Rebound?

KLCI Weekly Chart

Weekly RSI has entered to oversold region. KLCI should rebound this week. A rebound may take us back to above 1550 to close some gap downs. Any rebound is a good time to get yourself completely out of this market (assuming that you are still sane and able to act after 2 months of torture).

Bear Market

KLCI Monthly Chart

Based on the monthly chart, we are now officially in bear market territory. Any rebound is a good sell. Don't go against the trend. I think that 1400 is the first support where the market will rebound. If 1400 is broken, then next support is at around 1000.

Go luck!

SaversHub.com

I'm back! I've been liquidating my portfolio since my last post. Any new trades are all resulted in losses. I'm pretty busy with my own business. Lots of Web development.

The result of my work? Please visit savershub.com, it's a Internet Yellowpages kind of business for Malaysia (currently). Give it a try. You can find banks, fast food restaurant, petrol station (Petronas, NGV stations, no Shell and Caltex yet), free WiFi (Penang free wifi etc), hospital, clinics, credit card offers (currently CIMB and Citibank, a bit outdated though).

Search is much better than existing engines, try searching 'restaurant' in Mid Valley. You can use postcode, area name (i.e. OUG), building name (i.e. Suria KLCC) in the location box.

For mobile, you can go to m.savershub.com, if your phone has a GPS, you can try finding directions (we do not store your GPS coordinate, if you are concern about your privacy) If you don't like the suggested route, you can change it. Additionally, you can see the turn by turn instruction on the map itself. Unfortunately, it is not like a dedicated GPS device. No voice instruction.

Best of all, it works with English, Malay and Chinese! It should consistently shows the same result no matter the language you used (i.e. clinic, klinik or 诊所). If you like SaversHub.com, please spread the news :)

Why did I launch SaversHub.com? This is because of my frustration of existing search engine. All the existing yellowpages search (don't want to name names here) just give me junk result. Trying search for Klang and you get the result for the whole of Klang valley! This means information overload.

So fellow readers, please test drive SaversHub.com. Try the following:

1. Starbucks at Klang vs Starbucks at Klang Valley, you will be surprise :)

2. Free wifi at Penang

3. Petronas NGV in KL (short form for Kuala Lumpur)

Of course SaversHub.com is still new, the database is still new. We don't have everything yet, but with your help, we can. I hope that you all can make this a success.

SaversHub.com means saving you time and money. Search must return correct result in the shortest time.

International Reserves of BNM

Date	MYR (billion)	USD (billion)
15-Mar-11	340.6	110.4
31-Mar-11	344.5	113.8

Source.

Bursa Malaysia Weekly Summary

KLCI Weekly Chart

A sell signal on the daily chart for KLCI. Looks like the index won't go up for at least another 1-2 months. No weekly sell signal yet. Not a time to buy. Better sell half until the weekly signal indicates whether the bull or the bear is in charge.

Malaysia	Monthly	Weekly	Daily
FBM KLCI	Up	Neutral	Down (-)
Finance	Up	Neutral	Down (-)
Construction	Up	Neutral	Down
Plantation	Up	Neutral	Down (-)
Property	Up	Neutral	Neutral (+)

International Reserves of BNM

Date	MYR (billion)	USD (billion)
14-Feb-11	338.0	109.6
28-Feb-11	338.6	109.8

Source.

China Watch

SSECI Weekly Chart

SSECI is now almost entering its 2 years consolidation period. If it can break above 3100, then it will be entering another bull phase. So, look out.

Best way to play is through the ETF listed in US: Direxion China Bull x3 (CZM).

Good luck!

Dollar Crash

DX Futures Weekly Chart

The press has not been talking about this yet (or they have, I don't know since I don't watch TV or read newspaper). The DX chart shows that the USD has just broken its support line. The dollar crisis is coming (again!). Uncle Ben will eventually face the fact that too much money printing will cheapen the value of the currency.

What will happen?

First you need to understand the basic: Money must generate yield (i.e. interest rate). Nobody can stand to see their money generate 0% return. This idea has been reinforced by money managers.

When one asset class is not generating any yield, investor will move the money into another asset class. Traditionally, the money will move into either bond or equity. That is why you have the inverse correlation between bond-equity. Equity goes up, bond goes down. Bond goes up, equity goes down. But that relationship is not valid now as we have another class to invest, commodities and precious metals. With the invention of ETF/ETN, it is now easier to invest in commodities an precious metals.

The next mania is happening now, right in front of our own eyes. This is your chance to get 1000% return (if you get it right and stay with the trend). Try not to underestimate the trend. Remember that when SSE was at 3000 and everyone calling it a bubble - which it eventually doubled to 6000?

Good luck!

Bursa Malaysia Weekly Summary

KLCI Weekly Chart

KLCI seems to have stabilized within the uptrend line. It did broke briefly which scares everyone, but now is up above the line again. As I said in my last post (3 weeks ago), there is no sign of a bear market yet. Based on yesterday's closing, KLCI should oscillate between 1500 - 1540 before making its next move. I don't know whether this is a bullish or a bearish move yet. If you need a prediction, then I will say to the upside because:
1. Do not underestimate the power of money printing.
2. MYR is still appreciating against USD.
3. Non-professional investors are all bearish about the market.

Point 3 is interesting because I heard of stories about people switching from equity unit trust to bond or investors liquidating because they read it somewhere that the market is failing. This is a sign, in my opinion, that the top has not been reach for the simple reason is that there is no euphoria. When the majority agrees on the same thing, the market will do the opposite because the power to move markets is controlled by the professionals hedge fund manager (not the typical unit trust manager).

So, I think that after the market has stabilized, KLCI will challenge 1600 again, this will suck in the innocents before the real selldown.

Sector summary:

Malaysia	Monthly	Weekly	Daily
FBM KLCI	Up	Neutral	Neutral (+)
Finance	Up	Neutral	Neutral (+)
Construction	Up	Neutral	Down
Plantation	Up	Neutral	Neutral (+)
Property	Up	Neutral	Down (-)

For the next few months, concentrate your money in inflation theme. Buy precious metals, O&G, agriculture because the USD is experiencing a slow crash (news has not reported it yet - no panic yet). The commodity play will enter into an euphoria state before we hit a recession/depression.

Good luck!

Invest in Malaysian coins

Yes. I'm asking you all to invest in Malaysian coins. Coins are more valuable than paper money. Why? Due to the surge in metal prices, the value of the metal in the coin is now worth more than the face value.

1 pound = 0.45359237kg = 453.59237g
From LME
price for 1 pound of copper = USD4.44
price for 1 pound of nickel = USD12.83

Weight for Malaysia 10 cent coins = 2.828g
it contains 75% Cu and 25% Ni or 2.121g Cu and 0.707g Ni

The value of Cu in the coin
= (2.121 / 453.59237) x 4.44
= USD0.02076
= MYR0.06313

The value of Ni in the coin
= (0.707 / 453.59237) x 12.83
= USD0.02000
= MYR0.06082


Total value of the 10 cent coin = MYR0.1239!

This is a profit of 23.9%!


What are you waiting for? I'm not going to use my coins anymore. They are all going into my Milo tin :p


Notes:
1. USD1 = MYR3.0410
2. Malaysia coins specs

Tua Pek Kong vs Najib

The 2011 economic prediction from Tua Pek Kong is as follows (source):

1. The country’s economy will fare best in the first four months of the Lunar New Year...
2. ... the second trimester would be moderate...
3. ... while the remaining months would “not be that good” and businessmen will find it a challenging time.

Sounds like a downhill economy to me. Najib says GDP growth of 6%. Does that 6% includes inflation?

Previous entry for chneah huoy:

1. Chneah huoy 2009
2. Chneah huoy 2010

Bursa Malaysia Weekly Summary

KLCI Weekly Chart

KLCI at around the uptrend support line. I'm expecting a rebound from here. Based on weekly chart, this is just a normal correction.

Sector summary:

Malaysia	Monthly	Weekly	Daily
FBM KLCI	Up	Neutral (-)	Down (-)
Finance	Up	Neutral (-)	Down (-)
Construction	Up	Neutral (-)	Neutral (-)
Plantation	Up	Neutral (-)	Neutral (-)
Property	Up	Up	Up

Less Post

You may have noticed that as the Malaysian market gets hotter, the frequency of my post gets lower. Well, you don't need anyone to tell you what to buy in a bull market, don't you.

Anyhow, the main reason is that I'm busy with my pet project. Starting up my own company and looking for investor. Still no luck with the investor part yet.

So, expect lesser posting from now onwards. I will try my best to find time for weekly analysis.

Do you notice that junk stocks are flying now? A red flag for us to get notice.

Oh, the frustration of seeing IGB fly, after I let go to buy into YTLPowr which goes down instead! Argghh...double whammy.

International Reserves of BNM

Date	MYR (billion)	USD (billion)
14-Jan-11	329.9	106.9
31-Jan-11	333.5	108.1

Source.

Looks like money continues to flow into the country. The strengthening of the Ringgit is good news for the importers but bad news for the exporters. This also benefits those company with large foreign borrowing.

2011 CLSA Feng Shui Index

Yes, it is the time of the year for the CLSA Feng Shui Index. Read the complete report here.

As you can see, the above chart shows a bumpy year ahead. The index moves higher overall but with more than 50% retracement.

CLSA also predicts what sector to be in:
Great Year: Financials, Gaming, Gold, Resources, Transport
Good Year: Oil & Gas, Technology, Telecoms/Internet, Utilities
Bumpy Year: Property

Remember, the prediction is for Hong Kong. Nothing said about Malaysia.

So, go and and download the full report from them.

New CIMB CW

4 new CW from CIMB will be listed on 13 Jan 2011:

New Warrants	Expiration	Type	Ex Price	Ratio
KNM-CF	17/01/2012	Call	MYR 2.9000	4 : 1
RHBCAP-CE	17/01/2012	Call	MYR 8.5000	8 : 1
MPHB-CD	17/01/2012	Call	MYR 2.2000	3 : 1
GENM-CP	17/01/2012	Call	MYR 3.3500	4 : 1

Cooler Temperature and Investment

There was a news item in The Star today about cooler temperature. The report didn't give any specific reason for the out of the ordinary event. Well, if you subscribe to John Mauldin newsletter (free of charge), then you will know that the erratic weather pattern across the world (i.e. freezing winter in Europe and massive flood in Australia) is due to the volcanic activity in the Kamchatka Peninsula. Volcanic ash always have a cooling effect as they block out the sun ray. What does this means? The immediate effect will be lower crop yield (less sunshine, less growth). The other will be the weather.

As speculators, we should be anticipating higher prices for agriculture products. So, buy stock that is related to this sector.

I cannot find the original post from John Mauldin, but this blog has the article.

KLCI Weekly Review.

KLCI Weekly Chart

Finally broken 1520 region. The index is slightly overbought now. So, expecting a pullback. Extra high volume is a danger sign that the crowd is finally here. As we know, the crowd will always buy at the top. However, the uptrend can stay up than what we expect it to be. The important thing is not to buy top-20 volume counters, buy counters with good setup but with low volume.

Sector summary:

Malaysia	Monthly	Weekly	Daily
FBM KLCI	Up	Up	Up
Finance	Up	Up	Up
Construction	Up	Up	Up (+)
Plantation	Up	Up	Up
Property	Up	Up	Up

International Reserves of BNM

Date	MYR (billion)	USD (billion)
15-Dec-10	326.7	105.9
31-Dec-10	328.6	106.5

Source.

Bullish or Bullshit?

More and more people are in the bull camp. Analyst are competing among themselves to predict the year-end target. Be careful with their prediction. One cannot predict any point in the chart. It is as good as throwing darts. If you believe in their prediction, than you are sucker. They always give a reason to you to buy because they need to unload their investment to you. Remember, the same people who is giving sunny picture is also working in the same firm that also manages money for other people. Prices need to be pushed up to generate profit.

For me, I don't believe that all is well in this country or this world. There are still too much debt that needs to be repaid. Growth that is generated through debt is just an illusion. Look at KNM that fell down from the sky (now has recovered back).

2011 theme is inflation if the the Fed gives on pumping money. If they don't, then we will go into another recession. Keep an eye on the price of crude oil, if it is too high, then growth will be curtailed.

I have not been trading since the last trading day of 2010. Just sitting on my position. Some worked, some didn't. On average, oklar.

Now, I don't think that I need to highlight any stock. Everything is flying. Everyone is a genius now.

If you are curious about my holding, then I don't mind telling you: IJM, IJMLand, E&O, Gamuda, YTLPowr, IOICorp, MHB, UMW and Axiata.

8 New AM CW

8 new call warrants from AmBank will be listed on 5 Jan 2011:

New Warrants	Expiration	Type	Ex Price	Ratio
AIRASIA-CL	8/12/2011	Call	MYR 2.5000	4 : 1
DRBHCOM-CD	8/12/2011	Call	MYR 1.8800	3 : 1
POS-CA	8/12/2011	Call	MYR 3.3000	4 : 1
IJM-CF	8/12/2011	Call	MYR 6.3800	6 : 1
SPSETIA-CC	8/12/2011	Call	MYR 5.6000	8 : 1
CIMB-CK	8/12/2011	Call	MYR 8.6000	12 : 1
GENTING-CX	8/12/2011	Call	MYR 10.7800	15 : 1
PCHEM-CB	8/12/2011	Call	MYR 5.5000	10 : 1

Buy my Warrant Calculator so that you can determine the premium for a warrant easily. Only RM30 for first year!