Tuesday, March 27, 2007

Push and Dump?

Why am I having this feeling that the stocks are pushed and dumped? Many stocks just go up for 1 day and then it started to drive slowly down. One day show. No continuing energy. This happens in rotation, from one group of counters to another new group.

What is happening?

Thursday, March 22, 2007

The worst is over?

According to my system, a buy signal was generated yesterday. Daily chart looks good. Normally, I will have a bullish view, but we have 2 gaps at 1137 and 1196.Furthermore, the weekly charts have not yet pointing upwards. Will KLCI defy the traditional downtrend during the period Apr to Aug?

Wednesday, March 21, 2007

Gap, gap, gap

Gap here and there. Down gap, up gap. I just hate gaps.

My speculation with Media and Astro turned out bad. Time to move on.

Hop into Mems, Notion and L&G. Mems chart shows that the selling pressure will be coming soon, it has gone up for the last 3 days with less volume. Rumor becomes truth. What will be next?

Property is hot due to rumor again. Will the rumor also becomes truth? I still need to clear off L&G from my portfolio.

Notion seems to be moving from the base of 0.545. Biggest hard disk manufacturer may be listing in Malaysia after all. Another rumor.

For me, I buy base on technicals. I only see how does the rumor form the technicals.

Other watch list: Samudra seems to have broken out of downtrend channel. A good based may have formed at 0.90. It gapped up with a black candle today. That is why I didn't buy.

Wednesday, March 14, 2007

2nd Wave of Selling

What an education for the investors. First we learn about carry trade. Now, we got this thing called sub-prime lenders.

The KLCI chart is pretty messy now. All indicators saying different things. It means nobody knows for certain what will happen next.

My observations:
1. The KLCI rebounded up to 61% retracement
2. Volume continues to fall
3. Weekly MACD goes negative

My intepretations:
1. Good chance of gap covering soon
2. Long term uptrend still intact but possibly we can go to 1070-1100 again
3. Most sellers has gotten out, hanging now are the long term investors

No long term buy signal yet. But some stocks just puzzles me, such as Mems. What's up?

Sunday, March 11, 2007


My observation based on daily chart:
1. KLCI has rebounded to around 55% according to EW theory.
2. Some selling can be seen as this level.
3. There is a gap between 1137 and 1144
4. Volume continues to fall
5. MACD still in negative

My intepretation:
1. The worst is still not yet over, possible gap cover.

However, it seems that the play is still on for hot counters like asiaep, quest etc.

So I think not all will go done if the index moves south. Do you see anything interesting counters?

Tuesday, March 06, 2007

Green today!

Finally something green. I felt so relieve today.

Looking at the chart, I have noted the following:
1. Daily RSI very oversold
2. Daily chart shows a bullish harami
3. Weekly chart shows that 50% retracement has occurred for the move from 883 to 1285
4. The index bounced from 30 Week EMA

My interpretation:
1. Possible temporary bottom at 1090
2. May move up to 1170 - 1210
3. Then maybe another wave of selling for those that are slow in getting out
4. Continuation of bullishess is still too early to tell.

Maybe there will be some short term trading opportunity. I'm going to switch my indicator to RSI and candlestick for some short term trading.

Monday, March 05, 2007

I forgot my own rules

Slow in, fast out. That is one of my rules. When you have to run, you have to run really fast. The drop in equity was too fast for me to react. I lost 20% just for last week. All gains has been wipe out. Now, protecting capital is the number 1 thing in my mind. Rebound? Still no sign. I bet everyone is waiting to get out when it rebounds. Who will be the smarter one?

Money come, money go. But will we learn our lessons?

Friday, March 02, 2007


Now I'm feeling panic. Prices continue to drop. Thought market can rebound but rebound didn't last more than a few hours. Continue sliding down. Huge paper profit becomes even trade and now worse. The last to sell will sell at the low.