Personal Problem

I'm only human. I'm having a tough time in my personal life now. The problem has affected my ability to think and trade. I don't know when I will get over of this. I have not look at the market seriously since my last post. For those few that is "addicted" to my post, it is time you find your own ways. It's better that you only rely on yourself for the trading decision. If you rely on others, you will surely fail in the long run.

Happy New Year to all of you. May we have a better prospect in 2008.

Put Warrant

CIMB is really active in issuing CW. If the market continues to go down, they are going to make whole lot of money. Do you notice that many warrants have expiry in July? This is suppose to be the bad months. So the chance of CIMB keeping your money is higher.

Anyway, I hope that CIMB will also consider issuing put warrant (in US, they call it put options). Then only fair to the traders, can make money in bull or bear. What say you, CIMB team?

Weekly Bullish & Bearish Counters

The following are bullish counters filtered using my weekly criteria for the week ending 14 Dec 2007:
AIC AIKBEE AIRPORT AJI ALAM AMTEK APM ASIABRN ASIAFLE ASIATIC ATIS ATLAN-WA ATURMJU AUTOAIR AUTOAIR-WA BERNAS BHIC BJCORP BJCORP-LC BJLAND BJLAND-LB BJTOTO BKAWAN BLDPLNT BONIA BONIA-WA BSDREIT BURSA CBIP CBSTECH CEPAT CEPCO CHINTEK CIHLDG CNLT CRESBLD DFZ-PC DIGI DKCORP DLADY EBCAP EDARAN EKIB EON F&N FAREAST FIMACOR GAMUDA GBH GBRIDGE GCE GNEALY GPLUS HALIFAX HALIFAX-WA HARISON HEXAGON HIGHTEC HINGYAP HLBANK HYTEXIN ICAP IJM IJMPLNT INSAS-LA INTEGRA INTI IOICORP JETSON JOBS KEINHIN KESM KIANJOO KLK KMLOONG KMLOONG-WA KNM KPOWER KRETAM KSENG KULIM KULIM-WB KWANTAS LFECORP LIONDIV LMCEMNT LOH&LOH LPI LTKM MAEMODE MAEMODE-WA MAGNA MAGNA-WA MAGNI MAGNUM MALPAC MAS MASTEEL MATRIX MHC MINETEC MISC MISC-O1 MMCCORP MODULAR MPCORP MPHB MTEAM MUH NAKA NESTLE NOTION NPC NSOP NVMULTI NYLEX PA PADINI PAHANCO-WA PANAMY PAOS PARKSON PBBANK PICORP PIE PLB PLB-WA POHKONG POHUAT POHUAT-WA PPB PUNCAK QUALITY RESINTC ROHAS RSAWIT RVIEW SARAWAK SATANG SBAGAN SILVER SILVER-LA SILVER-WA SIME SINDORA SKBSHUT SOP SOP-WA SPRITZR SSTEEL SUNINFR TAKAFUL TALIWRK TAMADAM TANAMAS TANCO TCHONG TDM TECGUAN TENAGA-LA TM TOMEI TRACOMA TRC TRC-WA TSH TWS TWSPLNT UBG UMCCA UNICO UTDPLT VADS VITROX WARISAN WATTA YIKON YTL-WB YTLCMT-LA YTLPOWR YTLPOWR-WA YUNKONG ZA-OSKSB

Total: 183
In: AMTEK ATLAN-WA BJTOTO DFZ-PC GAMUDA HINGYAP HYTEXIN KEINHIN MAEMODE-WA MATRIX MTEAM PANAMY PAOS POHUAT POHUAT-WA RESINTC SATANG SILVER-LA SILVER-WA TAMADAM TANCO TRACOMA WARISAN YTLCMT-LA ZA-OSKSB
Out: ALLIANZ APOLLO AZRB CCB CCMDBIO D&O DEGEM DELLOYD EFFICEN FFHB FORMOST HARNLEN-WA HLFG HPI INSBIO JAKS JAYCORP KEYWEST KRETAM-LA LANDMRK LKT NALURI OGAWA RAMUNIA-LA REDTONE SUNINFR-WA SUNWAY-WB TALAM-PA TRIPLC UNISEM YEELEE YTL

The following are bearish counters filtered using my weekly criteria for the week ending 14 Dec 2007:
ACOSTEC ADVENTA ADVPKG AHB AHB-WA AHP AIC-WB AIRASIA AIROCOM AISB AKN AKNMTEC ALAQAR ALCOM AMDB AMFIRST AMMB AMMB-WB AMWAY ANALABS ANCOM ANCOM-WA APB APLAND APLI ARK ASAS ASB ASB-WA ASCAP ASIAEP ASIAEP-WA ASIAPAC ASIAPLY ASTINO ASUPREM ATRIUM AVENTUR AWC AXREIT BANENG BASWELL BCB BCTTECH BDB BGYEAR BIG BIG-WA BINAIK BKOON BOLTON BORNOIL BOXPAK BPURI BREM BREM-WA BRIGHT CAELY CAMERLN CANONE CARLAW CARLSBG CAROTEC CENTURY-WA CFM CHANG CHASE CHASE-WA CHUAN CICB CIMA CMSB CNASIA CNI COCOLND COMMERZ COMMERZ-LA COMPUGT CRESNDO CSCENIC CVIEW CWORKS CYBERT CYMAO DAIBOCI DAYA DBHD DGATE DIGISTA-WA DISTECH DKLS DNP DOLMITE DOMINAN DPS DRBHCOM DXN E&O E&O-LA E&O-WA E&OPROP EBWORX ECM ECOFIRS ECOFIRS-WB EDEN EDEN-WA EFORCE EFUTURE EG EKOVEST EKOVEST-WA EKOWOOD EKSONS ELSOFT EMICO-WA EMIVEST ENGKAH ENGLOTC ENGTEX ENVAIR EONCAP EPIC EPMB EPMB-PB EQUINE EQUINE-LA ESCERAM ESTETIC EUPE EUROSP EVERGRN FABER FACBIND FARLIM FARMBES FASTRAK FBO FFHB-WB FIAMMA FOCAL FOCUS FRONTKN FSBM FURNWEB GABLUE GADANG GCORP GEFUNG GENTING GFB-WB GKENT GKENT-LA GLOBALC GLOMAC GLOSOFT GLOSOFT-WA GMUTUAL GOLDIS GOLSTA GOODWAY GPA GPACKET GPHAROS GSB GTRONIC GUINESS HAISAN HALIM HAPSENG HEXZA HIAPTEK HICITY HIL HOHUP HOOVER HSLEONG HUAAN HUATLAI-LA HUAYANG HUNZA HUNZPTY HUNZPTY-WA HWATAI HWATAI-WA IBHD IBRACO IDAMAN IDAMAN-LB IFCAMSC IGB ILB INFOTEC INGENS INGRESS INSAS IPMUDA IPOWER IQGROUP IRCB IREKA IRIS IRIS-PA IRIS-WA IRMGRP ISS ISYODA JADI JASKITA JAVA JAVA-WA JERASIA JHM JLAND JOHAN JOHOTIN JOTECH JTINTER KAMDAR KAMDAR-WA KANNAL KBES KBUNAI KELADI KEN KENANGA KEURO KFIMA KFM KHEESAN KHSB KIMHIN KOBAY KOMARK KOMARK-WA KONSORT KOSMO KOSSAN KOTRA KRAMAT KSL KUB KUCHAI L&G LATEXX LBALUM LBALUM-WA LBS LBS-LB LCHEONG-WA LCTH LDAUN LEESK LEWEKO LIENHOE LIIHEN LINEAR LINGUI LIONFIB LIPO LIQUA LIQUA-WA LNGRES LSTEEL LUSTER LYSAGHT M3NERGY MAA MAHJAYA MAHSING-WA MAICA MALTON MARCO MAXBIZ MAXTRAL MAYPAK MBFHLDG-WA MBMR MBSB MCMTECH MECHMAR MEDAINC MEDIA MEDIA-LA MEDIA-WA MELEWAR MELEWAR-WA MEMS MENANG MENANG-WA MERGE METACOR METECH METROK MEXTER MFCB MFLOUR MICROLN MIECO-WA MILUX MINHO MINPLY MINTYE MITHRIL MITRA MKLAND MKLAND-WA MMM MMM-WB MNRB MOBIF MRCB MSNIAGA MTDINFR MTRONIC MUDA MUIIND-LA MUIIND-LB MUIPROP MULPHAL MULPHAL-WA MULTICO MYCOM MYCRON NAIM NALURI NAMFATT NAMFATT-LB NARRA NATWIDE NCB NEPLINE NEPLINE-WA NEXNEWS-WA NGIUKEE NGIUKEE-WA NICORP NIHSIN NWP OCB OCTAGON-WA OFI OIB OILCORP OKA OLYMPIA OLYMPIA-WA ONASTEL OPCOM OSK-WB OSKPROP OSKPROP-WA OSKVI PACMAS PALETTE PANTECH PARAGON PASDEC PATIMAS-WA PBA PDZ PECD PELIKAN PENSONI PENTA PERISAI PERSTIM PHARMA PILECON PJDEV PJDEV-WB PJI PLENITU PMBTECH PMCAP PMCORP PMETAL-WB PMHLDG PMIND-WA POLYTWR POS PPHB PRDUREN PREMIUM PRESTAR PRESTAR-WA PRIME PRKCORP PRLEXUS PROTON PRTASCO PSIPTEK PTGTIN PTGTIN-WA PUNCAK-NA PWORTH RALCO RALCO-WA RANHILL RAPID RAPID-WA RCECAP REXIT RHYTHM RHYTHM-LA RHYTHM-WA RPB SAAG SAAG-WA SAMUDRA SAPCRES SAPCRES-WA SAPIND SAPRES SAUJANA SBCCORP SCIB-WA SCICOM SCIENTX SCOMI SCOMIMR SCOPE SDRED SEAL SEG SERNKOU SERSOL SHH SINORA SITATT SKPRES SMI SMISCOR SMPC-WA SMRTECH SPB SPK SPSETIA SRIDGE SRII SSTEEL-LA STAMCOL STAMCOL-WA STAREIT STEMLFE STONE SUBUR SUIWAH SUMATEC SUNRISE SUPER SUPERMX SYMPHNY-WA TA TA-WB TAFI TAKASO TALAM TAMADAM-WA TAMCORP TANCO-WA TAWIN TCUBES TDEX TEBRAU TEKALA TEKSENG TEXCYCL TGOFFS TGOFFS-WA TGUAN TIENWAH TIME TIMECOM TIMWELL TITAN TMCLIFE TMS TNLOGIS TOMYPAK TONGHER TOPGLOV TOYOCEM TOYOINK TRIUMPL TSRCAP TSTORE TWSCORP UAC UBB UCHITEC UDSCAP UDSCAP-WA UEMBLDR UEMWRLD UKB UMS UMSNGB UPA UTUSAN VINTAGE VIS VIZTEL WANGZNG WEIDA WELLI WIDETEC WIJAYA WILLOW WONG WTHORSE WWCABLE WWTKH-LA YECHIU YHS YILAI YINSON YLI YNHPROP YOKO-WA YSPSAH YTLLAND YTLLAND-PA ZECON ZECON-WA

Total: 525
In: ADVENTA ADVPKG AHB-WA ANCOM BINAIK CANONE CENTURY-WA CIMA COCOLND COMMERZ COMMERZ-LA COMPUGT DGATE DKLS ECOFIRS EFUTURE EPMB-PB EQUINE-LA ESTETIC FABER FFHB-WB FOCUS GOLDIS GOLSTA GPHAROS HUATLAI-LA IDAMAN-LB IRIS-PA JOHAN KAMDAR KAMDAR-WA KHEESAN KHSB KOTRA KUB LBS-LB LYSAGHT MAA MBMR MEDIA-LA MEDIA-WA METACOR MICROLN MUIIND-LA NALURI NEXNEWS-WA NICORP OCTAGON-WA OLYMPIA-WA PDZ PJI PMIND-WA PRKCORP RPB SAUJANA SBCCORP SCIB-WA SINORA SPSETIA STONE SUIWAH SUPER TAKASO TANCO-WA TRIUMPL TWSCORP UBB UMS WIDETEC WWTKH-LA YOKO-WA
Out: AHEALTH AIM CENBOND CHEETAH DENKO-WA DIJACOR DISCOMP DKSH DVM FAJAR GREENYB HEVEA HEVEA-WA HOVID HUMEIND IMASPRO INIX INSAS-WA JETSON-LA JMI JMR JTIASA K1 KAF KASSETS KHIND KLCITY KPSCB LAYHONG LCHEONG MARCO-WA METALR METROD MISC-CA MITHRIL-LA MITHRIL-WB MLAB MNC MTEAM N2N NTPM OCNCASH OPENSYS PARAMON PK POHUAT-WA PORTRAD PPG PTB REX RUBEREX SCIPACK SCOMIEN SHCHAN-WA SMI-LA SMI-LB SYMPHNY TECFAST TPC ULICORP UMLAND VERSATL WELLCAL YAHORNG YONGTAI YTLE

Note: Total number of bearish counters have increase from 520 to 525 while the total number of bullish counters have decrease from 190 to 183.

Whipsawed

Aiyah....got whipsawed again. The trends that I was hoping to be strong crumbled. The profit that I had vanished. Some turned into losses.

The correction in HK is still continuing. I was hoping that it will built a base at 28k but now it seems that it is going to 25.5k. I wonder why HK always have a sudden drop after lunch time. Is it because the people over there had a heavy lunch and felt drowsy? Is it because the Europeans just woke up and started selling? I wonder why.

Shanghai looks like it is going to break 4.9k, well if that happens, there is no more uptrendline to support it!

For KLCI, I think that as long as it is above 1380, we can still hope for some rally (CNY? Election?) Can we?

Trading CWs

So many CWs, will the quantity make it less valuable? My trade are all consist of CWs now. No more Mesdaq or penny shares. When the bulls come, it will be like heaven! Of course when the bears come, it will be like hell.

Anyway, my weekly filter says the following are bullish:
KLSE: Bjtoto, Bursa, IOICorp, Maybank, PBBank and TM
HKSE: MTR, Sinopec, Chmobil

I can't find an entry point for Bursa. Missed my chance, so I will forget about it. For Maybank, it has just come out of downtrend, so I will wait for the base building first before deciding on it. In IOICorp case, I sold out this one, and cannot find a good reentry point.

For the HKSE counters, I only like Sinopec as it gives the best signal among the 3. For MTR, the premium for the CW is quite high. No way I'm getting into it. MTR looks interesting and continues to go up. It is overbought, maybe I can still get into MTR-C1.

It's very volatile this few days, one day up, one day down. I think the best is to enter a little bit. You must realize, it's festivity time. When people are happy, they will be careless with their money and will end up with buy buy buy.

Bullish and Bearish Stocks

For the week ending 7 Dec 2007, my weekly filter says the following are bullish (new, established, old):
AIC AIKBEE AIRPORT AJI ALAM ALLIANZ APM APOLLO ASIABRN ASIAFLE ASIATIC ATIS ATURMJU AUTOAIR AUTOAIR-WA AZRB BERNAS BHIC BJCORP BJCORP-LC BJLAND BJLAND-LB BKAWAN BLDPLNT BONIA BONIA-WA BSDREIT BURSA CBIP CBSTECH CCB CCMDBIO CEPAT CEPCO CHINTEK CIHLDG CNLT CRESBLD D&O DEGEM DELLOYD DIGI DKCORP DLADY EBCAP EDARAN EFFICEN EKIB EON F&N FAREAST FFHB FIMACOR FORMOST GBH GBRIDGE GCE GNEALY GPLUS HALIFAX HALIFAX-WA HARISON HARNLEN-WA HEXAGON HIGHTEC HLBANK HLFG HPI ICAP IJM IJMPLNT INSAS-LA INSBIO INTEGRA INTI IOICORP JAKS JAYCORP JETSON JOBS KESM KEYWEST KIANJOO KLK KMLOONG KMLOONG-WA KNM KPOWER KRETAM KRETAM-LA KSENG KULIM KULIM-WB KWANTAS LANDMRK LFECORP LIONDIV LKT LMCEMNT LOH&LOH LPI LTKM MAEMODE MAGNA MAGNA-WA MAGNI MAGNUM MALPAC MAS MASTEEL MHC MINETEC MISC MISC-O1 MMCCORP MODULAR MPCORP MPHB MUH NAKA NALURI NESTLE NOTION NPC NSOP NVMULTI NYLEX OGAWA PA PADINI PAHANCO-WA PARKSON PBBANK PICORP PIE PLB PLB-WA POHKONG PPB PUNCAK QUALITY RAMUNIA-LA REDTONE ROHAS RSAWIT RVIEW SARAWAK SBAGAN SILVER SIME SINDORA SKBSHUT SOP SOP-WA SPRITZR SSTEEL SUNINFR SUNINFR-WA SUNWAY-WB TAKAFUL TALAM-PA TALIWRK TANAMAS TCHONG TDM TECGUAN TENAGA-LA TM TOMEI TRC TRC-WA TRIPLC TSH TWS TWSPLNT UBG UMCCA UNICO UNISEM UTDPLT VADS VITROX WATTA YEELEE YIKON YTL YTL-WB YTLPOWR YTLPOWR-WA YUNKONG

For the week ending 7 Dec 2007, my weekly filter says the following are bearish (new, established, old):
ACOSTEC AHB AHEALTH AHP AIC-WB AIM AIRASIA AIROCOM AISB AKN AKNMTEC ALAQAR ALCOM AMDB AMFIRST AMMB AMMB-WB AMWAY ANALABS ANCOM-WA APB APLAND APLI ARK ASAS ASB ASB-WA ASCAP ASIAEP ASIAEP-WA ASIAPAC ASIAPLY ASTINO ASUPREM ATRIUM AVENTUR AWC AXREIT BANENG BASWELL BCB BCTTECH BDB BGYEAR BIG BIG-WA BKOON BOLTON BORNOIL BOXPAK BPURI BREM BREM-WA BRIGHT CAELY CAMERLN CARLAW CARLSBG CAROTEC CENBOND CFM CHANG CHASE CHASE-WA CHEETAH CHUAN CICB CMSB CNASIA CNI CRESNDO CSCENIC CVIEW CWORKS CYBERT CYMAO DAIBOCI DAYA DBHD DENKO-WA DIGISTA-WA DIJACOR DISCOMP DISTECH DKSH DNP DOLMITE DOMINAN DPS DRBHCOM DVM DXN E&O E&O-LA E&O-WA E&OPROP EBWORX ECM ECOFIRS-WB EDEN EDEN-WA EFORCE EG EKOVEST EKOVEST-WA EKOWOOD EKSONS ELSOFT EMICO-WA EMIVEST ENGKAH ENGLOTC ENGTEX ENVAIR EONCAP EPIC EPMB EQUINE ESCERAM EUPE EUROSP EVERGRN FACBIND FAJAR FARLIM FARMBES FASTRAK FBO FIAMMA FOCAL FRONTKN FSBM FURNWEB GABLUE GADANG GCORP GEFUNG GENTING GFB-WB GKENT GKENT-LA GLOBALC GLOMAC GLOSOFT GLOSOFT-WA GMUTUAL GOODWAY GPA GPACKET GREENYB GSB GTRONIC GUINESS HAISAN HALIM HAPSENG HEVEA HEVEA-WA HEXZA HIAPTEK HICITY HIL HOHUP HOOVER HOVID HSLEONG HUAAN HUAYANG HUMEIND HUNZA HUNZPTY HUNZPTY-WA HWATAI HWATAI-WA IBHD IBRACO IDAMAN IFCAMSC IGB ILB IMASPRO INFOTEC INGENS INGRESS INIX INSAS INSAS-WA IPMUDA IPOWER IQGROUP IRCB IREKA IRIS IRIS-WA IRMGRP ISS ISYODA JADI JASKITA JAVA JAVA-WA JERASIA JETSON-LA JHM JLAND JMI JMR JOHOTIN JOTECH JTIASA JTINTER K1 KAF KANNAL KASSETS KBES KBUNAI KELADI KEN KENANGA KEURO KFIMA KFM KHIND KIMHIN KLCITY KOBAY KOMARK KOMARK-WA KONSORT KOSMO KOSSAN KPSCB KRAMAT KSL KUCHAI L&G LATEXX LAYHONG LBALUM LBALUM-WA LBS LCHEONG LCHEONG-WA LCTH LDAUN LEESK LEWEKO LIENHOE LIIHEN LINEAR LINGUI LIONFIB LIPO LIQUA LIQUA-WA LNGRES LSTEEL LUSTER M3NERGY MAHJAYA MAHSING-WA MAICA MALTON MARCO MARCO-WA MAXBIZ MAXTRAL MAYPAK MBFHLDG-WA MBSB MCMTECH MECHMAR MEDAINC MEDIA MELEWAR MELEWAR-WA MEMS MENANG MENANG-WA MERGE METALR METECH METROD METROK MEXTER MFCB MFLOUR MIECO-WA MILUX MINHO MINPLY MINTYE MISC-CA MITHRIL MITHRIL-LA MITHRIL-WB MITRA MKLAND MKLAND-WA MLAB MMM MMM-WB MNC MNRB MOBIF MRCB MSNIAGA MTDINFR MTEAM MTRONIC MUDA MUIIND-LB MUIPROP MULPHAL MULPHAL-WA MULTICO MYCOM MYCRON N2N NAIM NAMFATT NAMFATT-LB NARRA NATWIDE NCB NEPLINE NEPLINE-WA NGIUKEE NGIUKEE-WA NIHSIN NTPM NWP OCB OCNCASH OFI OIB OILCORP OKA OLYMPIA ONASTEL OPCOM OPENSYS OSK-WB OSKPROP OSKPROP-WA OSKVI PACMAS PALETTE PANTECH PARAGON PARAMON PASDEC PATIMAS-WA PBA PECD PELIKAN PENSONI PENTA PERISAI PERSTIM PHARMA PILECON PJDEV PJDEV-WB PK PLENITU PMBTECH PMCAP PMCORP PMETAL-WB PMHLDG POHUAT-WA POLYTWR PORTRAD POS PPG PPHB PRDUREN PREMIUM PRESTAR PRESTAR-WA PRIME PRLEXUS PROTON PRTASCO PSIPTEK PTB PTGTIN PTGTIN-WA PUNCAK-NA PWORTH RALCO RALCO-WA RANHILL RAPID RAPID-WA RCECAP REX REXIT RHYTHM RHYTHM-LA RHYTHM-WA RUBEREX SAAG SAAG-WA SAMUDRA SAPCRES SAPCRES-WA SAPIND SAPRES SCICOM SCIENTX SCIPACK SCOMI SCOMIEN SCOMIMR SCOPE SDRED SEAL SEG SERNKOU SERSOL SHCHAN-WA SHH SITATT SKPRES SMI SMI-LA SMI-LB SMISCOR SMPC-WA SMRTECH SPB SPK SRIDGE SRII SSTEEL-LA STAMCOL STAMCOL-WA STAREIT STEMLFE SUBUR SUMATEC SUNRISE SUPERMX SYMPHNY SYMPHNY-WA TA TA-WB TAFI TALAM TAMADAM-WA TAMCORP TAWIN TCUBES TDEX TEBRAU TECFAST TEKALA TEKSENG TEXCYCL TGOFFS TGOFFS-WA TGUAN TIENWAH TIME TIMECOM TIMWELL TITAN TMCLIFE TMS TNLOGIS TOMYPAK TONGHER TOPGLOV TOYOCEM TOYOINK TPC TSRCAP TSTORE UAC UCHITEC UDSCAP UDSCAP-WA UEMBLDR UEMWRLD UKB ULICORP UMLAND UMSNGB UPA UTUSAN VERSATL VINTAGE VIS VIZTEL WANGZNG WEIDA WELLCAL WELLI WIJAYA WILLOW WONG WTHORSE WWCABLE YAHORNG YECHIU YHS YILAI YINSON YLI YNHPROP YONGTAI YSPSAH YTLE YTLLAND YTLLAND-PA ZECON ZECON-WA

MISC

MISC Monthly Chart

I have been fooled many times in this counter. Took quite a hit with the CWs. Really got bruised and double black eyes. Is this time the real one? Please, not another fake breakout.

Note: I have open position in MISC-CD.

Stalking BJToto

BJtoto Weekly Chart

Trap within a tight range.

Fear!

Why do we fear? Fear comes due to the lack of knowledge.

When I was small, I am scare of the dark. I am scared that something may jump out from the dark. I am scared because I don't know what is there lurking in the dark.

When you see a tiger, why do you fear? Do you fear because it can eat you? No, you fear because you know that you can't do anything to prevent the tiger from eating you. You fear because you cannot defend yourself.

Why do some people get butterflies before the exam but others just act normally? The former because lack of preparation but the later has prepared well.

We fear because we don't have the information that will erase our fear.

Can we erase our fear? Yes and no. You cannot erase your fear if you are lazy to seek the answer of your fear. You cannot erase your fear if you do not accept the answer to your fear.

You will be able to erase your fear when you seek and accept the answer to your fear.

Why do you think that playing CWs are dangerous? Why do you fear it so much? Only 6 months of lifetime. The volatility? People has made lots of money from it, the opposite is also true. The difference between these two groups of people is that the former knows the rules of the game while the later knows nothing.

Nothing is free. You got to learn the rules of the game. You got to learn about yourself. Then only you will erase your fear.

When you have overcame your fear, you will look at those people that have the same fear when you were ignorant, you will smile to yourself and know that you have the edge against them in this game.

Stalking Resorts

Resorts Weekly Chart

Trap within an uptrend channel. I'm still waiting for the buy signal.

1st Tier Moving Now

Looks like the big boys are making a move now:

TM: Broke out from strong resistance at 11.00.
Tenaga: Ended it's downtrend.
YTLPower: Broke out from channel.
Maybank: Still in base building.
Commerz: Range bound trading (10.10 to 11.50)
Genting: Range bound trading (7.50 to 8.50)
Resorts: At lower end of channel. Looks like going back up.
Bursa: Still under correction.
YTL: To challenge 9.00.
IJM: Base building at 8.00

This could be the beginning of the year-end rally.

CW & W

The following HK with CWs has given me the 1st buy signal: Cheungk, HWL, MTR & Sinopec.
For Malaysia, only TM (again) and YTL has given me buy signal. I'm deciding whether to intepret it as continuation of uptrend signal or just a rebound signal.

In addition to that YTLPower has also rallied. It is trap in an uptrend channel. How far can it go? Is the warrant a good play?

Uptrend Counters

My list of uptrend counters at various stages (new, established, old, oscillating) for the week ending 30 Nov 2007. The list is obtained using only weekly criteria (EMAs & MACD).

AIC AIKBEE AIRPORT AJI ALAM ALLIANZ APM APOLLO ASIAFLE ASIATIC ATIS ATLAN-WA ATURMJU AUTOAIR AUTOAIR-WA AZRB BERNAS BHIC BJCORP BJCORP-LC BJLAND BJLAND-LB BKAWAN BLDPLNT BONIA BONIA-WA BSDREIT BURSA CBIP CBSTECH CCB CCK CEPAT CEPCO CHINTEK CIHLDG CNLT COMPUGT CRESBLD D&O DBE DEGEM DELLOYD DFZ-PA DIGI DKCORP DLADY EBCAP EDARAN EFFICEN EKIB EON F&N FAREAST FCW FFHB FIMACOR FORMOST GBH GBRIDGE GCE-WA GNEALY GPERAK-NA GPLUS HAIO HALIFAX HALIFAX-WA HAPSENG HARISON HARNLEN HARNLEN-WA HARVEST HEXAGON HIGHTEC HLBANK HPI HUPSENG ICAP IE IJM IJMPLNT INCKEN INSAS-LA INSBIO INTEGRA INTI IOICORP ITRONIC JAKS JPK KENMARK KESM KFC KLCCP KLK KMLOONG KMLOONG-WA KNM KPOWER KRETAM KRETAM-LA KRETAM-WA KSENG KULIM KULIM-WB KWANTAS LANDMRK LIONCOR LIONDIV LKT LOH&LOH LPI LTKM MAEMODE MAGNA MAGNA-WA MAGNI MAGNUM MAS MENTIGA MERCES MERCURY MHC MINETEC MITHRIL-LB MITRA-WB MMCCORP MMM-PA MPCORP MPHB MTEAM MUH NESTLE NPC NSOP NVMULTI NYLEX PA PADINI PANAMY PAOS PBBANK PERMAJU PICORP PIE PJBUMI PLB PLB-WA PLUS POHKONG PPB QSR RAMUNIA-LA REDTONE RSAWIT RVIEW SBAGAN SDKM SILVER SILVER-WA SIME SINDORA SKBSHUT SOP SOP-WA SPRITZR SSTEEL TAKAFUL TALAM-PA TALIWRK TANAMAS TCHONG TDM TECGUAN TENAGA-LA TM TOMEI TRC TRC-WA TRIPLC TSH TWS TWSPLNT UBG UMCCA UNICO UTDPLT VADS WATTA YEELEE YIKON YTL YTLPOWR YTLPOWR-WA YUNKONG ZA-OSKSB

Downtrend Counters

My list of downtrend counters at various stages (new, established, old, oscillating) for the week ending 30 Nov 2007. The list is obtained using only weekly criteria (EMAs & MACD).

ABRIC-WA ACOSTEC ADVPKG AEM AFG AHB AHEALTH AIC-WB AIM AIRASIA AIROCOM AISB AKN AKNMTEC ALAQAR ALCOM AMFIRST AMMB AMMB-WB AMWAY ANALABS ANCOM-WA APB APEX APLAND APLI ARK ASAS ASB ASB-WA ASIABRN-WA ASIAEP ASIAEP-WA ASIAPAC ASIAPLY ASTINO ASUPREM ATRIUM AVENTUR AWC AXREIT BANENG BASWELL BCB BCTTECH BDB BERTAM BGYEAR BIG BIG-WA BKOON BOLTON BORNOIL BORNOIL-WA BPURI BREM BREM-WA CAELY CAMERLN CARLAW CARLSBG CAROTEC CCM CENBOND CHASE CHASE-WA CHEETAH CHOOBEE CICB CMSB CNASIA CNI COCOLND COMMERZ CONNECT CRESNDO CSCENIC CWORKS CYBERT CYL CYMAO DAIBOCI DAYA DBHD DIALOG DISCOMP DISTECH DKLS DNP DOLMITE DOMINAN DRBHCOM DXN E&O E&O-WA E&OPROP EBWORX ECM ECOFIRS-WB EDEN EDEN-WA EFORCE EG EG-LA EKOVEST EKOVEST-WA EKOWOOD EKSONS EMICO EMICO-WA EMIVEST ENGKAH ENGLOTC ENGTEX ENVAIR EONCAP EPMB EPMB-WA EQUINE ESCERAM ESSO EUPE EVERGRN EVERMAS FABER FACBIND FAJAR FARLIM FARMBES FASTRAK FBO FCW-WA FIAMMA FOCAL FOCUS FSBM FURNWEB GABLUE GADANG GEFUNG GENTING GFB-WB GKENT GKENT-LA GLOBALC GLOMAC GLOSOFT GMUTUAL GOLSTA GPA GPACKET GRANFLO GREENYB GSB GTRONIC GUANCHG GUINESS HAISAN HALIM HEVEA HEVEA-WA HEXZA HIAPTEK HICITY HIL HIRO HOHUP HOOVER HOVID HSLEONG HUAAN HUAYANG HUMEIND HUNZPTY HUNZPTY-WA HWATAI HWATAI-WA HYTEXIN IBRACO ICP IDAMAN IFCAMSC IGB ILB IMASPRO INFOTEC INGENS INGRESS INIX INSAS INSAS-WA IPMUDA IPOWER IQGROUP IREKA IRIS IRIS-WA IRMGRP ISS ISYODA JADI JASKITA JAVA JAVA-WA JERASIA JHM JLAND JMI JMR JOHOTIN JOTECH JTIASA K1 KAF KANNAL KASSETS KBUNAI KELADI KEN KENANGA KEURO KFIMA KHIND KIMHIN KLCITY KNUSFOR KOBAY KOMARK KOMARK-WA KONSORT KOSMO KOSSAN KOTRA KPSCB KRAMAT KSL KUCHAI KURASIA L&G LATEXX LAYHONG LBALUM LBALUM-WA LBS LCHEONG LCHEONG-WA LCTH LDAUN LEESK LEWEKO LIENHOE LIIHEN LINEAR LINGUI LIONFIB LIPO LIQUA LIQUA-WA LNGRES LSTEEL LUSTER M3NERGY MAHJAYA MAICA MALTON MAMEE-WA MARCO MARCO-WA MAXTRAL MAYPAK MBFHLDG-WA MCMTECH MECHMAR MEDAINC MEDIA MEDIA-LA MELEWAR MELEWAR-WA MEMS MENANG MENANG-WA METALR METROD METROK MEXTER MFCB MFLOUR MICROLN MIECO-WA MILUX MINHO MINTYE MISC-CA MITHRIL MITHRIL-LA MITHRIL-WB MITRA MKLAND MKLAND-WA MNC MOBIF MQTECH MRCB MSNIAGA MTDINFR MUDA MUDAJYA MUIIND-LB MUIPROP MULPHA-WA MULPHAL MULPHAL-WA MULTICO MYCOM MYCRON N2N NAIM NAMFATT NAMFATT-LB NARRA NATWIDE NEPLINE NEPLINE-WA NEXNEWS-WA NGIUKEE NGIUKEE-WA NIHSIN NIKKO NTPM OCB OCNCASH OFI OIB OILCORP OKA OLYMPIA ONASTEL OPCOM OSK OSK-WB OSKPROP OSKPROP-WA OSKVI PACMAS PALETTE PANTECH PARAGON PARAMON PASDEC PATIMAS-WA PBA PCCS PDZ PECD PELIKAN PENSONI PENTA PERISAI PERSTIM PHARMA PILECON PJDEV PJDEV-WB PJI PK PLENITU PMCAP PMCORP PMHLDG PNEPCB POHUAT-WA POLYTWR POS PPG PPHB PRDUREN PREMIUM PRESTAR PRESTAR-WA PRIME PRLEXUS PROTON PRTASCO PSIPTEK PTB PTGTIN PTGTIN-WA PUNCAK-NA PWORTH QCAPITA QUALITY RALCO RAMUNIA-WA RANHILL RCI REX REXIT RHYTHM RUBEREX SAAG SAAG-WA SAMUDRA SAPCRES SAPCRES-WA SAPIND SAPRES SBCCORP SCIB SCIB-WA SCICOM SCIENTX SCIPACK SCOMI SCOMIEN SCOMIMR SCOPE SDRED SEAL SEG SERNKOU SERSOL SHH SINORA SITATT SKPRES SMI SMI-LB SMISCOR SMRTECH SPB SPK SPSETIA SRII STAMCOL STAMCOL-WA STAREIT STEMLFE SUBUR SUMATEC SUNCRN SUNRISE SUPERMX SYMPHNY SYMPHNY-WA TA TA-WB TAFI TALAM TAMADAM-WA TAMCORP TANJONG TCUBES TDEX TEBRAU TECFAST TEKALA TEKSENG TENAGA-CA TEXCYCL TGOFFS TGOFFS-WA TGUAN TIME TIMECOM TIMWELL TITAN TMS TOMYPAK TONGHER TOPGLOV TOYOCEM TOYOINK TPC TSM TSRCAP TSTORE UAC UCHITEC UDSCAP UDSCAP-WA UEMBLDR UEMWRLD UKB ULICORP UMLAND UMS UMSNGB UPA UTUSAN VERSATL VINTAGE VIS VIZTEL WANGZNG WEIDA WELLCAL WELLI WIJAYA WILLOW WONG WOODLAN WTHORSE WWCABLE YAHORNG YECHIU YGL YILAI YINSON YLI YNHPROP YOKO-WA YONGTAI YSPSAH YTLLAND YTLLAND-PA ZECON ZECON-WA

Bursa Pursuit Result

Ok, end of competition. I only manage about 14% return. The highest return point was 30%. Highest ranking achieved was around 600.

My failure to get better result is due to wrong position sizing. I have 250k to play, but I was trading just like my actual account size. At the beginning I was using only 30% of the capital to play, that was just at the time HK CWs were starting to move up. This 30% generated most of the profit. By the time I realize my position sizing problem, it was quite late for me to play catch up anymore. When I try to use the correct sizing, it was almost at the end of the bullishness.

Honestly, I didn't really understand the concept of position sizing until I play this game. So I learn something!

Insider Information?

Samgoss, I have nothing against you. It's your words against SC. But what your friend did (if this really happened) is wrong! SC must open up an investigate on their own people! Unfair advantage has been given to you and others as well. This is against the law.

Samgoss said...

Well..well..well oilcorp limit down !

I hv to thanks my buddy whose working in SC for informing me there might be some wrong doing in oilcorp ac 2 months ago, this is something highly confidential, thus i cannot post it here in my blog, but as known to u , i hv sold all my oilcorp for swap, luckly i choosed to believed him, need to belanja him some abalone n sharkfin emmmrrr.

I told u guys b4, FA for oilcorp is not bad there IF there is no wrong doing in its ac !..that's for sure ! too bad.. look at today volume.. i think d rumours will turn into reality !

As i said.. follow my every steps , I hv my reasons for swapping !

Oilcorp may limit down again 2molo,dont catch d falling knife ! ^V^

November 28, 2007 5:52 PM

Accounting Issue Again

Can you trust quarterly report again? Accounting is not + or - anymore. I thought it was a boring work. My perdagangan class was so boring that I decided to do something else. Oh boy, was I wrong. Accounting is itself an art. Look at Transmile, you need forensic expert to uncover the worms inside. What can the common man in the street do? Hard earn money gone. Cry also no use.

If one cannot trust the numbers, then how can you make your investment decision? My solution is chart reading. But this is not a simple as abc. Chart reading is an art also. At least your fate is in your own hands.

Talking about charts, HK seems to be stabilizing. Hopefully no more volatile moves. The first counter to come out of this consolidation maybe Cnooc. So watch out. No signals for Cnooc-C1 yet. Since it only have 3 months more to live, I'm staying out until I'm sure that Cnooc is going up. I think Cnooc-C2 is in the production pipeline. I think it's better to wait for it before making any decision.

A swarm of CWs

Mama mia... 8 new CWs to be listed on Tuesday and Wednesday: Bursa-CH, TM-CG, Toyota-C1, CCCC-C5, Sinopec-C2, Petroch-C5, ICBC-C5 and Chcoal-C1.

My Excel list of CWs is getting longer. Its becoming a chore to maintain it now. But no choice, if want to play, then need to work. No free lunch.

Time to bet on stocks, says guru

News item from The Standard.

Victor Cheung
Friday, November 23, 2007

It's time to bet on, says Hong Kong's stock guru Lee Shau-kee, who is ready to throw HK$10 billion into the market when everything has cleared up.

Lee, dubbed "Asia's Warren Buffett,"said he sees the silver lining in the gloomy sentiment. "I'll split the lump of money into two shots, that is HK$5 billion each," he told a media conference announcing his donation of HK$500 million to the University of Hong Kong.

The first half, he said, will be used in a couple of days, "I already spent between HK$1 billion and HK$2 billion to buy stocks in the market today [Thursday], and will splash out the rest tomorrow [Friday]." He said he still has to see when to spend the other HK$5 billion.

Lee recalled he pulled the siren last week that the market may go very volatile; it did, as the Hang Seng Index dropped some 3,000 points this week.

"But today it's not at all the same," Asia's second richest man said.

The negative news, he explained, has at least been partly exposed, like the huge losses brought about by the subprime crisis in Europe and North America, and the mainland's cooling measures to contain an overheating economy.

"Now seize your chance to buy low," he said.

A self-proclaimed analyst, Lee said all stocks have their elemental - metal, water, wood, fire and earth.

"I always have a preference over the metal or gold, which represents the financial sector such as insurance companies and banks," he said.

The 79-year-old new age geomancist recommended Hong Kong Exchange and Clearing (0388) and Chinese Merchants Bank (3968), "but I currently hold just a little of HKEx."

While having "little feeling" over water and wood elements, Lee also liked fire, the energy industry. "That means something burnable."

He endorsed CNOOC (0883) for the first time as a good choice of investment.

Earth element, representing real estate, is a little complicated, according to Lee.

"They are also good in the long term, but as I said last month, we should be cautious about those stocks."

$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

Well, if my neighbor selects his stocks based on fengshui, I will say bullshit and laugh at his face. But when Mr. Lee does that, I need to take notice and look up the charts. It's not only because he is rich (and got lots of bullets) and a pro in the stock market, but also many people take his advice seriously.

HSI Weekly Chart

The HSI weekly chart shows that breakout occurs on Sept 14 (25,000). The brown color line shows that the correction should halt at around 26,000. If this happens, then the bulls have a chance of pushing it to 32,000 (and above?). If not, then next strong support is at 23,000 (everyone will cry red tears if this happens).

So, keep an eye on those metal and fire stocks. It will be your Christmas present and hopefully CNY ang pow.

What not to buy?

If we know what not to buy, I think that it will save us from a lot of trouble.

My daily+weekly filter says that the following are in downtrend (359 counters in total) after the close of trading for 22 Nov 2007. Some counters may actually oscillates from up to down (range bound movement, i.e. YTL). As my filter is not intelligent enough, this type of movement will show up in uptrend/downtrend filter alternately. Almost all CWs are not captured in this filter as their history is too short.


ABRIC-WA ACOSTEC AFG AHEALTH AIRASIA AIROCOM AISB AKNMTEC ALCOM AMFIRST AMMB AMMB-WB ANCOM-WA APB APEX APLAND APLI ASIAPAC ASTINO ASUPREM ATRIUM AVENTUR AWC AXREIT BASWELL BCB BCTTECH BDB BERTAM BIG BIG-WA BJTOTO BKOON BOLTON BOXPAK BREM-WA CAMERLN CANONE CARLAW CARLSBG CAROTEC CCM CCMDBIO CENBOND CHASE-WA CNI COCOLND COMMERZ CRESNDO CSCENIC CYBERT CYMAO DAIBOCI DAYA DBHD DIALOG DISTECH DKLS DKSH DOLMITE DOMINAN DRBHCOM DXN E&OPROP EBWORX ECM EFORCE EG EKOVEST EKOVEST-WA EKOWOOD EKSONS ELSOFT EMICO EMICO-WA ENGLOTC ENGTEX EONCAP EPMB EQUINE ESCERAM EUPE FACBIND FARLIM FASTRAK FBO FOCAL FOCUS FSBM FTEC FURNWEB GABLUE GADANG GEFUNG GENTING GFB-WB GKENT GLOBALC GLOMAC GLOSOFT GMUTUAL GPA GPACKET GSB HALIM HEXZA HICITY HIL HOHUP HOOVER HUAAN HUATLAI HUAYANG HUNZA HUNZPTY HUNZPTY-WA IBRACO IFCAMSC IGB ILB INGRESS INIX INSAS INSAS-WA IPOWER IREKA IRIS IRIS-WA IRMGRP ISS JADI JASKITA JAVA JERASIA JHM JLAND JMR JOHOTIN JOTECH K1 KAMDAR KASSETS KELADI KEN KENANGA KEURO KFIMA KHIND KIMHIN KLCITY KOMARK KOMARK-WA KONSORT KOSMO KOSSAN KPSCB L&G LATEXX LBALUM LBALUM-WA LBICAP LBS LCTH LEESK LEWEKO LIIHEN LINEAR LINGUI LIONFIB LIPO LIQUA LIQUA-WA LNGRES LSTEEL M3NERGY MAHJAYA MALTON MARCO MBFHLDG-WA MCMTECH MECHMAR MEDAINC MELEWAR MELEWAR-WA MEMS MENANG METALR METROD METROK MEXTER MFCB MICROLN MIECO-WA MILUX MINHO MINTYE MISC-CA MITHRIL-WB MITRA MKLAND MKLAND-WA MNC MOBIF MQTECH MSNIAGA MTDINFR MUDA MUDAJYA MUIIND-LB MUIPROP MULPHAL-WA MULTICO MYCOM MYCRON N2N NAIM NAMFATT NAMFATT-LB NARRA NEPLINE NGIUKEE NGIUKEE-WA NIKKO NTPM OCB OFI OIB OLYMPIA ONASTEL OPCOM OSK OSK-WB OSKPROP OSKVI PACMAS PALETTE PARAMON PASDEC PECD PELIKAN PENSONI PENSONI-WA PERISAI PERSTIM PILECON PJDEV-WB PJI PK PMCAP PMCORP PMHLDG POHUAT-WA POLYTWR PPG PRDUREN PREMIUM PRESTAR PRESTAR-WA PRIME PROTON PRTASCO PSIPTEK PTGTIN PUNCAK-NA PWORTH RALCO RESORTS REXIT RHYTHM-WA SAAG SAAG-WA SAMUDRA SAPCRES SAPCRES-WA SAPRES SBCCORP SCIB SCIB-WA SCICOM SCIENTX SCOMIEN SCOMIMR SDRED SEAL SERNKOU SINORA SITATT SKPRES SMI SMI-LB SMISCOR SMPC SMPC-WA SMRTECH SOLUTN SPB SPK STAMCOL-WA STAREIT STEMLFE SUMATEC SUNCRN SUNRISE SYMPHNY SYMPHNY-WA TA TA-WB TAFI TAMADAM-WA TANJONG TCUBES TEBRAU TECFAST TEKALA TEKSENG TENAGA-CA TGUAN TIENWAH TIMECOM TIMWELL TITAN TMS TOMYPAK TOPGLOV TOYOCEM TPC TRACOMA TSM UCHITEC UDSCAP UEMBLDR UKB ULICORP UMSNGB UPA UTUSAN VERSATL VINTAGE VIZTEL WEIDA WELLCAL WELLI WIJAYA WONG WTHORSE WTK WWTKH-LA YHS YILAI YINSON YLI YNHPROP YSPSAH YTL YTL-WB YTLLAND YTLLAND-PA ZECON ZECON-WA

Bad November

Ok, I have been stop out of my last position. Bad November for me, but still manage to retain about 80% of the profit from October.

HK and China stocks has yet to stabilize. The CW for these counters are getting really attractive but I dare not do day trading. I just don't have the necessary tools or skills or mental strength for day trading.

Keep a lookout for S&P 500, if it breaks 1400, then confirm bear. I think it will break soon as Nasdaq100 has broken it's uptrendline. US presidential election is 1 year away, so I'm not sure when the decline will halt and go for a rally.

Anyway, I think Abdullah will be in bigger trouble if the stock market did not rally as the deadline for election is getting nearer each passing day. Well, you need money for campaign etc. You need to make the voters happy. In essence, you need to indirectly buy off their votes. Well, stock market is the same everywhere, politic is also the same everywhere because it involves human. Ok, enough of politic.

Santa Claus is Not Coming to Town

You better watch out, you better not cry,
You better not buy, I'm telling you why,
Santa Claus is not coming to town.

Hang Seng is going down, no end in sight,
Cause naughty bankers, that caused sub-prime,
Santa Claus is not coming to town.

The boys and girls at Wall Street,
Created toxic derivatives,
They screw everyone else,
But pay big fat bonus for themselves.

You better watch out, you better not cry,
You better not hope, I'm telling you why,
Santa Claus is not coming to town.

Santa Claus is not coming,
Santa Claus is not coming,
he's not coming to town........!!!!!!

P.S. He he he. Just to pass the boredom. Still waiting for the bottom.

KLCI Weekly Analysis

KLCI Monthly Chart

Trend is still up but weakening. Still above the 1994 high.

KLCI Weekly Chart

Trend is still up. But weakening. Maybe just consolidating?

KLCI Daily Chart

Still holding. Looks like base building. No worries until is close lower than 1377.

With the listing of Synergy on 30 Nov, according to OSK calculation, the index may jump 30 points!

So we shall wait for the year end rally, CNY rally and election rally. What is the next theme? HK theme is currently down. O&G is not moving. Plantation is still up. Banking is not moving.

I got a feeling that this may be the start of the end of a good bull run. One more dash and then over and wait for another 5 years.

Stalking TM

TM Weekly Chart

11.00 is a strong resistance. If it can close above this level, then expect more upside. If this happens, TM-CF is a good play. Note: I already have a initial position in TM-CF

Stalking YTL

YTL Weekly Chart

Stalking this counter. Bulls and bears are in equal strength. Going to buy YTL-CE if bulls win.

Vulture

This is the first time that I feel like a vulture, standing aside, looking at those HK CWs drop and drop. When is the time to pick? No signal yet.

TM & Genting

Those who walk in the corridors of power seems determined to see that KLCI goes up.

I'm stalking Genting and TM. I have an initial position in Genting-CG and looking to open one in TM-CF.

Just waiting for the right timing.

Two Words

"F*ck*d! Cut!"

That is how I think now. No need to queue and get that extra 1 cent. Just sell at market when the stop is hit. Be the first one to get through the door.

I think that HK CWs play are now over. Rebound here and there, that's the best. Maybe 1 to 2 months of consolidation. Today's cheap sale may be cheaper tomorrow. Jan expiration warrant will be in the immediate danger zone.

Another way to sense trouble: Look at the number of CW issues. If it suddenly increases, that means the pro thinks that the market is in trouble. Just remember, they lose if the underlying share goes up.

The bottom line is: Do not buy.

FTSE-BM Indexes Historical Data

I'm searching high and low for the FTSE-BM indexes historical data. The Mesdaq and 2nd Board Index has just been discontinued. So I can't analyze these two sectors anymore.

I know Yahoo finance do provided the indexes that I'm looking for. The problem is that they don't have the historical data.

Anyone that is reading this entry, if you have the historical data in Metastock format, can you please kindly share it with me? I can update it myself from Yahoo.

Shanghai & Hong Kong

SSE Composite Index Daily Chart

Uptrendline broken. Trouble ahead. I don't think it will go up much. The question is how deep will be the correction.

Hang Seng Index Daily Chart

Bearish divergence detected. Uptrendline still holding. Reward is not worth the risk.

Hang Seng China Enterprises Index Daily Chart

Uptrendline broken. Bearish divergence detected. I guess it is also correction time. How deep?

Conclusion: No buying for HK CWs until a clearer picture emerge.

Sold out by Bursa Malaysia Bhd.

I cannot believe it, I received an email from a 3rd party (IntegraStock.com.my) which tries to sell me some system to buy/sell stocks. The return email address is reply@integrastock.com.my. The origin IP address is different from the normal news email that I received from bursapursuit.com

I must admit, I did not read the fine print of the rules and regulation, but I don't think Bursa Malaysia Bhd is all0wed to released my personal information to a 3rd party! I don't recalled I have chosen to receive any email from any 3rd party.

This is a very unethical behavior from a big corporation in Malaysia.

Bursa Malaysia Bhd sold me out!

What will I do? I don't have the time to take this out officially but I know that this blog entry will be archived in Google's server forever.

Trading Money for Peace

When the odds in life is overwhelmingly against you, one need to find some kind of refuge.

My refuge is to listen to The Chant of Metta.

Young fan

Okay, I got a young fan that keeps asking me question :p

From my experience, playing stock can sometimes be very disruptive to our daily job. Why? We tend to follow the ups and downs on our screen. We are happy when it goes up, worried when it goes down. Most beginners will tend to follow this daily up and down. Every opportunity we have, we will check our favorite counter price. If you are in the office, you keep a screen on all the time. If you are on the move, you subscribe to sms services or check through your smart phone etc. I have been through that stage before until I trade using a longer time frame. If not, cannot get any job done lor. Boss will be angry ler.

Making money is not that easy as advertised. This is a money sucking industry. The stock exchange take some of it. Your broker take some of it. You win, you pay them, you lose, you still need to pay them. This is a minus-sum-game. No wonder they need new blood, if not how can sustain their profit? If making money is easy, why do the majority of us still hold a job? So that to sustain our trading blunders!

Furthermore, the stock market is not a same level playing field. In football, you have the premier league for the best of the best, then 2nd division for the average and the 3rd division for amateurs. In stock market, the amateur is fighting straight on with the fund managers, the hedge fund traders, the day traders, the contra traders and all sort of people. It's like Malaysia playing Brazil! Without any foundation, one will sure to lose money.

The amount of capital must be large enough. Using the 2% money management rule, to have any meaningful stop, one need at least 10k. With 2K, you can only afford to lose 40 per trade, where 26 is already the commission that you must pay.

As with any other profession, the foundation is important. One needs to learn the theory. With theory, one develops a system. The system is to prevent us from acting inconsistently/irrationally. Then we add a little bit of money management just in case we are caught by the black swan. To execute our trade, we need to have the confident to pull the trigger, that is to train the mind.

So, to my young fan. Learn this 3 important pillars. Google it, buy a book. But read, think, analyze. There are many resources you can get. I'm just too lazy to re-write it down.

I will not encourage you like Bursapursuit. I'm not Dennis Richie that can train you out of the farm. You need to learn it by yourself. I can only give you some guidelines based on what I know. I'm not a guru. So my advice should be analyzed properly.

For the rest of the questions, I decline to answer as I would prefer to remain anonymous.

Bulls vs Bears (26 Oct 2007)

Bulls vs Bears

Looks like the bulls are regaining back their strength.

I sold off almost all last Monday. Hey, I was spooked by this US market. But, someone always manage to push up the market before it closes.

Anyway, this time, I was discipline in cutting my losses. But the market turn right up after I cut. The previous time when I was not discipline in cutting my losses, the market when straight down. This shows that not only one need skills but also luck to win.

KLCI seems like it is going to break new high. I lost a few valuable position. Now, have to rebuilt it back. I will still go for the CWs for more bang per buck.

I have or trying to open position for the following CWs: IOICorp, Genting, KLK, PBBank, MISC, HWL and Cheungk.

SweeJoo, Kretam, AirAsia

SweeJoo Weekly Chart

Cloase at new high. How much can this go? Will it create a channel? Why are the insiders selling? I have an open position in this counter.

Kretam Weekly Chart

Within an uptrend channel. Can it break to the upside this time? Or will it fall back. I have an open position in Kretam-WA

AirAsia Weekly Chart

Is the correction really over? I have no open position in this counter. Still thinking.

Bulls vs Bears (24 Oct 2007)

The bears continue the assault.

Bulls vs Bears (23 Oct 2007)

No change.

Chicken run

'I still sold [PetroChina] way too soon.'

— Warren Buffett


'I sold PetroChina CWs too soon.'
— swifz

:p

I scrambled out like a chicken when the market drops. This time, when things are not clear in my mind, I run. The last time I didn't run, I was rolled over like roti canai. I'm obsessed with protecting my capital and profit. My mind is filled with questions.

Is it a correction? Is it the continuation of downtrend? Double-top? Bubble-top? Election-push up? Oil shock? Gold shock? Dollar shock? Year-end window dressing? Bonus time? Subprime? Rate-cut? Halloween horror?

Arrgghhh. Bounce up and down. Hard to read the charts.

Ok. Back to daytime work.

Bull vs Bear (22Oct 2007)

Bull vs Bear

Daily bears > daily bulls, weekly bears > weekly bulls.

Are we at the edge of a cliff?

Bull vs Bear (19 Oct 2007)

Bull vs Bear

Bulls continue to go down. KLCI looks like going down too. SSE looks toppish. HK looks troubling. US banking sector in trouble. Possible double top for FTSE & DAX. STI run seems to have ended. Trouble every where.

I have continued to reduce my HK CWs. Only left with Petroch and Chlife CWs. Next Monday, new batch of CWs will be out: Chcbc-C1, Chmerch-C1, HKEX-C4 and Zijin-C1. All issued during the high tide. So beware!

BTW, thanks to the HK CWs, my account finally goes into the black! So I took 40 months to get back all my tuition fees. Lets see whether I can maintain my performance.

Bull vs Bear (18 Oct 2007)

Bulls vs Bear

The bulls are generally down, while the bears are creeping up. Beware!

The current crazy theme is "covered warrant". Yes, anything got to do with CW, buy, buy, buy. This is really crazy. The premium has expanded tremendously. How long will this last?

Bull vs Bear (17 Oct 2007)

Bull vs Bear

I see that the bears are slowly creeping up. Daily bulls are down while weekly & monthly bulls are flat.

Not much action for Malaysian stock. Plantation stocks are doing well. Bursa continue to make new high. Oh...I missed out PBBank CW. People are so crazy about CWs again. This makes the CWs to go up very fast. No chance for me to buy.

HK CWs has gained tremendously. One has even score a 30% premium. Everyone is expecting it to continue to go up and up and up. But wait! Lee Shau Kee says sell above 30,000. That is one prominent investor. This call may just become a self fulfilling prophecy.

Anyway, I detected a bearish divergence signal on the HSI daily chart. So I decided to sell part of my CWs. Then again, I was really not comfortable everyone is just crazy.

Bull vs Bear (12 Oct 2007)

Bull vs Bear

Still flat. Fund managers, you all have your rendang and ketupak. Spice up a little bit the share market now.

HK H-shares continue the crazy ride. A nice little poem for everyone.

Direct train coming through
Prices goes up the roof
Who cares about valuation
As this is only a perception

H-shares go higher
Bubble gets bigger
Uptrendline get steeper
Players get greedier

Petroch, Cnooc and Sinopec
Buy buy buy, auntie and ah-pek
ICBC, BOC and Chlife
Going up very nice
CCCC, Shenhua and Chalco
Yes! Go go go

Party till Olympic?
Currently not yet panic
But beware!
The creeping shadow of the bear

If you are the last one to get on
You will surely hit by the train head-on


P.S. Currently I'm sick with a cold, sore throat and red eye. So no feeling at all.

Thou shall not compute the profit

I told myself many times, don't compute the open position profit. No no no. Especially in the middle of the week. Don't fantasize with the profit. No no no. But I did it yesterday. Oh boy, what a discomfort it gave me. It really entice me to take profit. Yes, it is a bubble. It was a bubble two weeks ago, it was a bubble a month ago, it was a bubble 6 months ago. But the bubble keeps growing bigger.

By thinking in terms of profit, I am not able to read the market correctly anymore, every small correction gives me the jitter. It gives me the urge to take profit. My inner self was battling out:take profit vs. follow the exit system. Wise traders says: "Let you profit run. Sell your laggard!" Oh man, how hard it is to follow this simple advice. Psychologically, I'm still trying to train my mental thinking. The book that I'm still reading is The Disciplined Trader: Developing Winning Attitudes by Mark Douglas. Reading is one thing, making the points as your habit is another thing.

Bull vs Bear (11 Oct 2007)

Bull vs Bear

Flat. No action on the Malaysian front while HK and SSE are hitting new high. But beware, HK is approaching 30,000 while SSE is approaching 6,000! Correction may be around the corner.

BOC A & H shares have broken out. Someone bought every share in BOC-C1 in the last few minutes until no sellers left. Crazy, the premium is too high now. Well 10% is consider high when most are trading at -1 to 1%. Unless BOCs move up, I think that BOC-C1 will drop back.

Sinopec also broken out today. Following the path of A-share. Hopefully, this laggard will be able to chase after the leaders Petroch & Cnooc.

I rearranged my HK CW by cutting out Cnooc and buying Sinopec. I am thinking that a breakout play should have stronger momentum to go higher and faster. Anyhow, I'm keeping my Petroch CW as it will be listed in SSE soon.

Looking out at IOICorp. On the verge of breaking out.

Bull vs Bear (10 Oct 2007)

Bull vs Bear

Numbers of bears stay flat while mix for the bulls.

S&P just launch the S&P Southeast Asia 40 Index. 3 Malaysian companies that are in the Top-10 of this index are IOICorp, Genting and Maybank. I was unable to get the rest of the 14 companies from Malaysia.

Anyhow, does that mean trading opportunity for IOICorp, Genting and Maybank?
IOICorp: Long term uptrend. Currently consolidating between 5.80 to 6.20.
Genting: Long term uptrend but losing momentum. Currently the bulls and the bears are battling it out. The possibility for the bulls to win is greater.
Maybank: Looks like a false break of uptrend. Good chance of holding above 11.50.

Out of this 3, I have position in IOICorp & Genting CWs.

Bull vs Bear (9 Oct 2007)

Bull vs Bear

Not much change. Generally, bulls are still in control.

Singtel

Singtel Daily Chart

Has everyone forgotten about Singtel-C1? It took me some effort to get into this counter. Singtel chart shows that it is moving up in a tight channel. Currently, Singtel-C1 is really lagging behind. With today's close, Singtel-C1 premium is -4%! The exercise price is in MYR but since SGD is appreciating against MYR, the exercise price in SGD has decreased. Why does it not trade at 0% premium (at least)? Maybe because Singtel tend to have a large swing of around 10 cents per day. This in affect means that if Singtel-C1 to trade with 0% premium, then it will also swing in the region of 20%. So quite dangerous if one gets the wrong entry.

Bull vs Bear (8 Oct 2007)

Bull vs Bear

Bulls up, bears flat.

Most of my portfolio is made up of HK CWs. It's kind of scary this few days where the price can suddenly go down the cliff and then up again. Luckily I still have a good margin. If not, definitely a stressful situation. A-shares of BOC, ICBC and China Life rallied so much today. It is as if these stocks is really determined to maintain a high premium over their comrades in HK. Will the HK H-shares keep up the momentum?

Bursa Pursuit Top 10

Bursa Pursuit Top-10 Ranking (5 Oct 2007)

Day 5 of competition, with an initial capital of MYR250,000.00, the No. 1 player now has MYR1,000,000.00!

I do not understand how can this happened. I wonder...

1. If these people are so damn good, are we the idiots that everyday lose money to them in the real game?
2. If you can earn 300% per week, why bother with the grand prize of MYR100,000.00?
3. What are they doing in a small market like Bursa Malaysia? Don't you want to be at Wall Street where the big money is?
4. Has the game simulate as close as the real game?
5. If you earn 300% per week, by week 6, will you have MYR1,024,000,000.00?
6. If No. 5 is true, will you own the whole wealth in Malaysia by the end of this year?

Bull vs Bear (5 Oct 2007)

Bull vs Bear

Strong jump in daily bulls. This is due to day and contra traders that pushed the price up fast. Let's see whether it will be sustained by the longer time frame traders/investors.

A-H Discount

Bubble bubble everywhere,
Play small play big but beware,
When the bubble pops,
Make sure your pants do not drop.

SSE has closed for one week. What will happen on next Monday? Does a week of holiday makes everyone trigger happy? Did you notice the discount between H and A-share of ICBC? It is now about 10%. It was 20% a month ago.

What if this happens to the others? Keep an eye on Chalco, Chlife and Sinopec. Original post at Dragon Zone.

Bull vs Bear (4 Oct 2007)

Bull vs Bear

No change. Market seems to be holding well.

My Pohkong seems to be acting out as in my dream. Can you believe that? My parents used to dream about 4D in their sleep but I dreamed about candlestick chart :p

Bull vs Bear (3 Oct 2007)

Bull vs Bear

No change in numbers. Waiting for the correction. Best if 1350 can hold.

Bull vs Bear (2 Oct 2007)

Bull vs Bear

Big jump in the number of bulls today. Index gap up and at daily overbought position. I guess that correction is imminent. The question is how much correction?

Bursa Pursuit 2 Oct 2007 Ranking

Today is day 2 of the trading competition. I cannot believe my eyes. I pinch myself. Only 2 days and the No. 1 player have already earn 60%!!! To think that I only started buying today and this guy is so far out already. Mama mia. The top-10 players are much better than George Soros or Warren Buffett.

Bull vs Bear (1 Oct 2007)

Bull vs Bear

Bulls continue to increase while bears continue to decrease. Today, I notice something crazy, the newly issued CWs are trading at a very high premium. HK market close, but the CWs rallied. Looks like people are scared of missing the boat. Anyway, for the Malaysian market, not many counters have rallied yet, so we are still at the beginning of a bull stage. It could pick up strength and it could still die off. The important point is risk control.

Bull vs Bear (28 Sept 2007)

Bull vs Bear

Daily & weekly bulls up, bears down. Monthly numbers about the same. So, 3rd quarter window dressing is over. What's up next?

KLCI Weekly Chart

My interpretation: The weekly chart is pointing upwards. However, the strength is suspected as the MACD is still negative. I feel more comfortable when MACD is in the positive region.

Anyway, I won't be too concern with the subprime problem. So as long as the market is in play, we play along (as long as a proper stop can be found).

My other holdings of Malaysian counters:
- Perisai (could be a mistake in entering this one, O&G play still taking a rest?)
- Pohkong (not yet move at all. Another mistake? But last night I dreamed that it shoot up :p).

Finally, talking about window dressing, doesn't it strike a fear in you (for those that invest through a mutual fund) that a fund manager must resort to dressing up a share price to give you an illusion of good performance? Doesn't this be consider as cheating?

Bull vs Bear (27 Sept 2007)

Bull vs Bear

Bull won! From this action and the KLCI chart, looks like the index is heading to 1400. I'm looking out for the following bluechips:
Genting: If can close above 8.20, then confirm break medium term downtrend channel.
Resorts: looks like going to challenge the upper channel at 4.50.
Plus: Broken medium term downtrend channel. Looking for a reasonable entry point.
PBBank: Looks like going to break 10.00
MISC: Broken medium term downtrend channel. Not sure about the strength.
IOICorp: 1st attempt at above 6.00 failed. Another attempt again?
KLK: Broken medium term downtrend channel. Looking on how is the possible correction going to be.
Gamuda: Challenging 9.00. Waiting for the appropriate time to enter (if any).

In addition to that, I notice that the steel players are moving now: Kinsteel, Masteel and Ornasteel.

This week, I opened new position in IOICorp-CE, Kretam-WA, Masteel and Singtel-C1. Hopefully no bad news to scare us anymore until CNY.

Bull vs Bear (26 Sept 2007)

Bull vs Bear

Looks like the bulls are slowly increasing in numbers. The attention has shifted to local counters today as HK is closed for the mid autumn festival.

Since the market is hot, more CWs are issued, the latest are from CIMB: Petroch-C4, Chlife-C4, Resorts-CD and TM-CF. All are in the money and will be listed on 28 Sept. Watch out for Petroch-C4, really undervalue as Petroch has rallied quite a lot.

Talking about CWs, I prefer individual stocks CW than basket CWs because it is easier to compute the intrinsic value for the former as compared to the later. For instance, the basket CW ZA-OSKSB, I can't even remember what does the basket contains. To get the intrinsic value, one need to find out the value of the components and this cannot be down easily. No wonder the ZA-OSKSB is so thinly traded. Anyway, the latest basket coming out will be from CIMB that comes with some catchy name: 3 Treasures and Black Gold. The basket consists of counters from 3 countries name Malaysia, Hong Kong and Singapore. It is hard enough to monitor the basket from the same country, I don't know how can one monitor from 3 countries. I don't think it is worth the effort at all.

Bull vs Bear (25 Sept 2007)

Bull vs Bear

Not much changes in the bulls and bears.

The euphoria for HK CWs have taken a rest. Look out for new CWs on 27 Sept: CCCC-C4, Chlife-C3, Angang-C1 & Cheungk-C1. As I'm using a trend following system, I need at least 7 trading days before I can decide whether to trade in these new issues of CWs.

Bull vs Bear (24 Sept 2007)

Bull vs Bear

A bigger change in the number of bulls (up) and bears (down) today. Looks like the HK spillover effect.

KLCI looks like going to challenge the previous high. I will get into more BM counters.

HK H-shares CWs are running riot. I dare not add anymore. Holding position in CCCC, Petroch, Cnooc, Chlife and ICBC. The last time I added when the counters are running (MPHB, Gamuda, Maxis), I became nervous and sold out with any sign of correction. Because of this, it turned out that I missed out the biggest moves. This time I try not to repeat the mistake. I will try to ride out the correction.

Bull vs Bear (21 Sept 2007)

Bull vs Bear

Short and medium term bears continue to go down. The rest no significant change.

Why are Malaysian counters not moving? Well, let's look into the Top-10 blue chips:
Maybank: Long term support has just broken, going down. No end in sight.
Commerz: Long term uptrend. Correction may be over and currently fighting to continue up.
PBBank: Long term uptrend and it seems possible that the correction is over. Trying to build a base at around 9.50.
Tenaga: Long term support broken. Going down and no end in sight.
TM: Long term support broken. Going down but much slower as compared with Tenaga. No end in sight.
Sime: Long term uptrend. Looks like correction is over and trying to push up higher.
IOICorp: Long term uptrend. Trying to break 6.00.
Genting: Long term uptrend. Correction may be over and in base building phase now.
MISC: Long term uptrend but still unable to break above 10.00. Correction may be over now and going for another attempt to the upside.
Resorts: Long term uptrend. Currently under correction mode and trading within a clearly defined uptrend channel.

So, looks like the bears are a little bit stronger for the top-10 blue chips. No wonder KLCI cannot go up.

Bull vs Bear (20 Sept 2007)

Bull vs Bear

Not much change in the bears but the number of bulls are slowly creeping up. With the crude oil at around USD80.00, the golden oil producers has started to move. I only notice them today.

Weekly Plantation Index

The weekly plantation index chart shows that the consolidation is over. The main contributor is of course IOICorp. This is my opinion for counters with warrants/CW:
IOICorp: Long term uptrend. Trying to break 6.00. I will try to get into IOICorp-CE.
KLK: Long term uptrend. Broke out of consolidation. But does not fulfill my buy signal yet.
Kmloong: Long term uptrend. Still in correction.
Kretam: Long term uptrend. Within a clearly defined channel. Currently in base building.
Kulim: Long term uptrend. Still in correction.
SOP: Long term uptrend. Making an ascending triangle. Warrant is too expensive to play.

Trading Competition

Show your skills with Bursa Pursuit.

Of course I have registered. I wanna try my luck with the 100k. Of course I will not use this pseudonym since I have to register using my real name (just in case I win something). The only thing I'm not happy is that the prize is deposited in a trust account. Not sure when one is allowed to use it for other purposes.

Competition starts on 1st October. What are you waiting for?

Bull vs Bear (19 Sept 2007)

Bull vs Bear

Barely noticeable change. Seems like we will continue to become a laggard market. Luckily we have some foreign CWs to play with.

Anyhow, let's look at the banking sector today. The following are my interpretation based on their weekly chart:
Affin: Long term uptrend but in consolidation mode now.
AMMB: Long term uptrend and it seems possible that the correction is over. Trying to build a base at around 4.00.
BIMB: Trendless.
Commerz: Long term uptrend and it seems possible that the correction is over. Trying to build a base at around 10.50.
EONCap: Trend pretty flat.
HLBank: Long term uptrend but not yet complete it's correction yet.
Maybank: Long term uptrend but not yet complete it's correction yet.
PBBank: Long term uptrend and it seems possible that the correction is over. Trying to build a base at around 9.50.
RHBCap: Long term uptrend and it seems that it is starting to move up again.

Gold & Pohkong

Okay, everyone knows that gold is shooting through the roof like oil.

My question is, if there is an oil play for KLSE, will there be a play for gold? The counter that has any connection with gold are Pohkong, Tomei, Degem and Yikon. Out of this 4, only Pohkong shows sign of going up. Yikon has been pushed up sky high and now is still dropping, Degem is also dropping while Tomei is flat.

So, is it worth buying Pohkong? The future cannot be predicted, however, I've have taken a position in Pohkong due to its favorable chart.

Start of Year End Rally?

DJI, Nasdaq and S&P500 all gives short term buy signal. This could signal the beginning of year end rally. Will Malaysia follows? Will the foreigners come back and pump up more?

Bull vs Bear (18 Sept 2007)

Bull vs Bear

Short and medium term bears continue to increase. Bulls more or less stay the same.

Oil is at record high now. What will happen to the oil and gas counters?

This are my interpretation based on weekly charts:
Alam: Long term uptrend but under correction mode now.
Deleum: Downtrend, no bottom insight.
Dialog: Long term uptrend but possibly under base building mode now.
Epic: Long term uptrend but under correction mode now.
Kencana: Long term uptrend but under correction mode now.
KNM: Up up and away. In correction mode now.
Muhibbah: Up up and away. In correction mode now.
Oilcorp: In downtrend. No bottom insight yet.
Penergy: Slowly going down.
Perisai: In uptrend. Hard to say since the bulls and the bears are actively fighting. If close above 1.50, uptrend may continue. If not, will go into correction mode. I'm holding a small position in this counter.
Petra: Long term uptrend. In correction mode.
Ramunia: In downtrend.
Ranhill: I'm putting this as O&G. In uptrend. Behavior similar to Perisai.
Sapcres: In long term uptrend but still in correction mode. May have found bottom.
Scomi: In long term uptrend but still in correction mode. May have found bottom.
Tgoffs: Slow and steady uptrend. In base building now.
UMW: I'm putting this as part of O&G. In long term uptrend but in correction mode now.
Waseong: In long term uptrend. Possibly correction is over and under base building now.

So, my conclusion, Perisai and Ranhill should offer some exciting play at the moment.