Friday, March 10, 2006

Pulling the trigger

I'm having problems pulling the trigger. It's about my futures foray. My mind is wounded liao. No matter how good my analysis is, I dare not pull the trigger. I get nervous when I give the order to my broker. What can I do? Should I see a psychologist? If you read the Market Wizard series, you will know that some traders do seek the help of the psychologist with their trading performance.

Advice are always given on what it takes to win: method, risk management and mind.

I felt that the order should be reverse: mind, risk management and method.

The mind is the most important part to train. To train means getting experience. No experience, no use. Good traders I guess will act without hesitation when certain condition arises. You train your mind doing something repetitively until it becomes a habit.

I have no problem in pulling the trigger for stocks. But for futures....big hesitation.

Saturday, March 04, 2006

Immediate downside

Looks like the KLCI is going down. What catalyst that will halt this? The report seasons just completed. The big cap are not earning enough for investor to push the stock higher.

Looking at the big 3, Telekom failed to overcome the downtrend channel. Maybank still in downtrend. Tenaga can be consider to be long term trendless with downside bias.

In addition to that, oil is slowly creeping up building its base around USD60.

I guess no much upside. It is going to be a down month.

Hard to pick a stock in this type of situation. Stocks can suddenly come alive but also die suddenly. Very short term strategy is required for this type of play which I'm not good at it.

Last quarter results shows that E&E sector is having good profits. Will the momentum keeps going on? The leader of this sector is LKT. Who will follow next? D&O? Gtronic?

If oil goes up, will the O&G counters follows? KNM is the darling of this sector. Who will be next? Sapcres owe too much money. Profit not coming yet. Still in downtrend.

How about Oilcorp? got new business in deep sea fishing. Food business is good. Everyone needs to eat. Oilcorp role will be to built the ships. Anyhow, the price has been slowly creeping up. Is something big going to be announced? The chart is good and Oilcorp should be challenging 1.01 soon.

Other O&G counters that I'm watching:
Scomi: Correction may be over.
Dialog: In consolidation. Cannot break 0.50.
Muhibah: In early stages of an uptrend. This one may be a winner, a turnaround story. The price is a little bit erratic due to the low volume.

What else to play? Mesdaq? I missed out Carotec. GHLSys is consolidating. Novamsc....oh this stock.....lost big but seems to have found bottom. The monthly charts says up. So what's the story? Another turnaround story?

All banking counters are not technically attractive except RHBCap. The upper resistance is at 2.55. Let's see whether it will overcome this, if not back down again.

Anyhow, if the KLCI goes down, then every counter will go down. So better wait and be safe until a clearer picture emerge.