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Tuesday, July 10, 2007

CIMB vs OSK CW

Ok...I must admit I am still learning in trading foreign CWs. I didn't have time to think about it until today concerning the effect of currency on the CW price. Oh, my normal day job keeps me busy from thinking properly. Furthermore, I didn't consider this problem until when I face 2 choices of CW: CIMB or OSK?

To win, one need to know the direction of the underlying share. Bull or bear?

The next factor to be considered is the direction of the currency.

CIMB CW's strike price are in MYR while OSK's are in HKD. There is big difference between these two. If MYR strengthens against HKD, that means CIMB's CWs strike price increases in terms of HKD. Well, if the underlying share price remains unchanged, that means the CIMB CW's price must go down! If MYR weakens against HKD, that means CIMB's CWs strike price decreases in terms of HKD, so if the underlying share price remains unchanged, that means the CIMB CW's price must go up.

Conclusion:
  1. If HKD strengthens against MYR, buy CIMB CWs
  2. If HKD weakens against MYR, buy OSK CWs
Anyway, the currency effect can be ignored if the movement of the underlying share price is substantial as compared to the currency movement.

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