New blogs

I'm starting 2 new blogs:

1. Trading In HKEX
2. Trading In SGX

The names of the blog explained it all. Yes, finally I managed to open an account to trade in these 2 markets. I will only concentrate on the warrants that are listed in these markets. My decision to use new URL is to separate the counters as most of you all may not want to read trading ideas for other markets.

I have not written anything yet in the new blogs. Currently, I am modifying my Bursa Malaysia Warrant Calculator to include the warrant database for those 2 exchanges. The new database will be available free-of-charge for those that bought calculator software.

The past week, I was busy in updating my EOD database for SGX, HKEX, SSE and SZE market. Getting the list of listed counters took some Googling. Fortunately, I was able to find it. With the list of counters, I wrote my own program to download it from Yahoo. You may think that I am a cheapskate. You must know, I'm running on a shoe-string budget. Every cents saved will be used for my speculative activities.

Anyhow, if you want to follow my new blogs, you will need to subscribe to it. That's all.

KLCI Buy Signal

KLCI Daily Chart

Looks like KLCI has given a buy signal with a possible challenge of 1290.

New Call Warrants

6 new call warrants from CIMB will be listed on 29 Dec 2009:

New Warrants	Expiration	Type	Ex Price	Ratio
CAPLAND-C2	15/04/2011	Call	SGD 4.1000	12 : 1
WILMAR-C3	15/04/2011	Call	SGD 6.0000	25 : 1
TANJONG-CA	15/04/2011	Call	MYR 15.0000	20 : 1
HLBANK-CA	15/04/2011	Call	MYR 8.0000	8 : 1
GAMUDA-CK	15/04/2011	Call	MYR 2.5500	3 : 1
CHLIFE-C6	15/04/2011	Call	HKD 39.5000	20 : 1

I wonder why CIMB still refused to issue any put warrants. Any insider stories?

Anyhow, you can get this update done for you automatically by using my Bursa Malaysia Warrant Calculator.

Commodity Summary

Correction in gold is still not yet over. Crude oil has given a buy signal. Will it close above 80 next week? CPO and rough rice uptrend seems to be taking a rest. I think that the US dollar rebound should come to an end by this coming week. If that is the case, then we should see the rally in commodities to resume soon.

Commodity	Monthly	Weekly	Daily
Gold	Up	Neutral (-)	Neutral
Crude Oil	Up	Up (+)	Up (+)
Crude Palm Oil	Up	Up	Neutral (-)
Rough Rice	Up	Up	Neutral (-)

World Weekly Summary

Most markets kind of had a Christmas rally. I'm expecting a correction for the US market, however, it continues to push higher. Maybe the power of printing money will overcome all obstacles continuing losses in the housing market. Well, this is why you need more than fundamental analysis to win in the market. Your theory may be right, but when your timing is wrong, you will still lose money.

World	Monthly	Weekly	Daily	Note
S&P500	Up	Up	Up (+)	R=1.12k, S=1.01k
DJI	Up	Up	Up (+)	R=11k.
NasdaqComp	Up	Up	Up	R=2.18k
Nikkei 225	Neutral	Up	Up	Next R=11k
Kospi	Up	Up	Up	R=1.9k.
SSECI	Up	Neutral (-)	Neutral	R=3.5k. S=2.6k. Finding base.
HSI	Up	Neutral	Down	R=23.5k, S=20k.
TWII	Up	Up	Up (+)	R=7.9k. S=7k
STI	Up	Up	Up	R=2.8k. S-2.52k
JKSE	Up	Up	Neutral (-)	R=2.5k. S=2.3k
SENSEX	Up	Up	Up (+)	R=17.6k
AORD	Up	Up (+)	Up (+)	R=4.9k
NZX50	Up	Up	Up (+)	R=3.2k
FTSE	Up	Up	Up (+)	R=5.4k
DAX	Up	Up	Up	R=6.15k
RTSI	Up	Up	Up	R=1.5k
Bovespa	Up	Up	Neutral	R=66k

Bursa Malaysia Weekly Summary

Market is still range bound with downside bias. There is still no strong uptrend or downtrend movement.

Malaysia	Monthly	Weekly	Daily	Note
FBM KLCI	Up	Up	Neutral (-)	R=1.3k, S=1.2k.
Finance	Up	Up	Neutral (-)	R=11k, S=9.5k.
Construction	Up	Neutral	Down (-)	R=250, S=220. Serious correction
Plantation	Up	Up	Neutral (-)	R=6.4k, S=5.8k.
Property	Up	Neutral	Neutral (+)	R=820, S=760. Correction

International Reserves of BNM

Date	MYR (billion)	USD (billion)
30-Nov-09	334.9	96.1
15-Dec-09	335.1	96.2

Source.

6 New Call Warrants

6 new call warrants will be listed on 22/12/2009. All from CIMB:

New Warrants	Expiration	Type	Ex Price	Ratio
SPSETIA-CB	31/03/2011	Call	MYR 3.5000	4 : 1
PETROCH-CB	31/03/2011	Call	HKD 9.0000	8 : 1
CMA-C1	31/03/2011	Call	SGD 2.4000	8 : 1
ICBC-CA	31/03/2011	Call	HKD 6.6000	4 : 1
HKEX-CD	31/03/2011	Call	HKD 130.0000	100 : 1
CNOOC-C6	31/03/2011	Call	HKD 11.3000	10 : 1

Remember, you can purchase my Bursa Malaysia Warrant Calculator if you are too lazy to maintain the warrant database.

World Weekly Summary

Still a directionless trading environment.

World	Monthly	Weekly	Daily	Note
S&P500	Up	Up	Neutral (-)	R=1.12k, S=1.01k
DJI	Up	Up	Neutral (-)	R=11k.
NasdaqComp	Up	Up	Up	R=2.18k
Nikkei 225	Neutral	Up (+)	Up (+)	Next R=11k
Kospi	Up	Up	Up	R=1.9k.
SSECI	Up	Up	Neutral	R=3.5k. S=2.6k. Finding base.
HSI	Up	Neutral (-)	Down (-)	R=23.5k, S=20k.
TWII	Up	Up	Neutral (-)	R=7.9k. S=7k
STI	Up	Up	Up	R=2.8k. S-2.52k
JKSE	Up	Up	Up	R=2.5k. S=2.3k
SENSEX	Up	Up	Neutral (-)	R=17.6k
AORD	Up	Neutral	Down	R=4.9k
NZX50	Up	Up (+)	Neutral (+)	R=3.2k
FTSE	Up	Up	Neutral	R=5.4k
DAX	Up	Up	Up	R=6.15k
RTSI	Up	Up	Up (+)	R=1.5k
Bovespa	Up	Up	Neutral (-)	R=66k

Bursa Malaysia Weekly Summary

The market is still going nowhere. If I want to add positions, then I'll look into plantation sector.

Malaysia	Monthly	Weekly	Daily	Note
FBM KLCI	Up	Up	Up (+)	R=1.3k, S=1.2k.
Finance	Up	Up	Up (+)	R=11k, S=9.5k.
Construction	Up	Neutral	Neutral (+)	R=250, S=220. Serious correction
Plantation	Up	Up	Up (+)	R=6.4k, S=5.8k.
Property	Up	Neutral	Down	R=820, S=760. Correction

Balance Budget

2010 budget passed with razor thin majority of 65-63?

I came across this graph that shows the budget as a percentage of the GDP.

We can see that we are in a bad situation (far right of the graph). In my opinion, this shows that our economy is badly managed. With oil money, we still manage to do badly. Where has the money gone to?

In 2 more years (or less), we shall be going to the polls. I know what I need to do. A balanced budget can only be achieved when we efficiently make use of our limited money. That means no corruption, no over paying and no favoritism.

If we continue this destructive path, we shall saddle our children with a debt that they cannot pay. You need to decide on what action you are going to take now because the consequence of making the wrong choice will take many generations to correct.

Weekly Commodity Summary

USD rebounds, crude oil and gold goes down. The DX futures chart indicate that the rebound is not strong, therefore, I expect that gold and crude oil should stop sliding ...maybe by this week.

One interesting thing in the commodity world is that agriculture commodity is strong even though USD goes up.

Commodity	Monthly	Weekly	Daily
Gold	Up	Up	Neutral (-)
Crude Oil	Up	Neutral (-)	Down
Crude Palm Oil	Up	Up	Up
Rough Rice	Up	Up	Up

World Weekly Summary

Up down up down up down. Still no clear trend. Tough to make money except for the day traders. The only thing for me to do is to wait.

World	Monthly	Weekly	Daily	Note
S&P500	Up	Up	Up	R=1.12k, S=1.01k
DJI	Up	Up	Up (+)	R=11k.
NasdaqComp	Up	Up	Up	R=2.18k
Nikkei 225	Neutral	Neutral (+)	Neutral	Next R=11k
Kospi	Up	Up (+)	Up (+)	R=1.9k.
SSECI	Up	Up	Neutral (-)	R=3.5k. S=2.6k. Finding base.
HSI	Up	Up	Neutral (-)	R=23.5k, S=20k.
TWII	Up	Up	Up	R=7.9k. S=7k
STI	Up	Up	Up	R=2.8k. S-2.52k
JKSE	Up	Up	Up	R=2.5k. S=2.3k
SENSEX	Up	Up	Up	R=17.6k
AORD	Up	Neutral (-)	Down (-)	R=4.9k
NZX50	Up	Neutral	Down (-)	R=3.2k
FTSE	Up	Up	Neutral (-)	R=5.4k
DAX	Up	Up	Up	R=6.15k
RTSI	Up	Up	Neutral	R=1.5k
Bovespa	Up	Up	Up	R=66k

Bursa Malaysia Weekly Summary

I must admit that none of my trade ideas are working currently. Bullish don't work, bearish also don't work. The market is not going anywhere.

Malaysia	Monthly	Weekly	Daily	Note
FBM KLCI	Up	Up	Neutral (-)	R=1.3k, S=1.2k.
Finance	Up	Up	Neutral	R=11k, S=9.5k.
Construction	Up	Neutral	Down	R=250, S=220. Serious correction
Plantation	Up	Up	Neutral (-)	R=6.4k, S=5.8k.
Property	Up	Neutral	Down	R=820, S=760. Correction

New Call Warrants

6 new call warrants from CIMB was listed on 11 Dec 2009:

New Warrants	Expiration	Type	Ex Price	Ratio
BJCORP-CA	28/02/2011	Call	MYR 1.1500	2 : 1
WCT-CA	28/02/2011	Call	MYR 2.4000	3 : 1
UEMLAND-CA	28/02/2011	Call	MYR 1.5000	3 : 1
PARKSON-CA	28/02/2011	Call	MYR 5.2500	6 : 1
BJTOTO-CF	28/02/2011	Call	MYR 4.0000	3 : 1
AFFIN-CA	28/02/2011	Call	MYR 2.4500	3 : 1

Meanwhile, KIBB will issue 4 new call warrants that will be listed on 14 Dec 2009:

New Warrants	Expiration	Type	Ex Price	Ratio
IJM-CD	10/12/2010	Call	MYR 4.4000	5 : 1
TENAGA-CO	10/12/2010	Call	MYR 8.0200	7 : 1
IOICORP-CN	10/12/2010	Call	MYR 5.2800	5 : 1
AXIATA-CE	10/12/2010	Call	MYR 3.0600	4 : 1

International Reserves of BNM

Date	MYR (billion)	USD (billion)
13-Nov-09	334.8	96.1
30-Nov-09	334.9	96.1

Source.

KNM

KNM Daily Chart

The last time that I blogged about this counter, I was looking into going long. However, the buy signal did not work out. Now, this counter has given a sell signal.

Disclosure: Short.

Weekly Commodity Summary

Commodity	Monthly	Weekly	Daily
Gold	Up	Up	Up
Crude Oil	Up	Up	Down
Crude Palm Oil	Up (+)	Up	Up
Rough Rice	Up	Up	Up

Strong correction for gold last Friday, however, the trend is still up. Only crude oil is the weakest. The USD has rebounded strongly. I'm still bearish on USD and bullish on commodities.

World Weekly Summary

SSECI Monthly Chart

SSECI: looks like it is going to challenge 3500.

Looking at the various world markets:

World	Monthly	Weekly	Daily	Note
S&P500	Up	Up	Up (+)	R=1.12k, S=1.01k
DJI	Up	Up	Neutral (-)	R=11k.
NasdaqComp	Up	Up	Up (+)	R=2.18k
Nikkei 225	Neutral	Down	Neutral (+)	Next R=11k
Kospi	Up	Neutral	Neutral (+)	R=1.9k.
SSECI	Up	Up	Up (+)	R=3.5k. S=2.6k. Finding base.
HSI	Up	Up (+)	Up (+)	R=23.5k, S=20k.
TWII	Up	Up	Up (+)	R=7.9k. S=7k
STI	Up	Up	Up	R=2.8k. S-2.52k
JKSE	Up	Up (+)	Up (+)	R=2.5k. S=2.3k
SENSEX	Up	Up	Up (+)	R=17.6k
AORD	Up	Up (+)	Up (+)	R=4.9k
NZX50	Up	Neutral	Neutral (+)	R=3.2k
FTSE	Up	Up	Up (+)	R=5.4k
DAX	Up	Up (+)	Up (+)	R=6.15k
RTSI	Up	Up	Neutral	R=1.5k
Bovespa	Up	Up	Up	R=66k

I see that most markets have recovered from the Dubai selldown.

Bursa Malaysia Weekly Summary

FBM KLCI Weekly Chart

Still at around the same place for 7 weeks now. I'm expecting for the big sell, but it is not coming. Looks like the market is frustrating both the bull and the bear.

Malaysia	Monthly	Weekly	Daily	Note
FBM KLCI	Up	Up	Up (+)	R=1.3k, S=1.2k.
Finance	Up	Up	Neutral	R=11k, S=9.5k.
Construction	Up	Neutral	Down	R=250, S=220. Serious correction
Plantation	Up	Up	Up	R=6.4k, S=5.8k.
Property	Up	Neutral	Down	R=820, S=760. Correction

Looking at the various sectors, the strongest is the plantation. I think that if KLCI is going to go up, it will have to rely on the plantation counters for the push.

Andy Xie Interview

FT interviewed Andy Xie.

Part 1 of 3

Part 2 of 3

Part 3 of 3