Bull vs Bear (28 Sept 2007)

Bull vs Bear

Daily & weekly bulls up, bears down. Monthly numbers about the same. So, 3rd quarter window dressing is over. What's up next?

KLCI Weekly Chart

My interpretation: The weekly chart is pointing upwards. However, the strength is suspected as the MACD is still negative. I feel more comfortable when MACD is in the positive region.

Anyway, I won't be too concern with the subprime problem. So as long as the market is in play, we play along (as long as a proper stop can be found).

My other holdings of Malaysian counters:
- Perisai (could be a mistake in entering this one, O&G play still taking a rest?)
- Pohkong (not yet move at all. Another mistake? But last night I dreamed that it shoot up :p).

Finally, talking about window dressing, doesn't it strike a fear in you (for those that invest through a mutual fund) that a fund manager must resort to dressing up a share price to give you an illusion of good performance? Doesn't this be consider as cheating?

Bull vs Bear (27 Sept 2007)

Bull vs Bear

Bull won! From this action and the KLCI chart, looks like the index is heading to 1400. I'm looking out for the following bluechips:
Genting: If can close above 8.20, then confirm break medium term downtrend channel.
Resorts: looks like going to challenge the upper channel at 4.50.
Plus: Broken medium term downtrend channel. Looking for a reasonable entry point.
PBBank: Looks like going to break 10.00
MISC: Broken medium term downtrend channel. Not sure about the strength.
IOICorp: 1st attempt at above 6.00 failed. Another attempt again?
KLK: Broken medium term downtrend channel. Looking on how is the possible correction going to be.
Gamuda: Challenging 9.00. Waiting for the appropriate time to enter (if any).

In addition to that, I notice that the steel players are moving now: Kinsteel, Masteel and Ornasteel.

This week, I opened new position in IOICorp-CE, Kretam-WA, Masteel and Singtel-C1. Hopefully no bad news to scare us anymore until CNY.

Bull vs Bear (26 Sept 2007)

Bull vs Bear

Looks like the bulls are slowly increasing in numbers. The attention has shifted to local counters today as HK is closed for the mid autumn festival.

Since the market is hot, more CWs are issued, the latest are from CIMB: Petroch-C4, Chlife-C4, Resorts-CD and TM-CF. All are in the money and will be listed on 28 Sept. Watch out for Petroch-C4, really undervalue as Petroch has rallied quite a lot.

Talking about CWs, I prefer individual stocks CW than basket CWs because it is easier to compute the intrinsic value for the former as compared to the later. For instance, the basket CW ZA-OSKSB, I can't even remember what does the basket contains. To get the intrinsic value, one need to find out the value of the components and this cannot be down easily. No wonder the ZA-OSKSB is so thinly traded. Anyway, the latest basket coming out will be from CIMB that comes with some catchy name: 3 Treasures and Black Gold. The basket consists of counters from 3 countries name Malaysia, Hong Kong and Singapore. It is hard enough to monitor the basket from the same country, I don't know how can one monitor from 3 countries. I don't think it is worth the effort at all.

Bull vs Bear (25 Sept 2007)

Bull vs Bear

Not much changes in the bulls and bears.

The euphoria for HK CWs have taken a rest. Look out for new CWs on 27 Sept: CCCC-C4, Chlife-C3, Angang-C1 & Cheungk-C1. As I'm using a trend following system, I need at least 7 trading days before I can decide whether to trade in these new issues of CWs.

Bull vs Bear (24 Sept 2007)

Bull vs Bear

A bigger change in the number of bulls (up) and bears (down) today. Looks like the HK spillover effect.

KLCI looks like going to challenge the previous high. I will get into more BM counters.

HK H-shares CWs are running riot. I dare not add anymore. Holding position in CCCC, Petroch, Cnooc, Chlife and ICBC. The last time I added when the counters are running (MPHB, Gamuda, Maxis), I became nervous and sold out with any sign of correction. Because of this, it turned out that I missed out the biggest moves. This time I try not to repeat the mistake. I will try to ride out the correction.

Bull vs Bear (21 Sept 2007)

Bull vs Bear

Short and medium term bears continue to go down. The rest no significant change.

Why are Malaysian counters not moving? Well, let's look into the Top-10 blue chips:
Maybank: Long term support has just broken, going down. No end in sight.
Commerz: Long term uptrend. Correction may be over and currently fighting to continue up.
PBBank: Long term uptrend and it seems possible that the correction is over. Trying to build a base at around 9.50.
Tenaga: Long term support broken. Going down and no end in sight.
TM: Long term support broken. Going down but much slower as compared with Tenaga. No end in sight.
Sime: Long term uptrend. Looks like correction is over and trying to push up higher.
IOICorp: Long term uptrend. Trying to break 6.00.
Genting: Long term uptrend. Correction may be over and in base building phase now.
MISC: Long term uptrend but still unable to break above 10.00. Correction may be over now and going for another attempt to the upside.
Resorts: Long term uptrend. Currently under correction mode and trading within a clearly defined uptrend channel.

So, looks like the bears are a little bit stronger for the top-10 blue chips. No wonder KLCI cannot go up.

Bull vs Bear (20 Sept 2007)

Bull vs Bear

Not much change in the bears but the number of bulls are slowly creeping up. With the crude oil at around USD80.00, the golden oil producers has started to move. I only notice them today.

Weekly Plantation Index

The weekly plantation index chart shows that the consolidation is over. The main contributor is of course IOICorp. This is my opinion for counters with warrants/CW:
IOICorp: Long term uptrend. Trying to break 6.00. I will try to get into IOICorp-CE.
KLK: Long term uptrend. Broke out of consolidation. But does not fulfill my buy signal yet.
Kmloong: Long term uptrend. Still in correction.
Kretam: Long term uptrend. Within a clearly defined channel. Currently in base building.
Kulim: Long term uptrend. Still in correction.
SOP: Long term uptrend. Making an ascending triangle. Warrant is too expensive to play.

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Bull vs Bear (19 Sept 2007)

Bull vs Bear

Barely noticeable change. Seems like we will continue to become a laggard market. Luckily we have some foreign CWs to play with.

Anyhow, let's look at the banking sector today. The following are my interpretation based on their weekly chart:
Affin: Long term uptrend but in consolidation mode now.
AMMB: Long term uptrend and it seems possible that the correction is over. Trying to build a base at around 4.00.
BIMB: Trendless.
Commerz: Long term uptrend and it seems possible that the correction is over. Trying to build a base at around 10.50.
EONCap: Trend pretty flat.
HLBank: Long term uptrend but not yet complete it's correction yet.
Maybank: Long term uptrend but not yet complete it's correction yet.
PBBank: Long term uptrend and it seems possible that the correction is over. Trying to build a base at around 9.50.
RHBCap: Long term uptrend and it seems that it is starting to move up again.

Gold & Pohkong

Okay, everyone knows that gold is shooting through the roof like oil.

My question is, if there is an oil play for KLSE, will there be a play for gold? The counter that has any connection with gold are Pohkong, Tomei, Degem and Yikon. Out of this 4, only Pohkong shows sign of going up. Yikon has been pushed up sky high and now is still dropping, Degem is also dropping while Tomei is flat.

So, is it worth buying Pohkong? The future cannot be predicted, however, I've have taken a position in Pohkong due to its favorable chart.

Start of Year End Rally?

DJI, Nasdaq and S&P500 all gives short term buy signal. This could signal the beginning of year end rally. Will Malaysia follows? Will the foreigners come back and pump up more?

Bull vs Bear (18 Sept 2007)

Bull vs Bear

Short and medium term bears continue to increase. Bulls more or less stay the same.

Oil is at record high now. What will happen to the oil and gas counters?

This are my interpretation based on weekly charts:
Alam: Long term uptrend but under correction mode now.
Deleum: Downtrend, no bottom insight.
Dialog: Long term uptrend but possibly under base building mode now.
Epic: Long term uptrend but under correction mode now.
Kencana: Long term uptrend but under correction mode now.
KNM: Up up and away. In correction mode now.
Muhibbah: Up up and away. In correction mode now.
Oilcorp: In downtrend. No bottom insight yet.
Penergy: Slowly going down.
Perisai: In uptrend. Hard to say since the bulls and the bears are actively fighting. If close above 1.50, uptrend may continue. If not, will go into correction mode. I'm holding a small position in this counter.
Petra: Long term uptrend. In correction mode.
Ramunia: In downtrend.
Ranhill: I'm putting this as O&G. In uptrend. Behavior similar to Perisai.
Sapcres: In long term uptrend but still in correction mode. May have found bottom.
Scomi: In long term uptrend but still in correction mode. May have found bottom.
Tgoffs: Slow and steady uptrend. In base building now.
UMW: I'm putting this as part of O&G. In long term uptrend but in correction mode now.
Waseong: In long term uptrend. Possibly correction is over and under base building now.

So, my conclusion, Perisai and Ranhill should offer some exciting play at the moment.

Bull vs Bear (17 Sept 2007)

Bull vs Bear

A sharp rise in the number of short and medium term bears!

Bull vs Bear (14 Sept 2007)

Bull vs Bear

All increases in number. I'm more bias towards a bearish view since I have immerse myself with so many bearish articles. US seems not dropping. Some last minute support. Just like KLCI. It seems that it doesn't cost a lot to buy a few lots to support the index.

Anyway, there are not many opportunities (yet) for KLSE. However, for the foreign CWs, it is making new high everyday. During the previous month downtrend, I sold most of them except Chlife-C1, ICBC-C3 and Petroch-C3. Last week, I added a few position after seeing that HK listed red chips are quite resislient to what was happening in the US. I missed out most of the action because the price was moving very fast and I was not able to find any good stop level. Furthermore, my bearish beliefs stop me from taking a bull position. But after observing the HKeX reaction to the US market, it seems that the players there is disregarding the US but is paying more attention to PRC.

My interpretations are as follows:
BOC: Cannot move up yet due to subprime investment. Still in base building mode.
CCCC: In uptrend. Daily RSI in 60s, so should go up some more. I'm looking at CCCC-C1 if it continues up.
Chalco: In uptrend but after that superb run, consolidating now. No signal yet of continuing uptrend.
Chlife: In uptrend. Daily chart may indicate the continuation of uptrend after 2 weeks of consolidation. I'm still holding Chlife-C1, the problem with this is that the volume is extremely thin.
Chmobil: In uptrend. All CWs are worth trading.
Cnooc: In uptrend. Cnooc-C1 premium is consider high if you compare it with other in the money CWs. I'm trying to get into this one.
HKEX: In uptrend. Those that bought will be really happy.
HSBC: Trendless.
HWL: In uptrend. It may be ending it's consolidation in a week or two. I'm keeping an eye on HWL-C1 which is back in the money.
ICBC: Trying to break 5.20, then should zoom up. But the subprime is still weighting on it.
Petroch: In uptrend and in a clearly defined channel. I think that it has just broken out from consolidation. Currently, the upper channel is at 13.00. I have added some position in Petroch-C3 and will add more when the price moves further.
Shenhua: In uptrend, runaway. Go up too fast.
Sinopec: In uptrend but currently building a new base.

Besides that, Singtel looks like it has broken out of consolidation and making new high. Singtel-C1 is a good ride. I'm going to get into this one also.

Mesdaq & 2nd Board Index

Weekly Mesdaq Chart

Mesdaq counters are out of fashion already. Going down. No bottome in sight.

2nd Board Weekly Chart

Looks like going to break to the downside.

Bull vs Bear (13 Sept 2007)

Bull vs Bear

A jump in the number of bears. Bulls continue to reduce in numbers. This indicates that some counters in the no animal zone has joined the bears. Even thought the CI doesn't change much, the underlying sentiment is becoming worse. What will the market do when Sept 18 comes?

Bull vs Bear (12 Sept 2007)

Bull vs Bear

For the 3rd day, the bears increase in strength while the bulls are weakening. Not a good sign.

Bull vs Bear (11 Sept 2007)

Bull vs Bear

Bulls down, bears up! Rebound going to be over? I got the feeling that the index will visit 1200 again.

Bull vs Bear (10 Sept 2007)

Bull vs Bear

No significant change. No clear winner.

YTL Power

YTL Power Weekly Chart

Looks interesting. RSI downtrend broken. MACD going positive. Stochastic & RSI points up. Not yet overbought. If market sentiment is good, then may hit the upper channel.

YTL Power Daily Chart

Bears are selling at the previous high of 2.50. Possible weakness coming. Will wait and see how does the correction turns out.

I will play TYL Power warrant if I decided to take out a position.

Bull vs Bear (7 Sept 2007)

Bull vs Bear

Same story as yesterday. Bulls increase a little bit, bears reduce a little bit. The majority in non-animal zone.

KLCI Weekly Chart

Continue to recover. I only interpret this as rebound phase. No bullish signal yet.

A pack a day

It's budget day. Will the smokers get it again? I don't smoke, I pity those that smoke, I feel angry when they smoke in front of their kids. All efforts to discourage smoking does work.

Well, let's view smoking from the point of financial gain.

Assumption: You pick up smoking when you leave school, so let's say 18 years old. If you smoke later than that, most probably you don't get so hooked on. Anyway, due to your smoking, you die at 50 years all after having a pack a day for the last 32 years. Well, let's assume that a pack of cigarette cost 5.00 and it stays constant throughout your life (tough luck!).

Do you know how much you will have if if you didn't smoke and instead invest the money? Well, I use the compound interest calculator to calculate the amount:
Current principal: 0.00
Annual addition: 5 x 365 = 1825
Years to grow: 32

If the interest rate is 3%, the amount you would have obtain (at the end of the period) 98,692.06!
If you are lucky and found a unit trust that gives you 6% return annually, then it will be 175,826.28.
If you are a heavy smoker that smokes 2 packs a day, you would have 351,652.55 (for 6% return).

Mama mia. Imagine what you could have done with that kind of money when you retire. Unfortunately, it's all gone up in smoke.

Bull vs Bear (6 Sept 2007)

Bull vs Bear

Immediate bulls increases but longer term bulls decreases. For the bears, all 3 different period decreases. Even though the bulls have increased in numbers for the past 2 weeks, the majority of the counters are still in the no animal zone (not defined as bull or bear).

Bull vs Bear (5 Sept 2007)

Bull vs Bear

A bigger jump in the number of bulls vs bears. Is it time to buy? I think this depends on your personality and the type of system that you are using.

KLCI Daily Chart

The daily chart shows that all downtrend have been broken. Indicating the worst is over. But it is just under 1300 and also the maximum Fibonacci level for a rebound. So depending on your system, you could be selling or buying. Remember, for every trade, one side is bull and the other side is bear. Each side will see different things.

KLCI Weekly Chart

I prefer the longer term weekly chart. Not that much noise, that means less trade to perform. As one can see, it is still considered to be in consolidation (bull scenario). It could also mean bearish rally (bear scenario). The signals all are contradicting each other.

As the chart has no clear answers, that means I don't know whether the bull or the bear is stronger. That's why I choose to stay sideline.

This write up is to show that technical analysis is just a tool, interpreting and executing will require experience.

Bull vs Bear (4 Sept 2007)

Bull vs Bear

No significant change. Waiting for US to show guidance?

Bull vs Bear (3 Sept 2007)

Bull vs Bear

Same story as last session. Bulls up, bears down.