Massacre!

If yesterday was a bloodbath, today was a massacre...at least for the first half session, panic selling everywhere, price open gap down. It's like the bear just coming out of his winter hibernation, all hungry eating everyone insight. This is the first time I see a 100 points decline.

But many counters were really off their lows. The seller sells as if Armageddon, the buyer buys as if it is the great Mega Sale. The result is very long shadow candle. Since Shanghai rebounded, we should also have one tomorrow. All those massive T+3 volume of 4.7 million shares has passed us. Anyway, confidence has been shaken, so if the bull going to continue charging, it will need a few months to overcome this experience.

Today, I only pick up one counter which is Masteel. The reason is that Hong Leong group has emerge as a substantial holder in this company. Masteel should announce their result today, but Bursa website is so jam up at this moment (6pm) that I can't access the result. Let's hope my risk taking will be rewarded tomorrow.

Bloodbath!

Wah lau eh, in 5 years of investing in KLSE, this is the first time I see a 50 points decline in one day. At the close, KLSE still closes down 35 points. FYI, this is not a record, a check through the last bull shows that the record is around 70 points. After all those bullish comments, you suddenly find that part of your wealth atomized.

Of course I'm not spared also. I manage to reduce my holdings in L&G last week, sold out Titan yesterday, got out of Oilcorp today. Unfortunately, I added a little bit on Astro-CB and Masteel. For the rest, the price are just a few cents above my stop loss. Strangely, I do not feel any stress. No panic in me yet.

Well, if my intepretation is correct, the penny shares have just completed Wave 1 of EW, so look out for the end of Wave 2 (62 to 50% retracement) because the Wave 3 reward will be tremendous. Look out for the support at 1200. If cannot hold, then bye bye liao. So what will be the next "reason" to push up the price?

See U at 1300?

Everyone is very bullish. OSK says see you at 1300. But today's chart action tells otherwise. Everyone expecting Telekom to push up the index but instead, the reverse occurs.

Looking at the daily chart, one can detect bearish divergence. So how do I interpret it? I think that weakness is coming. If the index bounce off from 1267, then uptrend intact....but if it closes below, then expect correction to the region of 1200 to 1230. Does it mean general weakness or only bluechips? Maybe rotational play for penny shares?

Anyhow, don't go into panic buying mode (many gaps up). Wait for the right moment when the volume is low and the support still holds.

Stalking: Media

Consolidation since Dec 2006. Making a new base at RM2.50 region. Approaching the uptrend support line. A break above will mean the resumption of uptrend. If not, then no more play.

I still hold the Media-WA that I bought at 0.80 region. Will add if it moves.

What to buy?

If you ask me what to buy, do you also ask me what to sell? Buying comes natural to us because we are always consumers. Always looking to buy something. No wonder our home will be filled with new junk as soon as you cleared the old one.

My strategy now is to concentrate on the number of counters that I will play. Let's see, my system tells me that 621 counters are bullish based on monthly chart, 788 counters based on weekly and 913 based on daily. It's very hard not to pick a winner now.

Anyway, Astro is moving to challenge it's previous high of 5.80. Weekly chart says it is not yet overbought. It should have no problem of breaking this. Astro-CB will be a good play.


Kretam is moving up slowly. This is a laggard play. I missed out the leaders, so no choice to play on the laggard. Watch out on the Kretam-Wa. Only RM0.20 for it to in the money. CPO looks like going to challenge the previous high.

By the way, looks like crude oil has broken out of midterm downtrend. Maybe it will rechallenge the previous high of USD80.00. If this happens, then maybe oil & gas and CPO play. Or end of party?

Day of Records

Aunty, uncle, ah pek, ah mah, fishmonger, vegetable sellers, pasar malam traders are all in liao.

So many records were broken today.

Gainers vs losers: 976 vs 131 or 7.45 to 1.
Volume: 47 million lots
Value: RM4 billion

Easy money for everyone.

For me, I don't play contra. I just don't feel comfortable. So I'm sitting tight with my position. No buying - cause no more investment money, no selling - cause too greedy. Just watching.

2006/2007 Bull Urban Legend

Did you all read about the urban legend posted in Malaysia-Finance Blogspot? From 100k to 16M in 1 year. Concentrated right stock at the right time. This is everyone wishes. Opportunity in front, but we let it run away.

I need to reduce the number of counters I'm playing. Currently more than 10. Cannot give all the attention. I'm trying to get rip of old counters that are still giving me problem.

Next time, I will only play shares that is more than 50 cents in value. If the value is too low, it is just hard to set stop. 0.5 cents could mean up to 10% difference.

Looks like the rally will continue into the Chinese New Year (if nothing bad happens until Bursa reopens). Gong Xi Fatt Chai too all the readers of this blog. Wishing everyone a happy, healthy and wealthy pig year.

Frenzy Buying or Selling?

Record high volume of 3.5 billion. It is a frenzy buying or the final push? More ang pow money has been taken out or more will be poured in after the Chinese New Year? Will people forget about mahjong and blackjack and flock to Bursa on the 4th day of CNY?

Question question questions. I am out of trading money. The last one I bought was Jaks. My speculation on Astro-CB has not work out (yet). Didn't sell anything yet. Just raising all my stops.

Turbulent Day

What a day. Maybe everyone has taken out their ang pow money. Old CWs got hit. For me, I got stopped out of BCTTech and Measat today. But I bought more of Astro-CB. Astro showing signs of going up higher. Hopefully this one will fly. If not, then no ang pow lor.

Looking at Mesdaq chart, confirmed it is in EW 3. Unfortunately, none of my Mesdaq are moving (Mems, Notion, Sanichi, GHLSys, Novamsc, JSPC). Sanichi one day show was completely unexpected. I will decide next week whether to cut or hold.

Oilcorp, Ranhill & Masteel

Ranhill: I have been stalking this counter for the past one month. It one may have broken the downtrend channel. Because of this, I have established a tiny position in this counter. This is a contruction counter that has hardly move. My bet is the discovery of oil that will propel it higher.
Oilcorp: Fundamentally not good, but technically can go up if can break 1.19. So still fill with hope.


Masteel: I'm still trying to find another entry point for Masteel. Looks like it may have found the bottom of this consolidation at 1.15. The daily downtrend RSI has been broken. Let's see whether the selling has subsided.

CNY is only 10 days away. Has everyone gotten their ang pow? Does the foreign funds think this also? Or the gambling spirit will continue during CNY?

Astro & Oilcorp

Market is no good for the 2nd liners and below. Blue chips still moving.

A few penny shares of mine has been hit. Changing a few counters.

Titan is not working well. The gap up was completely covered. A check with Bursa's website shows that PNB is the main seller.

Last week, I have bought into Astro-CB. Astro looks like on the verge of moving. When will the investor "rerate" Astro? Will try to get more if Astro starts to move because the potential for gain in Astro-CB is huge.

I also bought Oilcorp. The first time I played this counter is last year. Currently, the weekly chart shows that it got potential. Not sure whether it will be pushed up again. Bought this counter hoping the O&G play will start soon.

Still holding BCTTech and Sanichi. BCTTech has not covered its gap. Will it?

Masteel is good to me. I'm waiting for the next signal to add. It's in consolidation now.

Feeling Regret

And so the market moves up again. Feeling regret now for the counters that I have sold earlier. I really didn't expect the market can move without any rest. I guess that when it do, I will definitely caught with my pants down.

In Nov/Dec, I thought that earning 100% gain is very good. Now, looking back, if I did nothing, it would have been 300 or 400%.

So what Jessie Livermore said is true: Big money comes with sitting tight and doing nothing (something like that).

No point changing from one counter to another to try to catch all the trends. It is just impossible.

Oh well, another lesson learned. Time to move on again.

Anyway, looks like we are heading to 1200. I read it somewhere that round numbers always serve as a natural resistance. Will this be the one? Or the foreign money keep pushing?

Railway Track List

The market is still going up. My buy list is like the railway track (a term used to describe 4D punters list). But not all of them performed the same. Some will zoom up, some slowly, some never move even you thought that the stars are all aligned to favor it.

The current theme is still construction, timber and now steel...maybe semiconductor will be next?

What I have sold has continued going up, what I thought will go up and kept instead has not moved (...yet?)

Every session, you wait for your favorite counter to move, but it still refused. So you wonder why?

Apli

Monthly chart for Apli is shown. It still says downtrend with resistance at around RM0.40. Based on my system, I will not buy this counter.

Titan

Established a small position for this counter. Every time frames EMA is up. Downtrend broken and consolidation is over. Looks like it is making a Wave 3. Low oil price should give a boost to it's profit.

The start of CNY rally?

Is this the start of CNY rally? Penny shares are moving now, going after the big brothers.

Looking at the Mesdaq chart, it looks like it is in Elliott Wave 3.



Feeling a little bit happy today because Notion has broken new high. Let's see whether it can hang on to the gain.

Another Mesdaq counter that may be in wave 3 is GHLSys. I think this time it's for real.

Measat, L&G, Masteel

Some other counters that I'm holding:


Measat: Aiyoh, satellite launch successful, but price drop. I felt like being hit by the rocket debris. I did not expect it to behave like this. However, I broke my stop loss rule for this one. Didn't sell because I'm thinking those poor fund managers that bought at RM4.00 would like to see their money back. So, going to hold it a little bit longer.


L&G: I sold a little bit during the last correction as the price broke through my cut loss level. Kena tipu. If didn't sell, I would have cleared myself of this long term misery by today. Chua Ma Yu really buying ah? I hate rumours. Hard to play. I prefer stocks without rumours. At least everyone don't know what I don't know (the only rumours that I get is from The Star, Business Times or The Edge).


Masteel: Still on the uptrend. Bought a few times into this counter. The last correction gave me a scare, luckily it recovered quickly. Influenced by the report from Asia Analytica SB. They say estimated EPS RM0.22 for 2006. Looks like heading into clear sailing until 1.40. What if the market values it at PER 10x? Am I starting to count chicks....?

Sanichi, Notion, Mems, BCTTech

Some Mesdaq industrial counters that I hold:


Sanichi: Another buy signal, is it going to move this time? My friend is bored, I'm also bored but the waiting continues.


Notion: Bought this 10 months ago for its fundamental reasons. Long term trend is still up, waiting for it to break new high. Bumi issue in the planning, then transfer to main board. So got many "reasons" to push it up. Anyway, did you notice the increase in number of "advertisement" for this counter?


Mems: Promise of contracts never come. Kena tipu. Wait some more or move on? An ascending triangle in formation.


BCTTech: Bought this because it looks like it is going to make a wave 3. Weekly chart points up with increasing volume.

Still In The Red

What a bull for the last 6 months! Unfortunately, I'm still in the red. Yes, still in the red. The losses in 2004 and 2005 was brutal to me. All because of the penny shares and warrants that I played. A summary of lessons learned in those years:
1. Do not accept 100% of analyst report, also do not accept 100% of others opinion (bloggers, discussion group etc)
2. There are no mother-of-all-tools in technical analysis, you need to combine the indicators
3. Be patient for gains (this also depends on the type of stock you buy, see also No. 8)
4. Run fast during losses (see also No. 8)
5. Plan your trade, trade your plan (be discipline)
6. Stalk a stock until all indicators are favorable (see also No. 2)
7. Look at the big picture (themes, general sentiment etc)
8. Trade stocks that suit your personality (slow and steady? fast and furious?)
9. Don't average down, average up instead
10. Always improve yourself

I'm still surviving, still learning the trickery of the stock market. My performance for 2006? Well it started with 57% loss and ended with 20% loss (or about 53% gain).

The Pro

I don't know what to say. The pro trader Michael keeps coming back to this blog to give a word or too. If this blog is so bad, so what make him/her keep coming back? There is no information from this blog that are any used to him/her.

Maybe he/she has won so much money that he/she has nothing to do but to give "advice" to the novices. Boredom? I can imagine the sadistic smile in his/her face when I got it wrong.

Well...I know what will I do if I turn pro. Play the world market! The world is round. There will always be a market open some where. Why would I waste my time with stupid blogs? There are gazillion dollars/euros to be made. Indonesia has gained 200%, Nikkei looks like making a wave 3. India is still moving up. Shenzen is hot. Then you have the DAX, Nasdaq, NYSE....That is what I will do if I turn to pro.