Friday, October 10, 2008

A Chain of Unfortunate Events

A chain of events to got us into the mother of all financial crisis:
  1. US housing peak and the house value drops
  2. Derivatives (aka financial WMD) losses value
  3. Bank write down their losses
  4. Bank shares drops
  5. Bank collapse due to insufficient capital and over leverage
  6. Derivatives value drops again
  7. Any institution that bought the derivatives at their peak all drops 
  8. Banks don't trust banks, people don't trust bank/government
  9. Nobody can get any loan, business don't have money for day-to-day operation
  10. Cry of recession! 
  11. Mutual fund & hedge fund incur losses
  12. Investor withdraw money from funds
  13. Funds sell shares to raise money
  14. Shares drop again
  15. Panic panic panic! (repeat step 11 to 14 until everyone gives up hope)
  16. Cry of depression!
  17. (People jumping out of windows)
  18. (No one left to sell)
  19. Market hits bottom and recovers

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