Saturday, May 23, 2009

World Market

The current theme is USD, reflation and emerging markets. I think that as long as there is no panic in the Western markets, the domestic consumption of the emerging markets will fuel the next phase of world growth.

World Longterm Midterm Shorterm
S&P500 Down Up Neutral
DJI Down Neutral Neutral
NasdaqComp Down Up Neutral
Nikkei 225 Down Up Up
Kospi Up Up Up (+)
SSECI Up Up Neutral (-)
HSI Neutral Up Up
STI Neutral Up Up
SENSEX Neutral Up Up
AORD Down Up Neutral
FTSE Down Up Neutral
DAX Down Up Up (+)
Bovespa Neutral Up Up (+)

Currently, the US markets are trying to built a base. As long as DJI is not under 8000, S&P 500 not under 850 and Nasdaq Composite not under 1600, the rest of the world market should continue to hold on or rally.

US is still the no. 1 consumer of the world and there are still deleveraging. Until the emerging markets consumer can replace them, we will have a lot up down movement.

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