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Sunday, September 21, 2008

Out of touch, out of fear

Oh boy. I was disconnected from the Internet when all these things happened. Why such volatility? Well, if you have traded US options, you will know that around expiration week, things can get really wild. Sept 19 was the expiration date for the Sept options. Things really got wild. Didn't really able to profit anything. Anyway, the charts are still down.
Malaysia Longterm Midterm Shorterm
KLCI Down Down Down
Finance Down Down Down
Construction Down Down Down
Plantation Down Down Down
Property Down Down Down
Mesdaq Down Down Down
2nd Board Down Down Down

If you know candlestick analysis, then you can see a very long shadow for the KLCI chart. This indicates an extreme condition and may signal market reversal. Lets wait and see what happens next week.

World Longterm Midterm Shorterm
S&P500 Down Down Down
DJI Down Down Down
NasdaqComp Down Down Down
Nikkei 225 Down Down Down
Kospi Down Down Down (-)
SSECI Down Down Down
HSI Down Down Down
TWII Down Down Down
STI Down Down Down
SENSEX Down Down Down
FTSE Down Down Down
DAX Down Down Down

If you do momentum analysis, you can detect some bullish divergence in the chart. This indicates that the sell down is getting weaker.

I think that if a bull is to emerge from this, it still requires many months to establish a base. My strategy is to let the contratrians do the work of creating that base first. If they are successful, then of course I'll join them. If they fail, then I'll just watch what a fool they are.

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