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Monday, May 31, 2010

World Market Summary

We have some strong rebound last week. I don't think it can hold. Someone is supporting the S&P500 so that it is above 1050. Maybe S&P500 will form the right shoulder of a H&S formation. This may take 2-3 weeks.

World Monthly Weekly Daily
S&P500 Up Down (-) Down
DJI Up Down (-) Down
NasdaqComp Up Neutral Down
Nikkei 225 Neutral Down Down
Kospi Up Down (-) Down
SSECI Down Down Neutral (+)
HSI Neutral Down Down
TWII Up Down Down
STI Up Down (-) Down
JKSE Up Neutral Down
SENSEX Up Down (-) Neutral (+)
AORD Neutral Down Neutral (+)
NZX50 Neutral Down Down
FTSE Up Down Neutral (+)
DAX Up Neutral Neutral (+)
RTSI Up Down Down
Bovespa Up (+) Down Neutral (+)

Sunday, May 30, 2010

Bursa Malaysia Weekly Summary

KLCI Weekly Chart

A bullish reversal candle was seen on last Thursday's trading. Does this mean that KLCI will close the gap of 1290-1300? If this happens, thenKLCI may be forming the right hand shoulder of a H&S pattern. If KLCI closes lower this week, then most probably we can say bye-bye to the bull and hello to the bear. So, watch closely how things will be played out.

Looking at the various sectors, property is the weakest, this is followed by plantation and construction. You can try to bottom fish, but this is not my game. I will slowly go into bearish mode.

Malaysia Monthly Weekly Daily
FBM KLCI Up Neutral Down
Finance Up Neutral Down (-)
Construction Up Neutral Down
Plantation Up Down (-) Down
Property Up Down Down

Thursday, May 27, 2010

Toll Subsidy?

Toll subsidy? Er? Dud, you don't know how to negotiate the contract. You got shafted by the private sector. Now you are paying so that they don't increase the toll. Can you call this as a subsidy? You were an idiot during the negotiation table. Don't make us feel grateful because you are using our tax money to pay for your own mistakes.

If you want to stop paying for your mistake, then nationalized all the highways! It is time that the people stop getting shaft by the government because of the government incompetence. Let this B the N!

Petrol Price

I'm tired of the government using the term petrol subsidy. I don't think we are really being "subsidized". So, I am going to find out what is the actual production cost for 1 litre of petrol. I was not able to find a nice chart. Therefore, I have to do some calculation.

Some basics: 1 barrel = 42 gallons = 159 litres.

1 barrel of crude oil generally produces 19.5 gallon of petrol. At USD70 per barrel, this is equivalent to USD0.44 per litre. The following table shows the price per litre for crude oil price of USD20-140.

USD Per litre (USD) @ MYR3.10 @ MYR3.30 @ MYR3.50
20 0.13 0.39 0.42 0.44
25 0.16 0.49 0.52 0.55
30 0.19 0.59 0.62 0.66
35 0.22 0.68 0.73 0.77
40 0.25 0.78 0.83 0.88
45 0.28 0.88 0.93 0.99
50 0.31 0.98 1.04 1.10
55 0.35 1.07 1.14 1.21
60 0.38 1.17 1.25 1.32
65 0.41 1.27 1.35 1.43
70 0.44 1.37 1.45 1.54
75 0.47 1.46 1.56 1.65
80 0.50 1.56 1.66 1.76
85 0.53 1.66 1.76 1.87
90 0.57 1.76 1.87 1.98
95 0.60 1.85 1.97 2.09
100 0.63 1.95 2.08 2.20
105 0.66 2.05 2.18 2.31
110 0.69 2.15 2.28 2.42
115 0.72 2.24 2.39 2.53
120 0.75 2.34 2.49 2.64
125 0.79 2.44 2.60 2.75
130 0.82 2.54 2.70 2.86
135 0.85 2.63 2.80 2.97
140 0.88 2.73 2.91 3.08

Of course we need to add in the operating cost and transportation cost. I will ignore the transportation cost since I don't have any data. I found a chart for operating cost for US refinery here. Let's take an average of USD8 per barrel. Adding this data, I get the following table:

USD Op Cost/b Per litre (USD) @ MYR3.10 @ MYR3.30 @ MYR3.50
20 8 0.18 0.55 0.58 0.62
25 8 0.21 0.64 0.69 0.73
30 8 0.24 0.74 0.79 0.84
35 8 0.27 0.84 0.89 0.95
40 8 0.30 0.94 1.00 1.06
45 8 0.33 1.03 1.10 1.17
50 8 0.36 1.13 1.20 1.28
55 8 0.40 1.23 1.31 1.39
60 8 0.43 1.33 1.41 1.50
65 8 0.46 1.42 1.52 1.61
70 8 0.49 1.52 1.62 1.72
75 8 0.52 1.62 1.72 1.83
80 8 0.55 1.72 1.83 1.94
85 8 0.59 1.81 1.93 2.05
90 8 0.62 1.91 2.03 2.16
95 8 0.65 2.01 2.14 2.27
100 8 0.68 2.11 2.24 2.38
105 8 0.71 2.20 2.35 2.49
110 8 0.74 2.30 2.45 2.60
115 8 0.77 2.40 2.55 2.71
120 8 0.81 2.50 2.66 2.82
125 8 0.84 2.59 2.76 2.93
130 8 0.87 2.69 2.86 3.04
135 8 0.90 2.79 2.97 3.15
140 8 0.93 2.89 3.07 3.26

So, based on my estimates, we can see that at the exchange rate of USDMYR= 3.30, the government is just breaking even if the crude oil price at USD70.00 (since the petrol station and the refiner need to make a profit, we need to add this to the final selling price). Therefore, at present petrol price, if the crude oil is below USD70.00, then, you are paying "petrol tax" to the government. If the crude oil is above USD70.00, then the government is "subsidizing" you.

This is only an estimate. It is best that the government be transparent and publishes the daily wholesale petrol price, the tax/subsidy etc. The people need more information, we just don't trust the government word without further proof and evidence.

Wednesday, May 26, 2010

New CIMB Call Warrants

5 new call warrants from CIMB will be listed on 27 May 2010:
New Warrants Expiration Type Ex Price Ratio
AXIATA-CG 18/05/2011 Call MYR 3.8000 5 : 1
KENCANA-CC 18/05/2011 Call MYR 1.6000 2 : 1
MRCB-CD 18/05/2011 Call MYR 1.5000 2 : 1
DIGI-CE 18/05/2011 Call MYR 23.0000 15 : 1
BURSA-CP 18/05/2011 Call MYR 7.0000 6 : 1

Chinese Buying Gold

Saturday, May 22, 2010

Commodity Summary

Generally, the commodity price has crash:
Commodity Monthly Weekly Daily
Gold Up Up Neutral (-)
Crude Oil Neutral (-) Down Down
Crude Palm Oil Up Down Neutral (+)
Rough Rice Down Down Neutral (+)
Sugar Down Down Neutral (+)

World Market Summary

It has been a while I posted this:
World Monthly Weekly Daily
S&P500 Up Neutral Down
DJI Up Neutral Down
NasdaqComp Up Neutral Down
Nikkei 225 Neutral (-) Down (-) Down
Kospi Up Neutral Down (-)
SSECI Down Down Down
HSI Neutral Down Down
TWII Up Down (-) Down (-)
STI Up Neutral Down
JKSE Up Neutral (-) Down (-)
SENSEX Up Neutral Down
AORD Neutral Down Down
NZX50 Neutral Down (-) Down
FTSE Up Down (-) Down
DAX Up Neutral Down (-)
RTSI Up Down (-) Down
Bovespa Neutral Down Down

Friday, May 21, 2010

Bursa Malaysia Weekly Summary

KLCI Daily Summary

Look at the gaps. Since it is oversold, most probably it will cover the gap at 1290-1300. Covering the gap at 1340-1345 will require some miracle at this moment. I think that there will be a rebound which you should try to reduce your position until a clearer picture emerges. After the rebound, the index should sell down to close the gap at 1235-1240. If you are still hoping for the bull to resume, then look for support at around 1200.

Malaysia Monthly Weekly Daily
FBM KLCI Up Neutral (-) Down (-)
Finance Up Neutral (-) Neutral (-)
Construction Up Neutral Down (-)
Plantation Up Neutral Down (-)
Property Up Down (-) Down

International Reserves of BNM


Date MYR (billion) USD (billion)
30-Apr-10 313.9 96.0
14-May-10 314.2 96.1

Source.

Poll: Gold survey

Some people are calling gold a bubble speculation. I don't believe so. Why? Because my parents are not excited about the gain in their old jewelry. Everyone I talked to have no gold investment. They don't even know how to invest.

So, please vote on the left panel: Do you have any gold investment? This includes physical gold, gold passbook, gold ETF/ETN or even gold mining shares.

Poll: National Geographic Magazine Censorship


Only 18 samples for this poll. Therefore, the result has no statistic significant. Anyhow, out of this 18, 17 of the readers strongly opposed the censorship of the National Geographic Magazine. Thanks for voting!

Blood on The Trading Floor

Do you feel blood? It took about 2.5 months for S&P500 to rise from 1050 to 1200. It only took about 1 month to reverse the whole gain!

Based on daily charts, the US market indexes are almost at the oversold position. This is a panic selling because every asset class except US Treasuries are being sold intensely.

I believe that a rebound is imminent in this few days. I interpret this mini-selling as just a normal correction. The real one will come later.

Monday, May 17, 2010

IOICorp

IOICorp Daily Chart

On the verge of breaking down. If it closes below 5.25, then the next support is at 4.80 to 5.00. I have sold all my call warrant position.

Disclosure: No position.

Saturday, May 15, 2010

Andy Xie: Raise interest rates first, not exchange rate

Weekend reading: Raise interest rates first, not exchange rate by Andy Xie.

Bursa Malaysia Weekly Summary

KLCI Daily Chart

Up down, up down. You can see the daily chart that KLCI is most probably moving within a rectangular pattern (from around 1325 to 1350). This could be the highest for this year. Don't be influenced by the propaganda that our GDP will grow by 6 or 7 % this year. You must remember, our government is in need of money and they need to hype-up the good news so that you will buy the bonds. I will not touch any bonds of any government. Why? Government around the world is a very inefficient organization. If the private sector requires 10-man hours to complete a job, the government will take 20-man hours or more! If the private sector pays 1 dollar for a pen, the government have no problems paying 2 dollars for the same thing. It is bad enough the government waste by tax money to buy votes. It is also bad enough for the government to raid your pension fund to bailout certain companies. If you are fool, then go ahead and buy the government bond.

Oh, I digress to much. The summary for this week:
Malaysia Monthly Weekly Daily
FBM KLCI Up Up Up (+)
Finance Up Up Up (+)
Construction Up Neutral Neutral
Plantation Up Neutral Neutral
Property Up Neutral Down

Wednesday, May 12, 2010

New Call Warrants

6 new call warrants from OSK will be listed on 13 May 2010:
New Warrants Expiration Type Ex Price Ratio
SUPERMX-CC 10/3/2011 Call MYR 6.3000 10 : 1
GENS-C7 10/3/2011 Call SGD 0.8600 3 : 1
MAYBANK-CN 10/3/2011 Call MYR 7.3000 6 : 1
TENAGA-CP 10/3/2011 Call MYR 7.8000 10 : 1
CITIGRP-C4 10/3/2011 Call USD 4.0000 20 : 1
KNM-CE 10/3/2011 Call MYR 0.5000 1 : 1

You can get this update done by someone else (me) if you buy my Bursa Malaysia Warrant Calculator.

Monday, May 10, 2010

Bursa Malaysia Weekly Summary

KLCI Weekly Chart

KLCI uptrend is still holding. However, weekly RSI indicates that the bias is to the downside. Currently, I consider that the index is only in a normal correction mode. If the correction goes below 1260, then the normal correction will turn into a new baby bear.

Malaysia Monthly Weekly Daily
FBM KLCI Up Up Neutral (-)
Finance Up Up Neutral (-)
Construction Up Neutral (-) Neutral
Plantation Up Neutral (-) Neutral
Property Up Neutral (-) Down (-)

Sunday, May 09, 2010

Malaysia's Moral Police

Every month, I always looked forward in receiving my issue of National Geographic Magazine. I just like the fantastic photos that shows the nature and culture around the world. However, once in a while, our moral police do not approve of its content. I do not know which specific ministry that is responsible in determine what is morally acceptable to Malaysian. However, I will call them PCTK for Pasukan Conteng Tetek & Konek.

The job scope of PCTK is to ensure that matured Malaysian are not exposed to sexually explicit content that will corrupt their mind. The following photos from my March 2010 issue of National Geographic Magazine are examples of what will happen when PCTK finds that your magazine contains T&K.

Exhibit 1

Exhibit 1 shows a young Kara woman from the Omo tribe of Ethiopia trying to decide whether to wear a bra with her traditional costume. Are you sexually arouse?

Exhibit 2

Exhibit 2 shows that little children penis is a no-no too. Maybe some of you will become a pedophile if you are exposed to this. Is this a sexual content? Anyway, PCTK missed out the woman in the centre. You can clearly see her breast.


Exhibit 3

Exhibit 3 shows that PCTK has black-out this well-built young man's penis. Every man has a penis, it seems that PCTK wants to deny that there is one.


Exhibit 4

Can't show you this penis too.

Exhibit 5

No boobies of Kara women dancing. Is this very sexually arousing? Are you "playing" with yourself now?

Why is it that PCTK view these photos from a sexual angle? If your mind is dirty, then you will view anything from a dirty angle. These photos are just showing the way of life of a tribe in Ethiopia. I strongly believe there is nothing sexual about them. Furthermore, these photos are from a world renowned magazine. It is not from Playboy or some pornographic magazine. If a parent objects to these photos, then it should be up to the parents to take the appropriate action (i.e. blank it out like PCTK). However, I don't think that you can apply a general action to cover the whole range of audience.

I am very angry with what the Malaysian government (PCTK) has done to my collection of National Geographic Magazine. I am a mature adult that just do not want someone to tell me what I can or cannot see.

Poll: Do you agree with what the government has done to my National Geographic magazine? Please vote on the left panel.

Friday, May 07, 2010

International Reserves of BNM

Date MYR (billion) USD (billion)
15-Apr-10 313.1 95.7
30-Apr-10 313.9 96.0

Source.

New Call Warrants

5 new call warrants will be listed on 10 May 2010. 2 from AM while the other 3 from CIMB:
New Warrants Expiration Type Ex Price Ratio
TCHONG-CD 28/01/2011 Call MYR 4.5500 6 : 1
MISC-CI 28/01/2011 Call MYR 8.8800 6 : 1
BJTOTO-CG 13/05/2011 Call MYR 4.3000 4 : 1
PETDAG-CA 13/05/2011 Call MYR 8.8000 5 : 1
AMMB-CH 13/05/2011 Call MYR 5.0000 4 : 1

Note: First 2 is from AM while the remaining is from CIMB.