From my charts, it looks like KLSE is heading for a correction. Last few days up was just to dress up the index. Most probably it will stop sliding at 920. Historically, the index should make a 50% correction which puts it at 900.
Many stocks are push and dump. They dun usually survive T+3. Stocks that breaks new grounds (Mems) are too risky to buy as the daily indicator is overbought.
TA is in corrective mode. 3 Aug is the ex-date for the 5% dividend. Will it be push up?
Sumatec - Alamak, bad bet. It is still sliding down. Support at 0.63.
L&G - No clear signal that it will make a move. Better wait for breakout before buying.
FTEC - This is the only light I see. Slowly inching up. 0.245 is the support. Mmm....maybe buy with stop at 0.24. Try my luck.
Saturday, July 30, 2005
Wednesday, July 27, 2005
Licking my wounds
Took two hits with my Kejora-WA and Talam-WA this week. These are counters that I'm trying to clear.
Warrants are good instrument to make great profits. The opposite is true also. You may think that you can make good money, so you choose a counter that is 2 years to death. But if your decision is wrong and you do not cut lost, then after 1 year, your warrant can become your expensive toilet paper.
If you want to play with warrants, make it a point of not holding for more than 1 month. If it doesn't move, most probably it won't. And always buy when you are pretty sure that it is a bull counter. You want to make the kill when it is moving and not sitting put. Don't make the mistakes that I have made. My first disaster with warrants was with Kulim-WA. I manage to recover most of it at the last minute with a slight lost. But I didn't learn my lesson. I forgot. I got greedy and now I have to suffer again.
So if you are wise, then learn from my mistakes. You can't affort to make it :p
Warrants are good instrument to make great profits. The opposite is true also. You may think that you can make good money, so you choose a counter that is 2 years to death. But if your decision is wrong and you do not cut lost, then after 1 year, your warrant can become your expensive toilet paper.
If you want to play with warrants, make it a point of not holding for more than 1 month. If it doesn't move, most probably it won't. And always buy when you are pretty sure that it is a bull counter. You want to make the kill when it is moving and not sitting put. Don't make the mistakes that I have made. My first disaster with warrants was with Kulim-WA. I manage to recover most of it at the last minute with a slight lost. But I didn't learn my lesson. I forgot. I got greedy and now I have to suffer again.
So if you are wise, then learn from my mistakes. You can't affort to make it :p
Tuesday, July 26, 2005
More Young Bulls Counter
Everyone is expecting profit taking now. Nobody dares to buy when the risk is greater. The past week rally is all on Blue Chips. So called 2nd and 3rd liner all still stays in CI 600 price. Where are the retail investors?
Small gold nuggets from my list for this week:
FTEC (Very young, possible support at 0.24 for further uptrend)
L&G (Can collect some at <0.18, alternatively wait for breakout at 0.20)
Sumatec (Still struggling, can bottom fish, making an ascending trinagle? may shoot up when breaks 0.75)
TA (Overbought, at the higher end of uptrend channel, a little bit more to go?)
TA-WB (Laggard, possibly momentum ascellaration)
Small gold nuggets from my list for this week:
FTEC (Very young, possible support at 0.24 for further uptrend)
L&G (Can collect some at <0.18, alternatively wait for breakout at 0.20)
Sumatec (Still struggling, can bottom fish, making an ascending trinagle? may shoot up when breaks 0.75)
TA (Overbought, at the higher end of uptrend channel, a little bit more to go?)
TA-WB (Laggard, possibly momentum ascellaration)
Saturday, July 23, 2005
Young Bulls
So I have rewritten my trading rules. First of all is to determine whether a stock is in uptrend or still in downtrend. I shall avoid all stocks that falls under the downtrend category. Rebound is impossible to play. It is so easy to get hurt with this strategy.
What is and uptrend stock? I shall define a stock that is in uptrend when it has broken the downtrend line and both the weekly MACD and 3/7 EMA are positive. From here, I will use the daily charts to time my entry. Sometimes, my hand are ichy and just afraid of missing the bus. So the first thing to do when the signal is spotted is to buy a little bit. Then increase my holding at every correction until the peak has been spotted. As the price ascend higher, the stop lost shall be moved higher to protect my profit. Once the peak has been determined or the price has hit my stop lost, then I shall sell off my entire holdings. No regrets. Move on and look for another bus. This is the slow in, fast out strategy.
My first stock that fulfills these conditions is:
FTEC.
The facts and rumour: AGM has just approve the rights issue. Current price is too low and the management indicate that the rights price will be around 55 cents. So they have to push up the price before the SC approves it.
What is and uptrend stock? I shall define a stock that is in uptrend when it has broken the downtrend line and both the weekly MACD and 3/7 EMA are positive. From here, I will use the daily charts to time my entry. Sometimes, my hand are ichy and just afraid of missing the bus. So the first thing to do when the signal is spotted is to buy a little bit. Then increase my holding at every correction until the peak has been spotted. As the price ascend higher, the stop lost shall be moved higher to protect my profit. Once the peak has been determined or the price has hit my stop lost, then I shall sell off my entire holdings. No regrets. Move on and look for another bus. This is the slow in, fast out strategy.
My first stock that fulfills these conditions is:
FTEC.
The facts and rumour: AGM has just approve the rights issue. Current price is too low and the management indicate that the rights price will be around 55 cents. So they have to push up the price before the SC approves it.
Soul Searching
In the past 1 month, I had some successfull trade and some disaster. I have used the 1-2-3 formations method but most of them gives false breakout. Why? Then I notice my mistake, the 1-2-3 formations are more reliable when used on weekly charts. Daily charts gave too much noise.
For the successful trades, I didn't get the full profit as I have excited too fast. Ex: Ramunia, I sold at 0.87 when it rallied to 1.10 before stopping.
So I keep thinking, what have I done wrong? I want a simple method, spend my time minimally, and earn obcense profit. So I went back to my charts and look for patterns. Reread the technical analysis notes. Look for repeated patterns that gives the highest probability. Sacrificing some profit for sure thing is better than losing your capital. From the patterns, I have created new rules, hopefully, I can earn more after KLSE breaks new high at 940.
For the successful trades, I didn't get the full profit as I have excited too fast. Ex: Ramunia, I sold at 0.87 when it rallied to 1.10 before stopping.
So I keep thinking, what have I done wrong? I want a simple method, spend my time minimally, and earn obcense profit. So I went back to my charts and look for patterns. Reread the technical analysis notes. Look for repeated patterns that gives the highest probability. Sacrificing some profit for sure thing is better than losing your capital. From the patterns, I have created new rules, hopefully, I can earn more after KLSE breaks new high at 940.
Tuesday, May 24, 2005
Restrategize!
Long time since I post anything. The market was terrible. I should not have traded in a downtrend. Rebound games are dangerous. It is not worth the risk. After 5 consecutive losses, I withdrew and reread all those trading techniques that I have learn. Ya, sometimes we need to remind ourselves about the basic principal of trading. Emotional trades will just destroy our capital, crippling our "army" to wage new battle.
Now I'm using the 1-2-3 method. The first candidate that fulfilled this condition is Nscom. Let's see what will happen.
KLSE is still in bear mode. No bull confirmed yet.
Now I'm using the 1-2-3 method. The first candidate that fulfilled this condition is Nscom. Let's see what will happen.
KLSE is still in bear mode. No bull confirmed yet.
Sunday, April 17, 2005
Stressful Trading!
What a stressful week! Talam-WA keep dropping until it is becoming toilet paper. That's why it is essential to cut lost early. I have still not able to do this. Maybe I'm just not a good trader. Maybe I should give up trading! Give up and admit defeat?
Jesse Livermore suffer more than me. I think that I will be able to recover from this darkest moment. I need to be disciplin. Implement my plan no matter what. I have learned technical analysis. But I find that interpreting the chart and planning my strategy is the hardest thing to do. That's why experience is very crucial. No matter what happened, I must have the confidence to stick to my analysis.
I expect the index to continue dropping now. All stocks are at their lows. So how low can they go? This is a period to concentrate on my Futures. Ya, after tremendous lost, I'm going back to Futures. That's the only game I can play when the market is in bear mood. Let's see how much have I learned.
Jesse Livermore suffer more than me. I think that I will be able to recover from this darkest moment. I need to be disciplin. Implement my plan no matter what. I have learned technical analysis. But I find that interpreting the chart and planning my strategy is the hardest thing to do. That's why experience is very crucial. No matter what happened, I must have the confidence to stick to my analysis.
I expect the index to continue dropping now. All stocks are at their lows. So how low can they go? This is a period to concentrate on my Futures. Ya, after tremendous lost, I'm going back to Futures. That's the only game I can play when the market is in bear mood. Let's see how much have I learned.
Friday, April 08, 2005
White Hammer!
A sign that the bears are weakening. Looks like KLCI is poised to rebound after so many days of selling.
Talam: Selling pressure intensified. Highest volume in months. Is this the sign of the final sell off? It must be force selling. If not, I don't think that the price can plunge so fast.
Talam-WA: When you think that it cannot go any lower, it goes lower for you! In one week I already lost 50%. That's the danger of catching a falling knife. You need to have lots of pain killers to withstand the bleeding. Bought more to average down. Don't think that it can be lower than 0 :p
Talam: Selling pressure intensified. Highest volume in months. Is this the sign of the final sell off? It must be force selling. If not, I don't think that the price can plunge so fast.
Talam-WA: When you think that it cannot go any lower, it goes lower for you! In one week I already lost 50%. That's the danger of catching a falling knife. You need to have lots of pain killers to withstand the bleeding. Bought more to average down. Don't think that it can be lower than 0 :p
Thursday, April 07, 2005
Bursa Malaysia - The only red dot
Everyone green, but we are the only one with red. The easing of capital controls has pushes the index down further. Why invest in Malaysia when other places are cheaper? KLCI is heading into 850 level. That's the 66% retracement level. Break this and bye bye liao.
Talam: Alamak! Drop another 10 cents. Very oversold liao. Bursa's announcement shows that the Big Boss is buying back. Does this indicate something? Historically, 0.80 is a good support. Now let's hope that the sellers has run out of steam.
Talam-WA: Still holding this chap. Making new low but manage to close with a doji. A doji in an ovrsold market is a very strong signal. Very high chance of this stock moving up tomorrow. Rebound target is around 0.10.
Sapcres: Hmm....SapuraInd is buying back. Strong support during such bearish scenario. It is trying to inch up slowly. Must pay more attention at this stock. Any indication of rally - buy the warrant.
Talam: Alamak! Drop another 10 cents. Very oversold liao. Bursa's announcement shows that the Big Boss is buying back. Does this indicate something? Historically, 0.80 is a good support. Now let's hope that the sellers has run out of steam.
Talam-WA: Still holding this chap. Making new low but manage to close with a doji. A doji in an ovrsold market is a very strong signal. Very high chance of this stock moving up tomorrow. Rebound target is around 0.10.
Sapcres: Hmm....SapuraInd is buying back. Strong support during such bearish scenario. It is trying to inch up slowly. Must pay more attention at this stock. Any indication of rally - buy the warrant.
Wednesday, April 06, 2005
Rebound soon
Ya, many stocks have been oversold. My TA shows that rebound is very nearby.
Talam-WA: going into junk status. Collected some on Monday and Tuesday. High risk high gain.
Puncak-WA: Puncak has broken it's downtrend channel. News of funding for Pahang-Selangor water project was the catalyst. Looking to buy into Puncak-WA for more gain.
Talam-WA: going into junk status. Collected some on Monday and Tuesday. High risk high gain.
Puncak-WA: Puncak has broken it's downtrend channel. News of funding for Pahang-Selangor water project was the catalyst. Looking to buy into Puncak-WA for more gain.
Friday, April 01, 2005
Dream all crushed!
All 2nd & 3rd liners is crushing me. Well there goes by dream of making a living through trading. My greatest weakness is cutting lost. Why am I not able to do that? Why ??????
Many stocks are at their lows. RSIs shows that rebound is imminent. How can I sell when it is already so low? Hope to catch on any rebound to get out of this misery.
Ramunia: Step out after the rally in the morning. Earned slightly more than my broker. #-o Stupid risk/reward ratio.
Many stocks are at their lows. RSIs shows that rebound is imminent. How can I sell when it is already so low? Hope to catch on any rebound to get out of this misery.
Ramunia: Step out after the rally in the morning. Earned slightly more than my broker. #-o Stupid risk/reward ratio.
Thursday, March 31, 2005
Buy Ramunia
It is dangerous to catch a falling knife. You will get cut and bleed profusely. I am catching one : Ramunia. Ya, this stock has fall substantially. Seems that someone is pushing the price ever lower. I enter my trade at 0.885. The decision is based on 66% Fibonacci retracement level. I thought that was a good level as it was hovering at that level for some time. However, it suddenly dropped to as low as 0.84. The weird thing is that I didn't scare at all, just a little bit worried. With that type of selling, I don't think it will be sustained. Last minute push allows it to close at 0.875. According to my analysis, if rebound, then the target is at around 0.99 for 33% retracement. Hope my chart reading is correct.
Wednesday, March 30, 2005
Sold Avenue & Sapcres
Avenue: Finally sold off Avenue. Earning enough for my petrol. :((
Sapcres: Also sold half of my holdings for Sapcres. Going to test the support of 1.00 again
Sapcres: Also sold half of my holdings for Sapcres. Going to test the support of 1.00 again
Tuesday, March 29, 2005
Work and Trading
A lot of work pressure today. Seems not able to concentrate on the market. This is affecting my trading.
Avenue: Queued in the morning at 0.70 to sell my Avenue. Seems like going to drop under the support. Didn't get the chance to sell. In ther afternoon, I just didn't execute it. Why should I sell at the support and not at the resistance? So hope throughout the afternoon that the support holds. Luckily still holds. Chart shows that it is still on uptrend after slight pullback.
Talam: Going lower. Alamak where is the buyers? Who is supporting at the last minute? Financial result will be announced soon. Good or bad?
Sapcres: Good result, no rally. Market sentiment really bad. Make a long-shadow hammer today. Most probably will go back to 1.04 support. I will try to sell off tomorrow to reduce my lost.
Sitatt: Never listen to rumour. That was what Jesse Livermore taught me. Someone will spread some rumour that a stock going to raise. From word of mouth, this will create the buy volume and then they will throw at you. Stupid counter, where is your MGO at 1.20? Anyhow, indicators shows that there will be a rally for this counter. Try to reduce my lost with this possible rally.
Avenue: Queued in the morning at 0.70 to sell my Avenue. Seems like going to drop under the support. Didn't get the chance to sell. In ther afternoon, I just didn't execute it. Why should I sell at the support and not at the resistance? So hope throughout the afternoon that the support holds. Luckily still holds. Chart shows that it is still on uptrend after slight pullback.
Talam: Going lower. Alamak where is the buyers? Who is supporting at the last minute? Financial result will be announced soon. Good or bad?
Sapcres: Good result, no rally. Market sentiment really bad. Make a long-shadow hammer today. Most probably will go back to 1.04 support. I will try to sell off tomorrow to reduce my lost.
Sitatt: Never listen to rumour. That was what Jesse Livermore taught me. Someone will spread some rumour that a stock going to raise. From word of mouth, this will create the buy volume and then they will throw at you. Stupid counter, where is your MGO at 1.20? Anyhow, indicators shows that there will be a rally for this counter. Try to reduce my lost with this possible rally.
Saturday, March 26, 2005
Web Forum Shutdown
First it was stockk.com going down. Now it is IVAdvisor. Most probably the SC is shutting down these websites. I wonder when will be pasarklse turn? Now my source of real information is all gone. You just can't trust the advice given by brokerage firm. What they say will most probably wrong 80% of the time. You buy, they throw to you. And you get caught with your money inside, failing to cut lost, you will die surely.
I'm quite good at reading the signals already. That's the easy part. Planning the trade, that is the toughest thing to do. When to enter...when to cut lost....how much one should chase the price with a safety margin...that is not easy. I seldom follow the buy call given in forums, I just use it to determine what is hot and what is cold. Trust no one but yourself. That's why stock education is very important. With it, you will increase your probability of winning. Without it, you will forever following the crowd. I'm currently reading "Market Trading Tactics" by Daryl Guppy. It was given to me by my girlfriend for my birthday. I guess she knows that the more I win, the more she can spend :p.
I hope the websites are up soon. Without it, life feels so lonely. There will be no connections with other traders.
I'm quite good at reading the signals already. That's the easy part. Planning the trade, that is the toughest thing to do. When to enter...when to cut lost....how much one should chase the price with a safety margin...that is not easy. I seldom follow the buy call given in forums, I just use it to determine what is hot and what is cold. Trust no one but yourself. That's why stock education is very important. With it, you will increase your probability of winning. Without it, you will forever following the crowd. I'm currently reading "Market Trading Tactics" by Daryl Guppy. It was given to me by my girlfriend for my birthday. I guess she knows that the more I win, the more she can spend :p.
I hope the websites are up soon. Without it, life feels so lonely. There will be no connections with other traders.
Friday, March 25, 2005
Rebound Holding
Rebound still holding. Most analysis predicts that it will hit 890 and then headed back. Will it happen? Up or down, I hope to take the right decision in the Futures. Hard game to play. Lost terribly in here too. What will Mr Market do tomorrow?
Avenue: Profit taking today. Stop at 0.69. Most probably 0.70 will hold. Weekly charts shows that action is just the beginning.
Sapcres: Hmm...like got action again liao. Substantial holder supporting. Looks like the downtrend triangle has been broken.
AMMB: Oversold. Monitor. Should rebound at around 2.75.
Avenue: Profit taking today. Stop at 0.69. Most probably 0.70 will hold. Weekly charts shows that action is just the beginning.
Sapcres: Hmm...like got action again liao. Substantial holder supporting. Looks like the downtrend triangle has been broken.
AMMB: Oversold. Monitor. Should rebound at around 2.75.
Thursday, March 24, 2005
Rebound or reversal?
KLCI opened much lower today, an reaction to DJI. But was pushed up eventually. Nice reversal candle. Hmmm...looks like rebound will go to 890 and...maybe beyond because of bullish divergence.
Very happy today as the decision that I have taken yesterday turns out to be right.
Avenue: Rumours of restructuring pushed it above resistance 0.70, next resistance is around 0.77-0.79. Must be careful, since it is overbought.
Talam: Rebound. Will take any chance to reduce my lost for this counter.
Talam: Reversal candle. Should go higher.
Tomorrow, KLCI should go higher as DJI is expected to rebound from oversold position. Hopefully this is the journey to 1000.
Very happy today as the decision that I have taken yesterday turns out to be right.
Avenue: Rumours of restructuring pushed it above resistance 0.70, next resistance is around 0.77-0.79. Must be careful, since it is overbought.
Talam: Rebound. Will take any chance to reduce my lost for this counter.
Talam: Reversal candle. Should go higher.
Tomorrow, KLCI should go higher as DJI is expected to rebound from oversold position. Hopefully this is the journey to 1000.
Wednesday, March 23, 2005
Blood Everywhere!
Blue chips all kapuk! 3 speculative counter hit limit down: Suremax, Sanbumi, Fajar. Whole market in strong selling mode. Die die die. Or oppurtunity to buy cheap :D
Collected Talam and Talam-WA.
Talam: Hit support 1.03. May stop here or breakdown. Let's see tomorrow.
Talam-WA: Some support emerge from 0.135. Bought at 0.14. Hope for a quick rebound.
Avenue: Still holding.
KLCI: should rebound now. Oversold liao.
Collected Talam and Talam-WA.
Talam: Hit support 1.03. May stop here or breakdown. Let's see tomorrow.
Talam-WA: Some support emerge from 0.135. Bought at 0.14. Hope for a quick rebound.
Avenue: Still holding.
KLCI: should rebound now. Oversold liao.
Tuesday, March 22, 2005
21 March 2005 (morning)
Down down down! Terrible market.
Ramunia: Aiyoh! Good news of winning contract but the stock goes down. Bad omen. I sold off at 1.24. Breakeven. My remisier must be happy because he is earning more than me :(
Avenue: Restructuring of GLC theme play. Broke the downtrend resistance line at 0.65. So I jump in at 0.67. Stop at 0.605. Weekly and daily chart shows bullishness. Resistance at 0.70/0.85
Ramunia: Aiyoh! Good news of winning contract but the stock goes down. Bad omen. I sold off at 1.24. Breakeven. My remisier must be happy because he is earning more than me :(
Avenue: Restructuring of GLC theme play. Broke the downtrend resistance line at 0.65. So I jump in at 0.67. Stop at 0.605. Weekly and daily chart shows bullishness. Resistance at 0.70/0.85
Saturday, March 19, 2005
Weekly Review (19 March 2005)
The government funds are supporting the index for Bursa's listing. Well, Bursa really got a good start with lots of 8s. However, the index finally goes down. Trendchaser spotted a H&S formation (http://www.trendchaser.net/klsedaily.htm). So KLSE index should go down more. Next support will be around 885. The following is my analysis for the counters that I'm holding ->
Ramunia (an uptrend stock, enter: 1.22, stop:1.05, target: 1.40): The candle chart shows a long shadow hammer, going to consolidation? But news of new contract won should push it higher. Hopefully it will break higher next Monday.
Sapcres (uptrend, consolidation, stop: 1.05): The major shareholder is buying back. Thus, support at the current level. The price is getting congested. Seems to be making a triangle formation. It will either breakout of this pattern with both ways. Hopefully up with major shareholder support.
Megan-WA (enter: 0.355, stop 0.345, target: 0.38): I'm not sure why I'm in love with this share. Maybe the share buyback of Megan will limit the downside of this stock. Anyhow, this stock shows good up/down trend. Can make some money out of it.
Talam-WA (downtrend): Win big, lose big. Not much life left. Can I break even with this chap? A local fund is holding some it. Will they come to the rescue? Looking for signs to enter.
Cutting lost is very important in trade. However, I always again and again failed to cut lost. The problem is failing to set proper stop. Now, all my trades have proper stops.
Losing counters: GHLSys, novaMSC, JSPC, Kejora-WA, Hil-WA, Hwgb, Sitatt, Kretam-Wa, Talam, L&G. :((
Potential counters: Mems (downtrend - got out last Friday with a small profit), Kurasia (uptrend)
Ramunia (an uptrend stock, enter: 1.22, stop:1.05, target: 1.40): The candle chart shows a long shadow hammer, going to consolidation? But news of new contract won should push it higher. Hopefully it will break higher next Monday.
Sapcres (uptrend, consolidation, stop: 1.05): The major shareholder is buying back. Thus, support at the current level. The price is getting congested. Seems to be making a triangle formation. It will either breakout of this pattern with both ways. Hopefully up with major shareholder support.
Megan-WA (enter: 0.355, stop 0.345, target: 0.38): I'm not sure why I'm in love with this share. Maybe the share buyback of Megan will limit the downside of this stock. Anyhow, this stock shows good up/down trend. Can make some money out of it.
Talam-WA (downtrend): Win big, lose big. Not much life left. Can I break even with this chap? A local fund is holding some it. Will they come to the rescue? Looking for signs to enter.
Cutting lost is very important in trade. However, I always again and again failed to cut lost. The problem is failing to set proper stop. Now, all my trades have proper stops.
Losing counters: GHLSys, novaMSC, JSPC, Kejora-WA, Hil-WA, Hwgb, Sitatt, Kretam-Wa, Talam, L&G. :((
Potential counters: Mems (downtrend - got out last Friday with a small profit), Kurasia (uptrend)
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