Perisai

Perisai looks interesting. Depending on how you draw the downtrend line (weekly chart above), you could interpret it as the downtrend line has been broken or maybe not. A look at the RSI shows that the weekly downtrend RSI has been broken (no ambiguity here). Furthermore, the RSI value is in the 60s. I interpret this as bullish development. Most probably the 27 months of consolidation is over.


The daily chart shows that it is overbought but the RSI has been able to make a higher high. Possible pullback should be expected as indicated by the long shadow candle.

Sliding Temporary Halted?

The KLCI technicals is bad. Unless some miracle happens, it will take a few months to recover to the upside (if it happens). It was a busy week for me, I cut almost all my CWs. Only left TM-CC, AMMB-CA and BJToto-CA. For BJToto-CA, I'm betting that the support at around 5.10 should hold. If the market continues to slid, even good shares will also go down. My technical readings also spell trouble for my so called fundamental counters: Notion, Wellcal and Masteel. These counters looks like sinking due to gravity. All are cleared for now. If it ain't going up, why keep and expose yourself to market risk? Cash is king. Anyhow, will reenter if the condition changes (hopefully not sudden change as I will definitely not able to catch the signal if it is too fast.)

All is not lost yet. Ftec seems to be inching 1.5 cents per week. Oilcorp pula looks like go to break to the upside again. So, you see, I'm not selling all out yet.....

High percentage of failure

Looks like for every 2 stocks that I choose, 1 will not work out. Very high rate of failure, huh?

All my finance play not working out. I cannot imagine how did I missed out the property play. Maybe I was paying to much energy on L&G to get out from it. Talking about L&G, I missed the boat, I tried to get in last week but took the unusual way of using limit order. Usually I use market order. Most probably the past still haunts me. What play will be next?

Market ding dong up and down. I think I will leave the bluechips CW for now. The technicals are getting worse. US is not looking good. A double top? Not a good time for election if the market continue behaving like this. The best is maybe the year-end window dressing.

Looking for Oppurtunities

The following is my basic method of looking for trading opportunities using Metastock. Before I continue, I would like to thank the following person for making this possible:
1. SML for providing the Metastock update script and taking the effort to get the data from Yahoo (when it was still available).
2. Swingtrader for teaching me how to write the filter formula.

Okai, lets go to the steps:
1. Set up Metastock filter rules. Mine look like this:
a. Monthly timeframe scan
Mov(CLOSE,3,E) > Mov(CLOSE,7,E) AND MACD() > Mov(MACD(),9,E)

b. Weekly timeframe scan
Mov(CLOSE,3,E) > Mov(CLOSE,7,E) AND Mov(CLOSE,7,E) > Mov(CLOSE,20,E) AND MACD() > Mov(MACD(),9,E)

c. Daily timeframe scan
Mov(CLOSE,3,E) > Mov(CLOSE,7,E) AND Mov(CLOSE,7,E) > Mov(CLOSE,20,E) AND Mov(CLOSE,20,E) > Mov(CLOSE,30,E) AND MACD() > Mov(MACD(),9,E)

2. Copy the result

3. Compare the result with the previous day result

4. Find the differences

5. The differences represents possible trading oppurtunity

Example for CWs
18-Jun-07: BURSA DIGI MPLANT PROTON
19-Jun-07: BJTOTO BURSA DIGI MPLANT PLUS PROTON RHBCAP TM
So on 20 Jun, one may consider trading in BJToto, Plus, RHBCap or TM. This depends on the detail analysis of the stock.

TA vs FA

Technical Analysis vs Fundamental Analysis. Which is better? As I said before, use a method that suits your personality.

Why I use TA instead of FA?

Well, when I first started investing, actually I tried to use FA. First I rely on the FA reports from brokerage houses, then I tried doing it myself. Bought books on how to do that. But the problem is:

1. I have limited time, can you do an analysis on 1300 counters in BM?
2. One cannot rely doing FA from the desk only (i.e. read yearly account statement), you need to talk to the management, competitors etc. Will the management entertain an unknown?
3. Accounting is not my field of expertise. I thought it was debit/credit (as I learned in my Perdagangan class in Form 1-3). But things can get really creative!
   
4. Brokerage houses have access to the management, but they do not always report it objectively. They tend to give a more rosy picture for everything (i.e buys vs sells are a ratio of multiple times).
5. I'm only limited to Malaysian market.

So I switched to TA. TA works if you are discipline and knows the weaknesses. What I have learned from TA:

1. There is no silver bullet. Don't rely only on one indicator. You need to combine them.
2. Use simple indicators because everything are derived from price and volume.
   
3. Don't be short sighted, always look at the bigger picture no matter which time frame you are trading in.
4. Interpretation is an art, you need experience for that. So don't expect quick result in the early stages.

The advantages of using TA is:

1. Your trading is not only limited to Malaysia, humans behave the same all around the world, so your TA technique works in every market.
2. You can trade stock, commodity and currency using TA.
3. Saves you time as TA programs can scan through everything in a few minutes.

That summarizes my opinion about TA vs FA.

PBBank

Is PBBank coming? The first chart is PBBank-01 while the second is PBBank. PBBank chart is not pretty as it shows weekly bearish divergence and the MACD is going into negative zone. However, at look at PBBank-01 which only the foreigners can buy tells a different story. The weekly RSI bearish divergence has been broken (as of Thursday) and the MACD is going back into positive zone. So, will PBBank follow?

Based on this argument, PBBank could follow PBBank-01, I have taken a tiny position in PBBank-CC as it has the longest lifetime (premium and gearing are all almost the same for the 3 CWs: CA/CB/CC). Hopefully this works out.

Spolymr & BJToto

Rebalancing my portfolio. Sold Spolymr as it looks about at the right value based on current Supermx price. I don't want to hold odd lots as happened to my GHLSys.

Took a quick profit on BJToto as I'm a little bit concern with today's candle. Furthermore, I bought at a level where the proper stop was very far from my entry price, i.e. no balls to hang on :p

Telekom is overbought now. Can it break 11.10????

Watch out on Petroch-C3 tomorrow. Those that have subscribe to the CW are technically 70% richer now (based on the given premium for Petroch-C1).

Petroch

I just realized that Petroch is also listed in the NYSE as PTR. Anyway, it has broken new high in HK and NY. Petroch-C1 chart shows that a possible uptrend in the making. That's why I have added another position. Anyhow, just found out the "reason" for the surge. So, my oil play has also become a China play.

All time frame chart for Petroch is at the overbought position now.

TM

Aiyo...left and right buy signal generated. Don't have that much money to buy and to blog during market hours.

Okay, why did I buy TM-CC:
1. Buy signal generated yesterday.
2. All daily indicators positive.
3. Monthly indicators still up.

Risk:
1. Weekly indicators improving but still mix.

My conclusion:
1. Possibly challenging 11.10 again
2. Due to weekly chart intepretation, not sure yet whether it have the power to break 11.10

Possibly a quick trade since TM-CC has almost zero time value with a gearing of 13x (based on OSK 19 June table).

Don't Become A Follower

Many people likes to follow a guru. I just got a message to simply follows Sams recommendation.

Guys/gals, don't you get it? It's not just about winning. It's winning with your capability. Sams himself says his objective is to teach FA. What have you learned from him? He is going to stop blogging after Feb 2008 (as he says it). So, if you don't learn anything, what will you do after that? Can you buy/sell with your own decision?

He likes to boost the superiority of FA. For me, no matter it is a black cat or white cat, as long as the cat can catch mice, then it is a good cat. There is no such thing as FA better then TA or vice versa. It's about something that suits your personality.

Some people uses NA: News Analysis, to see how market reacts to news to buy/sell. Others used SA: Sentiment Analysis.

So there are many techniques, be a master of one technique. Be the master yourself.

BJToto & TM

Hmmm....cut loss in BJToto last week but reenter back again! Got fooled. Finally the breakout came, so fast, so furious, without me in it. How much can it go? Just taking a small position with very tight stop. I was not able to buy yesterday because of whole day involve in a meeting.

TM gave me a buy signal yesterday. So bought TM-CC. Almost zero time value with very high gearing. In essence, high risk, high gain. The reverse is also true.

Got the feeling that the market will go above 1400 and beyond now because the bullish counter (based on my definition) increases in an orderly number.

Crude Oil

My data for crude oil is limited. So all readings is based only on weekly chart.

After consolidating between 60 and 68 region, it seems that it has broken to the upside and ready to rechallenge the previous high of 80.

What does this means? Oil & gas counter should get more fuel to rally. Consumers will most probably suffer. Steep correction in CPO may find support. That's all I can think of.

Not Stock Related

Life is not all about stock market.

An interest article from Tun Hanif Omar appears in The Star today. This got me googled for the source. Damn, as good as Tom Clancy.

FTEC

Everyday high volume. What's up?

Bought it because:
1. All daily indicator goes up.
2. Weekly chart may indicate the end of consolidation.
3. Monthly chart is up.

Risk:
1. Weekly MACD on the verge of going into negative. So everything may also crash.

PetroChina

Okie, I am in the Petroch-C1. My justification:
1. Weekly RSI in 60s, usually will go to the 70s before peaking.
2. All weekly indicators are up.
3. Daily Stochastic just turn up again.

Risk:
1. May cover gap at 9.00 HKD

AMMB, KLK, Kretam, BJtoto

The first loss is the best loss! Cut KLK-CC and BJToto-CA, Take profit on Kretam-WA. Reenter AMMB-CA. Is plantation play over?

I don't understand, counters that I cut quickly will rebound up as quick. Counters that I delayed cutting, will continue going down. This makes my actions inconsistent. Must be more discipline. One way is for me to aware of my emotion. If I have a "hope" for a rebound, that means really bad.

Oilcorp

I don't have any exposure to oil&gas play. Samudra was a lost oppurtunity.

Technically, I think Oilcorp may have good oppurtunity. If you read Samgoss blog, he has been promoting it for the past 2 weeks. I can't just follow blindly, correct? So need to have my own "reasons" :p


My justification for buying:
1. Daily stochastic swinging to the upper region.
2. Daily RSI downtrend broken, this means good chance for the price downtrend to be broken too.
3. Daily MACD going negative positive.

The reading from weekly chart is mix, generally it shows uptrend with consolidation. Anyway, if all daily indicators point up, maybe a good play for a swing to .....(can't put a price target because it will skew my analysis later)

This will be my third play with this counter, 1 good, 1 ok. How about this?

CW not working out

Mine CWs play is not working out. KLCI is still trap in short term consolidation. Thus, my CWs not moving. Rotational play moves to 3rd liners, the movement is fast and my filter is only designed to catch longterm trend that moves slowly. So I don't get to anticipate their moves. Since long term trend is getting flat, I am thinking of changing my filter parameters. Still looking into this.

Standarized the foreign CW parameters?

What the f...? The strike price for OSK CWs for foreign share are in HKD. The strike price for CIMB CWs for foreign shares are in MYR. Oh....this makes my computation so much harder!

Why can't there be a standard? This just brings confusion especially when one have to take into account the foreign exchange. If you don't look careful, you sure rugi.

Look at OSK CW Pricing table (11 Jun 2007 price). Even they are confuse. -44% premium for HSBC-C1 and 137.77% premium for Singtel-C1.

Shouldn't the basic parameters for foreign CWs be standardize?

ChinaMobile, ICBC, PetroChina CWs

For two days in a row the CW for HK listed shares are in the top-10 volume. Since it is only 2 days of data, I am unable to make any analysis on the CWs. Will wait longer before deciding whether to trade or not. Anyhow, this is my analysis on the underlying shares.
PetroChina: In uptrend. Best bet at the moment.

ICBC: Still going down. Avoid!
ChinaMobile: Consolidation. Wait.

Bjtoto, MISC, KLK, Kretam, Ranhill, Commerz

Mix result for this week. Bjtoto and MISC refuse to break new high. Still waiting. KLK makes another attempt, so my KLK-CC is above water now. Kretam makes a surprise move today. Anymore to go? I got out of Ranhill as I have interpreted the price/volume action will lead to consolidation. I don't want to sit it out. Anyhow, I got back in Commerz-CC as Commerz looks strong indeed.

Looks like the market has decoupled from external events. The number of bullish counters based on my definition keeps increasing since 31 May. Is everyone feeling happy because Abdullah is getting married? Happiness means people are more willing spend, so more buying to come?

HK Call Warrant

This is not as easy as I think. Can't compute mentally the market value of the call warrants as I need to take into consideration the exchange rate. The next problem will be having access to the price of the underlying shares itself.

BTW, Shanghai corrected, but a no even in the rest of the world. So, if everyone is expecting it to happen, it is a no surprise. A no surprise will not "move" the market. It got to be something unexpected to crash our market.....

MISC

If one ignore the spikes, MISC should probably has broken it's all time high. The interesting thing is that MISC-CB is trading at very low premium with a gearing of 10x. The reward will be tremendous if MISC keeps moving up. Of course, the reverse will be true.

Transmile Anyone?

Aiyoh, I don't understand why people will buy Transmile at this time? Look at the chart, very long candles. This represents emotional buy/sell. Anything can happen. There is no certainty. As a trader/investor, one need certainty. If you are not certain, do you dare to take the bet? Yes, nothing is 100% certain, but at least when the odds are in our favor, then oklor.

There are many counters that are still going up. Why not take a bet on them? Why bet on something that is diving down? What is the fare value? Every fare value that was given by an analyst can be consider just a random point. Nobody knows what the market will pay for it. Don't catch a falling knife. Rebound play is just not worth the risk!

KLK

Consolidation over for KLK? Highest gearing for KLK-CC as compared to KLK-CA and KLK-CB. All are in the money.

BJToto

Every where new high. How about KLCI? Still afraid of China crashing?

Looking at BJToto chart, it has closed at the 4 years old time high. Many sellers are waiting at around this region. So, is it going to break to 5.00 and above? Daily charts indicate that there is a good chance. So is it worth to take a bet at the covered warrant? It is still below the striking price but with a gearing of 14x and only 8 cents away.....Hope that it don't turn out like the bet I took with AMMB.