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Friday, July 31, 2009

Carotec

Carotec Weekly Chart

All possible downtrend lines that can be drawn have been broken. A buy signal was given and may continue moving up.

Disclosure: I'm long in Carotec.

Weekly Summary

KLCI Monthly Chart

Unbelievable. Looks like a V-shape recovery. Looks it KLCI is heading to cover the gap at 1190. Looking up, there are two gaps at 1350 and 1495. Looking down, there are many many gaps. Why is KLCI behaving like this? I think that a lot of money is going into unit trust such as ASN and 1Malaysia. Maybe someone is frontrunning these funds. Anyhow, market is really overbought. Bluechips have lead the way and Friday is penny shares day. So, how long will this last? Speculators expect that China shares will continue to go up until Oct 1 because that is the 60th Anniversary of the People's Republic of China. So, it is expected that the government will not spoil the celebration mood until after the anniversary.

Looking at Bursa Malaysia's various sector:
Malaysia Longterm Midterm Shorterm Note
KLCI Up Up Up Overbought.
Finance Up Up Up Overbought.
Construction Up Up Up Should have more room up.
Plantation Up Up Up Should make big move soon.
Property Up Up Up Waiting for big move
FBM Mesdaq Up Up Up Will challenge the previous high
FBM 2nd Board Up Up Up Overbought.

Thursday, July 30, 2009

E&O

E&O Weekly Chart

Breakout, sort of, but low volume. Next resistance MYR1.40.

Disclosure: I'm long in E&O-WA.

Axiata

Axiata Weekly Chart

Breakout. Next resistance is MYR3.70.

Disclosure: I'm long in Axiata-CB

IJMLand

IJMLand Weekly Chart

Broke out of downtrend, sort of tested the breakout and now, possibly going higher.

Disclosure: I'm long in IJMLand-WA.

HSBC

HSBC Weekly Chart

HSBC (0005.HK): Next resistance HKD80.00, thereafter HKD90.00-100.00.

Disclosure: I'm long HSBC-C5.

Tuesday, July 28, 2009

Shorts Squeeze

So, the US market is going up because "securities recalls" are in progress that will take 1 to 3 years. Those that shorted now have to buy back because the owner wants their share back. Another news is that naked shorting is now permanently banned.

The rules of the game have changed. It is crazy to be bearish at this moment. I think that the market will fall, "when" is the question.

Paul Tudor Jones

A documentary about the legendary trader Paul Tudor Jones. See his emotion during the heat of a trade, his lucky sneakers and his lifestyle (big mansion, cool vacation, philanthropic works).

Anyway, can you believe that he was talking about the great depression in 1987?

The documentary has been divided into 7 parts. Part 1 is shown below and continues with part 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 and 7.


Monday, July 27, 2009

Irrational Exuberance Again

Humans have a short memory. It was 1 year ago that the stock market crashed. Now, huge liquidity is guiding speculators to repeat history again: Sichuan Expressway Triples on Shanghai Trading Debut. That is what you get when you have near zero interest rate.

Sunday, July 26, 2009

The Ascent of Money Episode 4: Planet Finance

In Planet Finace, Prof. Ferguson talks about property ownership democracy and Chimerica. Side stories are Argentina's inflation and Bolivia's micro-financing.

World Market

A fantastic week around the world. The bears have been beaten severely. Breakouts are everywhere. Is this the beginning of a new party? I hope so. However, please keep in mind the following party poopers: CRE, swine flu, China property.

World Longterm Midterm Shorterm Note
S&P500 Neutral Up Up Slightly overbought
DJI Neutral (+) Up Up Stabilizing?
NasdaqComp Up Up Up Around R=1.95k-2k
Nikkei 225 Up Up (+) Up (+) Breaking out, next R=11k
Kospi Up Up Up Breakout, next R=1.6k
SSECI Up Up Up Wow! Next R=3.8k. Can?
HSI Up Up Up Next R=21k
TWII Up Up Up Toppish
STI Up Up Up Next R=2.65k, slight overbought
JKSE Up Up Up Next R=2.35k
SENSEX Up Up Up (+) Breaking out, next R=17.5k
AORD Neutral Up Up To challenge downtrend @ 4.2k
NZX50 Neutral (+) Up Up R=3.05k
FTSE Neutral (+) Up Up (+) Slightly overbought
DAX Neutral Up Up (+) May go to 5.5k
Bovespa Up Up Up More upside

Friday, July 24, 2009

Weekly Summary

What a week! It's like launching a rocket into space. KLCI pretty overbought now. Look for support at 1100. Currently, it is at the door step of resistance level 1160. Next resistance could be at 1300 level. Looking at the KLCI weekly chart, no bearish divergence in the RSI. However, MACD looks weak - a red flag. Anyhow, there is a gap at 1190 level, will it be closed?


KLCI Weekly Chart

The summary for the rest of the sectors:
Malaysia Longterm Midterm Shorterm Note
KLCI Up Up Up Overbought.
Finance Up Up Up Overbought.
Construction Up Up Up Should have more room up.
Plantation Up Up Up Should make big move soon.
Property Up Up Up Waiting for big move
FBM Mesdaq Up Up (+) Up (+) Will challenge the previous high
FBM 2nd Board Up Up Up Going into overbought zone

Finance is the strongest of all the sectors. Maybe next week is contruction, plantation and property play.

As fast I have sold out, I had to buy back (some at higher price) because the set up was just too good and cannot be ignored. Some have not move yet. So, I'm keeping my fingers crossed.

Thursday, July 23, 2009

Rice

14 months ago, we had a record high price for rice. The government pledged to spend $9 billion to increase rice production. What has happened now? I hope that something has been done. Looking at the rough rice futures price (chart below), it seems that RR has found a bottom, broke out of downtrend and may be heading up again. A news article from The Star says that many cannot cope with increased food price. What is the government action plan when the people goes hungry?


Rough Rice Weekly Chart

International Reserves of BNM

A small dip for 15 Jul 2009.

Wednesday, July 22, 2009

New Covered Warrant

New call warrants (from CIMB) that will be listed on 23 Jul 2009:
  1. AirAsia-CF (21 Jan 2011, MYR1.16, 2 to 1)
  2. AMMB-CE (21 Jan 2011, MYR3.48, 5 to 1)
  3. Genting-CP (21 Jan 2011, MYR5.50, 8 to 1)
  4. KLK-CI (21 Jan 2011, MYR11.80, 16 to 1)
The lifetime of the warrants kind of long this time. Anyhow, all are not worth it because there are better deals (i.e. existing warrants).

Remember, you can make your life easier by having a Bursa Malaysia Warrant Calculator. Why not give it a 1 year try? The cost is almost the same as the brokerage transaction fees. I'm sure you can earn it back in no time.

Bullish for USA

S&P 500 Weekly Chart

Look at the chart, bullish case is supported by the following evidence:
  1. H&S formation that has been broken.
  2. Bullish divergence in MACD.
  3. Bullish divergence in RSI.
The next downtrend line is drawn from the 1550 peak. This means that S&P 500 can possibly go to 1100 (time dependent).

I think that everything will be confirmed when it can close above 960 by the end of this week.

Monday, July 20, 2009

Sunday, July 19, 2009

World Market

Stocks go up around the world:
World Longterm Midterm Shorterm Note
S&P500 Neutral (+) Up (+) Up (+) Stabilizing?
DJI Down Up (+) Up (+) Stabilizing?
NasdaqComp Up Up (+) Up (+) Going to 1.95k-2k
Nikkei 225 Up Neutral Down (-) Correction over, base building
Kospi Up Up Up Possible break, more upside
SSECI Up Up Up Toppish, but still going up
HSI Up Up Up (+) If close >19k, then next R=21k
TWII Up Up Up Toppish
STI Up Up Up (+) Next R=2.65k
SENSEX Up Up Neutral Possible break, more upside
AORD Neutral (+) Up (+) Up (+) S=3.7k, R=4k
NZX50 Down Up (+) Up (+) Possible break, more upside
FTSE Down Up (+) Neutral (+) Going up but not strong
DAX Neutral (+) Up (+) Neutral (+) Going up but not strong
Bovespa Up Up (+) Up (+) To challenge 55k

Friday, July 17, 2009

Weekly Analysis

KLCI Weekly Chart

The chart says it all. 60 points of rally in 1 week. The next possible resistant area is around 1150-1160. Weekly chart in overbought area again.

Looking at the sectors, everything (except Mesdaq) is pointing up again:

Malaysia Longterm Midterm Shorterm
KLCI Up Up Up (+)
Finance Up Up Up
Construction Up Up Up (+)
Plantation Up Up Up (+)
Property Up Up (+) Up (+)
FBM Mesdaq Up Neutral Neutral (+)
FBM 2nd Board Up Up Up (+)

Ouch!

I thought the market will go into consolidation with downside bias. But, well, you can say Meredith Whitney saves the world (for now) when she turns "bullish" on GS, and the stocks boom higher! I was only 50% invested, without any bluechips in my portfolio. So the boom up makes me missed a lot of good opportunities.

Thursday, July 16, 2009

Wednesday, July 15, 2009

The Silent Evil Wish

Do you have an evil wish? I bet most Malaysian have one: by-election. In a by-election, you can get a lot of goodies, something that you don't during a general election. First, you get all the potholes patch up. Some even get brand new road. Block drains are intantly cleaned up. For voters that are over 55, they will get free sack of rice and cooking oil. Best of all, you get "Agong". The going rate is not bad, 1500? Dud, who don't want it?

Yes, the power of money. Abuse of money is the root of all evil. No wonder some people is so obsessed in clinging to power. I wonder whether power gives you the money or money gives you the power? Which comes first?

Anyhow, I don't have that evil wish. I just hope my representive is healthy because I don't want to make the choice of crossing to the dark-side. No matter how strong my will is, the temptation is just too great to ignore.

Tuesday, July 14, 2009

Warrant Addict

I must confess that I'm a warrant addict. The figure below shows a list of low premium warrants for some bluechips. You can get the full listing by buying my warrant calculator.


Breakout

KLCI Daily Chart

Looks like a symmetrical triangle breakout. Next resistance could be 1150.

Monday, July 13, 2009

If I'm the PM: SPR

Ok, I cannot stand anymore the political situation in Malaysia! So I'm going to write a series that consist of ideas that I think should be adopted for the betterment of our beloved country. Some of this ideas are so simple and efficient that I wonder why the people up there never think of it (or they just ignore it)? So, I shall begin with the reform of SPR.

If I am the PM of Malaysia, I will change the law on how Suruhanjaya Pilihanraya Malaysia (SPR) manage the voter registration.

The main question is: Why must SPR maintain a separate election voter database when we can use the one maintained by Jabatan Pendaftaran Negara (JPN)?

Let's look at what JPN do:
  1. Registering of Malayisan citizens.
  2. Issuing identity card.
  3. De-registering of Malaysian citizens (at the time of death).
I believe that JPN has maintain a good record of dead and alive Malaysian citizens. In addition to that, the citizen's address is up-to-date (by law you need to change if you stay in one place more than 3 months). This database is of better quality than the one maintained by SPR (we all know there are voters that are over 120 years old in the SPR database).

So, this is the proposed procedure for SPR during election time:
  1. Set the election date.
  2. Go to JPN and get the voter list that consist of Malayisan citizen that is 21 years old during election day.
  3. Sort the list based on address.
  4. Set the voting area based on address.
  5. Publish the list.
  6. During election day, allows voters that present an identity card with details that are the same as in the database and the face must match the person that presents the identity card (to prevent forgery).
Easy? With computerization, Step 1-5 should not take more than 1 day.

The advantages are:
  1. Reduce the duplication of resources in registering voters (save cost).
  2. Accurate list of voters (or no phantom voters).
  3. All eligible citizens can vote (better democratic process).
The disadvantages: Nil.

Of course there are some fine tuning that must be done with the above procedure. For instant, the address for every street and kampung must be standardized (i.e. Klang or Kelang). Additionally, I did not mention how to handle voters from the army and police or postal voters.

If you have a good idea for our government, please email me and I will put it up here. This is our country and the politicians are screwing it. We must stop them before they destroy Malaysia.

Saturday, July 11, 2009

World Market

Going down everywhere except Kospi, SSECI and TWII. From today onwards, I put in a few extra words for my summary to make it more meaningful.

World Longterm Midterm Shorterm Note
S&P500 Down Neutral Down (-) Still finding a floor
DJI Down Neutral Down (-) Still finding a floor
NasdaqComp Up Neutral (-) Neutral Correction
Nikkei 225 Up Neutral (-) Neutral (-) Correction
Kospi Up Up Up Toppish & should correct
SSECI Up Up Up Toppish
HSI Up Up Neutral Correction
TWII Up Up Up Toppish
STI Up Up Neutral (-) Correction
SENSEX Up Up Neutral (-) Strong correction
AORD Down Neutral (-) Down (-) Still finding a floor
NZX50 Down Neutral Down (-) Still finding a floor
FTSE Down Neutral Down Still finding a floor
DAX Down Down (-) Down Still finding a floor
Bovespa Up Neutral (-) Neutral Correction

Weekly Review

KLCI Weekly Chart

Basically, nothing happens. It looks like someone or some organization is supporting the KLCI by pushing up certain bluechip stocks. Weekly MACD is weakening. The volume is reducing too. So, I don't think it is a good time to enter new position. However, if the uptrend line do provide support, then can consider buying. Anyhow, I think that next week should be a down week.

Malaysia Longterm Midterm Shorterm
KLCI Up Up Neutral (-)
Finance Up Up Up
Construction Up Up Neutral
Plantation Up Up Neutral (-)
Property Up Neutral (-) Neutral
FBM Mesdaq Up Neutral (-) Down (-)
FBM 2nd Board Up Up Neutral

Wednesday, July 08, 2009

International Reserves of BNM


Reserves increased. How much is capital inflow and how much is due to forex revaluation?

Tuesday, July 07, 2009

Underlying Share Summary for New CWs

A summary on what I think about the underlying share of the newly listed CW:

Longterm Midterm Shorterm Note
CNOOC Up Neutral Down Should consolidate
A50CHTK Up Up Up Overbought
TRAHK Up Up Neutral Uptrend weakening
USO Down Neutral Neutral Still finding a bottom
GLD Up Neutral Down Probably consolidating
PBBANK Up Up Up A little bit overbought

New OSK Covered Warrant

New covered warrant from OSK that will be listed on 8 Jul 2009:
  1. GLD-C1 (motherstock GLD): 7 Apr 2010/USD88.50/400 to 1
  2. USO-C1 (motherstock USO): 7 Apr 2010/USD36.70/200 to 1
  3. CNOOC-C5 (motherstock 0883.HK): 7 Apr 2010/HKD9.23/8 to 1
  4. PBBANK-CK (motherstock PBBANK): 7 Apr 2010/MYR8.80/8 to 1
The lifetime of the CW is less than the previous issue. So, OSK thinks that the CW will expire out of the money on Apr 2010. That means that they think that gold and crude oil will stay depressed. Interesting.

Finally, oh Bursa Malaysia, why is your website so slow? I really feel like "cekik" you!

Monday, July 06, 2009

New Covered Warrant

New covered warrant from CIMB to be listed on 7 Jul 2009
  1. A50CHTK-C1 (mothershare 2823.HK): 3 Jan 2011/HKD13.58/8 to 1
  2. TRAHK-C1 (mothershare 2800.HK): 3 Jan 2011/HKD18.62/10 to 1
You can easily compute the CW premium by buying my CW Calculator for a low price of MYR30.00 (1 year subscription).

Lastly, to the people of CIMB/OSK/Kenanga or any future CW issuer:
Please put the underlying stock code in your announcement. This will save me the time of googling up based on the stock name.

Sunday, July 05, 2009

World Market

SSECI Weekly Chart

Broke out of uptrend channel. Weekly RSI is overbought, but history shows that it can stay overbought for a long time. The next resistance will be 3500.

HSI Weekly Chart

For 5 weeks cannot close above 19,000. May need to build a base at around 16,000 for another challenge.

S&P 500 Weekly Chart

Showing weakness. Still don't think that it will crash and make a new low. Anyhow, if it goes lower, it should scare the rest of the world markets. If it happens, it could be a good opportunity for those that have missed the Mar 2009 train.

The summary for the world markets:
World Longterm Midterm Shorterm
S&P500 Down Neutral (-) Neutral
DJI Down Neutral (-) Neutral
NasdaqComp Up (+) Up Neutral (-)
Nikkei 225 Up (+) Up Up
Kospi Up Up Up (+)
SSECI Up Up Up
HSI Up Up Neutral (-)
TWII Up Up Up (+)
STI Up Up Up (+)
SENSEX Up Up Up (+)
AORD Down Up Neutral
NZX50 Down Neutral (-) Neutral
FTSE Down Neutral Down (-)
DAX Down Neutral Down (-)
Bovespa Up Up Neutral

Friday, July 03, 2009

Weekly Review

KLCI Daily Chart

No momentum. Should not go higher than 1100 without a correction. Could this rally be over for now? I think that if KLCI close below 1050 at the end of the week, then it should visit 1000. Whether 1000 will be broken or not is still to early to tell. Generally, the market is still holding up:
Malaysia Longterm Midterm Shorterm
KLCI Up Up Up
Finance Up Up Up
Construction Up Up Neutral
Plantation Up Up Up
Property Up Up Neutral
FBM Mesdaq Up Up Neutral
FBM 2nd Board Up Up Neutral

SSECI has broken out of channel trading. How high can it go? Too bad Hong Kong stocks are not following. Now, let's look at the percentage gain from low to high for the following markets:
Low High %
KLCI 801 1096 36.83
SSECI 1665 3088 85.47
HSI 12618 19162 51.86
N225 6994 10171 45.42
Sensex 7697 15600 102.68
Bovespa 29435 54955 86.70
FTSE 3461 4521 30.63
S&P500 667 956 43.33
NasdaqComp 1266 1880 48.50

Some markets made the low in Oct 2008 while some in Mar 2009. The winner is India, giving 100% gain. Malaysia is 2nd last in the list. Even USA markets perform better then us. Anyhow, the low to high journey has not encounter any serious correction. So, in the next few months we will wonder whether it is a correction or something more serious.

Easy money has been made, the next phase is tougher. No clear indication whether the market will continue to move up strongly, or to consolidate, or to change direction.

Go For Gold

Pro-gold videos.

Peter Bookvar of Miller Tabak:


China to buy USD80,000,000,000.00 of gold (statement at the last 10s):

Thursday, July 02, 2009

Reduced 50%

Reduced my portfolio by 50%. The chart doesn't look right. Twitching on my left eyelid for the past few days. I'm nervous of something. SSEC is rampaging up, but HSI is not following up. Summer doldrums? Looking at the profit that I get, it seems that my commodities play did not work well. Maybe it need more time but I have decided that I do not want to go through the possible prolong consolidation.