Oil & Gas Counters

I missed out the O&G rally two years ago. I was just starting to trade then. Never have the guts of chasing shares and was a believer of buying when the price was falling.

The world oil price is fluctuating around USD60. So what's up with our O&G counters?

KNM: Weekly chart shows that it is consolidating. Possible support at 3.00.
Perisai: Sideways.
Ramunia: This one I intepret it as end of bull-run and possibly into consolidation with downside bias. Maybe support at 1.00. It was unable to crack 1.25, forming a double top.
Sapcres: Slowly going down. Avoid!
Scomi: Slowly going down. Avoid!
ScomiMR: Downtrend share. Avoid!
Shell: Uptrend share. In consolidation now. Support at 10.00?
Sumatec: Slowly going down. Avoid!
TgOffs: Uptrend share. Slowly going up. Where can enter ler?
Waseong: Sideways.
Oilcorp: This one oil or fish-oil counter? Anyhow, this one got potential. Currently in consolidation and trading near the possible support of 0.66.

Starting to make mistakes again!

Not a good week for me. The number of mistakes are increasing. Mis-intepreted Farmbes and Timecom. Poor choice on Mbfcorp. Cut lost on Sunrise.

Now looking at Carotec. Maybe the low of 0.58 is the end of correction period. 2 white candles in a roll is a good sign. Wait for T+4 signal to see whether selling pressure will reemerge.

Mesdaq Counters

This is the weekly chart for the Mesdaq market. High of 170 during July 2003 and starting to slid from April 2004. Going back to square one. The monthly MACD is improving. Maybe in 3 to 6 months we will see the bottom. Just maybe……All the Mesdaq counters that I am monitoring is still in downtrend, except for some: Carotech (consolidation), Gpacket (toppish?), Gdex (toppish?), Jobs (uptrend).

Property Counters

This is the weekly chart for the Property Index in Bursa Malaysia. The peak is March 2004. It is still in downtrend and making new low. Still cannot see the bottom. Will avoid all property counters from now onwards, as fear of interest rate hike will affect the sales of property, depressing earnings.

For past mistakes, I have to turn it into “long term” investment lor.

Sunrise

Finally sold out Sunrise with a lost :((

Even with 12 cents dividend coming this November, it is still sliding down slowly. Weekly MACD going into negative zone, this means more downward pressure. Not sure whether the share buyback will stop it or not.

Farmbes, Timecom, MBFCorp, RHB, Carotec, S

What a busy week for me. I was practically not in the market as I was away in Europe for a job interview. So no feelings for any of the blood bath in the market. Anyway, if the market didn’t come down, who will be the greater fool to buy it at a higher price from us?

Farmbes: Didn’t buy because it is not within my buying range. A double top at RM1.02 region? Since the weekly candle is no good, I think that a good entry will be at 0.85-0.90 (if it do continue upwards).

Timecom: Did not cut lost yet. Weekly chart shows that consolidation may be over.

MBFCorp: Still holding. Hard to play penny shares as the trading range is too narrow.

RHB: Back to square one. No signals yet.

Carotech: Daily reversal candle with volume. RM0.62 has been holding well for 3 days. Consolidation over? Weekly chart no more overbought.

Sunrise: Looks like rebound is over. Still in downtrend. Going to exit this counter soon.

Sunrise

Will it be pushed up before the dividend (12 cents) ex-date? Weekly has flashed a buy signal but daily not yet. I bought this one in August after reading some buy call from one of the brokerage (stupid of me for buying so fast) I'm hoping to get something out of this counter. Downtrend resistance at 1.60. So must watch carefully if the price can reach that region. Property counters are not doing well now. Will this counter go against the wind?

Entry: 1.535, 1.45

Farmbes

Resuming the uptrend. Daily/weekly/monthly all positive. This is a speculative counter. Old name is Sinmah. Chicken business. Very high risk. Bird flu can crash it anytime. Berani tak?

PECD, MBFCorp, MTDInfr-WA, RHB, Carotec

PECD: Aiyah, I missed this one. Queued at 0.50 and tak dapat. Try to safe 5 cents lor :p Weekly chart still say up. But daily chart says consolidation. I'm not sure what to do with this one. I give it a passlah.

MBFCorp: Got some at 0.065. Weekly and daily chart still okay. So do nothing. Not much bullet left lor.

MTDInfr-WA: Still in consolidation. Maybe action next week if MTDInfra starting to move again.

RHB: Still in consolidation. Wait for clearer signals to reenter (if got)

Carotec: Weekly candle no good. Consolidation time after an overbought condition. Maybe support at 0.60?

MTDInfr-WA

I think that someone is pushing this stock price down so that "they" can get it cheaper. Today's Bizweek from Star has an article about MTDInfr-WA exercise price that was published wrongly in many publications. I think this is it, the push down and promotion are all "interlinked". Looking for the push towards 0.40 now.

From the chart, it is still in consolidation mode. But the bigger trend is up.

Timecom

I bought it at 0.64. Bad move because the daily MACD is negative now. So expecting a consolidation next week. The weekly candle is not a definite sell yet. I set the cut lost level at 0.58. What to do when you have entered wrongly?

Entry: 0.64

MBFCorp

I have no idea what is this company's business. Anyhow, the daily and weekly chart also flash a buy signal. Should I jump into it? Play small small can kua.

PECD

This one starting to move again. It is a construction counter with lots of project in the Middle East. Construction counters are performing badly due to the lack of projects and thinning profit margin.

Daily and weekly chart flash a buy signal. Will it be able to break the downtrendline? Is this for real?

Timing Problem & Proposed Solution

I really have timing problem. With RHB, I'm too slow to take profit. With Carotec, I'm too fast with it. So what's the problem with me? Am I destined to be poor as the big profits always elude me?

I think I know why. I'm too fast in adding new positions. To prevent from losing the additions that I made, I exited to protect it.

I scan back the historical charts and notice that an uptrend stock will go up for 2-6 months. Everyday looking at the screen, expecting actions is very bad for trading.

So now, I will limit myself to maximum 1 trade per counter per week. All trades will be based on the weekly chart. If there is a buy/sell signal, then the trades will be done on Monday morning. For buy trades, the stop will be set on the previous week lowest price (in case my bet goes wrong).

I will stick to this rule unless I it is found to be unsuitable. So lets see how good will this turn out to be. Wish me luck!

Exit Carotech

The daily and weekly indicators are very overbought, I decided to exit completely as oil is dropping towards the USD60. Will the biodiesel rally fizzle out if oil price crash? Today it rallied above 0.70. It's just not my luck to make this profit. Just earn a small profit for this counter.
Entry: 0.395, 0.585, 0.63 and 0.675
Exit: 0.645, 0.66

RHB, Carotech, Timecom, MTDInfr-WA

RHB: Finish exiting from RHB, maybe prolong consolidation now? I don't now. Only gain 10% profit. So miserable. Need to fine tune my profit taking strategy. Still looking for the right answer.
Entry: 0.595, 0.645, 0.715 and 0.905
Exit: 0.79, 0.775, 0.825

Carotech: Okie, trying out my new profit taking strategy with this counter. Weekly and daily RSI all overbought. Will it be pushed above 0.70? If I am right, maybe wave 5 has terminated at 0.69. That's why I took partial profit. I'm not so sure yet. May have to exit completely if it cannot overcome 0.70. But will not add in any more positions.
Entry: 0.395, 0.585, 0.63 and 0.675
Exit: 0.645

Timecom: Continuing the uptrend? Weekly RSI at 64, target 0.76? Play play a little bit. If up again, will add again.
Entry: 0.64

MTDInfr-WA: Still trading at a discount! Why? I think I know why: The Edge got it's exercise price wrong. They put 1.00, but in fact it is 0.80 after capital repayment at the end of 2003. Is it safe buying now? Hmmm....hard to say, MTDInfr looks like in consolidation mode now. Support maybe at 1.15, unless MTD keeps buying MTDInfr.
Entry: 0.285 (twice), 0.32 and 0.345 (twice)

The lowest or the best chance?

I once told a friend that once a stock starts moving up, then we should hop into it to ride the momentum. My friend says it is too dangerous, better buy when it is low. I understand his statement, he wants to earn the highest percentage. The problem is how do you know that the current price is the lowest? Can you be sure that it will not continue rolling downhill?

There is only 1 way to make money in Malaysian stocks, that is when the stocks going up. Then only you can sell at a higher price. You can't short a stock as it is illegal. That means you need to identify a stock that is going up in the early stages.

How to identify a stock that will continue to go up? You may be scare that it is only a rebound and will then continue down. Yes, fear if you do not understand the characteristics behind the movement of every stocks. That's why we need to learn technical analysis. Why does technical analysis works? Because the professionals are using it. The action of these people that moves the stock. These are the people that buy in large quantity.

So, I think that we should stop fishing for low price stocks. Instead, we should jump into a stock when it shows the odds of rallying further. Buy high, sell higher. Then only we can make money.

Exiting RHB

RHB has just pierce through my stop of 0.80. Should have not add in extra position at 0.905. I need to fine tune my exit strategy. Big profit becomes small profit. Oh well, at least I still have my original capital. Will try to sell all tomorrow.

Entry: 0.595, 0.645, 0.715 and 0.905
Exit: 0.79, 0.775

Carotech Wave 5?

Wave 3 was propelled by bio-diesel. Then the next one by news of 3-for-5 bonus. Is this the last of wave 5? Will it be pushed to above 1.00? I just don't know.

My entry: 0.395, 0.585, 0.63