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Saturday, May 16, 2009

World Indexes

Uptrend halted. Is it time to consolidate for the next up move or there will be another panic coming? The answer will be revealed in the next 1-2 weeks time.
World Longterm Midterm Shorterm
S&P500 Down Up Neutral (-)
DJI Down Neutral Neutral (-)
NasdaqComp Down Up Neutral (-)
Nikkei 225 Down Up Up
Kospi Up Up Neutral (-)
SSECI Up Up Up
HSI Neutral Up Up
TWII Up Up Up
STI Neutral Up Up
SENSEX Neutral Up Up
AORD Down Up Neutral
FTSE Down Up Neutral (-)
DAX Down Up Neutral (-)
Bovespa Neutral Up Neutral (-)

Who will win the tussle?

Bear's arguments: CRE is getting worse. Continue tightening of consumer credit. Jobless number is still bad. Housing price is still dropping. Some major banks are insolvent.

Bull's arguments: Bad economic numbers are less bad. Governments around the world are pumping a massive amount of money.

I think that the key is the USD. The PRC could be buying up world commodities as a way to diversify from USD. We know that PRC is now the 5th largest gold holder in the world. They are also building up their emergency petroleum reserves. With so much money in their pocket, what will they be buying? Anyhow, I wonder what will happen when everyone starts to loose their confidence in the USD?

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