Creation and construction takes time and effort, but destruction can be swift and violent.
That is why I do not have a long term view of the market. You will never know how severe the bear market will turn out to be. This story concerning Bill Miller shows that it is better to be save than sorry. When you smell a bear, start liquidating some. When you hear the bear, liquidate some more. When you see the bear, liquidate all!
The story also shows that we are all vulnerable. Don't be arrogant. Don't take excessive risk. Always look out for signs of trouble. The most important of all, take responsibility for your failure. Do not blame it on the market. By taking responsibility, you learned about your mistakes, about your foolishness and about yourself. This is the only way we can survive.
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