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Monday, November 30, 2009

World Weekly Summary

Dubai spooked the markets world wide. This could mark a top. Cannot say whether this is the top yet.

World Monthly Weekly Daily Note
S&P500 Up Up Neutral R=1.12k, S=1.01k
DJI Up Up Up R=11k.
NasdaqComp Up Up Neutral R=2.18k
Nikkei 225 Neutral Down Down Next R=11k
Kospi Up Neutral Down (-) R=1.9k.
SSECI Up Up Neutral (-) R=3.5k. S=2.6k. Finding base.
HSI Up Neutral (-) Neutral (-) R=23.5k, S=20k.
TWII Up Up Neutral (-) R=7.9k. S=7k
STI Up Up Up R=2.8k. S-2.52k
JKSE Up Neutral (-) Neutral (-) R=2.5k. S=2.3k
SENSEX Up Up Neutral (-) R=17.6k
AORD Up Neutral (-) Neutral R=4.9k
NZX50 Up Neutral Down R=3.2k
FTSE Up Up Neutral R=5.4k
DAX Up Neutral Neutral R=6.15k
RTSI Up Up Neutral (-) R=1.5k
Bovespa Up Up Up R=66k

Commodity Summary

Lots of traveling during the weekend. Therefore, this is late.

Commodity Monthly Weekly Daily
Gold Up Up Up
Crude Oil Up Up Down (-)
Crude Palm Oil Neutral Up Up
Rough Rice Up Up Up

Thursday, November 26, 2009

Bursa Malaysia Weekly Summary

FBM KLCI Weekly Chart

My system relies on the lagging indicator (i.e. EMA). Therefore, I can only say that a turning point has occurred only after the fact. So, today, I'm going to say that KLCI has hit the top and will now start to move down, gradually at first, but will pick up speed later on (just like a rolling train). Red flags that I see:
  1. Weekly RSI has shown bearish divergence.
  2. Weekly uptrend RSI has been broken.
  3. Weekly MACD has gone into negative territory.
With this Dubai default, KLCI should correct towards 1100-1150. Finance and construction has started to roll over. If the panic continues, this will spread to other counters. In fact, the last hurrah was the penny counters that was deliberately pushed up.

I managed to get out of my construction counters with some skin left. It was really a bruising punch. I'm not buying calls anymore. In fact, I'm looking at puts now. There are not many puts out there in Bursa Malaysia, I think that you can guess which one I will go long.

So, enjoy your long weekend and hope that we will not turned into Thanksgiving turkeys come Monday.

Malaysia Monthly Weekly Daily Note
FBM KLCI Up Up Neutral (-) R=1.3k, S=1.2k.
Finance Up Up Neutral (-) R=11k, S=9.5k.
Construction Up Neutral (-) Down (-) R=250, S=220. Serious correction
Plantation Up Up Up R=6.4k, S=5.8k.
Property Up Neutral Down R=820, S=760. Correction

New Structured Warrants fr OSK

The following call warrants fr OSK will be listed on 30 Nov 2009:
New Warrants Expiration Type Ex Price Ratio
MRCB-CB 25/02/2011 Call MYR 1.5000 2 : 1
CIMB-CH 25/02/2011 Call MYR 12.8000 20 : 1
GENTING-CR 25/02/2011 Call MYR 6.8000 10 : 1
SANDS-C1 18/06/2010 Call HKD 9.5000 8 : 1

Is OSK smelling blood?

Wednesday, November 25, 2009

Gold Manipulations

Watch this video about gold manipulations. Yes, let's buy physical gold and squeeze the manipulator's balls. Maybe gold can shot up to USD 3-4k / oz due to this short squeeze.

Part 1



Part 2



Part 3

New Structured Warrants

Here we go again. After 7 weeks of no new structured warrants, we now have 8 new ones that will be listed on 26 Nov 2009. 4 of them is on Maxis.

I wonder, does this means that the big boys have a bearish view on the market? I hope that the market will whip them into pulp :p

New Warrants Expiration Type Ex Price Ratio
MMCCORP-CA 30/11/2010 Call MYR 2.3000 4 : 1
DRBHCOM-CA 30/11/2010 Call MYR 1.0000 2 : 1
MAXIS-CA 24/05/2010 Call MYR 5.0000 6 : 1
MAXIS-CB 24/11/2010 Call MYR 5.5000 7 : 1
MAXIS-CC 20/12/2010 Call MYR 5.0000 8 : 1
MAXIS-CD 31/03/2011 Call MYR 4.8000 8 : 1
KNM-CD 24/11/2010 Call MYR 0.8000 1 : 1
KNM-HA 24/11/2010 Put MYR 0.8000 1 : 1

Sunday, November 22, 2009

Commodity Summary

CPO Futures Weekly Chart

CPO: Breakout. Should go back down to test the breakout.

Crude Oil Futures Weekly Chart

Crude Oil: Fake buy signal (refer to to my previous post). Looks like strong selling at 80.00. I still think that crude oil will hit 100 because the weekly RSI is in the 60s (bullish) but not yet hit 70s (overbought). I just don't know when.

The summary for the rest:
Commodity Monthly Weekly Daily
Gold Up Up Up
Crude Oil Up Up Neutral
Crude Palm Oil Neutral Up Up
Rough Rice Up Up Up (+)

One thing that I observe is that grain price are going up again (i.e. soybeans, wheat, oat, rice). Is this due to a weak USD or falling grain supply?

Saturday, November 21, 2009

World Weekly Summary

SSECI Weekly Chart

SSECI: Looks like it is going towards 3500-3800.

STI Weekly Chart

STI: Looks like it has broken out from ascending triangle pattern. May go parabolic if can hold on to the gain. Next resistance is at around 3250.

The summary for the rest of the world:
World Monthly Weekly Daily Note
S&P500 Up Up Neutral (-) R=1.12k, S=1.01k
DJI Up Up Up R=11k.
NasdaqComp Up Up Neutral (-) R=2.18k
Nikkei 225 Neutral (-) Down (-) Down Next R=11k
Kospi Up Neutral Neutral (+) R=1.9k.
SSECI Up Up Up R=3.5k. S=2.6k. Finding base.
HSI Up Up Up R=23.5k, S=20k.
TWII Up Up Up R=7.9k. S=7k
STI Up Up Up R=2.8k. S-2.52k
JKSE Up Up (+) Up (+) R=2.5k. S=2.3k
SENSEX Up Up Up R=17.6k
AORD Up Up Neutral (-) R=4.9k
NZX50 Up Neutral (-) Down (-) R=3.2k
FTSE Up Up Neutral (-) R=5.4k
DAX Up Neutral Neutral R=6.15k
RTSI Up Up Up R=1.5k
Bovespa Up Up Up R=66k

You can still that BRIC and anything related to BRIC (HK and Taiwan) are still going strong. Nikkei is going down, could be due to deflation. US is still holding up. Overall, mixed signals around the world, which I think is good because herding behavior is not highly correlated.

Bursa Malaysia Weekly Summary

FBM KLCI Weekly Chart

KLCI: Looks like losing steam. Still unable to clear the resistance zone of 1280-1310.

The summary for the various sectors:
Malaysia Monthly Weekly Daily Note
FBM KLCI Up Up Up R=1.3k, S=1.2k.
Finance Up Up Up R=11k, S=9.5k.
Construction Up Up Up (+) R=250, S=220.
Plantation Up Up Up R=6.4k, S=5.8k.
Property Up Neutral Down (-) R=820, S=760. Correction

The weakest sector now is property. Looks like the government is successful in taking out the fuel for the property rally. I still think that the plantation is going to rally big. I'm still thinking on whether to sell out my property holdings and put it into plantation. I need more evidence for this move.

Friday, November 20, 2009

International Reserves of BNM

Date MYR (billion) USD (billion)
30-Oct-09 334.6 96.0
13-Nov-09 334.8 96.1

Source.

Hot money is flowing into Asia but I don't see it for Malaysia.

Thursday, November 19, 2009

Video for Technical Analysis

Wanna learn about technical analysis? I found a series of videos from youtube.com that talks about technical analysis. The following is lesson 1:




Follow the series for other lessons.

Wednesday, November 18, 2009

Crude Oil Futures

Crude Oil Futures Daily Chart

The daily chart is giving a buy signal. Looks like it has broken out of the falling flag pattern. Some say the price is going up due to rising demand (better economy) while others say that it is due to reduced maximum production. The only thing I see is that it is a bull since April 2009.

Disclosure: Long in USO-C1

Monday, November 16, 2009

Genm

Genm Daily Chart

This should be it. Waited for almost 3 months for the correct signal. Most probably broken the triangle pattern. Should be challenging the downtrend line soon. Good chance of breaking the downtrend line if the breakout from the triangle pattern is valid.

There are 5 CWs and 1 PW (see below):


In my opinion, Genm-CK offers the best value.

Disclosure: Long in CW.

Sunday, November 15, 2009

My Precious

Silver Futures Monthly Chart

Platinum Futures Monthly Chart

Palladium Futures Monthly Chart

Gold Futures Monthly Chart

Do you have precious metal in your investment portfolio? Looking at the monthly gold, silver, platinum and palladium chart, gold has hit a all time high but the rest are all lagging. Will silver, platinum and palladium play catch up?

Commodity Summary

CPO Futures Daily Chart

Looks like CPO has broken out from the triangle pattern. So, look out for plantation play.

For the rest:
Commodity Monthly Weekly Daily
Gold Up Up Up
Crude Oil Up Up Neutral
Crude Palm Oil Neutral (+) Up (+) Up
Rough Rice Up Up Neutral (-)

World Weekly Summary

DJI Daily Chart

DJI: Looks like it has broken out of the downtrend!

S&P 500 Daily Chart

S&P 500: This one also has broken out of the downtrend line. The only concern for DJI and S&P 500 is the decreasing volume that accompany this breakout.

The summary for the rest of the world:
World Monthly Weekly Daily Note
S&P500 Up Up Up (+) R=1.12k, S=1.01k
DJI Up Up Up R=11k.
NasdaqComp Up Up Up (+) R=2.18k
Nikkei 225 Up Neutral Down Next R=11k
Kospi Up Neutral Down R=1.9k.
SSECI Up Up Up R=3.5k. S=2.6k. Finding base.
HSI Up Up Up R=23.5k, S=20k.
TWII Up Up Up (+) R=7.9k. S=7k
STI Up Up Up (+) R=2.8k. S-2.52k
JKSE Up Neutral Neutral R=2.5k. S=2.3k
SENSEX Up Up (+) Up (+) R=17.6k
AORD Up Up (+) Up (+) R=4.9k
NZX50 Up Up Neutral R=3.2k
FTSE Up Up Up (+) R=5.4k
DAX Up Neutral Neutral (+) R=6.15k
RTSI Up Up Up (+) R=1.5k
Bovespa Up Up Up R=66k

Looks like we are all going back to our merry way of creating bubbles. May we not be the last one to buy at the top.

Saturday, November 14, 2009

Friday, November 13, 2009

Bursa Malaysia Weekly Summary

FBM KLCI Weekly Chart

KLCI: Still going up, but beware! Volume is lower than the previous week. All possible Fibonacci retracements have been reached. The next possible resistant is at 1300. If this is broken, then most probably the gap at 1350 will be closed.

Sector summary:
Malaysia Monthly Weekly Daily Note
FBM KLCI Up Up Up R=1.3k, S=1.2k.
Finance Up Up Up R=11k, S=9.5k.
Construction Up Up Neutral R=250, S=220. Correction
Plantation Up Up Up (+) R=6.15k, S=5.8k. Correction
Property Up Neutral (-) Neutral R=820, S=760. Correction

Look out at the plantation sectors. It got a big boost on Monday, but then no life. From the CPO chart, looks like a breakout has occurred (I will post the chart in the commodity summary).

I'm currently teaching myself on how to trade the index by playing the index call warrants. This derivative instrument has a different behavior and I'm trying to adjust myself to it. Only when I feel that I'm familiar with it that I will trade the index futures. Past futures mistakes still haunt me. Just need to rewire my mind.

Thursday, November 12, 2009

Peak Oil

I'm surprise that Malaysian media seldom talk about this peak oil theory. According to the believers, oil production has or will reach peak production soon. This means the end of cheap energy for human development.

For the skeptics, they will always cite the IEA report that says that oil is abundant. Well, this story in the Guardian about a whistle-blower that alleges that IEA lies about how much oil that the world still has. A must read for everyone.

Sunday, November 08, 2009

Commodity Summary

Gold Futures Monthly Chart

Gold: Only 6 days into the month and gold has made a move that is equivalent to last month's gain. Therefore, I don't think gold will make more gains unless an euphoria grips the common people.

Crude Oil Futures Weekly Chart

Crude Oil: It seems that sellers are very aggressive at USD80. However, since weekly RSI has not moved into the overbought zone, I am expecting more gain.

The summary for the rest are:
Commodity Monthly Weekly Daily
Gold Up Up Up (+)
Crude Oil Up Up Neutral
Crude Palm Oil Down Neutral Up
Rough Rice Up Up Up

World Weekly Summary

S&P 500 Weekly Chart

S&P 500: Looks like it is going to challenge the downtrend line again. At Friday's (6 Nov 2009) closing, I don't see the possibility of a successful break yet. The index should built a base a current level so that the challenge can be successful.

SSECI Weekly Chart

SSECI: Gave a buy signal on Monday (2 Nov 2009). Looks like it will challenge 3480 resistance.

For the rest of the world, the signal is mixed. Each market is at different phase of correction. I believe that this is good. What I fear most is a strongly correlated up and down market. The former indicates euphoria, while the later indicates panic.

World Monthly Weekly Daily Note
S&P500 Up Up Neutral R=1.12k, S=1.01k
DJI Up Up Up (+) R=10.1k.
NasdaqComp Up Up Neutral R=2.18k
Nikkei 225 Up Neutral Down Next R=11k
Kospi Up Neutral Down R=1.9k.
SSECI Up Up Up (+) R=3.5k. S=2.6k. Finding base.
HSI Up Up Up (+) R=23.5k, S=20k.
TWII Up Up Neutral R=7.9k. S=7k
STI Up Up Neutral R=2.7k. S-2.52k
JKSE Up Neutral Neutral R=2.5k. S=2.3k
SENSEX Up Neutral Down (-) R=17.6k
AORD Up Neutral (-) Down (-) R=4.9k
NZX50 Up Up Neutral (-) R=3.2k
FTSE Up Up Neutral R=5.4k
DAX Up Neutral Down (-) R=6.15k
RTSI Up Up Neutral R=1.5k
Bovespa Up Up Up (+) R=66k

Friday, November 06, 2009

Bursa Malaysia Weekly Summary

FBM KLCI Weekly Chart

KLCI has given me a buy signal. Most probably it will challenge 1300 in this month. This week, all small caps counters moved up strongly. As you all know, most of the time, I trade in bluechip's warrant. Therefore, no cheers for me. All my holdings are under correction mode. Hopefully, my counters will get back into action soon.

The summary for the rest of the sectors:
Malaysia Monthly Weekly Daily Note
FBM KLCI Up Up Up (+) R=1.3k, S=1.2k.
Finance Up Up Up (+) R=11k, S=9.5k.
Construction Up Up Neutral R=250, S=220. Correction
Plantation Up Up Neutral R=6.15k, S=5.8k. Correction
Property Up Up Neutral R=820, S=760. Correction

Note that I dropped the coverage of FBM ACE index because of the difficulty of updating the data.