Saturday, July 12, 2008

Still Bearish

I'm still bearish on KLSE. As the KLCI index indicates that the market was pretty oversold, that is why we had a bounce in the week. However, based on the reading of the charts, it tells me that this is only a dead-cat bounce. KLCI may attempt to reach 1200 but I strongly believe that it will test 1050 soon. The trend is still down. This is because the plantation index has just broken it's first uptrend line (there is another one at around 6600).

Malaysia Longterm Midterm Shorterm
KLCI Down Down Down
Finance Down Down Down
Construction Down Down Down
Plantation Down (-) Neutral Down
Property Down Down Down
Mesdaq Down Down Down
2nd Board Down Down Down

Well, I'm not an economist but this is what I understand based on what is happening in the US and how it will affect the rest of the world:
High oil and the subprime crisis have affected the auto, airline and financial sectors. People are loosing jobs. Consumption has shifted from high end to lower end. Luxury goods are suffering. Whole sale retailer are seeing more businesses due to limited amount of disposable income. High end retailers will be hit and more jobs will be lost. Consumption will shrink again affecting other sectors. Stock market will go down, reducing the people's wealth. So, the vicious cycle become worse. When the Americans, who lives on borrowed money stop consuming, it will hit the rest of the world. Can the Chinese and Indians replaced the reduced demand? Hey, aren't they the one getting more wealthy because of the Americans?

Anyway, look at the bright side. People will get healthier as they must use more human power to get around. Maybe the percentage of overweight people will be reduced as everyone is eating less (me included). We don't need to spend so much on our health care system because less people are getting sick. Hey, experts are even predicting less road accidents due to high oil! Corruption will be wipe out because nobody has anymore money to bribe. Government development will become more efficient as there is less money to waste. Social order will be disrupted at the beginning to flush out the bad things, but at the end of this crisis, we will come out better.

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