No Volatility

The magic hand should not artificially support the market at the last minute. If it don't drop, it can't go up. No volatility, no trading. Volume is terribly low. If you wanna get out, tough luck as no buyers are willing to take it from you. Sideways market is a terrible time to play the warrants. You will just be killed by time decay.

I think it is time to introduce call and put in Malaysia. This will definitely make the market more lively. Why nobody is taking this path?

Boiling slowly

Hard to play. The market refuse to give you the profit. Loss in AMMB-CA, breakeven in Mems, took some profit from Masteel.

The market seems to be slowly sinking. Sometimes I'm torn between fundamental and technical. For instance Notion, making money, but appreciating MYR is eating into its profit. The stock sinking slowly. Hold on or sell?

It is easy to play when a stock has no fundamental. When the technical says sells, it is a sell. No more second guessing.

Show Face

What a show, very long shadow candle. A possible sign of short term reversal.

Next week, big guns going to Singapore to talk to big fund managers. So, we should have a rally next week. You can't sell if it is red, correct? The question is: If there is a push, will the push be sustained?

KLCI & Kretam

Everyone knows the market will correct but not when. But one old man repeats what everyone has been saying, the market suddenly realize that it is time to correct.

A look at the KLCI weekly chart shows that it is drifting lower with low volume. Nobody dares to buy, so easy to push it down. Lets see whether 1328 can be supported. If not, look for the index to go to 1200 to 1250.

Even though the general market is bad, some counters can still defy gravity. Ranhill went up the hill too fast too much. I manage to release a little bit. Now waiting for it to settle down. If got the chance, I will reload it. But first must see what are the long term players going to do with this counter.

Today, everyone is playing THGroup. Aiyoh, I shall leave this counter alone. Some counters always not kind to me. Always loose. THGroup is one of them.

AMMB very volatile. Up and down. Looks like AMMB-CA is not working out.

Looking at the CPO chart, looks like it is still going up. Will this mean plantation counters going to be played again? Will they defy the general market? I still have one plantation counter in my portfolio. Same case like L&G, trap until now. Never manage to sell when it goes up. The counter is Kretam-WA. 1 year 6 months to go. A look at Kretam weekly chart shows that the uptrend is still intact. This week, it gave a buy signal but with a gap up after announcing good result. The daily RSI indicates that it should break the short term resistance. If it can do that, I think my Kretam-WA can go up a little bit more. I added some Kretam-WA today as I though that Kretam will close up higher after 2 days of consolidation. Unfortunately, not really to my expectation. Anyhow, let's see whether it works out or not.

Fun to be a Hedge Fund Manager

This is the thing that keeps my dream burning :p

Worth A Lot, but Are Hedge Funds Worth It?

Supermx & Spolymr

The story is like this. Supermx is proposing to privatize Spolymr. Some genius comes out with a complex formula for the exchange of Spolymr shares into Supermx + some cash.

The whole deal values Spolymr at RM1.10 where it is assume that Supermx is valued at RM2.50.Supermx gives a buy signal a few days ago. Looks like it got the potential to break the previous high of 2.58. Unfortunately, Spolymr is not moving much (yet?). Why? I don't know. Anyhow, Spolymr also gives a buy signal now.

This is like a warrant play, for every 1 cents increase in Supermx, Spolymr should increase proportionally. The idea is to ride on the bullishness of Supermx. But must sell before the whole deal is complete. If not, one will end up with odd lots of Supermx.

That is why I added another position on Spolymr. I hope that this play will work out.

Overseas Structured Warrant

OSK is introducing structured warrant from Hong Kong. Wow, now I can diversified a little bit. HKEx stock codes can be found here. There is a link to the stock price too. I have been collecting HKEx data since 2005 from eoddata.com. Not very complete as I need at least 5 years for a thorough analysis, but sufficient enough to play for short term. Any reader knows where I can get free historical data for this exchange beside the one I mentioned?

The waiting continues...

Everyone is waiting for the correction. The trillion yuan question is when? Is today's brief correction a correction?

Stock market is a play among the suckers. Who will be the last sucker? How many million suckers are there in a population of 1.3 billion?

Will the market crash when the Olympic is only a year away? Do you want to see a gloomy Olympic?

If you expect it to correct severely, what will you do when the time arrives? Buy, sell or wait & see?

Many possible scenarios. It's best to rehearse this in your mind so that you are prepared for it. Don't react but act when it comes.

AMMB

Still trying to break the record high of 4.22. Strong buying by some big fund during the day but it disappeared suddenly towards the close. The weekly MACD bearish divergence may have been broken but this can only be confirmed if the price closes above 4.22.

I took another position in AMMB-CA hoping that the selling force at 4.22 will dissipate by the end of this week.

Sideways

Looks like my speculation that market will be pushed higher due to good 1Q result is wrong. Nobody is willing to push the price higher as their are very smart now. No one wants to become the greater fool. Everyone is waiting for China market to crash so that they may buy at a more attractive price.

Volume continue to shrink. Let's wait until after the final of the Champions League. Maybe market will come alive after that just like last year.

China Money

Pick up this story from MarketWatch.com

"...the China Banking Regulatory Commission, in an attempt to cool its overheated stock market, had ruled that Chinese banks "can now invest as much as 50 percent of funds in overseas stock markets."

Where will the money go?

Property, Plantation, Mesdaq

Property: A troubling look. A bearish reversal candle?
Plantation: Looks toppish. No idea how to interpret.
Mesdaq: Still going down. Will be staying away from Mesdaq counters.

KLCI, Finance, Construction

KLCI: Possible weekly bearish divergent. No power liao. Low selling volume. Are we going to sink slowly? 1300 must be supported. If not, things will get ugly.
Finance: Still going up. No sign of trouble yet but volume is also strinking.

Construction: A possible doji? Weekly MACD going into negative territory.

Luck

I bought Samudra during the last buy signal and got trap for a long time (1 month without moving is consider long by my standard). Just like Ranhill, no luck. You thought that the setup was perfect, then it falls back and but it refuse to hit your stop. You wait and wait and wait while it gives you one after other false buy/sell signal. Oscillating here and there. Then you decided to sell, and this time the share zoom up!

So sometimes one need luck.

AMMB & Samudra

Wrong analysis on Commerz. Or is it my stop was too tight? Another missed opportunity.

I'm in AMMB-CA now. The rational is AMMB may break old high of 4.22. Daily chart all turns up. Long term is still in uptrend. Hopefully, 0.155 was the bottom of AMMB-CA.

The bulls are pushing Samudra again. Another false rally? Luck is not with me for this counter.

Volume is getting lower each day. Time to read books to improve oneself.

Ranhill

I bought this counter when it broke the downtrend channel. Unfortunately, it goes into correction mode afterwards. Still holding until today. In fact, I added another position hoping that this time the buy signal will propel it higher. If can close above 1.39, then should see more action.

Commerz, TM & L&G

Got stop out with Commerz-CC & TM-CC. Commerz got sell down even good result. Not a good sign. For L&G, I decided to sell all. Trap for 4 years, story ends today. Just manage to earn a little bit.

Commerz

Wah lau eh. Look at Commerz latest result. Superb. I don't know much about accounting, so not sure what is inside. Anyway, I think that Commerz price will overtake Maybank soon. Does this means that Commerz is going to replace Maybank as the leader in the banking industry?

Tips

Just to make it clear, I'm no fan of Dali or Sam. It feels funny these bloggers can have fans like singers or actors. I wish I have a large fan based, then ever time I disclose my buying, the price will jump up to give me a comfortable margin. Unfortunately, every time I buy and disclose it, the price goes down some more :p

Anyway, lets talk about tips. I do go through other blogs to see the sentiments of other traders/investors. Hmm...seems like the number of tips are more each day. Many M&A tips. I'm not sure how many times one can win on tip but my experience was terrible. Looking at these tips, I think market will get hotter as the main players are spreading news to entice the crowd to buy. When the tip fever goes sky high with sky high volume, then one should consider to sell. Well I think that after May, I do not see any so call positive "news" to push up the market anymore. By the way, I have a good history of missing most of the rally, so maybe I'm wrong.

New High...but where are the crowds?

KLCI index hit new high. But the volume is low. Remisiers are complaining. Tactician is not impress. Why like this?

Okay, this is my theory.

You see, the unit trust industry in Malaysia has seen strong growth. How much money was manage by the industry in 1994 and now? I don't have the figure but it is surely manifold.

Now, due to the risk management policy, these unit trust must invest in so called companies with fundamentals. There are not hedge fund. So that is why you see blue chips and fundamental companies go up. You can't expect losing money companies to go up also. That is why the 3rd and lower liners are still laying like dead fish. Furthermore, the most recent February sell down really spook the retailers. Anyway, do you still remember while we were at 950, the push was done with low volume and everyone was also complaining.

So, more money are chasing quality stock and less money are left to play speculative ones.

If I look at the chart, I will be cautious but will still buy if a stock have good setup. From my uptrend lists, I detect that the lower liners are starting to move now. So, most probably we shall see some play on lower liners if the blues can just hang on to their gain.

For me, I'm still looking to play other covered warrants. My filter gives me the following uptrend stock with covered warrant:
AirAsia, AMMB, Astro, Bursa, Commerz, Digi, Maxis, Misc, Mplant, PBBank, Plus, TM, YTL

I'm in Commerz and TM. Still looking for the perfect setup to enter the rest.

Sell in May and....?

Everyone is waiting for the correction. Fear of China meltdown is in everyone's mind. Well, the truth is, when everyone is anticipating it, do you think will it happen? The market is always cruel to the market participants. It will always catch us with our pants down. I think that all short term players have already left the market in anticipation of correction. Only long term players left. If these long term players can push some more, sure it will draw back the short term players.

This time should be different, no football to distract our attention (hurray to AC Milan!). Foreign funds are back. Ringgit is appreciating. Election is coming. Furthermore, it is the reporting season in May. Good earnings will propel us further. The only thing that can halt this rally is something not in our mind. Not China, not carry trade, not subprime. If there is any sell down due to these, it should not be severe because they are old news liao. There must be something new to scare the shit out of us. That we will not know until...