KLCI End of Year Analysis

KLCI Monthly Chart

1500 is hard to crack. Monthly Stochastic has been in the overbought region throughout 2010! Monthly RSI also points to a overbought condition which usually means limited upside in the future. However, with money flooding into the system, the uptrend can be longer than anyone expected.

2011 theme should be inflation. To play the inflation theme, one must buy companies that are involved in producing the raw material such as mining and agriculture and avoid companies that deals with the end users. This is because it is easy for the producer to hike up prices to the manufacturers, but it is harder for the manufacturer to pass on the cost to the end consumers.

For the various Bursa Malaysia sectors, all had a good run in 2010, but now look toppish. They look like in distribution mode for the pass month and two. So, sell into strength because the market cannot always go up.

Sector summary:

Malaysia	Monthly	Weekly	Daily
FBM KLCI	Up	Up	Up
Finance	Up	Up	Up
Construction	Up	Up	Neutral (-)
Plantation	Up	Up	Up
Property	Up	Up	Up

Concerning IJM/IJMLand, someone really has inside information that cause the great plunge. SC should investigate. The suspension should have started before the trading days begins, not at 12pm. Anyhow, stock trading is always an unfair game, so just keep that in mind.

Interesting Chart: YTLPowr

YTLPowr Daily Chart

A buy signal given. This could be another chance to ride the uptrend.

Disclosure: Long

By the way, the IGB chart turns out to be boring, therefore, I have to let it go.

New SW

4 SW will be listed on 29 Dec 2010:

New Warrants	Expiration	Type	Ex Price	Ratio
CHMOBIL-CF	28/12/2011	Call	HKD 78.0000	20 : 1
WANT-C1	28/12/2011	Call	HKD 6.5000	3 : 1
AIA-C3	28/12/2011	Call	HKD 21.0000	10 : 1
GENS-CD	28/12/2011	Call	SGD 2.2500	6 : 1

New Foreign SW

4 new SW from CIMB will be listed on 21 Dec 2010:

New Warrants	Expiration	Type	Ex Price	Ratio
WYNN-C3	22/12/2011	Call	HKD 16.8800	10 : 1
HSBC-C8	22/12/2011	Call	HKD 75.0000	40 : 1
HSI-CE	29/06/2012	Call	24,000.00	4000 : 1
HSI-H3	29/06/2012	Put	24,000.00	4000 : 1

Bursa Malaysia Weekly Summary

KLCI Weekly Chart

Still cannot break.

Sector summary:

Malaysia	Monthly	Weekly	Daily
FBM KLCI	Up	Up	Neutral (-)
Finance	Up	Up	Up
Construction	Up	Up	Up
Plantation	Up	Up	Up
Property	Up	Up	Up

Interesting Chart: IGB

IGB Daily Chart

May have broken the triangle pattern. May also have cleared the resistance at 2.05. If it can stay above this level by the close of today, then the next resistance is 2.35-2.50.

Disclosure: Long

Bursa Malaysia Weekly Summary

KLCI Weekly Chart

Looks like the 1520 is a tough nut to crack. After 3 times, still no success. I'm seeing conflicting signal from the weekly chart. MACD & Stochastic points downwards, EMA points upwards while RSI also indicates upwards. Maybe this indicates a top. I see excessive exuberant in a few counters based on the premium on the warrants. Examples are SPSetia and Pchem. Anyway, no downtrend signal yet.

Sector summary:

Malaysia	Monthly	Weekly	Daily
FBM KLCI	Up	Up	Up (+)
Finance	Up	Up	Up (+)
Construction	Up	Up	Up
Plantation	Up	Up	Up
Property	Up	Up	Up (+)

New OSK CW

6 new CW from OSK is listed today (9 Dec 2010):

New Warrants	Expiration	Type	Ex Price	Ratio
GENTING-CW	5/8/2011	Call	MYR 9.8000	12 : 1
BURSA-CR	5/8/2011	Call	MYR 7.5000	10 : 1
GAMUDA-CO	5/8/2011	Call	MYR 3.5500	4 : 1
AIA-C2	5/8/2011	Call	HKD 21.0000	12 : 1
ABC-C1	5/8/2011	Call	HKD 4.0000	2 : 1
APPLE-C4	5/8/2011	Call	USD 300.0000	1000 : 1

International Reserves of BNM

Date	MYR (billion)	USD (billion)
15-Nov-10	326.5	105.8
30-Nov-10	326.4	105.8

Source.

Bursa Malaysia Weekly Summary

KLCI Weekly Chart

Market still refuse to correct significantly. Europe and US central bank keeps pumping money. The extra money will end up being used for speculation. Maybe the general election is near. Need to keep the voters happy, if not, they will vote you out. So, I'm that happy the market is not dropping but also cautious for any sell off.

Summary:

Malaysia	Monthly	Weekly	Daily
FBM KLCI	Up	Up	Neutral
Finance	Up	Up	Neutral
Construction	Up	Up	Up
Plantation	Up	Up	Up (+)
Property	Up	Up	Neutral

New OSK CW

4 new call warrants from OSK will be listed on 3 Dec 2010:

New Warrants	Expiration	Type	Ex Price	Ratio
AIRASIA-CK	1/8/2011	Call	MYR 2.3000	3 : 1
PCHEM-CA	1/8/2011	Call	MYR 5.0000	5 : 1
IOICORP-CQ	1/8/2011	Call	MYR 5.6000	6 : 1
SANDS-C2	1/8/2011	Call	HKD 16.0000	8 : 1

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