Fear the bulls

Everyone is very bullish. Since the day I kept statistic on advance/decline ratio, this is the highest. Bullish counters based on daily charts is at all time high. Volume is also very high. Who will be the guys that will buy high and sell higher? Sugar is the speculative leader for this round rally. What possible reasons that can be used to push the stocks higher? I guess that currency theme will be played again. Then maybe the 3rd quarter result season, and finally the year end Santa theme. I don't know whether it will last until God of Prosperity or not....what I know is not to buy high volume counters at this moment. It's kind of hard to set stops when the stock keep moving up everyday. It's like jumping on a moving train, you will be rewarded if you got the skills, but most of us will just get killed.

Next coming Monday should be a down day....it always a down day during early of the week for the past 2 months. This is because amateurs and professionals buy and sell at different time (you got to read A. Elder book to understand this). Furhermore, the Dow close lower, so sentiment maybe affected. Lets see how does the high volume are absorved.

2/3 Stupid

Hmmm...my analysis on Frontken is wrong. The force is very strong. Is it institution buying? I only sold 2/3 of my last holding. So I'm feeling 2/3 stupid. It's hard to being a trader, it's hard to make selling decision. Ride my winners, cut my losers. 6 words and so hard to implement.

Masteel, Media, Nextnat

Using EMA analysis, KLCI is still in uptrend. Using stochastic or RSI, then it is overbought. In trending times, I think it is better to use EMA for guidance. Overall, there are no bad signs yet. Still sitting tight with my Measat and Wellcall. Maemode & Mems look like not moving. GHLSys kaput liao? Maxis....aiyoh....EPF changing from left hand to right hand.


Masteel: Something breweing underneath.


Media: Looks like continuing the uptrend. My purchase of Media-WA was totally bad timing. Need to buy when it is consolidation. Need to teach myself to follow this rule. At least I break even now (after 3 weeks of waiting).


Nextnat: Looks like a breakout from triangle.

Conspiracy Theory of Short Selling

This is my conspiracay theory on why Bursa defer short selling to next Jan 2007.

Currently we are having our Deepavali/Hari Raya rally, next will be Christmas rally, followed by New Year rally, then it's Chinese New Year rally. You see, we are a multi racial country. So all major races must be kept happy and enjoy the celebration. By the time CNY, the index will be sky high. What do you do when everyone is high? Sell lah...so that's why Bursa is postponing it to next January 2007. To prevent anyone from spoiling the fun.

Then there will be an election conspiracy theory...I'll make up of something..some time when I'm boring.

New High

So today the index breaks new high with high volume. This is not the time to buy. It is the time to wait and see. See how strong is the profit taking and whether there are more people waiting to buy. If the major newspaper publish this in the front page, then beware!

I took a lost in Wahseong this week. Oil and gas not in play anymore? I ignored the technical signs because of my fundamental view for this counter. You see how my so called neutral stand can be easily sway by other factors. I got on the wrong O&G counter.

Since everything is going up, stock selection will be easy now.

Anyhow, using my volume/candle criteria, I took profit on Frontken. I always feel uncomfortable when a counter shoot up too fast. It's like a sprinter that will run out of breath after 100m. I prefer marathon runners counter. Less stressful for the mind.

KLCI, Mesdaq & Coastal

Looks like I really need to cut lost fast. My hand is just too slow. Mismanage my Gamuda-WC, from a small profit to a lost. This goes also for Cepat. Entered at the wrong time for Media-WA and MPHB-WB. Still waiting for something to happend with Maemode-WA and GHLSys.

At least got some comfort with Wellcall, Measat, Frontkn and Mems.

Is this a bull or what? Monthly chart shows KLCI got potential to break higher, I do not see any signs of trouble yet (but then again my bullish bias may effect my judgement) I read that many other analysis complaint about low volume, I think that is OK. Low volume means not everyone are convince yet. So, it should be OK to buy. High volume shows everyone is in (students with PTPTN money, auntie with wet market money, and retirees with life savings etc) Then that is the time to sit tight and watch. I always remind myself that professionals buy when everyone is not looking, and sells when everyone is buying. So need to think like the pros. Beside that, need to remember that in any bull move, the blues will move first (Commerze, Tenaga, Maybank), then the 2nd liners, then 3rd, 4th and so on.

I have stopped buying on breakout. Too many times get caught. Now buying during low volume. It's ok for me since my position is so small it won't "move" the market during low activity. Low means the stock has calm down after sudden burst of activity with the long term trend still pointing upwards.



Mesdaq: Weekly RSI hinted that the worse is over for Mesdaq.


Coastal: Weekly EMA shows that it may be moving up again.

Quest

Moving up. All indicators pointing up. New base at 0.26.

Stalking: Maxis

If can break 9.00, then confirm a possible short term opportunity. Long term charts are pointing upwards except the monthly MACD. Maxis-CA (RM8.11, 18 Nov 2007) is a good play if Maxis can move up.