was in a direct selling convention ;)

Besides the free sessions that I mentioned above, I also paid for two talks by Brent Penfold on how to trade futures. I learned a few things from him, such as that a trader needs a portfolio of techniques to trade. That means that we should not only use 1 setup to trade but have many different setups to trade. I'm currently going through his materials to see how I can apply his method to trade futures.

Among the speakers, I like Brent Penfold the most because he is very honest. He didn't sell us a dream to make easy money. He told us that trading is like a hand-to-hand battle, it is a very tough journey to climb up the mountain. But if we succeed, the rewards will be very good. He also told us that, a broker friend of his says that of the 500 trading accounts that the brokerage has, only 1 account consistently made money for a duration of 5 years! You can see how tough is trading. Our job is to survive by using proper money management technique. If you control your losses, the money will eventually come.

Overall, I'm learned a few things in ATIC 2010. I hope that I can attend next year's event. If possible, make yourself available. You will surely benefit from it.

Sunday, March 21, 2010

International Reserves of BNM

Date MYR (billion) USD (billion)
25-Feb-10 331.8 96.8
15-Mar-10 331.7 96.8


Bursa Malaysia Weekly Summary

What a packed week! I was at the ATIC 2010 during the weekend. This was my 1st investment convention that I have ever attended. I will write out about what I heard and saw in a later post (because I'm too tired to write it now).

KLCI Weekly Chart

KLCI weekly chart indicates that the penetration above 1300 could be a bear trap! RSI continues to show bearish divergence. Weekly candles indicates a reversal. No selling signal yet. So be careful!

This is the summary for this week:
Malaysia Monthly Weekly Daily
FBM KLCI Up Up Neutral (-)
Finance Up Up Neutral (-)
Construction Up Up Neutral (-)
Plantation Up Up Neutral (-)
Property Up Up Neutral

Monday, March 15, 2010

World Weekly Summary

Generally, everyone is going up, but correction is imminent because the daily chart indicates overbought and my indicator says that this is not a very strong upward movement.

World Monthly Weekly Daily
S&P500 Up Up Up
DJI Up Up Up
NasdaqComp Up Up Up
Nikkei 225 Up Up (+) Up (+)
Kospi Up Up (+) Up (+)
SSECI Up Down Down (-)
HSI Neutral Neutral Up (+)
TWII Up Neutral Neutral
STI Up Up (+) Up (+)
SENSEX Up Up (+) Up (+)
NZX50 Up Up Up
DAX Up Up Up
RTSI Up Up Up (+)
Bovespa Up Up Up

Bursa Malaysia Weekly Summary

KLCI Weekly Chart

Mind the gap at 1300-1312. Weekly candle is worrying. Be careful.

Sector summary:
Malaysia Monthly Weekly Daily
Finance Up Up Up
Construction Up Up Up
Plantation Up Up Up
Property Up Up (+) Neutral

Monday, March 08, 2010

New CIMB Warrants

4 new call warrants from CIMB will be listed on 9 March 2010:
New Warrants Expiration Type Ex Price Ratio
SUPERMX-CA 10/3/2011 Call MYR 5.6000 8 : 1
MPHB-CA 10/3/2011 Call MYR 1.8000 2 : 1
JCY-CA 10/3/2011 Call MYR 1.3500 2 : 1
MAS-CA 10/3/2011 Call MYR 2.0000 2 : 1

Friday, March 05, 2010

Bursa Malaysia Weekly Summary

KLCI Weekly Chart

KLCI chart has given me a weak buy signal. If it can close above 1308, then good chance of closing the gap at around 1350.

The strongest sector is finance. Plantation does look that strong at the moment while construction sector index indicates that it is making another rally. The weakest sector is the property.

Summary of sectors:
Malaysia Monthly Weekly Daily
FBM KLCI Up Up (+) Up (+)
Finance Up Up (+) Up (+)
Construction Up Up (+) Up (+)
Plantation Up Up (+) Up (+)
Property Up Neutral Neutral


WCT is making another attempt to break 2.85-2.86 region.

Disclosure: Long is WCT warrant.

Internationl Reserves of BNM

Date MYR (billion) USD (billion)
12-Feb-10 332.1 96.9
25-Feb-10 331.8 96.8


Wednesday, March 03, 2010

Maybank and SPSetia

Maybank and SPSetia looks good technically.

Maybank: Possible break from rectangular pattern.
SPSetia: Break out from short term downtrend (triangle pattern).

Disclosure: Long in both warrants.