Bye bye 2005

Time flies, this is my 4th year in share trading and this is the worst year I had. I guess you can say that I'm in my own mini-bear situation. Many stocks that I had has reduced in value like the great Malaysian sales. Playing in 2nd or 3rd liner and warrants is a dangerous game. Dreams are shattered. Wounds are so deep it will take some time to heal.

I have change a lot since I first buying share. I started out as an investor. Turn greedy and becomes a speculator, suffered tremendously and now slowly becoming a smart trader.

I was out of work for a few months, it was a blessing in disguise. It gave me time to think what have gone wrong. I found out that it was due to a combination of wrong techniques, false hope, couldn't sit tight, short sightedness and refusal to cut lost. I guess that I was lucky as I didn't go bankrupt. I considere myself to be lucky as I found a technique that suits my style before all my capital is depleted. So now I'm crawling back, slowly getting back the capital that has been lost.

How effective is my new found technique? Well, lets see
Closed out winners: RHB, Carotech, Huatlai-WA
Closed out losers: Timecom, OSKvi, THGroup-WA, Carotech, MBFCorp
(I didn't list out losers that are due to previous bad techniques)

The amount won is slightly more that the amount lost. Well, I consider this to be good as the KLCI index has been sliding during the time I used this new technique. I have learn how to cut lost and now it seems that I'm already numb to it already. Bad trades are just like a organ with cancer, you cut it off so that it won't effect other parts (which is your ability to trade)

I'm still holding:
D&O (slightly negative, not yet reach cut lost)
Kurasia (enough to pay commission)
MTDInfr-WA (threatening my cut lost level, but still believe in my analysis)
Flonic (above breakeven)

Well, it is still a long way to becoming a good trader. I have no sifu, so everything have to learn from books. Currently reading two great books:
Market Wizards: Interviews With Top Traders by Jack D. Schwager
Trading Rules: Strategies for Success by William F. Eng

Very interesting books both of them. One new thing that I have learned from the book by Eng is that every trade is consits of 3 parts: analysis, execution and management.
Well I give myself a B in analysis, C in execution and a D in management.

That's why I missed out in Farmbes, LHH and should have earn more in Huatlai-WA.

Okailah, Happy New Year to whoever that is reading this. May we have better harvest in 2006.

LHH, Huatlai-WA, Flonic

I took the oppurtunity to sell Huatlai-wa. My intepretation of the chart does not indicate that it will go higher that 0.285. In fact 0.255 is the maximum retracement level before continuing down to under 0.20. I may be wrong. I realised that the mother share volume is too low for me to make any conclusion as it can be easily manipulated.

The movement of Huatlai is almost random. This chicken just jump here and there. I'm tired of this type of movement. Cannot analyse it properly, so better stay out :p (until better volume)

In contrast of Huatlai, LHH zoom up again. This chicken can really run fast. If you have tried to catch an actual chicken, you'll know that chicken can run really fast. The best time to catch 'em is in the evening when they are going to bed. It's my fault for not monitoring closely this counter when it was still not running. Anyway, it gap up and overbought now. If there is a correction to close the gap, then I will try to catch it. Otherwise, just forget about it. The risk is too high as I cannot set a proper stop level.

Concerning Flonic, looks like there is strong support for this counter and with good chance it can reach 1.00 (the actual target is 1.03 based on Elliot Wave + Fibonacci)

Talking about Elliot and Fibonacci, I just (actually yesterday) noticed that if the waves are formed properly, then with high percentage it follows the Fibonacci computed target (=- a few cents). Amazing isn't it? I guess the big boys are using it.

Oh yes, I finally understand Elliot wave theory. Still not good in drawing extended wave, but only the basic waves. I guess that it will increase my chances in share trading.

Huatlai, LHH, Impress, Flonic

I'm changing my chicken target. Huatlai seems to have broke the uptrend support. So time to get out from my Huatlai-WA. But I just notice another chicken may be running: Leong Hup (LHH). LHH may be in the process of carving out Wave 3 with a possible target of RM1.75 (ok...I finally understand the elliot wave target :p). Is LHH moving up because of increase in chicken price or due to the private placement?

Impress got my attention also. Currently overbought based on daily charts. Waiting for the correction to enter.

Meanwhile Flonic closed lower today. RM0.90 could be the end of Wave 3 with correction to follow soon. Daily RSI is overbought. If it is possible to overcome RM0.90, then expect it to hit RM1.00.

Other counters that I am watching are OSK, Iris and N2N.

Merry Christmas to all that are reading this!

D&O and Flonic

These are electronic sector counter. Read reports that the world electronic industry is reviving.

From my intepretation of the chart for both counters, they are still in uptrend. D&O may be experiencing some consolidation now but long term prospect still good. Most probably good support at 0.50 region. The movement of this share is extremely slow. So lots of patience are needed.

For Flonic, it is in uptrend since day 1. The price keeps increasing even though the directors are reducing their stake. An entrapment?

Huat-beh-lai?

The "syndicate" is ruthless. The warrant price has been pushed down with great speed and I have no time to react to it. If I use the Elliot wave count, then the warrant high of 0.285 may be the end of the uptrend. It hit my stop lost and thus I have reduce some of my holding. I wished that Bursa Malaysia will implement an auto stop lost system so that speculators can have better reactions. Anyhow, I will sell the rest during the bear rally.

Huatlai seems to be resting at the uptrend channel drawn from 0.69. Since the daily MACD has moved into negative territory, I do not expect it to go higher in this week. However, if it can still close above 0.90 during this month, I will restrategize my plan for Huatlai-WA

The whole market behaving badly. Any rally should be treated as a bear-rally and it is a good oppurtunity to sell off losing shares.

Huatlai

[The chart will be posted when I can get proper access of the blog]

Seems like it has formed the reverse H&S formation and has broken out of the neckline. Closing above 1.00 will confirm the breakout. If close above 1.00, the price target will be 1.15/1.65. Daily RSI still not yet overbought but above 60. I expect more upside. Weekly RSI is still below 60. Thus, it is still too early to say that trend change has occurred but I’m betting on it to go higher. Immediate support is at 0.90.

Now, if the above happens, then my focus will be Huatlai-WA (RM1.00/ 27 Mar 2010). Weekly and daily chart says it is very overbought. If Huatlai can reach it’s price objective, then the warrant objective can be anywhere from 0.40 to 0.90. Immediate support is at 0.20.

Will this coming Chinese New Year, “huat” will “lai”?

I have some open position. My strategy is to add some more when Huatlai closes above 1.00.

Frequency of Trading

Well, sometimes I get a comment on why there are no updates for my blog.

The truth is with the system I'm using, there is hardly many counters for me to trade. That's why sometimes I don't have anything to blog about. I have found that by identifying which counter not to trade, I would have save myself the trouble of losing my money to the market and to my broker.

Trading less has it's benefits. It is less stressful. It gives you more time for yourself. That's what we want in life isn't it? We want to be free from the daily chores. We want to play golf, watch a movie or be with our family when everyone else is chasing and back stabbing in the crazy rat race. That is what I want in life.

So trade less and enjoy life!

Cut cut cut

I cut cut cut. Last week was bloody bad. What to do? Carotech, MBFCorp and Thgroup are out. They are not behaving as I expect them to do.

My analysis says CPO price going to drop. So plantation stocks will suffer.

New found target: Huatlai-WA. Another chicken run?

Added some Mtdinfr-wa. Capital announcement out. But price did not jump. Aiyah, how to sell?

Kurasia still behaving as it should.

OSKvi rallies after 10 days I sold them. Sial!