KLCI weekly chart

Hmm....I'm pretty a laggard person. I always detect a trend when it is too late.....it is probably cause by the lagging indicators that I emphasis on.No good, no good. MACD goes deeper into negative territory. RSI shows downtrend. Stochastic is still in overbought but weakening. EMA still mean bull but the bull is tired. With weakness in Dow Jones, the bears should be able to push down more easily as the bulls are having a confident crisis.

Conclusion: I will avoid buying index component stocks and if I am in in any but without profit, then I will believe that it is better get out first to protect capital.

Analysis Sektor: Papan Kedua

Sudah lama tidak tulis dalam Bahasa Malaysia. Nampaknya penguasaan Bahasa saya sudah koyak. Mungkin sudah lama tak baca Berita Harian atau Dewan Masyarakat. Macam mana ni, bulan Merdeka, mestilah cuba sikit untuk menunjukkan semangat patriotik saya.
Carta harian menampakan kelemahan jangka pendek kerana MACD sudah masuk ke zon negatif. Mungkin sokongan pada tahap 114 (EMA30 - garis coklat)

Carta mingguan menunjukkan kemungkinan kelemahan pada kaunter-kaunter papan kedua. Lilin doji bermakna lembu jantan dan beruang sama kuat. Belum pasti lagi. Minggu depan akan tahu.

Menuju ke carta bulanan pula, ia menunjukkan lembu jantan masih gagah. Tahap RSI di lingkungan 60an bermakna lembu jantan ini masih lagi ada tenaga bergerak ke atas. Tetapi masih ada 2 hari lagi ke akhir bulan. Jadi intepretasi ini masih belum muktamat.

Kesimpulan: Masih lagi boleh main kaunter-kaunter papan kedua. Tetapi mesti berwaspada. Dow Jones jatuh lagi 200 mata, apa akan terjadi pada minggu depan?

Plus

Plus is still moving up to challenge the previous high. Can it or not break? Plus-CA is about 10 cents undervalue. That is why I jump into Plus-CA.

Spolymr & Hil

Got out of Spolymr due to the miscalculated Spolymr/Supermx arbitrage value. Also got out of Bjtoto-CA and TM-CC.

Hil looks stronger than I expected. So got back in.

Still riding on Ftec and Oilcorp.

BOC

Looks like a possible new uptrend is in the making. That is why I added BOC-C1.

Supermx & Spolymr II

I'm in back in Spolymr. I got only until 31 Jul to play this counter. 50% acceptance received by Supermx. Suddenly, Supermx price has broken a new high. So theoretically, Spolymr should worth about 16 cents more (based on Supermx current price of 2.66). Hopefully, this is not a one day event and Supermx can maintain the uptrend.

I'm hoping that some fund manager will play this arbitrage opportunity.

ICBC

Daily chart is shown. Looks like a possible uptrend channel is in the making. That is why I'm loading up with ICBC-C1. News report of possible 50% increase in profit. That explains the gap on the 10th of July. The gap is covered now. If can break the previous high of 5.22, then this could be a possible wave 3.

Increase turnover

Oh boy, my turnover increases substantially in the last 2 months. My brokers must be really happy. I have exited Hil but failed to exit Ngiukee-WA. Concerning Cresbldr-WA, luckily I got half out, it looks like it is back to square-one from my entry price. Still waiting for the right moment to enter (if there is one).

New counters that I bought last week are Hovid and HWGB. HWGB is another of my dark losses. This is so called fundamental share that I bought due to the recommendation of GKGoh 3 years ago. However, due to their disastrous adventure in Cambonia, the share just goes down and down. That is why I don't trust fundamental analysis that much. Since I can't and don't know how to do it properly, I just gave up doing it.

Historical Data

Bursa Malaysia counters historical data can now be accessed from Yahoo. They have from 2000 onwards. Looks like their are reestablished their support which they discontinued 4 years back. Does this indicate that we are back into the international spotlight?

Mix Management Result

Took profit on my Perisai because I bought too high from the base. So if there is any correction, I will be in a vulnerable position. Also took half profit for my Crestbld-wa because of the gap price. It has since covered it. Still looking.

I have yet again mismanage my position. A clash of long term view with short term analysis. What am I going to do with my TM-CC & Bjtoto-CC? Still trying to figure out from my journal what really happened in me.

Yesterday, I decided to buy Resorts-CC. But made the mistake of putting a limit order. I think that if you need to rush and grab for something, it is a sign of strong up move. Come to think of, most of my limit order position are just sitting or moving slowly. It is not bad, but not the swiftness that I'm looking for. Guess that sometimes I'm impatience.

Okay, I will do the following next time:

1. Limit order during consolidation of a up move.
   
2. Market order for up move in progress.

BOC

HKSE BOC got a big pushtoday. Downtrend, off course brokenlah. Daily chart is overbought. Weekly RSI is in the 60s. How much can it go? I have entered a small position in BOC-C1 because with this surge, BOC-C1 is in the money now.

Ngiukee

A break of downtrend? All weekly indicators are currently up. It's only Tuesday, so 3 more days to go for confirmation. My interest lies in the warrant. It's one of my dark losses. Don't ask me why I'm still hanging. Maybe to remind myself of ones vulnerability.

2nd Board

I cannot believe it. I didn't notice the 2nd board index because my attention was glued to the bluechips CW. The chart shows that it is rising steadily. Daily and weekly charts are of course overbought, but the monthly says that it still have energy.

Hil

I think that there is a trading potential for this counter. The daily RSI is in the 60s. Looks like making a wave 3. The weekly charts all pointing up. What is left is the monthly indicators, but they are slowly reversing to point up.

CIMB vs OSK CW

Ok...I must admit I am still learning in trading foreign CWs. I didn't have time to think about it until today concerning the effect of currency on the CW price. Oh, my normal day job keeps me busy from thinking properly. Furthermore, I didn't consider this problem until when I face 2 choices of CW: CIMB or OSK?

To win, one need to know the direction of the underlying share. Bull or bear?

The next factor to be considered is the direction of the currency.

CIMB CW's strike price are in MYR while OSK's are in HKD. There is big difference between these two. If MYR strengthens against HKD, that means CIMB's CWs strike price increases in terms of HKD. Well, if the underlying share price remains unchanged, that means the CIMB CW's price must go down! If MYR weakens against HKD, that means CIMB's CWs strike price decreases in terms of HKD, so if the underlying share price remains unchanged, that means the CIMB CW's price must go up.

Conclusion:

1. If HKD strengthens against MYR, buy CIMB CWs
2. If HKD weakens against MYR, buy OSK CWs

Anyway, the currency effect can be ignored if the movement of the underlying share price is substantial as compared to the currency movement.

ChinaLife

ChinaLife has broken the HKD30.00 barrier and closed at a new high. Daily and weekly indicators are overbought. Big surge today. Chlife-C1 may be starting to form an uptrend. I have taken an initial position on Chlife-C1 today.

ICBC

Look at HK shares, ramming every records. Too bad I only keep track of Petroch.

Well, my next target is ICBC. It looks like the downtrend has been broken and the gap price has been closed.

I wanted to buy ICBC-C1 since it has given me a buy signal. But as ICBC-C3 is listed today and it is trading a 1 cent lower, I bought it instead as I think that it is mispriced by the market. Anyhow, I'm still looking for the formula to calculate the theorectical price of a warrant.

Latest fashion in town

The latest fashion in town is the Hong Kong listed CW.

I know one can get free historical data from Yahoo. But to do it manually is too tedious. So I discover this tool called Yahoo Historical Quotes Downloader. Oh...i know of this tool long time ago. The first version that I used was a Java version that requires one to type the command in DOS prompt. Not user friendly at all. That's how my friend got the KLSE data from Yahoo before they discontinue the services. The next version that I tried comes with a GUI, unfortunately, it didn't work. I don't know why. But the latest version works almost perfectly. The free version allows you to download only 100 tickers at one time. So for HKEx, just repeat it a few times to get the complete database.

For daily updates, just go to eoddata to get it free.

So, to do TA on HK shares, get the ticker list from eoddata. Use the ticker list to download the historical data from Yahoo. Their data starts from year 2000. So its sufficient to do TA.

Not only that, you can also get SGX daily shares data. Okay, only one CW from SGX. Maybe it there will be more.

Petroch

I think I made a mistake of assuming that Petroch-C1 and Petroch-C3 should trade at the same premium. I forgot to take into account the expiration date of these CWs. Because of this flawed assumption, I have changed from Petroch-C1 to Petroch-C3 due to the perceived mispriced of the CW. Currently, Petroch-C3 is lagging the movement of Petroch-C1.