Bull vs Bear (27 Aug 2007)

Bull vs Bear

The bulls are gaining ground. Play has rotated from oil&gas, to IDR to HK CW. Bluechips, finance, plantation and mesdaq are still consolidating.

I will try to post the chart daily. A few things to note:
1. I only clean my database once a few weeks, so some delisted counter will be included in the statistic until I have have deleted it.
2. I depend on www.bizfun.cc for the share split/repayment adjustment. So a bull may become a bear until I have made the necessary adjustment.

Bull vs Bear (24 Aug 2007)

Bull vs Bear

My Excel chart goes haywire when I install the Office 2007 compatibility pack. I hate it the environment that I'm so used to it are changed.

Anyway, the chart shows that the bearish counters has dropped tremendously. Based on my reading of the weekly technical chart, I think that we are heading for a "Budget rebound" since the weekly chart still shows bearishness.

KLCI (23 Aug 2007)

KLCI Daily Chart

Strong rebound. Gap at 1255-1270. For long term uptrend to continue, the index must shoot pass 1300 and then consolidate and built up another based at 1300.

Current resistant is at around 1300 (many trend lines intersect there). I'm still staying sideline due to the bearish divergence in the weekly chart and also no good buy signal from my filter. Looking out the behaviour of the index when it reaches 14-day RSI value 60. If it cannot break this value, then it indicate that the bear has set up an ambush.

Mind the Gap

Strong rebound indeed. I still don't have any buy signal. So I'm still staying sideline. My indicators just don't work when the volatility is high. Anyway, there is a big gap at 1255-1270.

I'm monitoring the China listed CWs.Hopefully I can hop into a few.

KLCI (17 Aug 2007)

Daily chart is shown. Just manage to close above the uptrend line that was formed from 900. Long shadow hammer may indicate a rebound. This will be confirmed with a white candle. If a rebound happens, the upper resistance will be around 1250. With everything so oversold, I am expecting a rebound. But the weekly indicators are really bad, so the rebound should be weak. Technically, the uptrend is still intact if one view from the monthly chart.

Worst is Over?

I got a feeling that the worst is over. The monthly 20EMA has provided a support (typo in my previous post). Hopefully nobody is in panic anymore. Tried to buy Kencana, cannot get. Looking for other battered counters.

DJI

Dow goes down and down. HK, Malaysia and other markets follow. I guess everyone is seeing ghost now. Did anyone remember the prediction made by Tuo Pek Kong during CNY in Penang. Mann...bulls eye.

When will DJI stabilizes? Looking at the chart, it has broken the weekly uptrend line. The next major support can be obtained from the monthly chart and it is around 12100. So still a long way to go.

Maybe it the spirit of Malaysia Boleh, we can stabilize at 1200.

Short

My bull vs bear chart is shown. From the daily numbers, the bear outnumber the bull by 27 to 1.

Too bad that in Bursa Malaysia, there is mostly one way play. That is to buy and sell higher. The other way, to sell and buy lower is not available to most of the people. Well, technically one can short, but I don't know the process well, furthermore, the cost of doing this is not cheap. An alternative is to play the KLCI futures. Hmm...I have done that a few years back, did badly, the psychological scar is still in me.

What can I do but to sit and watch. The "consolidation" is not yet completed.

HWGB

Is it going to be pushed up? So many false start, will this for real? Downtrend channel resistance at around 0.34. I think that the play will be confirmed if it can close above 0.28.

KLCI (10 Aug 2007)

Weekly chart shown. Stochastic shows that it still have room to go down. If it closes below 1284, the next support will be at 1143 (monthly 30EMA line). This value is too extreme. Hopefully I'm wrong. The best thing one can do is to sit and watch what happens when the weekly stochastic is oversold or weekly 14RSI is around the 40s. Theoretically, if the bull is still alive, the index should u-turn at around 40s level for the weekly 14RSI.

CI (3 Aug 2007)

Weekly chart shown. Weekly RSI uptrend broken. Bearish RSI divergence detected. Parabolic SAR says sell. This week, CI found support at the 20EMA. Based on my theory, if this is broken, then expect it to go to 30EMA (currently at 1284). I'm expecting this to happen as the daily RSI has penetrated the 40 level and the daily stochastic is not oversold yet. Currently, the chart does not show any sign that the bottom has been found.

This consolidation may take up to 2-4 months to clear (if bull is strong). I am looking to resume business only for year-end window dressing or CNY rally or election rally.

KLSE Bull vs Bear

The chart shows the number of bulls vs bears (based on my definition) using different period filter. It's ain't pretty.

Extreme Pessimism

Since the day I kept records for the up/down ratio:
27 Feb 2007 Up = 42, Down = 1123. This is the day the index starts the correction from 1273 to 1090.

5 Mar 2007 Up = 42, Down = 1110. This is the day the index touches 1090 and recovers to 1392.

1 Aug 2007 Up = 57, Down = 1032.

Only two samples. No conclusion.

Support & Resistance

Okaylah, let me clarify a little bit how I view support and resistance since there were some comments on it.

Actually, I do not really look at vertical support and resistance. What I look at is EMA support and resistance. This will give me the confidence to either stay with the trend or get out. The best one is to look at weekly EMA, but this requires a strong psychology to stand deep correction (I'm not quite good at this).

Next I look at the curve of the EMA, the best curve (which I intepret it as strong trending) is when all of the different time period moves up from a single point. The tighter the point, the better. I learned this technique from Daryl Guppy. So, even if the singular point is near the vertical resistance, I still go in. However, I will not go in if it is under the weekly trendline.

I'm not doing well this pass month because I was too eager to place a trade. This is a discipline problem. To add salt to my wound, the movement of stocks are too fast. They go up very fast, they go down very fast. So I have problem managing my position. I am back to my old ways now, that is to wait for the perfect set up before entering. Concerning the method to manage my position, I'm still searching.

KLCI weekly chart

Hmm....I'm pretty a laggard person. I always detect a trend when it is too late.....it is probably cause by the lagging indicators that I emphasis on.No good, no good. MACD goes deeper into negative territory. RSI shows downtrend. Stochastic is still in overbought but weakening. EMA still mean bull but the bull is tired. With weakness in Dow Jones, the bears should be able to push down more easily as the bulls are having a confident crisis.

Conclusion: I will avoid buying index component stocks and if I am in in any but without profit, then I will believe that it is better get out first to protect capital.

Analysis Sektor: Papan Kedua

Sudah lama tidak tulis dalam Bahasa Malaysia. Nampaknya penguasaan Bahasa saya sudah koyak. Mungkin sudah lama tak baca Berita Harian atau Dewan Masyarakat. Macam mana ni, bulan Merdeka, mestilah cuba sikit untuk menunjukkan semangat patriotik saya.
Carta harian menampakan kelemahan jangka pendek kerana MACD sudah masuk ke zon negatif. Mungkin sokongan pada tahap 114 (EMA30 - garis coklat)

Carta mingguan menunjukkan kemungkinan kelemahan pada kaunter-kaunter papan kedua. Lilin doji bermakna lembu jantan dan beruang sama kuat. Belum pasti lagi. Minggu depan akan tahu.

Menuju ke carta bulanan pula, ia menunjukkan lembu jantan masih gagah. Tahap RSI di lingkungan 60an bermakna lembu jantan ini masih lagi ada tenaga bergerak ke atas. Tetapi masih ada 2 hari lagi ke akhir bulan. Jadi intepretasi ini masih belum muktamat.

Kesimpulan: Masih lagi boleh main kaunter-kaunter papan kedua. Tetapi mesti berwaspada. Dow Jones jatuh lagi 200 mata, apa akan terjadi pada minggu depan?

Plus

Plus is still moving up to challenge the previous high. Can it or not break? Plus-CA is about 10 cents undervalue. That is why I jump into Plus-CA.

Spolymr & Hil

Got out of Spolymr due to the miscalculated Spolymr/Supermx arbitrage value. Also got out of Bjtoto-CA and TM-CC.

Hil looks stronger than I expected. So got back in.

Still riding on Ftec and Oilcorp.

BOC

Looks like a possible new uptrend is in the making. That is why I added BOC-C1.

Supermx & Spolymr II

I'm in back in Spolymr. I got only until 31 Jul to play this counter. 50% acceptance received by Supermx. Suddenly, Supermx price has broken a new high. So theoretically, Spolymr should worth about 16 cents more (based on Supermx current price of 2.66). Hopefully, this is not a one day event and Supermx can maintain the uptrend.

I'm hoping that some fund manager will play this arbitrage opportunity.