Four New CW

KLCI-CE, HKEX-C8, SIME-CE and BURSA-CK will be listed on 28 Apr 08. All are in the money. Maybe a good trade for rebound play. Let's see how it opens this Monday morning. I'll wait for a few days of data before deciding. If I use moving average, I'll need at least 7 trading days to read the market sentiment. If I don't follow my technical readings, then I'll based the trade on my feelings, and most of the time, my feelings are bullish bias. That is not good.

KLCI Still In Rebound Mode

KLCI Weekly Chart

Rebound continues. Still too early to say that it will turn into an uptrend. Looking out for any sign of reversal into bearish mode when it touches 1300 to 1350.

The number of weekly bullish counters is now at 100:
ABFMY1 AHP AJI AMWAY APEX APP ARANK ASUPREM ATIS BAHVEST BERNAS BIPORT CHANG CHASE CHASE-PA CHEEWAH CME CUSCAPI DAIBOCI DAYA DELLOYD DKLS DUTALND-WA DXN ECOFIRS ENGTEX F&N FPI FRB GCE GPLUS HAIO HTPADU IMASPRO INIX INSBIO IRMGRP JETSON JETSON-LA JETSON-WA JOHAN-LA JTINTER KESM KKB KPOWER LBICAP LINEAR LIONIND LPF MAGNUM MAYBULK METACOR MFLOUR MSC MTDINFR MUDA MUIIND-LA MUIIND-LB NALURI NCB NESTLE NTPM OPUS PAHANCO PBBANK-O1 PICORP PLB-WA PORTRAD PSPRING PUC QL RAPID RAPID-WA SARAWAK SEQUOIA SHELL SITATT SPRITZR SRII STAR SUCCESS SUNCRN SWKPLNT TAANN TAKASO-WA TASEK TEXCHEM TGUAN THPLANT TIMWELL TMCLIFE TRACOMA TSM TWS TWSPLNT UPA UTDPLT WARISAN YAHORNG YOKO

The number of weekly bearish counters has reduced to 452.

I bought Digi-CB, but it seems like I may have to cut loss. Next week watchlist: YTL & MISC.

Hongkong Play List

Based on today's close, the following are considered bullish based on my weekly filter:
0688.HK 0883.HK 0939.HK 0941.HK 1398.HK 3328.HK 3988.HK

It will be my HK play watch list for next week.

Choland

Choland Weekly Chart

Hmmm....seems like Choland has broken out of the downtrend. Can it move up further? I hope so. Hopefully Shanghai will pull it up. Shanghai has a spectacular rise and a terrifying dive. Hopefully Shanghai is in rebound mode now.

Choland-C1 is in the money with 8% premium. Got 2 months of lifespan left. I'm in.

Old News

Hmmm...seems like my shipping watch news is old news. Tanker news was published in TheEdge already. Ok, I must admit I don't buy business news reading materials any more. Last time got, but I found out that I cannot translate news information to making money. Why? By the time you read the news, another 100,000 people have also read the news. Now imagine if everyone react to the news simultaneously. Chaos! So to prevent the media of draining my precious fund, I only read online version, not the full article but just the headline. Yes, just the headline, too much information is no good. I'll get confused. Information overload is bad to the brain.

Sex and Trading

Are you scare of losing money? No guts to buy? Well, looks like there is a cure for it. Sorry, it's only for guys. Read this.

Apparently some scientist found out that if men look at erotic pictures, they are more likely to take monetary gambles. Wow! No wonder I dare to play on those soon-to-expired CW. I wonder whether that is the reason why Dali has been putting sexy female pictures in his blog.

A warning: don't look at snakes or spiders picture. They will make you kecut :p

Shipping Watch

Shipping stocks may be on the move again. Maybulk looks like continuing the uptrend. Unfortunately, no warrant to play.

I'm more interested in MISC. Oil tanker rates are going up again. US oil tanker stocks has started to move. Will MISC follows? They have the 2nd largest fleet in the world. MISC has tricked me a few times, so I'm a little bit cautious in getting in.

Oil tanker market report can be obtained here.

Rebound Continues

The number of weekly bulls have increased to 81. They are:
ALAQAR APEX APP ARANK ASUPREM ATIS BAHVEST BAT BERNAS BIPORT CHANG CHASE CHASE-PA CHEEWAH CME DAIBOCI DELLOYD DKLS DUTALND-WA DXN ECOFIRS F&N FPI FRB GCE GFB GPLUS HAIO HOOVER INGENS INIX IRMGRP JERASIA JETSON JETSON-LA JOHAN-LA JTINTER KESM KKB KPOWER LBICAP LPF MAGNUM METACOR METECH MIKRO MSC MTDINFR MTEAM MUDA MUIIND-LA NALURI NCB NESTLE NTPM OPUS PARAGON PBBANK-O1 PICORP QL RAPID RAPID-WA SEACERA SEQUOIA SITATT SRII STAR SUNCRN SWKPLNT TASEK TECGUAN TEXCHEM TGUAN TIMWELL TMCLIFE TOCEAN TRACOMA TSM TWS UTDPLT WARISAN

The number of weekly bears have decreased to 571. Rebound continues. I think that the rebound target will be between 1300 to 1350.

Citibank analyst says buy now. Aiyah....depends on what type of player you are. Trend following? Swing? Fundamental?

For me, I still wait and watch.

My watch list: IOICorp, KLK, Kretam, Digi, PBBank, DBS, Capland, Wilmar, Chmobil.

I'm playing ICBC-C5, Exmobil-C1 and Cnooc-C4.

Cnooc

Cnooc Weekly Chart

US oil & gas counters rally. How about Cnooc? Chart shows that the consolidation is over. Can it challenge the old high? Two CWs are listed in Bursa: Cnooc-C2 & Cnooc-C4 (C3 doesn't exist). Only Cnooc-C4 is worth looking as it is in the money now and the deadline is in Nov 2008. The premium is quite high, but there will be a play if Cnooc is listed in Shanghai in this few months. Remember how Petroch runs in anticipation of its Shanghai listing? Well, it may and it may not repeat but I believe the risk is worth it.

Exxon Mobil

XOM Daily Chart

What pattern do you see? A symmetrical triangle or a rising wedge? It broke 90.00 yesterday. So it should challenge 95.00 again. That is why I have increased my position in Exmobil-C1.

Still in rebound mode

The index is still in rebound mode. The number of weekly bulls is now at 62, up from 51 last week. The 62 weekly bulls are:
AHP ALAQAR APEX ASUPREM ATIS BAHVEST BAT BIPORT CCK CHASE CHASE-PA DELLOYD DKLS DUTALND-WA FPI FRB GFB HOOVER INGENS INIX IRMGRP ITRONIC JERASIA JETSON KESM KKB LPF MAGNUM METACOR METECH MIKRO MILUX MSC MTDINFR MUDA NALURI NCB NESTLE NTPM OCB PAHANCO PARAGON PICORP PUC QL RAPID RAPID-WA SEQUOIA SITATT SMI-LA SPRITZR SRII SUNCRN TASEK TEXCHEM TIMWELL TMCLIFE TOCEAN TRACOMA TSM WARISAN YAHORNG

The number of weekly bears have reduced to 658 from last week's 718.

Didn't do any trade last week. Just holding up with ICBC and Exmobil CW. Oil is at USD110 now. The oil chart is still pointing upwards. So, O&G stocks will be played up? Looking at my O&G list, no buy signals from any of them. For the plantation stocks, looks like they (IOICorp & KLK) are building a base.

For this week, I'm watching IOICorp, KLK, Digi, PBBank, DBS, Capland and Chmobil.

Look East, Look South, Look West, Not Here

Number of weekly bulls still not much change. Currently at 51. They are:
AHP ASDION ASUPREM ATIS BAHVEST BTM CHASE DELLOYD DFZ-PC DKLS FRB GFB GOLSTA IBHD INGENS INIX IRMGRP JERASIA KKB LPF MAGNUM METACOR MILUX MITRA MLAB MSC MTDINFR MUDA NALURI NCB NESTLE NTPM PACMAS PAHANCO PARAGON PICORP PORTRAD PUC RAPID RAPID-WA SCOMAL SEQUOIA SITATT SRII TAKASO TEXCHEM TIENWAH TMCLIFE TRACOMA TSM WARISAN

From the list, looks like nothing is interesting at all. The number of weekly bears is currently at 718. The blue chips are not worth having now, the main indexes are still dropping.

Nothing much for KLSE stocks but there is a possibility for rebound play for foreign CW:
Looking east: Chmobil, ICBC
Looking south: Capland, DBS
Looking west: Exmobil
Some of these CW are in the money or almost in the money. Due to bad market sentiment, the premium is quite "cheap" but timing is the problem. Can it move up in 2-3 months time? I'm in ICBC and Exmobil CW. Still stalking the rest. I'll play small only to sharpen my skills. Dare not lose my trouser.