Where is Santa?

KLSE is not reacting to US stock movement. I'm still expecting a rebound. December is the month where stocks usually move up. In addition to that, the fund manager must do some window dressing to cover their miserable performance. But.......most of sector charts are still pointing down:

Malaysia	Longterm	Midterm	Shorterm
KLCI	Down	Down	Down
Finance	Down	Down	Down
Construction	Down	Down	Down
Plantation	Down	Down	Neutral (+)
Property	Down	Down	Down
Mesdaq	Down	Down	Down
2nd Board	Down	Down	Down

The rest of the world looks like stabilizing:

World	Longterm	Midterm	Shorterm
S&P500	Down	Down	Neutral (+)
DJI	Down	Down	Neutral (+)
NasdaqComp	Down	Down	Neutral (+)
Nikkei 225	Down	Down	Neutral (+)
Kospi	Down	Down	Neutral (+)
SSECI	Down	Down	Neutral
HSI	Down	Down	Neutral (+)
TWII	Down	Down	Neutral (+)
STI	Down	Down	Neutral (+)
SENSEX	Down	Down	Down
FTSE	Down	Down	Neutral (+)
DAX	Down	Down	Neutral (+)

But please note that US stock market has gone up with decreasing volume. So when everyone is back after Thanksgiving, do expect the real action to continue.

Also, the talk of the town is that China is in panic mode. Their GDP may contract more. Now, if we can lend money to the Americans to continue their spending binge, maybe we can save the world from going into a severe recession.

If you are interested in US and world economy, then please do read the blog Calculated Risk.

To Test The Downtrend Line?

All sectors are still pointing downwards:

Malaysia	Longterm	Midterm	Shorterm
KLCI	Down	Down	Down
Finance	Down	Down	Down
Construction	Down	Down	Down (-)
Plantation	Down	Down	Down (-)
Property	Down	Down	Down
Mesdaq	Down	Down	Down (-)
2nd Board	Down	Down	Down (-)

However, the downward pressure doesn't look strong. This observation is obtained base on the daily MACD reading that shows some contradiction with the price movement. A good chance that the rebound may continue towards the downtrend line that is currently at around 950. Maybe the rebound can just stuck at 920 again. The important point is that the probability is still not favorable for going long.

KLCI Daily Chart

For the rest of the world, the reading is still gloomy:

World	Longterm	Midterm	Shorterm
S&P500	Down	Down	Down
DJI	Down	Down	Down
NasdaqComp	Down	Down	Down
Nikkei 225	Down	Down	Down
Kospi	Down	Down	Down
SSECI	Down	Down	Neutral
HSI	Down	Down	Down
TWII	Down	Down	Down
STI	Down	Down	Down
SENSEX	Down	Down	Down
FTSE	Down	Down	Down
DAX	Down	Down	Down

After China unveiled its stimulus package, SSECI seems to have stabilize. Well, President elect Obama has unveiled his stimulus package that will create 2.5 million jobs. My questions are:
1. Where is he going to get the money?
2. Can the banks be saved before the effect is seen?
3. Are investment bankers and auto plant workers going to the work of shovelling sands, welding metals and laying bricks?

Anyway, base on the Chinese announcement and the effect on the Shanghai stock market, I guess that NYSE and Nasdaq will also stabilize (unless Citi crashes on this coming Monday).

Nassim Taleb Says Portfolio Theory is `Hogwash'

Listen to this podcast.

Continuing Down?

KLCI rebound may be over. If 800 breaks, then the next possible support is around 640.

Malaysia	Longterm	Midterm	Shorterm
KLCI	Down	Down	Down (-)
Finance	Down	Down	Down (-)
Construction	Down	Down	Neutral
Plantation	Down	Down	Neutral
Property	Down	Down	Down (-)
Mesdaq	Down	Down	Neutral
2nd Board	Down	Down	Neutral

US roller coaster ride may reach another cliff that will clearly break the Oct 10 lows (I'm talking about DJI).

World	Longterm	Midterm	Shorterm
S&P500	Down	Down	Down
DJI	Down	Down	Down
NasdaqComp	Down	Down	Down
Nikkei 225	Down	Down	Down (-)
Kospi	Down	Down	Down (-)
SSECI	Down	Down	Neutral (+)
HSI	Down	Down	Down (-)
TWII	Down	Down	Down
STI	Down	Down	Down (-)
SENSEX	Down	Down	Down (-)
FTSE	Down	Down	Down (-)
DAX	Down	Down	Down (-)

By the way, have you seen the news concerning China's Oct industrial production growth? 8% increase. But wait a minute, the electricity consumption contracted by 4%! Huh?!

The Global Bailout Map

I want more sir! 20 billion --> 85 billion --> 700 billion --> gazillion ???

The global bailout map. 

The more you bailout the sick companies, the more I'm scared.

The End

A great article from Michael Lewis. It is about the people that saw and profited from this subprime crisis.

Rebounding

KLCI Daily Chart

KLCI had a big bounce from 800 to 900. Downtrend line resistance is at 950-970. So, will it go higher? What are the fundamentals for it to go higher? A new US president does not mean that the problem will go away overnight. The next fear factor may be China contracting GDP.

My interpretations for the various sectors in KLSE are:

Malaysia	Longterm	Midterm	Shorterm
KLCI	Down	Down	Neutral (+)
Finance	Down	Down	Neutral (+)
Construction	Down	Down	Neutral (+)
Plantation	Down	Down	Neutral (+)
Property	Down	Down	Neutral (+)
Mesdaq	Down	Down	Neutral (+)
2nd Board	Down	Down	Neutral (+)

For the rest of the world:

World	Longterm	Midterm	Shorterm
S&P500	Down	Down	Down (-)
DJI	Down	Down	Down (-)
NasdaqComp	Down	Down	Down (-)
Nikkei 225	Down	Down	Neutral (+)
Kospi	Down	Down	Neutral (+)
SSECI	Down	Down	Down
HSI	Down	Down	Neutral (+)
TWII	Down	Down	Down
STI	Down	Down	Neutral (+)
SENSEX	Down	Down	Neutral (+)
FTSE	Down	Down	Neutral
DAX	Down	Down	Neutral

World Market (20081031)

Asian markets are still pointing down. The US seems to have stabilized but it was the end of month, so some funds may have done some window dressing. The selling pressure seems to have subsided but this may be the calm before the next storm.

World	Longterm	Midterm	Shorterm
S&P500	Down	Down	Neutral (+)
DJI	Down	Down	Neutral (+)
NasdaqComp	Down	Down	Neutral (+)
Nikkei 225	Down	Down	Down
Kospi	Down	Down	Down
SSECI	Down	Down	Down
HSI	Down	Down	Down
TWII	Down	Down	Down
STI	Down	Down	Down
SENSEX	Down	Down	Down
FTSE	Down	Down	Neutral (+)
DAX	Down	Down	Neutral (+)

KLCI (31 Oct 2008)

KLCI Monthly Chart

The support at around 800 has been tested and is still holding. It may rebound to the 930-980 region. If the 800 level is broken, then the next support is at 550 to 650.

Major KLSE sectors are still bearish:

Malaysia	Longterm	Midterm	Shorterm
KLCI	Down	Down	Down
Finance	Down	Down	Down
Construction	Down	Down	Down
Plantation	Down	Down	Down
Property	Down	Down	Down
Mesdaq	Down	Down	Down
2nd Board	Down	Down	Down

Cheap Sales (10): Property

Property Sector Index

16 years of bear market! The index value is currently at support level. If this fails, the next one will be at 400.

KLCCP Monthly Index

This one still looks strong. Technically, it has broken its uptrend line support and the next possible support is at 2.30.

Mahsing Monthly Chart

This one also looks strong. I thought of playing the rebound game but back off due to bad market sentiment. Next possible support is at 1.00.

SPSetia Monthly Chart

The next possible support is at 2.50.

Suncity Monthly Chart

The next possible support is at 1.30.

Sunrise Monthly Chart

Tested the final uptrend line support and still holding. If this fails, then the next possible support is at 0.70.

Cheap Sales (9): Oil & Gas

I really don't understand how this people think or analyze. Aseambankers has downgraded the oil and gas sector to underweight on Friday (Oct 31, 2008). They did it after the sector has loss 50 to 80 % of value from the peak! Errr...should you give us a much earlier warning?

Dialog Monthly Chart

Tested the uptrend line at 0.50.

Kencana Weekly Chart

Moving within a downtrend channel.

KNM Monthly Chart

What happened to this industry's darling? Tested its uptrend line at 0.40.

Muhibah Monthly Chart

Broken its uptrend line. Tested the support at around 0.65. If this fails, then the next possible support is at 0.25.

Penergy Weekly Chart

Still in downtrend. No idea where is the support.

Petra Monthly Chart

Broken its uptrend line. Next possible support is 1.00.

Sapcres Monthly Chart

Uptrend line at 0.60 seems to be holding after some panic selling. If this breaks, the next possible uptrend line support is at 0.30.

Waseong Monthly Chart

Broken its uptrend line. Next possible support is at 0.85.

Summary: All O&G counters are still in bear mode. No base building or reversal signal seen. Rebound should happen as they have been very oversold.

Cheap Sales (8): Airline

AirAsia Monthly Chart

Still in downtrend. Should challenge the previous low of 0.76.

MAS Monthly Chart

Resting at its uptrend line. If this breaks, the next possible support is at 2.40.

Cheap Sales (7): Shipping

Maybulk Monthly Chart

Looks like going back to square one. Supports: 1.90 (an uptrend line that is not shown in the chart above because I forgot to draw it and I'm lazy to upload the file for the 2nd time) and 1.60.

MISC Weekly Chart

This is a boring counter. Volume is very low. Next possible supports: 7.20 and 6.00.

Cheap Sales (6): Power

Tenaga Monthly Chart

Uptrend broken. Next possible supports: 4.50 and 1.60. If USD continues to rise, this stock is going to get toasted.

YTLPowr Monthly Chart

Uptrend broken. Next possible supports: 1.45 and 1.00.